Sep 1, 2016 - Story of the Week: US job market - Full time vs. Part time employment

This week we are focusing on the situation in the US job market. The headline total NFP employment numbers are followed by the public but the data should be broken down into full time employment and part time employment. This can give us an interesting insight. There are still some opinions that part time employment being still too high etc. I have put together few interesting charts below to see the real trends and what could be behind the numbers…. Before we continue however, let’s look at the reasons why people could be employed part time...

Part time employment figures include people who are part time employed because they couldn't get a full time job or their working hours have been cut...etc. Despite that, they still want to have a full time job they accept the part time offer  (Part time for Economic reasons). The other group contains those who just need more free time to take care of their kids, want to earn some extra money or just want some time for their hobby … (Part time for Non-Economic reasons).

Now the rest is for those who still have doubts about the health of the US Labor market … let the charts below tell you the rest of the story about the full time and part time employment in the US…

Total employment is increasing steadily since 2011:

… and the Full time employment is keeping the pace:

Part time employment stopped growing in 2013 and since then it stays within the range. However, when you look at the chart closely, the trend turned to the downside: 

The number of those who are part time employed for non-economic reasons or if you like, those who don't want to be full time employed are growing rapidly… (please note here the data is only for the last 10 years):

However, the number of people who are “forced” to work part time, despite they would like to find a full time job, is falling strongly, which is offsetting the increase of the Non-Economic Reasons group… (again chart starting in 2006):

Well, after looking above we should believe the Fed when they say the labour market is in a good shape. However, what the Fed should realize is that without doubt these trends shown on the charts will cause sooner or later an increase in wages and this will generate inflation.

Our message... 

Dear Fed, 

There is no more time to postpone the hike and if you will be too late to do so, you will make the same mistake as Mr Greenspan did few years ago. This will be the beginning of another crisis, but this time much bigger one than the last one.

Sincerely Yours,

Mr TechMan

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Aug 30, 2016 - Intraday Trade Idea: GOLD ( XAUUSD ) buying dips...

GOLD ( XAUUSD ) - Intraday: any buyers around ? If yes, I think that's the moment to try longs below 1213 with stop below 1210, targeting 1319/22 area. Tiny risk of 0,25% Good Luck!

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmail.com.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Aug 29, 2016 - Weekly Tech Overview: NZDUSD

Hi All,

As you may already know, currently we are USD bulls but not blind ones. We do believe that patience will pay in a long run. Sometimes it's better to wait to get better chance to buy (USD in this case) or even to try to trade short term in opposite direction (only after finding a real opportunity).

So, we think that NZDUSD is this type of FX pair, where patience will pay off in the long run but still with some intraday possibilities to trade against greenback.

Looks like one more rally is possible here before a sell-off. 

As a bear (and only if you are not in the market yet) I would wait for a rally twds 0,74 (maybe higher) before joining the short side medium/long term.

If you are a bull or short term trader (looking to trade both directions), it could be a good idea to wait for the bottom of the channel on a weekly time-frame.

Chart below should explain my way of thinking:

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmail.com.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Aug 28, 2016 - Weekly Macro 35W

In the coming week we will get plenty of PMI´s and also US employment data. First we will start however with US inflation, more accurately with the indicator mostly watched by the Fed – The Personal Consumption Expenditures. While year on year the Core CPI is already at 2.2% and would exceed the Feds inflation target justifying another rate hike, the Core PCE is only at 1.6% and couldn´t get any closer to the Fed’s target since April...

Last Week

After a boring Monday the European PMIs and New Home Sales from the US were supposed to bring some volatility into the lazy summer markets the next day. While the European PMI data came out mixed on Tuesday, the latest US New Home Sales caused a big surprise coming out at 654 tsd. as we haven`t seen such number since 2008. The construction sector is an important component of US GDP its share on the US GDP is declining and therefore any sign of revival is very important. However, on Wednesday the Existing Home Sales in the US came out worse than expected as failed to hold the 5.5 million level. The increasing Crude inventories surprised the market and caused a drop in WTI testing again the $46.5/barrel, USDCAD didn`t react much on the news despite the dependence of Canada on the oil industry. On Thursday the market focused almost purely on the awaited speech of Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole schedule for Friday and ignored the weak German Ifo Business Climate and the better than expected Durable Goods Orders which increased in the second fastest pace in the last 27 months. On Friday the kind of hypnotized trading mode continued. The GDP estimates from UK and US where in-line with expectations and the market reacted little. The rock`n`roll started after Yellen`s speech. While she said the case for rate hike strengthened in recent months at the end stressed the outlook is still uncertain, and rate hikes are not on pre-set course. The US labor market is close to maximum employment and the FOMC anticipates further strengthening. Regarding Fed Funds Rate, Fed anticipates gradual rate increase. According to Yellen the Board of Fed governors see inflation rising to 2% in the next few years (keep in mind that inflation is measured by Fed by Core PCE Price index) and they are not considering higher inflation or nominal GDP targets. After initial half an hour confusion finally the market translated the message (together with several Fed governor statements during the day) as hawkish. USD strengthened in the last few hours of the trading week 1.1% against EUR and GBP, more than 1.7% against JPY and AUD and 2.1% against NZD.

Next week

Monday (USD, JPY):

On the first day of the week Jackson Hole Symposium will probably resonate all over the marketplace. Also the Personal Consumption Expenditures will be released, which is the Feds inflation indicator. While year on year the Core CPI is already 2.2% the Core PCE is only at 1.6% and no change is expected for Monday but looking at the bullish mood on USD from Friday, any positive surprise can easily cause further dollar strengthening. Before midnight we will take a look at the spending of the Japanese households. The notoriously weak private spending is a key problem of reaching the BoJ`s inflation target.

Tuesday (AUD, GBP, EUR, USD, CAD):

Early morning AUD traders should be ready for some volatility as the Building Approvals missed estimates in the last 2 months. The data is a leading indicator to inflation and growth and will be watched closely. The RBA cut the cash rate on the 3^rd of August by 25 bps and while there is no expectation that the RBA will cut again on the next rate decision scheduled for the 6^th September. During the day plenty of European data will be announced, but early afternoon the Canadian Trade balance numbers will show us if there is any tendency to get into positive territory where the economy was last time in 2008. Later the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment survey will be released. As it´s a leading indicator to US economic activity this could be the data of the day.

Wednesday (NZD, EUR, USD, CAD):

Early morning the ANZ Business Confidence, the result of a survey of about 1500 companies will be released in New Zealand. Could be important as kiwi finished the week with a shooting star on the weekly chart confirming a kind of engulfing pattern (not clear) a few weeks ago however it couldn’t close below key support 0.7200. In the morning we will have important data from Europe, German Retail sales and Unemployment change first, and later the Eurozone flash Inflation could spur the EUR. In the afternoon we will focus on the US ADP employment and 1.5 hour later the Chicago PMI with Pending Home Sales. According to Yellen the US employment is close or at its maximum so there could be a lower reading in ADP but Pending home sales could surprise to the upside as last week´s Existing Home Sales were weaker than expected and the key could be in the number of the unfinished purchase contracts. The Monthly GDP from Canada is expected to be well in positive territory after a negative surprise last month. Later the EIA Crude inventories will affect the CAD as well.

Thursday: (CNY, AUD, EUR, GBP, USD):

It`s going to be a PMI day and even the market will be waiting for the NFP next day, there could be interesting moves. Especially the Chinese Manufacturing PMIs where the 50 point level is the threshold of recession. The official PMI dropped below 50 pts last time but the Markit PMI hold above. Between these two data the Australian Retail sales and Private Capital Expenditures will be released. As the last rate cut had practically zero effect on AUDUSD, this could give us a hint whether there is a chance for further rate cuts in the fall. We will continue the day with the Spanish, UK and US ISM manufacturing PMI, from these the later has the biggest potential to move the markets. The US jobless claims and US Non-Farm Productivity released in between the PMIs could give a hint if Yellen was right on Employment last Friday.

Friday (GBP, CAD, USD):

One of the most watched US number will be released in the afternoon, the US Non-Farm Payrolls. However, in the morning we will have first the UK Construction PMI. Very important if we think there is a bubble in the UK property market. Even though the last reading showed a slight improvement, the trend in the sectors PMI is not encouraging. While in the first half of 2014 the figure was above 55 points each months, in 2015 hardly could reach this number and the average was around 52.5 and this year only twice reach 52… The US NFP is expected to hold but as the economy is near full employment, there could be come negative surprise.

Have a successful week and don’t forget:

Watch you risk and be consistent in your trading!

Mr TechMan

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Aug 28, 2016 - Q2 Earnings – Week 8

The Jackson Hole speech of Janet Yellen was definitely a surprise for markets (stock markets including). In the shadow of this event there are still few companies reporting earnings that may be interesting to see before Friday’s US NFPs:

This Week

Monday

Exor SpA (IT) – estimated EPS 2.40, +165.4% Y/Y; Revenue 141 904 mln

Tuesday

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (CA) – estimated EPS 0.57, +8.1% Y/Y; Revenue 8 834 mln

Bank of Nova Scotia (CA) – estimated EPS 1.48, +0.7% Y/Y; Revenue 6 612 mln

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (CN) – estimated EPS 0.20, …% Y/Y; Revenue … mln

Wednesday

National Bank of Canada (CA) – estimated EPS 1.20, -3.7% Y/Y; Revenue 1 563 mln

Bouygues (FR) – estimated EPS 0.22, -47.5% Y/Y; Revenue 8 160 mln

Illiad SA (FR) – estimated EPS 4.03, +48.2% Y/Y; Revenue 2 285 mln

Thursday

lululemon athletica Inc (CA) – estimated EPS 0.38, +11.2% Y/Y; Revenue 514 mln

Campbell Soup Co – estimated EPS 0.50, +15.8% Y/Y; Revenue 1 695 mln

Pernod Ricard SA (SA) – estimated EPS 1.78, …% Y/Y; Revenue 3 790 mln

Bollore SA (FR) – estimated EPS 0.21, +3.0% Y/Y; Revenue 10 460 mln

Friday

Nothing important

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Aug 24, 2016 - (Trade Idea) Forex: AUDNZD - we are buying this dip

AUDNZD Daily chart is telling the whole story, please check the note on the chart for entry, stop and target levels as well as risk we want to take...

Good Luck

Mr Price Action

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Aug 24, 2016 - Forex: Jackson Hole and Yellen - Charts

As Mr Hawk perfectly painted the macro picture here , we are USD bullish into Jackson Hole and  NFP next week.

Before we start, would like to point out here, we don't want to trade USD blindly. We do have a plan, we know where we want to open, where we want to exit and we know what kind of the risk we want to take... in advance.

So, let's check few charts and discuss possible scenario ( how we would like to trade it / what has to happen ) :

 1. First important thing: we see some room for USD weakness and we would like to see that before Friday

DXY - it's an update to our Weekly Tech Overview ( please check here )

EURUSD daily chart - market is re-testing broken trend line. The best scenario would be stop hunting above 1,1350+. So, we are looking to sell rallies towards 1,1350/1,1450. Weekly close above 1,1450 will cancel the bearish scenario.

USDJPY weekly chart - no change in our view, we are still bullish here even we have been stopped out at entry level on our Trade Idea here

AUDUSD weekly chart - no change to our view we presented here. The only thing is that bulls are already tired. So, we do have two possibilities here: 1. TL on weekly will be too much for bulls or 2. bulls will go higher and eventually will test 0,80 before sell-off.

GOLD ( XAUUSD ) - daily charts, we are looking to sell. Close above 1380/1400 will invalidate the bearish scenario.

Good Luck All

Mr Price Action

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Aug 23, 2016 - September 2016 Event Calendar

September 2016 Event Calendar

As the Olympics are over, the impeachment trial against suspended Brazilian president Rousseff can start. But this one is not that important in Sep when looking at the below:

Aug 26 – Yellen speaking in Jackson Hole (Symposium Sep 25-27)

Aug 31/Sep 1 – G20 FinMin and Central bankers meeting

Sep 2 – US NFPs

Sep 4-5 – G20 meeting in China (first ever)

Sep 7 – BoC meeting

Sep 8 – ECB meeting

Sep 9-10 – informal EU Economic and FinMin meeting

Sep 15 – BoE meeting

Sep 16 – EU Summit in Bratislava to discuss Brexit + other topics

Sep 20-21 – BoJ (a complete assessment of monetary policy and further stimulus measures are expected)

Sep 20-21 – FOMC meeting + Economic projections + press conference

Sep 26-28 – OPEC meeting to discuss potential production freeze

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Aug 22, 2016 - Jackson Hole coming, but what about the rate hike…?

Jackson Hole coming, but what about the rate hike…?

As the ongoing trust in Fed is close to zero, we may eventually see a bit of nervousness before Friday. We may spot some unwinding of the big position and abrupt moves, as the market clearly doesn’t know what to think or expect from Yellen. All of that despite pretty hawkish comments from Dudley and Williams last week, supported by Fisher over the weekend. This provides a short-term strength for USD at the moment.

So what’s the bet?

Looking at 4 rate hikes? This one is off…

Dec hike, looking like…

Oct hike, Fed hurry up before US elections…

Sep hike, well, the credibility of the Fed and its officials may increase by an inch from zero…

Questions

When we look at the history, Fed is cutting the rates when stock market is really going down. But where it is now? Printing new historical highs…, so it is the time to raise rates, right?

What about housing market? Peaking again…A time to raise rates, right?

What about USD? For some reason it is still not clearly moving higher…Why?

Economy and job market getting better, GDP growth is accelerating and with inflation getting close to Fed targets…Hiking?

Investments to recover after US elections, the effects of stronger USD to fade away…

Productivity slowdown? As Fisher said, we don’t know to measure it properly…

Slowdown in China, Brexit aftermath, debt issues in Europe, US elections risks? Worth to consider…

All of these are good questions but very likely, Yellen will not provide us with any clear signal. Has she ever?

Our take

We see two hikes this year and the first one will likely come already in Sep, so there will be some time for dust to settle before US elections. For those who see the same, the long USD, underweight or short US 10yr or 30yr Treasuries, and short silver and gold, may be the right trade. The question of regaining a bit of trust of market participants in predictability and communication ability of Fed officials will be tested again.

The second hike in Dec will be really data dependent in the light of results of US presidential elections of course.

Risks

Data, data and again data. Yellen at Jackson Hole will again point to data dependency (US NFPs are on Sep 2 while FOMC on Sep 21).

From political perspective the Brexit vote shock aftermath or US elections risks are also taken into account but at the moment, the risks related to US elections, seem to be bit ignored by bond markets. But what about the Fed?

All in all, the Jackson Hole speech may be again a non-event as it was 9 times out of last 10 speeches, apart from the one in 2010, when Bernanke announced the QE2 preparation.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Aug 21, 2016 - Q2 Earnings – Week 7

Q2 Earnings – Week 7

Still few companies to check:

Last Week

Cisco Systems Inc – above expectations with the cloud of slashing 7% of workforce

Deere & Co – a much smaller decline in profit and cost cutting pleased the market

This Week

Monday

Nothing important

Tuesday

Best Buy Co Inc – estimated EPS 0.43, -12.7% Y/Y; Revenue 8 391 mln

PetroChina Co Ltd (CN) – estimated EPS 0.03, -70.0% Y/Y; Revenue 407 425 mln

Bank of Montreal (CA) – estimated EPS 1.81, -2.5% Y/Y; Revenue 5 008 mln

Wednesday

Wesfarmers Ltd (AU) – estimated EPS 0.84, -11.6% Y/Y; Revenue 32 379 mln

CNOOC Ltd (CN) – estimated EPS -0.08, -123.3% Y/Y; Revenue 68 197 mln

Royal Bank of Canada (CA) – estimated EPS 1.71, +1.6% Y/Y; Revenue 9 710 mln

Carillion Plc (GB) – estimated EPS 0.34, -1.7% Y/Y; Revenue 4 387 mln

Quantas Airways Ltd (AU) – estimated EPS 0.21, -14.3% Y/Y; Revenue 7 876 mln

HP Inc – estimated EPS 0.44, -50.5% Y/Y; Revenue 11 447 mln

Glencore Plc (CH) – estimated EPS 0.01, -83.8% Y/Y; Revenue 77 325 mln

Thursday

Dollar General Corp – estimated EPS 1.09, +14.7% Y/Y; Revenue 5 498 mln

Dollar Tree Inc – estimated EPS 0.74, +9.7% Y/Y; Revenue 5 094 mln

Vivendi SA (FR) – estimated EPS 0.17, +16.2% Y/Y; Revenue 2 653 mln

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (NL) – estimated EPS 0.30, +24.0% Y/Y; Revenue 10 514 mln

Woolworths Ltd (AU) – estimated EPS 0.54, -42.5% Y/Y; Revenue 27 967 mln

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CA) – estimated EPS 2.34, -4.5% Y/Y; Revenue 3 717 mln

China Construction Bank Corp (CN) – estimated EPS 0.23, -11.5% Y/Y; Revenue … mln

Toronto-Dominion Bank (CA) – estimated EPS 1.21, +0.9% Y/Y; Revenue 7 880 mln

Medtronic Plc – estimated EPS 1.01, -0.8% Y/Y; Revenue 7 182 mln

CRH Plc (IE) – estimated EPS 0.30, +676.9% Y/Y; Revenue 12 277 mln

Friday

Nothing important

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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(Trade Idea) Forex: USDJPY buying dips ... (Updated 22.08.2016)

UPDATE:
Stop Loss order has been moved to entry level... still targeting top of the channel, Good Luck

USDJPY - we are trading at the very bottom of the channel on daily chart ( please check the chart below ). So from technical perspective at least bounce could be in place twds top of that channel. Dollar also get data support ( Core CPI again above 2% ) and FED officials support. So taking all of the above into consideration we are buying the pair on dips ( between 100,20 and 99,80 ) with stop 20 pips below todays low and targeting top of the channel. Risk / Reward is on our side.

Good Luck

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Q2 Earnings – Week 6

 Q2 Earnings – Week 6

There are few more companies of importance reporting for Q2 left, so let’s see what they can show us:

This Week

Tuesday

Home Depot Inc – estimated EPS 1.97, +15.1% Y/Y; Revenue 26 494 mln

BHP Billiton Ltd (AU) – estimated EPS 0.11, -74.1% Y/Y; Revenue 15 619 mln

  

Wednesday

Lowe’s Cos Inc – estimated EPS 1.42, +18.0% Y/Y; Revenue 18 368 mln

Staples Inc – estimated EPS 0.12, +0.0% Y/Y; Revenue 4 767 mln

ABN AMRO Group NV (NL) – estimated EPS 0.55, …% Y/Y; Revenue 2 194 mln

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (AU) – estimated EPS 0.21, -39.1% Y/Y; Revenue 8 363 mln

Balfour Beatty PLC (GB) – estimated EPS 0.11, +155.8% Y/Y; Revenue 7 417 mln

Cisco Systems Inc – estimated EPS 0.60, +1.5% Y/Y; Revenue 12 570 mln

Thursday

Gap Inc – estimated EPS 0.59, -8.4% Y/Y; Revenue 3 842 mln

Nestle SA (CH) – estimated EPS 1.59, +6.8% Y/Y; Revenue 43 175 mln

Wal-Mart Stores Inc – estimated EPS 1.02, -5.7% Y/Y; Revenue 120 287 mln

Raiffeisen Bank International (AT) – estimated EPS 0.55, -32.3% Y/Y; Revenue 1 161 mln

In the recent EU banking stress test Raiffeisen was flagged with few others as the one that would need more capital during stress times. Let’s see what management will say about latest results, capital adequacy and future plans.

Friday

Deere & Co – estimated EPS 0.94, -38.4% Y/Y; Revenue 6 045 mln

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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(Video) Dax weekly - market update - 2016 08 07

Hi, it's an update to our DAX weekly overview ( week 24 ). Market is testing top of the channel and looks bearish for us. Please check the video below where I discuss few possible trade scenarios both bullish and bearish from long term and short term perspective. Enjoy!

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Weekly Macro Overview 32W

This week’s Macro Overview is a little shorter due to holidays. We saw 2 rate cuts in the Commonwealth last week, both well expected. The first came from Royal Bank of Australia on Tuesday and the later from the Bank of England on Thursday. Traders were also watching the US employment data in the second half of the week, which were in general better than expected pushing the USD higher.

Monday:

It was a PMI day but the traders mostly didn’t get what they were expecting. The Chinese numbers were rather mixed and the Spanish, UK and US numbers were worse than expected.

Tuesday:

Tuesday early morning the RBA cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps. After the initial depreciation of AUD the traders reversed the direction as the wording of the Rate Statement suggested this could be the end of the easing. The AUDUSD rallied above 0.7600. Later in the morning the UK construction sector PMI was better than expected. In the afternoon the US PCE Price Index came out at 0.1% vs previous 0.2% and the unchanged Personal Spending couldn’t help the dollar which reached 1.1200.

Wednesday:

After the boring morning with only an unchanged UK services PMI we had ADP employment from the US. The improving data (also upward revision of the last figures) gave us a hint that the NFP Friday won’t be as low as expected. The dollar started the appreciation and this was probably the key moment of the week however, the Friday’s confirmation was still needed to let the dollar bulls run.

Thursday:

The worse than expected Australian Retail Sales didn’t really stop the bulls but managed to slow down the momentum after the Tuesday disappointing Rate Statement. The BoE cut the key rate as expected by 25 bps, also increasing the Asset purchase by GBP 60 bln, raising the questions whether this step wasn’t premature. The GBPUSD fell 200 bps in reaction to Carney’s speech half an hour later. In the afternoon, the US jobless claims came out more or less in-line with expectations and with muted reaction prior to US NFPs on Friday.

Friday:

After a sleepy morning the awaited job data caused the USD strengthening around 100 points against most of its peers despite the unchanged Unemployment Rate. The NFPs were worse than the previous (which was revised to the upside) but was much better than expected. Also the Average Earnings improved by 0.3% vs. forecasted 0.2% and previous 0.1%, what creates a better ground for an increase of the inflation.

Next week

Monday:

The only thing worth to watch is the Chinese trade balance, but not much of a change is expected. Maybe later the Canadian housing data could give some hint which direction the loonie will take.

Tuesday:

During Tokyo session, the Chinese inflation data can spur some volatility and later in the European session, the UK manufacturing will give us some hint, regarding the impact of the Brexit vote to the British economy. In the afternoon keep an eye on US job market data.

Wednesday:

The JOLTS job openings from the US will be released in the afternoon. They are expected to support the last week’s improvement in NFPs. The kiwi traders should be vigilant in the evening, as RBNZ may follow the RBA and cut the benchmark rate.

Thursday:

The regular US jobless claims and the New Zealand retail sales could be the only important data but don’t expect too much volatility around unless there is a huge surprise.

Friday:

Early in the morning, the Chinese Industrial production will be released with no change expected. We have also flash GDP from Europe later in the morning (Eurozone and Germany) which may have impact mainly on EUR crosses. In the afternoon, the Retail sales data and PPI are expected to be released in the US (expecting all worse than the previous set of data). However, given the rejection of the resistance in EURUSD (former support of the uptrend line) last week, a positive outcome could give a nice boost to the dollar bulls.

Have a successful week and don’t forget:

Watch you risk and be consistent in your trading!

Mr. TechMan

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Q2 Earnings – Week 5

Q2 Earnings – Week 5

We are coming to the end of Q2 earnings season as the most of US companies have already reported while there are still some international names to come. This week will be primarily about retailers and confidence of retail consumers to spend money.

Last Week

Pfizer Inc – was out with better than expected figures but the revenue coming from drugs protected by patents disappointed

Tesla Motors Inc – published Q2 loss on the back of huge investments related to increasing the production of Model S and X cars that is still not covered by rising sales yet

For more on Tesla and SolarCity you can check our Trade idea: http://landoftrading.blogspot.sk/2016/07/trade-idea-tesla-short.html

Twenty-First Century Fox Inc – better on very good revenue from advertising

Humana Inc – smaller profit as the company is offsetting losses from Obamacare activities

Kraft Heinz Co – beating expectations and rising profit four times. Actually, the cost cutting and commodity prices being very low helped.

Manulife Financial Corp (CA) – disappointed and informed about a share buy-back and potential charge of CAD 500 mln

BCE Inc (CA) – above expectations on higher wireless subscribers

Magna International Inc (CA) – enjoying the rising demand for cars in North America and Europe, thus boosting profits

Bombardier Inc (CA) – the recent “support” from Province of Quebec and awaited alike approach from Government of Canada are still not sufficient as the demand for business jets is weak

Berkshire Hathaway Inc – profits up 25% on positive insurance and investments activities

This Week

Monday

Tyson Foods Inc – estimated EPS 1.06, +32.4% Y/Y; Revenue 9 329 mln

Are lower commodity prices and good supply still positive for business?

Allergan PLC – estimated EPS 3.34, -24.3% Y/Y; Revenue 4 086 mln

One thing are earnings, the other is the fresh USD 40.5 bln of cash from the sale of part of its business (to Teva Pharmaceuticals) sitting on company books. A potential acquisition of Biogen Inc where the company may compete with Merck & Co Inc may be a good use of funds.

Computer Sciences Corp – estimated EPS 0.45, -59.4% Y/Y; Revenue 1 909 mln

Tuesday

Bridgestone Corp (JP) – estimated EPS 89.52, -4.0% Y/Y; Revenue 929 244 mln

Charter Communications Inc – estimated EPS 0.15, +152.3% Y/Y; Revenue 9 474 mln

Walt Disney Co – estimated EPS 1.61, +10.8% Y/Y; Revenue 14 158 mln

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc – estimated EPS 1.48, -42.0% Y/Y; Revenue 2 468 mln

How to handle the market confidence with falling numbers?

Dai Nipon Printing Co Ltd (JP) – estimated EPS 51.10, -3.8% Y/Y; Revenue 1 475 333 mln

Daikin Industries Ltd (JP) – estimated EPS 474.33, +1.1% Y/Y; Revenue 2 057 942 mln

SolarCity Corp – estimated EPS -2.53, -57.1% Y/Y; Revenue 147 mln

Recently, the company shareholders accepted the USD 2.6 bln take over from Tesla but the key risks in slowing demand, lower support credits or risk of potential changes to green energy support, if Republican candidate wins November presidential elections, are still present.

voestalpine AG (AT) – estimated EPS 0.56, -38.3% Y/Y; Revenue 2 748 mln

SFR Group SA (FR) – estimated EPS 1.22, -23.8% Y/Y; Revenue 10 800 mln

CEZ AS (CZ) – estimated EPS 16.79, +14.1% Y/Y; Revenue 49 083 mln

Exelon Corp – estimated EPS 0.56, -5.1% Y/Y; Revenue 6 966 mln

Wednesday

Aramark – estimated EPS 0.32, 10.0% Y/Y; Revenue 3 580 mln

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd – estimated EPS 0.74, -15.1% Y/Y; Revenue 953 mln

Ralph Lauren Corp – estimated EPS 0.89, -18.3% Y/Y; Revenue 1 530 mln

OMV AG (AT) – estimated EPS 0.51, -53.8% Y/Y; Revenue 4 356 mln

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (AU) – estimated EPS 2.70, -3.0% Y/Y; Revenue 12 535 mln

Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Holdings (JP) – estimated EPS 365.81, -7.2% Y/Y; Revenue 3 292 724 mln

Sun Life Financial Inc (CA) – estimated EPS 0.92, -8.0% Y/Y; Revenue 7 412 mln

Adecco Group AG (CH) – estimated EPS 1.91, +78.5% Y/Y; Revenue 5 687 mln

G4S PLC (GB) – estimated EPS 0.07, +50.0% Y/Y; Revenue 3 436 mln

Avnet Inc – estimated EPS 0.88, 23.8% Y/Y; Revenue 6 212 mln

Novozymes A/S (DK) – estimated EPS 2.52, +13.5% Y/Y; Revenue 3 554 mln

E.ON SE (DE) – estimated EPS 0.06, -25.9% Y/Y; Revenue … mln

Thursday

Alibaba Group Holdings Inc (CN) – estimated EPS 0.63, …% Y/Y; Revenue … mln

The market is expecting a 50% jump in revenue but the recent investments may put some pressure on profitability.

Kohl’s Inc – estimated EPS 1.04, -3.3% Y/Y; Revenue 4 165 mln

Macy’s Inc – estimated EPS 0.45, -30.2% Y/Y; Revenue 5 750 mln

Rising consumer appetite might have helped the company’s figures.

Nordstrom Inc – estimated EPS 0.56, -40.2% Y/Y; Revenue 3 660 mln

TUI AG (DE) – estimated EPS 0.25, +84.2% Y/Y; Revenue 5 060 mln

Henkel AG & Co KGaA (DE) – estimated EPS 1.31, -21.4% Y/Y; Revenue 4 710 mln

Petroleo Brasileiro SA (BR) – estimated EPS 0.44, …% Y/Y; Revenue 77 400 mln

We may see some signs of improved cash-flow and debt numbers.

Aegon NV (NL) – estimated EPS 0.06, -68.8% Y/Y; Revenue … mln

Banco do Brasil SA (BR) – estimated EPS 0.72, -32.9% Y/Y; Revenue 23 400 mln

KBC Group NV (BE) – estimated EPS 1.38, -13.8% Y/Y; Revenue 1 812 mln

Swiss Life Holding AG (CH) – estimated EPS 14.33, -7.4% Y/Y; Revenue … mln

Zurich Insurance Group AG (CH) – estimated EPS 5.06, -7.8% Y/Y; Revenue … mln

NVIDIA Corp – estimated EPS 0.48, -42.1% Y/Y; Revenue 1 353 mln

Will see how positively the re-focus from declining PC production to gaming effected company.

thyssenkrupp AG (DE) – estimated EPS 0.27, -37.7% Y/Y; Revenue 10 254 mln

China Mobile Ltd (CN) – estimated EPS 1.71, …% Y/Y; Revenue 190 828 mln

Deutsche Telecom AG (DE) – estimated EPS 0.19, -20.8% Y/Y; Revenue 17 926 mln

Telstra Corp Ltd (AU) – estimated EPS 0.21, +16.1% Y/Y; Revenue 14 136 mln

RWE AG (DE) – estimated EPS 0.99, -45.8% Y/Y; Revenue 45 224 mln

Friday

JC Penney Co Inc – estimated EPS -0.14, +65.4% Y/Y; Revenue 2 929 mln

Metro Inc (CA) – estimated EPS 0.73, +10.9% Y/Y; Revenue 3 984 mln

Brookfield Asset Management Inc (CA) – estimated EPS 0.23, -62.9% Y/Y; Revenue 4 779 mln

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings (JP) – estimated EPS 315.71, +5.7% Y/Y; Revenue 5 288 930 mln.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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