Nov 29, 2017 - Market Update (OPEC day but will Russia, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria join? Preliminary Brexit bill EUR 50 bln, Gold attacking 1300 but..., EU to freeze funding for tax heavens, to prepare new black/grey lists, Softbank looking to buy Uber shares at 30% discount, Bitcoin a threat to global economy?)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

OPEC day today with not only oil but energy stocks in focus

NoKo threating with new missile test again

But no reaction from the markets (a sign that conflict escalation is low for the time being)

Powell with dovish tilt, no change to rate path

HFs having hard time to earn money from bond and FX trading

And may move over to strategies of flattening of US yield curve and USD weakness next year

Brexit – rumours about preliminary exit bill agreement (UK agreed to pay much of EU bill, likely EUR 50 bln)

GBP on a stronger foot today

Senate vote on tax bill already on Thursday

EU to freeze funding for tax heavens, new black and grey list coming

Britain, Malta and Netherlands used for aggressive tax planning

Bitcoin above 10k (up 940% in 2017)

Not threatening the world economy by its seize but creating a psychological bubble

Equities

Goldman Sachs interested in metals trading arm of Scotiabank (USD 1 bln)

Softbank looking to buy Uber shares at 30% discount

Royal Dutch Shell partnering with car producers in installing super-fast chargers in Europe

Oil majors moving aggressively to shale 

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

It's Time to Get Out of Emerging Asian Currencies: LGT  link  

Slower growth in China, U.S. tax reform are both set to weigh

Higher interest rates are already largely priced in

EURUSD

Resistance 1.1886 (61.8%)

Support 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo/10 DMA). 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014/15 decline)

USDJPY

Support 111.02 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 111.58 (100 DMA), 111.68 (200 DMA), 111.80 (10 DMA), 111.89 (38.2% Fibo)

Gold

Getting some support from NoKo provocations but needs more JPY strength to move higher

Dowside is limited on geopolitical and economic risks

Not able to break 1300 (Fibo, psychological resistance)

Next resistance 1306, 1313, 1321 (23.6% Fibo)

Support 1288 (10 DM), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1283-85 (50/100 DMA)

Weekly Commodity: Oil bulls supported by Canadian supply disruption, Thursday OPEC meeting in focus  link

Data/events

OPEC meeting – to discuss cut extension and duration

Is Russia on the same page? As many independent producers may not necessarily obey the cuts

What about Iraq, Libya, Nigeria as they keep pumping

US inventories up while shale oil production rising

ECB’s Constancio (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen hearing (1500 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann (1700 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1745 GMT)

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Dec 21 – BoJ

Dec 21 – Catalonia elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 28, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Oil bulls supported by Canadian supply disruption, Thursday OPEC meeting in focus

The last week was rather quiet due to Thanksgiving but we had some interesting moves in the commodity space due to unexpected events. First of all the tired oil bulls got some support from the Canadian supply disruption while the grain market was kept low due to huge ending stocks and good weather forecast from South America. We saw also a revival of the industrial metals on South American mine strikes and drop in LME stocks.

After the news that TransCanada will reduce supply by 85% for November due to pipeline leak the bulls tried another run and pushed WTI to new highs while reaction on Brent was subdued. The Spread between the two dropped below 5$ for a day but bounced back quickly. The market is watching OPEC meeting in Vienna this week and the final agreement about the extension of the production cut. The key player is Russia this time as showed reluctance to extend the deal however market priced in 6-9 month extension. If the cartel and Russia fails to agree on this at least, oil may see a significant drop, while the upside potential is limited by already large speculative long and potential shale hedging activity.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent.

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016.

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Nov 24, 2017 - Market Update (Quiet unless..., Chinese stocks steady after two day selloff, Saudis opening local stock market for small foreign funds, May in Brussels at Brexit grilling party, Ireland to veto border but government may collapse first, Flying lifts from Thyssenkrupp, USDJPY through 111.00 towards 110.00 or back to 112.50?, GBPUSD hitting the resistance at 1.3335)

Short recap

Asian with wake up call from China

Europe opening flat to higher

FOMC and ECB Minutes left the market without any illusions

Fed likely to be more dovish, ECB still on split over QE end

Germany – Socialists under strong pressure to form government

France – US corporates like Macron story, likely to increase investments in FR

Brexit – May meeting Tusk in Brussels today

Likely to double Brexit bill

Ireland asking for a written commitment from UK on hard border with Northern Ireland

Otherwise may veto UK Brexit talks progress

Irish government about to collapse

GBPUSD chart below..

Equities

Trading likely in a quiet mode

Chinese equities steady after the sell off last two days

Correction likely to continue

Bond market also experiencing the retreat

Saudi Arabia to allow small foreign funds to invest in local stocks

Thyssenkrupp enjoying high demand for next-generation lifts and car components

A Decade Later: What $1K Invested in These Stocks is Worth Today  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

USDJPY

Risk at lower side as Fed may be more dovish than market may have thought

Bids sitting above 111.00

Bearish view would be confirmed by a close below 111.00

What will open focus at support around 110.00 level (61.8% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Be aware of the difficulty to break below 111.00, if not broken we can refocus back towards 112.50

If it is the case, the bearish bias likely to change to bullish one as Ichimoku shows

Resistance around 111.65/70 (100 & 200 DMA), 111.90 (38.2% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Source: Saxo Bank

GBPUSD

Holding above 1.3250 (50 DMA), 1.3224 (10 DMA)

1.3137 (100 DMA) and ascending trendline (strong support)

Resistance at 1.3335 but lets watch the outcome of May-Tusk meeting

Dec 4 a deadline for preparation for Dec 14-15 EU Summit

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

US bond trading closed, stocks open half day (closing at 1800 GMT)

May visiting Brussels

Eastern Partnership Summint in Brussels – Ukraine a part of Schengen?

ECB’s Coeure (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Nouy (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1230 GMT)

ECB’s Galhau (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1815 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting – to discuss cut extension and duration

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 22, 2017 - Market Update (US rate curve flattening on corporate and pension fund investors interest, Hong Kong above 30 000, US not comfortable with free and open internet, USDJPY condemned to 112.00-50 range ahead of US/JP holidays, Enel going digital, RBC too big to fail since yesterday, If early elections in Germany not before end of Q1 2018)

Short recap

Asian in green

Europe opening higher

If new elections in Germany, not before end of Q1 2018

Thus prolonging the uncertainty but EUR is indifferent, as it was the case with some other coalition talks in EU

US to take down the free and open internet

Giving the service providers possibility to choose what content the users will access

Lacklustre trading ahead of US and JP holidays

Equities

Hong Kong index breaching 30 000 on continuation of risk and strong earnings

Enel increasing spending on digital networks to ready for end user intelligent solutions

RBC on a global list of too big to fail, thus will need to hold extra capital (+1%)

Rio Tinto, Wealth Minerals and GSR Capital to bid for SQM that is a lithium producer

EU digital tax still an issue for some EU states

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36%

US yield curve keeps flattening what is a very interesting development we have pointed to recently

Very likely it is related to US tax reform implications as pension funds load the bonds due to:

Corporates increasing the funding of pension schemes before next year further rise in US rates

And pension fund investors also making contributions as they may lose some tax exemptions next year with new reform in place

10-yr Bund yield at 0.34%

Situation in Turkey not helping sovereign and bank bonds

As investors prefer safer assets

EURUSD

German politics a focus

Support around 1.1710, 1.1734 (10 DMA)

Resistance range 1.1755/60/65 where are 55 & 100 DMA, 38.2% Fibo and yesterday’s high

USDJPY

Lower US yields and yield flattening pushing JPY higher

Decent offers seen above 112.50 with expiring options

112.44 (100 HMA) 112.47 (55 DMA)

Bids sitting at 112.00 with USD 1.4 bln option expiring with strike at this level

Support also from 100 & 200 DMA (around 111.70 level) and 111.90 (38.2% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB Governing Council (no interest rate announcement)

FOMC Minutes

Thu

ECB Minutes

US Thanksgiving – markets closed

JP Labour Thanksgiving day

Fri

US bond trading closed, stocks open half day

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 21, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Crude trader’s focus back on fundamentals, oversupply

After a week of increased uncertainty following the anticorruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia, the focus is re-shifting toward fundamentals again. A Tuesday sell-off was triggered by the IEA monthly report where the agency reduced its’ global demand forecast by around 100k bpd in contrary to the last OPEC Monthly report from a day earlier. The bears got some additional support in the evening from the increased oil inventories reported by API. The next day the official government data confirmed the oil stock accumulation but didn’t cause additional selling as the main damage was done on Tuesday.

Although the crude jumped up 2.6% on the last trading day of the week, further rally will need some geopolitical support as the fundamentals seems to be improving. The US oil production hit new multi month record at 9.65 mil bpd and it seems the crude output is on its way to reach 10 mil bpd in a few months time. Additional pressure came from Russia with its wavering support for the extension of the OPEC production curb deal. The cartel has a schedule meeting on 30th November where the member states should decide whether to extend the agreement beyond March 2018.

The next important oil related reports are:

Tuesday – EIA Monthly Energy Review and API weekly oil stocks and refinery operations

Wednesday – EIA weekly petroleum status report

For the technical view please check the weekly WTI chart:

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Nov 20, 2017 - Market Update (No Jamaica in Germany, Leadership in EU on pause, Risk taking at record levels, Mugabe still in but already out, Norwegians not counting on oil/gas, EURUSD to keep hawkish tone above 1.1675-1700 zone, Gold to test medium-term resistance at 1306)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

No Jamaica coalition in Germany – Merkel can still form a minority government

No history of minority government or new election creating more uncertainty

Merkel to meet president, German leadership in EU on pause

What worked in difficult 2000s and 2010s years not working anymore

Pragmatism, conservativism and stability to be replaced

Zimbabwe’s Mugabe not willing to resign yesterday

But a new deal is on the table with full immunity

Goldman Sachs sees Fed hiking 4 times in 2018

Lloyd Blankefein was heard that many would like to have confirming Brexit vote

Excessive risk taking at record level

‘Irrational Exuberance’ May Rule the Roost in Stock Markets  link

BAML fund-manager survey shows risk taking at all-time high

Investors see stocks as overvalued but bullish on growth

Equities

Volkswagen taking it seriously and investing EUR 23 bln in development

Apple not on time with smart speaker HomePod for Christmas

Tesla short of cash soon to ask for new money

To keep financing trucks, roadster and acceleration of production

Norway sovereign wealth fund to remove oil and gas companies

From its benchmark and cut their holdings

S&P 500

Resistance 2581 (10 DMA), 2589, 2597-2600

Support 2554 (23.6% Fibo), 2549, 2544

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.36%

EURUSD

Support area 1.1675-1700, 1.1710 (200 HMA),1.1714 (high from Aug 2015), 1.1747 (100 DMA)

Resistance 1.1759 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1771 (50 DMA), 1.1778 (55 HMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

US tax reform, Germany and USD in play

Top range 1306 level needs to be taken off decisively

In order to break medium-term resistance

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1306

Support 1287 (50 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1280 (100 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Nowotny (1145 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1215 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1400 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1415 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1600 GMT)

EU Council meeting

CEE bankers conference

Wed

ECB Governing Council (no interest rate announcement)

FOMC Minutes

Thu

ECB Minutes

US Thanksgiving – markets closed

Fri

US bond trading close, stocks open halfday

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 15, 2017 - Story of the Week: Comparing old and new economy...General Electric and Tesla

As there are lots of questions about what’s next in equity space let’s compare stocks from old and new economy – GE and Tesla.

General Electric – a time to buy after almost 50% decline from 2016 peak and recent fall?

Still on the weak side as investors digest the overhaul plans with question marks about the success

Aligning dividend payout to cash flow generation

To cut underperforming divisions (USD 20 bln), long-term bonuses

To focus on aviation, healthcare and renewable energy equipment

More in article: General Electric Slashes Its Dividend 50% As CEO Flannery Resets Ailing Conglomerate  link

General Electric Cuts Dividend by Half and Slashes Profit Goals  link

GE weekly – with decline of 46% from 2016 peak

Source: Saxo Bank

GE daily – decline of 14% over the last two sessions after CEO announce dividend cut and overhaul of the business

Source: Saxo Bank 

Tesla – a short candidate on a strong history of cash burning?

Financial performance deteriorates - structural unprofitability likely

Most cash raised recently is already burnt - next equity sale looms

Institutional ownership declines - distribution continues

Management churn accelerates - corporate culture looks damaged

Only the story matters - the stock remains a trade vehicle

More in article: Tesla Approaches Terminal Decline  link

Tesla weekly – up 101% from 2016 low

Source: Saxo Bank

Tesla daily – a 21% decline from Sep 2017 peak

Source: Saxo Bank

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 15, 2017 - Market Update (Xi to visit NoKo one day, Mohammed El-Erian a new Fed vice-chair?, Stocks not comfortable with no new catalyst, GE story, Airbus – a new USD 40 bln order?, Volkswagen and police/tax authorities again, Loxo partnering with Bayer, US yield curve flattening despite 2-yr yield hitting a 9-yr high, EURUSD - forget about H&S, looking at 1.1900, USDJPY to dip below 112.00)

Short recap

Asia in red but BoJ active in ETF buying

Europe opening lower

Special envoy from China heading to NoKo on Nov 17

Central bankers talking about an end of easy money

Mohammed El-Erian a new Fed vice-chair?

Risk bubbles rising across EMs:

Military taking over in Zimbabwe, where is Mugabe?

Venezuela defaulting, South Africa to be downgraded

Equities

Stocks not comfortable with no new catalyst, GE story

And getting nervous about upcoming Fed tightening

Airbus – a new USD 40 bln order for 400 planes coming?

Volkswagen having issues with police and tax authorities

Loxo Oncology entering into collaboration with Bayer (USD 1.6 bln)

Biotech firms focusing on using bacteria in cancer research

Bombardier signing a USD 1.1 bln deal with EgyptAir

Earnings

Cisco – expecting decline in revenue from traditional products

Target

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36%

2-yr Notes touched a 9-yr high but the yield curve keeps flattening

10-yr Bund yield at 0.39%

EURUSD

Huge H&S reversal is over after breaking 1.1700

Decisive break of 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1649 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Also broke 1.1736 (100 DMA) 1.1785 (50 DMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo)

Next resistance Oct highs and 1.1886 (61.8% Fibo)

 Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Resistance at 113.65 (10 DMA), 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo),

Support at 112.47 (50 DMA)

Closing below 23.6% Fibo will expose 111.90 (38.2% Fibo), 111.76 (200 DMA) and 111.72 (100 DMA)

Data/events

EU General Affairs Council meeting

Fed’s Evans (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (2110 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 14, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Did the Crude bulls run too far?

After the spectacular rally since September crude bulls are taking a brake recently. The main reasons of the rally were partially old news about the extension of OPEC and Non-OPEC production cut beyond March 2018. The geopolitical tension on the Middle East added further support to the bulls and the spread between the Brent and WTI widened to over 7$. Another strong support that helped the market rally were news about dropping inventories. However some analysts started to question this drop, especially the one reported from the Middle East.

Now with elevated speculative positioning where net longs are close to records seems that traders lost confidence a little. We have ahead this weekly oil reports and Monthly oil report from IEA and later the month from EIA which will be closely watched. However be aware of the fact that geopolitical tension could fuel a rally far beyond the levels that fundamentals would justify.

Technically WTI seems to have completed the 5th wave (or could be close to the end) and the 38.2% of Fibonacci level seems to be a good reason for a correction. I expect the prices to retrace somewhat toward the $52.50 support and then we will see if prices rally one more time ahead of a deeper correction.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 13, 2017 - Market Update (May on the way out, Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal/no deal, Alibaba on fire with global Singles' Day sales, Uber heading to IPO with Softbank getting closer to the deal, US inflation to show direction for yields, EURUSD back to range 1.1570/1.1670, Gold - long liquidation below 1280 level?)

Short recap

Asia in red as investors becoming cautious on ability of US lawmakers to work out the tax reform

Europe opening higher

South China Sea disputes on again

Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal

As May is under enormous pressure from her own political party to step down

While EU made it clear that UK needs to honor its commitments (in other words how much they will pay for divorce)

Meanwhile EU getting ready for no agreement with UK

As UK not open to offer any new divorce figure

Equities

Alibaba on fire with Singles’ Day sales up 39% y/y hitting USD 25 bln globally

Uber heading to IPO at certain point with Softbank getting closer to company with USD 10 bln deal

PSA to build cars in Algeria

Visa sees a cut in UK spending

Soros, Tepper, Einhorn, Icahn to issue a regulatory fillings Mon/Tue

A nice reading that will show the changes their stock/asset holdings

Earnings

Home Depot, Tencent, Cisco, Applied Materials, Target, Best Buy, Wal-Mart

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39% vs 2.34% on Friday morning

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% vs 0.37% on Friday morning

US CPI & US Retail sales on Wed two of last major data ahead of Dec Fed hike decision

Especially inflation will have significant impact on yields

EURUSD

Still consolidating, no decision on H&S

Consolidating above 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1623 (200 HMA), 1.16256 (10 DMA)

And below 1.1649 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

What’s next? Any continuation of 1.1570-1.1670 range?

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Bids sitting below 113.25, larger seen at/below 113.00

Offers seen ahead of 114.00 with stops above

Resistance at 113.79 (10 DMA), 114.40/50

Support at 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Gold

Back to mid-range also with the help of 4 mln ounces sell order on Friday

Ongoing no major upside interest can turn into longs liquidation below 1280

US bond yields higher having greater impact than potential delay in US tax reform or Brexit developments

Even the uncertainty in Middle East doesn’t seem to have a big impact for now

Resistance 1277 (10 DMA), 1278 (100 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1293 (50 DMA)

Support 1263 (61.8% Fibo/200 DMA)

 

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Constancio (0900 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny (1600 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1745 GMT)

EU Foreign Council meeting

Tue

Fed’s Evans (0805 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0900 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (1000 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Bostic (1805 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 10, 2017 - Market Update (US tax reform question mark, China to open financial markets/allow investments in companies, Trump with a promise of USD 250 bln deals with China, Brexit - Norther Ireland part of EU single market?, Cameco's 10% production cut a new bullish trend in uranium?, Monsanto not linked to cancer, 10-yr Bund yields saw a significant jump, DXY to close around key levels, Brent above key 62.00, than 60.00 USD/bbl)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

US tax reform – a potential delay in corporate tax rate cut to 2019 pushed stocks in US and Asian lower

Trump sees current account deficit with China not acceptable, happy with deals worth of USD 250 bln

But overall friendly remarks on both sides

China to open financial markets and allow foreign investments in financial companies

Trump not meeting Putin at APEC conference

Brexit – Northern Ireland part of single market and customs union according to EU internal papers

China to cut corporate tax rates for high tech companies

Equities

Toshiba planning to raise JPY 600 bln from new shares in a hunt for cash to avoid delisting

Burberry looking more at high-end offering but at what cost?

PSA Group moving fast with pushing its own technology to Opel

Cameco cutting 10% of its uranium production on low prices

Is it a turning point in uranium market after it has lost almost 70% since Fukushima (2011) ?

Allianz’s profit down 17%

Keystone XL having commercial back up

Monsanto not linked to cancer

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34% vs 2.33% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.37% vs 0.33% yesterday

Very significant jump in yields in Europe yesterday

DXY

US tax reform a question mark

Weekly close important as we sit above important levels

A continuation of inverted H&S or not?

Support 94.19 (23.6% Fibo), 94.05 (Aug 2016 low), 93.77 (100 DMA)

Resistance 94.62 (10 DMA), 96.03 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

Market is quiet waiting for a new inspiration from next week’s US data

Consolidating above 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1620 (200 HMA)

And below 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Expiring options (EUR 2.4 bln) with strikes between 1.1500/50

USDJPY

Quiet trading after not being able to break 114.50 few days ago on lacking US yield support

If we see the cross back above 114.00/25 you may consider rally continuation
But is has to be supported by US data next week

Otherwise if no pick up in 10-yr Trys yields towards 2.40% and above the return to 113.00 to come

Resistance at 113.76 (10 DMA), 114.40/50, 114.72

Support at 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Staying above 112.60 may help bulls (from Thu):

Oil

What’s driving the market?

Saudi Arabia and supply cuts vs strong demand

Rally from USD 42 to 57 was supported by shutdowns due to hurricanes and ongoing Saudi Arabia upheaval

Seems to be exhausted and well overdone

Growing US production will be proved by data soon

On top of that not abiding with production cuts from OPEC members to be visible too

Likely to push prices of oil lower going to year end

At the moment traders are hesitant to take profits as they are not sure

How the situation in Saudi Arabia will develop

Likely to take profits after few days of pausing

Brent/WTI spread should stay around USD 6 on transport constrains between Cushing and Gulf coast

Brent daily

Support levels 62.00 than 60.00

Source: Saxo Bank 

WTI daily

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Mersch (1260 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 9, 2017 - Market Update (Brexit saga continues - EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to come up with something, GE signing deals (USD 3.5 bln) in China Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales, 10-yr Trys yield key levels 2.27% & 2.50% to show DXY direction, EURUSD cluelessly waiting for US yields and stocks, Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue)

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher

US tax reform in place likely in 2019 on respecting proper budget rules

TPP – 11 countries at the table and discussing

UAE investigating financial transactions/assets of 19 Saudis at its banks

Brexit saga – EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to bring the bill otherwise not able to prepare for Dec summit

US & SoKo Navy to launch drills near Korean peninsula

Equities

General Electric signed 3 deals in China (USD 3.5 bln)

Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales

The Banco Santander laying off 2000 employees as part of Banco Popular take over

Tencent buying 12% of Snap

Earnings

Walt Disney – theme park revenues to help

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33% vs 2.31% yesterday

Key levels 2.27% and 2.50% for further DXY direction

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33% vs 0.33% yesterday

EURUSD

Volatility is extremely low, only central banks drive the market

Market not sure which way to go

Currently near fair value according to Barclays

USD needs to speed up otherwise we are again back to nowhere

Thus US yields the key, eventually stocks

Expiring options of note with strike 1.1600 (EUR 1.7 bln), much more between 1.1650-1.1700

Stops sitting below 1.1550

Bids sitting above 1.1500

Resistance at 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1620 (200 HMA), 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Support at 1.1590 (55 HMA), 1.1570/50, 1.1500, 1.1490 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Higher US yields and stocks helped

Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue

Resistance at 113.78 (10 DMA), 114.40/50, 114.72

Support at 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Data/events

Busy day with ECB speakers but Draghi firmly laid down dovish view few two weeks ago...

Any surprise today? As number of opponents is growing...

ECB’s Noy (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Mersch (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1345 GMT)

ECB’s Villeroy (1500 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann (1800 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1820 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 8, 2017 - Market Update (EURUSD - H&S almost done, US yields not supporting further USD strength - a correction coming?, Oil - China demand lower on pollution cuts, Gold stuck in 1263-1282 range, ECB Governing Council meeting - watch the comments as more hawks on the Board, Apple - EU asked for more details about tax structure, Bitcoin an asset class?)

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening lower

Trump in China to ask for China cutting financial ties with NoKo

US-Chinese companies signed USD 9 bln deals

USD impacted by headwinds/slowdown related to tax reform (implementation in 2019)

As the tax cuts will spike the budget deficit and will have only temporary effect on the economy (according to Fitch)

Brexit - EU preparing tough transition terms for UK (duration, scope and obligations)

According to CME Bitcoin is a new asset class, not crypto currency

ECB caught by bad loans in Italian banks

More leaning towards hawkish side what may support EUR

Equities

Apple – EU asked for details about tax structure

Monte dei Paschi in profit after some one off items (Q3)

Qualcomm-Broadcom merger under Chinese scrutiny

Valeant profits up

Funo (BoJ) – Japan stock prices not overheating, reflect global investments and corporate earnings

Nikkei 225 close to level last seen in 1992 on relatively low valuations, profit growth and weak JPY

Are US stocks too high?

As mentioned few days ago, the sentiment index (bulls/bears ratio) is close to 1987 highs what may be seen as bears completely giving up. Would feel like there are no more bears left to be converted to bulls and push the market higher. What’s next?

Yes, the valuations (S&P 500 with 19x forward PE) are high but we need a trigger. Is it going to be a weakness in US economy or substantial increase in rates? We believe that missing higher yielding alternatives than dividends are behind all low volatility and investors not caring. Of course US companies do well from earnings and revenue perspective but we truly lack an alternative. Even thought Fed is on a hike path, the bond yield remains flat, thus not attractive enough to trigger a cyclical rotation of capital.

Techs (lately Apple) do support the rally heading towards Christmas. A small correction or hesitation may come on the back of Trump tax reform hurdles. US macro is good, EBITDA at higher than in 2007, revenues growing almost 11% y/y as weaker USD gave a hand.

S&P 500 - we see a divergence on a daily chart, moving higher in a narrow channel and any decisive break up/down can start the correction.

Volatility is at extreme lows again prompting a China story from Aug 2015 to our minds. If you feel so, check this out…

 Warren Buffett’s favorite market metric suggests investors are ‘playing with fire’  link

 …and you may get some chips off the table now.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.31% - very low, not lending any support to USD vs EUR, JPY

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%

Periphery saw rally yesterday with Bunds almost unchanged

IT/PT to Bunds spread keeps declining

EURUSD

USD on negative, not helped by low US rates

As the yields remain low, USD need positive news from data or tax reform effort

Otherwise the recent USD rally is due for correction

H&S formation almost complete, Bear sitting above 1.1600 level

Resistance at 1.1595 (55 HMA), 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1623 (10 DMA), 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Support at 1.1550, 1.1500, 1.1490 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Heavy activity expected above 114.00

As there are bids from lows and above 114.00

Nikkei 225 to test 23 000 level

Goldman Sachs looking to invest in Japan

Resistance at 114.40/50

Support at 113.82 (10 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Oil

Crack on corruption and fight for power a new daily norm in Saudis

Speculative demand for front end contracts (backwardation) drives oil higher

While sellers sitting on sidelines and supply unaffected

Be aware that this speculative longs may create a misleading feeling about market tightening

Geo political risks to support oil further along with likely OPEC cuts extension

Overnight corrected on lower China imports as country is reducing production due to pollution over winter months

EVs can create a plateau in 2030

Gold

Stuck between 1263 (61.8% Fibo) and 1282 (50.0% Fibo)

Sitting above 1277 (100 DMA) with further level of note 1300/1306

Which may be in focus once 1282 is broken and net sellers turn to buyers

Data/events

ECB Governing Council meeting

To watch any comment as more officials lean to hawkish side

Are US rates dependent on the height of the Chair? Enjoy...  link

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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