Nov 29, 2017 - Market Update (OPEC day but will Russia, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria join? Preliminary Brexit bill EUR 50 bln, Gold attacking 1300 but..., EU to freeze funding for tax heavens, to prepare new black/grey lists, Softbank looking to buy Uber shares at 30% discount, Bitcoin a threat to global economy?)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

OPEC day today with not only oil but energy stocks in focus

NoKo threating with new missile test again

But no reaction from the markets (a sign that conflict escalation is low for the time being)

Powell with dovish tilt, no change to rate path

HFs having hard time to earn money from bond and FX trading

And may move over to strategies of flattening of US yield curve and USD weakness next year

Brexit – rumours about preliminary exit bill agreement (UK agreed to pay much of EU bill, likely EUR 50 bln)

GBP on a stronger foot today

Senate vote on tax bill already on Thursday

EU to freeze funding for tax heavens, new black and grey list coming

Britain, Malta and Netherlands used for aggressive tax planning

Bitcoin above 10k (up 940% in 2017)

Not threatening the world economy by its seize but creating a psychological bubble

Equities

Goldman Sachs interested in metals trading arm of Scotiabank (USD 1 bln)

Softbank looking to buy Uber shares at 30% discount

Royal Dutch Shell partnering with car producers in installing super-fast chargers in Europe

Oil majors moving aggressively to shale 

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

It's Time to Get Out of Emerging Asian Currencies: LGT  link  

Slower growth in China, U.S. tax reform are both set to weigh

Higher interest rates are already largely priced in

EURUSD

Resistance 1.1886 (61.8%)

Support 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo/10 DMA). 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014/15 decline)

USDJPY

Support 111.02 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 111.58 (100 DMA), 111.68 (200 DMA), 111.80 (10 DMA), 111.89 (38.2% Fibo)

Gold

Getting some support from NoKo provocations but needs more JPY strength to move higher

Dowside is limited on geopolitical and economic risks

Not able to break 1300 (Fibo, psychological resistance)

Next resistance 1306, 1313, 1321 (23.6% Fibo)

Support 1288 (10 DM), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1283-85 (50/100 DMA)

Weekly Commodity: Oil bulls supported by Canadian supply disruption, Thursday OPEC meeting in focus  link

Data/events

OPEC meeting – to discuss cut extension and duration

Is Russia on the same page? As many independent producers may not necessarily obey the cuts

What about Iraq, Libya, Nigeria as they keep pumping

US inventories up while shale oil production rising

ECB’s Constancio (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen hearing (1500 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann (1700 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1745 GMT)

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Dec 21 – BoJ

Dec 21 – Catalonia elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

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