Nov 28, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Oil bulls supported by Canadian supply disruption, Thursday OPEC meeting in focus

The last week was rather quiet due to Thanksgiving but we had some interesting moves in the commodity space due to unexpected events. First of all the tired oil bulls got some support from the Canadian supply disruption while the grain market was kept low due to huge ending stocks and good weather forecast from South America. We saw also a revival of the industrial metals on South American mine strikes and drop in LME stocks.

After the news that TransCanada will reduce supply by 85% for November due to pipeline leak the bulls tried another run and pushed WTI to new highs while reaction on Brent was subdued. The Spread between the two dropped below 5$ for a day but bounced back quickly. The market is watching OPEC meeting in Vienna this week and the final agreement about the extension of the production cut. The key player is Russia this time as showed reluctance to extend the deal however market priced in 6-9 month extension. If the cartel and Russia fails to agree on this at least, oil may see a significant drop, while the upside potential is limited by already large speculative long and potential shale hedging activity.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent.

Mr. Tech Man

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