Thursday 30 June 2016

Boris Johnson is off the race for Conservative party leadership ( UPDATED 2 )



UPDATE 2 ( 04.07.2016 ):

The UK politics meltdown continues with resignation of Nigel Farage who was a very strong advocate of Leave camp.

11:19 GMT
UPDATE:

Theresa May and Michael Gove being two candidates to replace David Cameron.

Boris Johnson promised a lot during the Leave campaign and likely wouldn't be able to deliver on his promises as a Prime Minister.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Boris Johnson is off the race for Conservative party leadership.
Leaving Theresa May a chance as she is more neutral candidate.
Makes sense...


Boris was very strong supporter of Leave camp and now pulled out.

GBP is trying up across the board...




Forex - Live European Session 30.06.2016




Hi all,

that's beta test of our Forex Live Market Coverage - Market Makers Method / Price Action / Supply & Demand.

15:20 GMT - Carney is speaking on Brexit, FROM RTRS *sees need for summer stimulus after Brexit shock * that's the explanation of what we have seen last few minutes... of course AUDUSD closed at entry lvl... Let's leave Big Boys with their own End Of The Month Game... Next Live Market Coverage on Tuesday

14:20 GMT - AUDUSD stop has been moved lower to entry level, XAUUSD as mentioned below was waiting for stop hunting rally but looks like some sellers stepped in a bit earlier around 1322 ( small miss here ), EURUSD unfortunately bulls were not able to push price higher, so I was not able to participate in last sell-off ( pls check earlier explanation of my different approach to AUDUSD and EURUSD ). Ladies and Gents EOMonth, EOQ flow, options related flow, fix flow ... LOL  ... that's it from me today, will update AUDUSD if anything ( summary after trade close )... Have a great evening, enjoy...football game :)

13:40 GMT - USD in demand again... DX looks much better right now...

12:50 GMT - What was different in my approach to AUDUSD and EURUSD:

1. DX ( AUD is not included in dollar basket ) chart did not look good at that very time, so I was waiting for something special on EURUSD ( like stop hunting on higher lvls )
2. Intraday damage ( damage done on short term chart like 10 min: done on AUDUSD, not on EURUSD )
3. I did not want build more USD longs without special * event * ( without some kind of edge on my side )

Hopefully that clarify a lot ( and if not dont hesitate to contact us for further explanation :) )

11:55 GMT - AUDUSD holding short position... ROADMAP ( valid as long as market is trading below our stop :) ): 1. at 0,7426 I will move my stop to entry, 2. at 0,7396 I will close 50% of  my position, 3. my final target is at 0,7356 Good Luck

11:33 GMT - EURUSD hey, wait ! Guys try to make some more stops to the upside... I'm not in yet :) :) :)

10:53 GMT - AUDUSD I'm short....

10:35 GMT - Gold ( XAUUSD ) intraday, under normal market condition I would go with short on rallies twds 1318/19 but not today ( end of the month, end of the quarter etc ), waiting for my edge which in my opinion could be stop hunting rally twds 1325 around US open ;)

9:53 GMT - EURUSD intraday  looking to sell as mentioned before nut not waiting with an order as the left side of the chart is not perfect for me ( blue circle ). Would like to see price action around possible supply zone on 10min chart, please check chart below ( hopefully you got my point ):



9:27 GMT - Gold ( XAUUSD ) intraday will watch around 1325... sell opportunity ?

8:50 GMT - S&P 500 ( ESU ) looks like mkt wants to test pre-Brexit high. It makes perfect sense, especially as huge drop took place after US regular session. So let's test that supply :)



8:30 GMT - EURUSD looking to sell on rallies ( above 1,1140 ), will update

8:05 GMT - AUDUSD I have limit to sell order at 0,7456, with stop bid at 0,7476, risk 0,25%, please check the chart below for full explanation:



7:58 GMT - GBP in most cases is playing with Sunday gaps...  EURGBP looking to sell

7:43 GMT - Good Morning, EOM and EOQ flows dominate...




Wednesday 29 June 2016

Brexit ongoing…


Facts from UK:
-          Political meltdown in UK – as no one wants to take the full responsibility and act
-          Unfortunately, the leaders of Leave camp admitted in after referendum aftermath that not all what they said in the campaign was really truth
-          Lafarge from UKIP didn’t hesitate to express his desire to be good friends, neighbors and trading partners with the EU. How ironic it is…
-          Leave camp doesn’t have any B plan
-          Boris Johnson likely to be put aside
-          David Cameron is trying to buy some time as he doesn’t want to be the one who uses the Article 50 of EU Treaty and starts formally exit process



Facts from EU:
-          Very clear disappointment from UK vote
-          Strong commitment to keep EU together from all 27 leaders
-          No formal or informal talks before Article 50 is activated
-          UK must accept and honor referendum results; can not bypass results to avoid exit from EU
-          UK can not cherry pick or used the facilities of the Club without being a member of it
-          UK must accept all four pillars of EU ( for example free movement) in order to keep the access to single market
-          EU is strongly pushing for quick activation of Article 50, so all settle das quickly as possible and uncertainty removed
-          Likely it won’t happen until UK has a new leadership in Sept/Oct 2016
-          EU Summit – special relationship will be on the table but not only Germany and France will play tough
-          Lots at stake at EU side as well – likely will try not to take hostile approach towards UK.

The character and maturity of the nations as well as individuals is being tested…


Mr Hawk



Tuesday 28 June 2016

Forex - Live European Session 28.06.2016 ( Updated )



Hi all,

that's beta test of our Forex Live Market Coverage - Market Makers Method / Price Action / Supply & Demand.

8:38 GMT ( 29.06.2016 ) - thank you in advance for any comments and feedbacks.

JOIN US TOMORROW AGAIN ( 30.06.2016 ) - NEXT LIVE TRADING COVERAGE STARTS BEFORE EUROPE OPEN  

8:20 GMT ( 29.06.2016 ) - SUMMARY: Good start of our new idea - Live Market Coverage. The main purpose is education while monitoring FX market, to show how we read the mkt ( Market makers Manipulation, Price Action, Supply & Demand ).
0,5% daily profit, if we could do that everyday... :)  and we missed few trades by few pips.
In addition, I'm going to record short video: how I manage intraday FX positions,
Im pretty sure it its going to be useful and will help you to understand how to manage the risk easy.

14:56 GMT - AUDUSD 0,7371 taking profit at the end of my day... so 30 pips booked ... 1 to 2 risk reward ratio. I've been risking 0,25% of my account value, so my profit is 0,5%. Goodies...

14:50 GMT - AUDUSD holding short, moved stop loss order to 0,7386 to ensure 15 pips or 1 to 1 risk / reward... will update

14:20 GMT - AUDUSD holding intraday short... as day is coming to the end for me, I moved my stop to entry level... will update

14:15 GMT - Market Flow: Stocks in a window dressing mood, USD demand visible...

13:34 GMT - AUDUSD intraday short explanation: I've been waiting for stop hunting earlier today ( check comments below ) and I missed good entry. Since then mkt made lower low on 10 min TF , channel has been created and I took the chance to go short on third test of the channel top, please check details on the chart below ( entry, stop and target are visible ), any hesitations let me know ( via Contact Form ):



13:20 GMT - EURUSD is testing intraday demand...



13:01 GMT - GBPUSD watching, would like to see how really strong bulls are above 1,3430+ , EURUSD  missed morning entry ( no retest ) and do not want to chase the mkt...

12:55 GMT - USDCAD if bears fail here then 1,3160/80+ again on the radar...

12:36 GMT - AUDUSD selling some intraday at 0,7401, stop if bid 0,7416, risk: 0,25% GL

12:17 GMT - We are back... EURUSD found support around 1,1060 ( also mentioned b4 ), USDCAD intraday bulls took out 1,3030 and working with 1,3050 ( m-phone mid-line 1h chart ), watching price action here, EURGBP still looking to sell, awaiting confirmation, Gold ( XAUUSD ) is trying to hold earlier mentioned demand zone, AUDUSD - intraday weak, that's what we expected, did not hit stops yet

11:20 GMT - Short break here, waiting for US traders to join, will be back b4 US data

11:16 GMT - EURUSD UPDATE: CANCELLED, still looking to sell

10:43 GMT - USDCAD ... reversing, 1,3030 next ?

10:20 GMT - EURUSD I have limit to sell at 1,1109, stop bid 1,1136 ( again bit wider than under normal mkt condition ) and I'm targeting 1,1020/00 ( earlier will watch 1,1060 as well )

10:04 GMT - EURUSD looking for stops as expected... watching

10:02 GMT - USDCAD UPDATE 2: CANCELLED, missed entry by 5/6 pips and mkt is approaching our first target

9:41 GMT - USDCAD UPDATE: pls check the chart below for explanation. Under normal mkt condition our stop would be just above supply zone visible on the chart



9:24 GMT - USDCAD I do have limit to sell at 1,30, with 1,3023 stop bid, targeting 1,2960/40, risking 0,25% GL

9:19 GMT - USDCAD retesting 1.30 after breakdown... oil will be the key

8:44 GMT - AUDUSD let's see if we can get a bit higher prices, looking for intraday stops



8:34 GMT - EURUSD that is how I see the things ( for now only :) ):



8:23 GMT - Please bear in mind that end of the month and end of the quarter flow ( window dressing ) may dominate !

8:02 GMT - EURGBP testing supply zone on weekly chart, watching intraday price action b4 short

7:45 GMT - EURUSD looking for stop hunting rally 1,11+ b4 short ( for now )

7:35 GMT - USDCAD possible intraday demand 1,2945/25 ( watching oil as well )

7:26 GMT - Gold ( XAUUSD ) key intraday demand between 1307/1298 imho, EURUSD above ydy open but still opening gap is valid

7:15 GMT - AUDUSD watching possible intraday supply around 0,7408/16

7:06 GMT - Forex Live Coverage has educational purpose only ! Please check our disclaimer below.

7:00 GMT - Risk on at open. Watching FX majors, gold, oil and indices.

6:49 GMT - Good Morning.


Monday 27 June 2016

S&P cuts UK´s sovereign credit rating to AA from AAA


S&P cuts United Kingdom`s sovereign credit rating to AA with negative outlook . The agency referred to the outcome of the EU referendum held last Thursday in the country. According to the S&P the result of the Brexit vote will have further negative impact on the stability and predictability of policy making in the UK. The agency mentioned also concerns that the narrow win of the Brexit camp will cause "wider constitutional issues for the country as a whole."


EURGBP - Tech overview



Hi,
its not that easy to trade these days :)

EURGBP - approaching very interesting supply zone on weekly chart ( we have mentioned that chart in our weekly macro overview 2 weeks ago ):


Bulls are trying to take the advantage of the Brexit but real question is UK or EU is going to be more affected ? Anyway, from bulls perspective, close above 0,8380/0,84 is needed ( weekly basis ) for possible 0,8880 / 8900 - 0,9040/90. On the other hand its pretty visible ( and clear as well :) ) that if bulls fail here bears may enjoy bottom of that channel as a target.

Intraday price action should tell us more how market makers will try to manipulate us, please check one hour chart below:


Bears:
1. breakdown from the channel and gap close is needed ( hint: we did not even try to close the gap immediately after open )
2. close below 0,8100 and then 0,8000 ( based on current situation only ) should help a lot.

Bulls:
1. mistake: they did not allow bears to try to close opening gap
2. in my opinion ( could be tough task ) bulls need to setup *parabolic* move up ( it could be possible by setting up a trap on a attempt of intraday breakdown of the channel ).

Stay tuned

Mr Price Action




Brexit going real…


Draghi (ECB) and Carney (BoE) meeting for a Friday cup of tea? Why not, as there is really lots at stake. Don’t even forget about EUR clearing still taking place in London and not in Frankfurt or Paris what would many think.

As Brussels is putting more and more pressure on UK politicians to assume the full responsibility and start the exit talks immediately, the London’s City bankers are already firing at all cylinders in the field of lobbying. Well, losing the access to EU markets, especially for US banks would be very costly for years to come. The solution is a pass-porting but would Germans or French be even open to talk about it? 

So, where should London bankers find a refuge? Frankfurt is a first choice as there is ECB and strong pressure to bring EUR clearing there, then Dublin due to language, low taxes…etc. may be of interest, and definitely, Paris is also a place to go. What we may be a bit worried about is that the part of the business will end up in New York, in the light of a safe harbor kind of place with stable legal framework and predictability that is vital for top executives while making long term decisions.

Well, the period of uncertainty is coming as UK and EU would need to agree on divorce papers first, sign them and negotiate the new after-marriage deals, what in my believe will be very messy with unpredictable outcome.

In all of that market turmoil do no forget about lots of financial institutions still holding peripheral bonds on their books that are under pressure in “fleeing to safety” flows or Deutsche Borse – London Stock Exchange merger being questioned a lot. Maybe if Frankfurt is a HQ place for the group, the German regulator can approve it. The deal in this case will be questioned by LSE shareholders what for sure, will put an additional question marks about the deal.


What’s next for the EU ?

Monday through Wednesday – expecting busy calendar for EU leaders, Draghi…etc., that will be topped with EU Summit where Cameron would have a time to explain a lot. The second part of EU Summit will take place without his presence. Actually, there is no point at this time to speculate about the outcome as the situation is very fluid and evolving…

Sunday 26 June 2016

People`s Party won 137 seats in Spain`s Elections (2nd update)


Peoples of Spain turned to pro-establishment People`s Party of Mariano Rajoy, which has won 137 the seats (39% of 350) in the repeated Spanish Elections compared to 123 in December. The two biggest left wing parties of the country, Unidos Podemos will have 71 (unchanged) and the Socialist party 85 seat (down from 90) in the new parliament. In contrary to the earlier estimates the two won`t be able to form a government with absolute majority in the Spanish Parliament.



None of the parties has won an absolute majority in the 350-strong parliament. The second general elections in 6 months was supposed to solve the political deadlock in the country, after the winner parties couldn`t agree on forming a coalition in December. Now the parties will be forced back to the negotiating table to form a government and it will start all over again. 

After the shocking EU referendum this result already added to the negative market sentiment from Friday. Asian Stocks declined with oil, pound and euro. Gold`s reaction was subdued while the hedge funds were holding record longs in gold last week. 
(2nd Update from Tech Man)

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.
All rights reserved ©2016 www.landoftrading.com Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com 


Weekly Macro Overview - Week 26




The anti-austerity Podemos is expected to make big gains in Sunday`s Spanish general elections. After the last week’s shocking result of British referendum, another political event that may drive the markets lower. The question whether this could be the start of a bear market... well, the technical picture seems to be confirming this thesis (we have mentioned we are bearish based on weekly DAX chart two weeks ago). There will also be some important data however, the main topic that will resonate coming week is the vote of Britons to abandon the EU and the reaction of the Union.  Any news from the meetings of European politicians can move the markets significantly, therefore please be very cautious with position sizing. This time definitely the less could be more...


Previous Week Summary

Got few questions for you:

1)      Do you know how to get the GBP down to the levels seen back in mid ’80?
2)      Or how to make yields on German 30yr bonds negative?
3)      Eventually, how to knock down CAC 8% and DAX 7% just in one day?
4)      If it is not enough, how to break two unions or make BoE pull out of the pocket GBP 250 bln?

Pretty simple, just announce the Brexit referendum in order to secure election victory, let the false arguments and propaganda run the show and lose the vote at the end. That’s what happened and make the UK public pretty shocked.

Freedom of speech is guaranteed, but also the spike in google’s searches for “impact of UK leaving EU”, “what is EU”, “who are the members of EU”…etc., what is pretty surprising, especially as these searches spiked up in the evening/overnight on Thursday. One would think, that voting takes place first and only then, people check what they we were actually voting about…
…and Scots – they are now looking at securing the place in the EU, followed by Northern Ireland starting to talk about reunification with Ireland.

Tuesday – German Constitutional Court ruling was as expected with some conditions only. Yellen’s testified but didn’t bring any surprise (as expected). She stressed the risk of economic uncertainty, slower productivity growth, data dependency combined with Brexit risks are on the table.
Wednesday – May New homes sales hit the highest level in years, showing the lower inventories. Prices also increased. 
Thursday – the manufacturing PMI numbers from looked pretty decent after hitting the 6.5 yr low in May. It may be another sign of stabilization. 
Friday – difficult to comment any data as markets were “digesting” the Brexit results.


Announcement of Tesla to acquire SolarCity at 20-30% premium caught attention of many in equity space. It looks very visionary to create a one-stop place for electric cars, solar panels and batteries, especially when by combining their customer bases they can leverage sales and marketing expenses. On the flip side, Tesla shareholders may not be open to support such a deal that is combining of two companies still producing the negative cash flow. (the SolarCity shares are down approximately 60% since last year).

Upcoming Week Outlook

MONDAY: no important data, but watch out for the EU reaction to the Brexit vote. EU officials were meeting during the weekend and will continue during the week. They are expected to push Britain to exit the EU sooner rather than later. The As Sunday’s Spanish elections seem to add more uncertainty into the EU’s future, it could be a really rough start to the trading week after the pound’s black Friday.
TUESDAY: final US Q1 GDP is expected to increase vs. previous prelim. release (0.8%). It will be lower than Q4 (+1.4%) but should maintain the rising trend of the Q1 GDP growth of the last 2 years (-0.9%, 0.6%). The Consumer sentiment should have minor effect on the markets as won`t reflect the Brexit vote effect.
WEDNESDAY: the Fed’s unofficial inflation indicator will be released, the Core PCE index. The probability of a July hike was brought down to zero by the Brexit vote, therefore currently we expect minor effect. A surprise could however lead to a volatile short term move. Wednesday is as always a Crude oil day and given the current risk off mood and the test of the uptrend line in both WTI and Brent on Friday, traders will look for any confirmation the bull is not dead yet…
THURSDAY: the Trade balance data of the UK is due on Thursday and the deepening trend of the deficit seems to be very strong, which is the biggest macro concern currently. The recent drastic depreciation of the pound may help in the medium term as trade conditions with EU will stay the same at least for the next 2 years. However further decline in TB could have further negative impact on the GBP.
FRIDAY: we will end the week with PMIs from all over the world. Most importantly in China where the Official and the HSBC manufacturing PMI will be released within 45 min. A surprise in the UK and US PMIs later the day could be also a market mover. All of these data were oscillating around the 50 point mark which represents the threshold of recession for an economy. 


Weekly Technical Overview

EURUSD weekly chart:




GOLD ( XAUUSD ) weekly chart:



Event Risk Calendar 





DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.
All rights reserved ©2016 www.landoftrading.com Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

Friday 24 June 2016

Red Alert - BREXIT notes ( part 3 ) - Personal advice



Hi all,
... and its done.

There are 3 possibilities how traders are positioned right now ( and my personal advice for each ):

1. You hit the jackpot - You were on the right side of the market. Don't give up any penny You have made last night. Start your big weekend now ! Traders took some/all profits already, we don't know what may happen over the weekend ( politicians / central bankers etc )

2. You did not take the risk - you were in the bed. No worries, you are going to have plenty of chances next week. Don't trade, start your weekend ( the same reasons as above ) !

3. You were on the wrong side and now you are trying to recover losses. STOP ! Turn off your computer and enjoy the weekend. Try to recover mentally to be ready to back on Monday !

Unfortunately, there is one more... You were on the wrong side and you were not able to manage your positions/losses properly and you have been stopped out... If that is true believe me I'm really sorry ( I've been in that position in the past ). The only possible advice: it was extremely expensive lesson , try to get as much as you can from it before you'll try to get back and revenge / punish the market.

We ( as Land of Trading group ) at the beginning of the road with our project and the Brexit event was a great test for us and our Beta testers. We would like to say thank you for the support.

Valuable stuff is coming, stay tuned...

Have a great weekend !

Mr Price Action

Thursday 23 June 2016

Red Alert - BREXIT notes ( part 2 ) - Forex liquidity problems


Liquidity

As we a will be approaching the close of polling stations (2100 GMT) tonight, the liquidity will be likely drying up more and more, thus the risk of gapping or abrupt market moves will become very high. Being prudent in such cases means to scale down the trading activity, ticket sizes or eventually, open a bottle of good wine and watch the market.

As the whole FX industry is changing, there is more and more algos and machines running the trading instead of human prop traders these days. That may also have a negative effect on market making and supporting the sufficient liquidity, as machines are easy to turn off anytime, especially in the event of huge market risk/stress. It is good not to forget about that.

In case of Leave vote the BoE is ready to cut the rate by 25 bps and eventually, look at reinstating of asset purchases. Globally, the central banks are ready to support the market by additional liquidity and to calm down everyone, G7 is preparing a statement. Not only ECB can cut the rates but also other central banks in Europe can do so, as an immediate reaction. Definitely they will monitoring their currencies strengthening and inflation weakening. And as Yellen and other Fed officials mentioned recently, the next rate hike can be postponed to Dec or next year, as they do not feel comfortable with Brexit referendum as such, as well as its impact across the markets.

What’s next after Leave vote?

Well, hard to say, but there are two scenarios on the table:
1) David Cameron would need to activate the Article 50 of EU Treaty and start the negotiations with Brussel and member states about conditions of exiting the EU. They will have a two year period to reach the agreement and if not, the applicability of EU Treaties over UK will cease to exist. If no agreement is reached, the UK will become a country without any agreement in place with EU.

2) The negotiations with EU will start first and then, the Article 50 will be activated just to complete the process. Under both scenarios, it would be extremely difficult for UK to negotiate advantageous conditions of further relationship with EU.

We don’t want to speculate on the outcome at the moment, but there is lots at stake and it would very costly for UK and EU to walk that way. Also worth of mentioning, if UK decides to join the club again in the future, it would be pretty hard to get the consent from every member of EU.

Forex - AUDUSD intraday short opportunity ?

Hi,
looks like bulls on AUDUSD love the * USD sell-off * party...
Well, it could be very soon when the lastest longs will understand that they turned-off the light at that particular party. Intraday we are selling into that rally @0,7595

Please find daily and intraday charts below as explanation:

Daily:


Intraday:

Happy Fx Trading !






Wednesday 22 June 2016

Red Alert - BREXIT notes


FX movements

In case of a Leave vote, there is no doubt about GBP weakening sharply. The stress will spread to EM space, EUR and other risk assets. On the flip side of the coin should be JPY, CHF and gold.

What really makes a difference from the CHF event, BoJ surprise move weakening the JPY by 3% or events related to ZAR move of 10%, is that the market was getting ready for quite some time. The option market has been pricing approx. 8-9% downside move in GBP for couple of weeks. Even with a relief rally on Monday, we are still not out of the woods yet. The GBPUSD vols remain at very high levels as the risk of Brexit is still present and we do not know what will follow.

When looking at possible outcomes we should split between countries with direct trade exposure to UK/EU and with big banking exposure to UK.

As mentioned above, the impact on GBP will be the highest, followed by EUR, CEE EM (CZK, PLN and HUF), other EM (MXN, ZAR, TRY…etc.). The commodity currencies (AUD, NZD or CAD) will be effected less, but may get hurt by a fall in commodity prices.

Event risk is not UK leaving EU but what damage it may bring to EU project as such. On the other hand EU should really do some reflection as migrant crisis, threat from Russia or internal inability at political level to make right decisions at the right time is alarming. Looking like EU is losing the steam at the moment and is not willing to make the necessary structural changes.

HUF and PLN may suffer but interesting development will be in EURCZK, as the immediate reaction may push the cross higher. In case of Remain vote, it may be the contrary but don’t forget about CNB protecting the 27.00 floor, thus limiting downside. But will it really do so, even when the flows will be really huge?

The second aspect to consider are capital flows to safe heavens. There are some currencies that may serve as a parking vehicle like JPY, CHF, SEK or DKK.

The third one may be the inter-connection of banking system of different countries not only to UK but to EU too. Example could be the CEE currencies that are higher beta but still do lots of trading and banking with EU/UK. They may be followed but TRY, ZAR, MXN and to certain extent BRL.


Financials crying?

Yes, they are what was visible by steep declines in their stocks recently. The EU insurers and pension funds piled into bonds as a part of risk management and last minute positioning before Brexit vote. Unwinding of these positions can be massive in case of No vote, what we witnessed on Monday as a part of relief trading. The banks are suffering from low margins due to low/negative rates what is putting additional pressure on the sector as such. Interesting opportunities in UK banks? Look at HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays as they may benefit the most from Stay results not because of revenue but from regulatory visibility within EU legal framework.


A side note

Brexit – the UK vs EU debate is still on the table but the real issue that has caused all the mess is “local” politics in UK, where the Conservative or Labour Party haven’t sorted out how they should view and position themselves with respect to EU membership. But this lack of self-reflection is pretty expensive looking at economic uncertainty and the stress present in financial markets.

Recent polls showed that the “Remain” supporters are slowly coming back.





Tuesday 21 June 2016

Sunday 19 June 2016

Compare Forex Trading and Stock Trading


The forex (foreign currency exchange) market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world. The forex market unlike stock markets is an over-the-counter market with no central exchange and clearing house where orders are matched.

Traditionally forex trading has not been popular with retail traders/investors (traders takes shorter term positions than investors) because forex market was only opened to Hedge Funds and was not accessible to retail traders like us. Only in recent years that forex trading is opened to retail traders. Comparatively stock trading has been around for much longer for retail investors. Recent advancement in computer and trading technologies has enabled low commission and easy access to retail traders to trade stock or foreign currency exchange from almost anywhere in the world with internet access. Easy access and low commission has tremendously increased the odds of winning for retail traders, both in stocks and forex. Which of the two is a better option for a trader? The comparisons of retail stock trading and retail forex trading are as follows;

Nature of the Instrument

The nature of the items being bought and sold between forex trading and stocks trading are different. In stocks trading, a trader is buying or selling a share in a specific company in a country. There are many different stock markets in the world. Many factors determine the rise or fall of a stock price. Refer to my article in under stock section to find more information about the factors that affect stock prices. Forex trading involves buying or selling of currency pairs. In a transaction, a trader buys a currency from one country, and sells the currency from another country. Therefore the term "exchange". The trader is hoping that the value of the currency that he buys will rise with respect to the value of the currency that he sells. In essence, a forex trader is betting on the economic prospect (or at least her monetary policy) of one country against another country.

Market Size & Liquidity

Forex market is the largest market in the world. With daily transactions of over US$4 trillion, it dwarfs the stock markets. While there are thousands of different stocks in the stock markets, there are only a few currency pairs in the forex market. Therefore, forex trading is less prone to price manipulation by big players than stock trading. Huge market volume also means that the currency pairs enjoy greater liquidity than stocks. A forex trader can enter and exit the market easily. Stocks comparatively is less liquid, a trader may find problem exiting the market especially during major bad news. This is worse especially for small-cap stocks. Also due to its huge liquidity of forex market, forex traders can enjoy better price spread as compared to stock traders.

Trading Hours & Its Disadvantage to Retail Stock Traders

Forex market opens 24-hour while US stock market opens daily from 930am EST to 4pm EST. This means that Forex traders can choose to trade any hours while stock traders are limited to 930am EST to 4pm EST. One significant disadvantage of retail stock traders is that the stock markets are only opened to market makers during pre-market hours (8:30am - 9:20am EST) and post-market hours (4:30pm - 6:30pm EST). And it is during these pre-market and post-markets hours that most companies release the earnings results that would have great impact on the stock prices. This means that the retails traders (many of us) could only watch the price rise or drop during these hours. Besides, stop order would not be honored during this times. The forex traders do not suffer this significant disadvantage. Also, a stock trader may supplement his/her trading with forex trading outside the stock trading hours.

Affordability

In order to trade stocks, a trader needs to have quite a significant amount of capital in his account, at least a few tens of thousands in general. However, a forex trader can start trading with an account of only a few hundreds dollars. This is because forex trading allows for higher leverage. A forex trader could obtain larger transaction compared to stock market. Some forex brokers offers 100:1, 200:1 or 400:1. A leverage of 100:1 means that a US$1k in account could obtain a 100 times transaction value at US$100k. There is no interest charge for the leveraged money. Stock trading generally allows for not more than 2 times leverage in margin trading. There are interest charges associated with margin trading.

Data Transparency & Analysis Overload

There are thousands of different stocks in different industries. trader needs to research many stocks and picks the best few to trade. There are many factors that affect the stock prices. There are much more factors that may affects stock price than foreign currency exchange rates. The forex traders therefore can focus on few currency pairs to trade. On top of that, most data or news affecting currency exchange rate are announced officially, scheduled and in a transparent manner. Retail forex traders therefore have better chances of success than retail stock traders.

Bear/Bull Stock Market Conditions

Forex traders can trade in both way buying or selling currency pairs without any restrictions. However, stock traders have more constraints to trade and profit in bear market condition. There are more restrictions and costs associated with stock short selling. In a bull market when the economy is doing well, stock traders have a high chance of profitability if they buy stock first then sell it later. Savvy forex traders however, could operate in all market conditions.

Trending Nature of Currency

Major currencies are influenced by national financial policies and macro trends This national financial policies and macro trends tend to last long in a certain direction, either in monetary expansionary (rate cutting) or monetary contractionary cycle (rate hiking cycle). Stock prices however tend to fluctuate up and down due to many factors, many of these factors are micro and specific to the stocks. Therefore forex traders can better exploit the trends in foreign currency markets that stock traders in stock markets.

Regulation

Generally, most major stock markets are better regulated than forex markets. Therefore, traders need to be aware of this difference to stock markets. Fortunately, there are however many reputable forex brokers in the market. With prudence and proper research, it is not difficult to find a suitable reliable forex brokers.
Based on the above few points, forex trading seems to be a better trading option than stock trading, especially during these uncertainties in the global economy. During bull market condition, stock trading could be a viable alternative. A stock trader should definitely seriously consider supplementing their trading with forex trading. Forex trading enables a stock trader to exploit any opportunity arises during non stock trading hours, by trading in forex trading. Forex trading would also enable the stock traders to understand a more complete big picture of world economies operations and further enhance their stock trading skills.



Online Forex Trading Strategy - How to Make Currency Trading Systems Work For You


Now that there are hundreds of Forex margin brokers, millions of free Forex trading tips websites and literally hundreds of thousands of Forex day trading strategy "home based business" Forex traders, we can say that virtually anyone with an internet connection can trade Forex with the pros.

In any power trading strategy, a proven trading method will mean that through Forex strategy testing and by using trading risk management, no more than one or two per cent of a total account value is put at risk in a single trade. This is key in the path to big Forex profits. Any trader beginning out will look at the trading methodologies available to them and decide to create trading rules for their Forex trading strategy.

Forex trading (currency trading) initiates should be aware therefore not only of technical and fundamental analysis and predicting Forex prices, but also of how to be a trading strategy tester and to have strong Forex trading rules that help them to make the big Forex profits they are seeking. The alternative is to have more experienced Forex trading systems used by more experienced traders end up causing you to lose all your money in your Forex business - the harshest possible outcome.

Having the following in place could assist you in getting started right away in Forex trading (currency trading): a Forex trading software platform; a free Forex trading strategy (or a paid for one for that matter); an understanding of fundamental and technical analysis and a trading risk management system. From these elements (and also the support of a daily Forex strategy briefing from a margin broker or some other site) you can start Forex trading in the fx market with your own Forex trading strategy rules.

Learning currency trading online needs to begin with sound trading risk management and how to manage your trading account balance by making intelligent risk decisions with your trading account. The risks can be higher with Forex because the moves in a week can be equivalent to a month in stock moves. Volatility is to be expected.

Currency trading strategy rules for a Forex business can be developed by amalgamating Forex trading systems of others or simply garnering a Forex education to include: fundamental and technical analysis; trading money management (risk management); a daily Forex strategy briefing from a "third party" and a way of creating Forex forecase signals (in other words a means of predicting future Forex prices from perhaps a technical setup on a currency pair or simply from Forex strategy testing that has been carried out.

Forex strategy testing can either be done through using a practice account through your broker or by paper trading your strategy. A third option is to use software such as Forex strategy tester which can run a simulation of what could happen if you trade by your rules with some limitations on accuracy.

Free Forex trading strategy tips are available from Forex ebooks webistes all over the web. The truth is that the Forex trading fx market needs to be treated as a business that runs like a Forex trading machine as much as possible. This is key if you are to make big Forex profits in live trading. Lack of regulation means that anyone can sell a "scalping trading strategy" or so-called "foolproof trading method" and make themselves out to be an expert or even say they are a long term bank trader when they are not. There is a need for caution therefore when deciding on where to get your Forex education because not any Forex trading guide is actually going to help in your predicting Forex prices in the near, medium or long terms.

It behooves you to go out and look at what is on offer from Forex trading websites and learn more about the global currency markets after you have read this article. Some sites are listed in the resource box at the end to start you off. Trading Forex online then presents challenges. The rest of this article will address those challenges. In order to trade effectively, a Forex trading guide is needed for the initiate in to the Forex markets to be able to learn online currency trading, understand trading risk management and how to manage money, discover technical and fundamental analysis, how these types of analysis of the market differ and how to apply them in creating a Forex trading machine.

This means that after all the cogs are set in place you will have a Forex trading machine that enables you to its like a professional and make decisions based in the moment and on the facts that are presented to you, rather than guess or gambling work - although there is invariably an element of risk, your job is to eliminate the risk as much as possible in applying your trading strategy.

To make this happen, you will start to think about what you may need in order to implement your trading strategy. For example, will you be needing a daily Forex strategy briefing from either a paid service or a free provider of its strategy briefings - such as perhaps your broker or a third party service. In your technical analysis will you be utilising traditional indicators such as those involved in a bands trading strategy (Bollinger Bands), will you rely on charts created by a its platform or other currency price forecast type service or will you be professional analyst charts to make your decisions?

A proven trading method is hard to come by. There are educators who have been trading Forex for banks and other institutions for many years. However they are still going to find it incredibly difficult to pass on their years of knowledge, at least not in the time most people want to go from knowing nothing about Forex trading (currency trading) to being an expert and making money with its as a business.

In sum, it is multidimensional. There are several aspects of absolute importance. These include strategy, both in terms of trading and money management, education - both initial and ongoing and focusing in on mastering a specific area whether that be a particular currency pair or aspect within the field - such as global economics of a particular country.





Learn Forex Trading - Professional Forex Training - What's the Buzz About?


So what is the buzz about trading Forex?

Well, I love what I am doing... I love it so much that I decided to demonstrate the Forex buzz with you. And if you give me ten minutes of your time, you too will understand why...

Forex is a potential solution for every single person looking to make more money; earn persistent income and take back control of their lives.

That is a huge statement, I know! But in these times of job loss, economic uncertainty and less money to make ends meet, there has to be a better solution than getting yet another job, or working twice as hard or downsizing your lifestyle.

Forex is a perfect solution! (I will explain why in a minute)

First, indulge me and take a look at your personal situation right now...

Take a minute and think about your lifestyle; your income; and how good (or challenging) life has been. Now, think about an additional monthly income that would financially take you to the next level... from getting ahead financially to being able to upgrade on whatever lifestyle choice you desire next. What is the income number you just thought of? Is it a modest $500 per month? Is it $5000 per month? Is it $20,000 per month? Now write out this statement:

(Don't be shy... be bold!) I would like to earn $_______________ more each month.

Now take a minute and think about your current job(s); current lifestyle; current free time... what options are available for you to increase your income by this amount? Do you see yourself achieving the additional income amount your just wrote down if you continue doing what you have been doing?

Will you need to (or can you) work harder? Can you ask for raise or get another job? Do you have the time (and tuition) to learn an entirely new profession?

If you are at all like me, the answers to the last three questions were no, no, and no!

So how do you get to this next level of income? For me, Professional Forex Trading has been the answer... and I think it can work for you too! I want to demonstrate how and why it has worked because I believe Professional Forex Trading is a real option for anyone interested in trading to earn additional, persistent income.

Hold on just a minute though. Before continuing, I want to make a distinction between trading and Professional Trading; and specifically how this applies in the Forex Market. There really is a huge difference! There are many people who trade, either actively or passively. But the vast majority trade without any trading education or a structured approach to the market. And their results are average at best.

Trading in general (which is non-professional trading) typically consists of:
• Acquiring as many trading tools, indicators, news and information as possible to make buying decisions (usually not selling decisions)
• Attempting to trade, but experiencing average or worse-than-average results
• Inconsistent execution leading to larger, uncontrolled losses and minimal gains
• Inconsistent risk management leading to the depletion of trading capital over time
• Years of frustration and mixed results that rarely ever achieve professional status

Perhaps that sounds familiar to you. It did for me.

Professional Trading (the kind I am now doing) consists of these keys:
1. Mastering statistically proven trading systems
2. Incorporating rigid risk management rules
3. A Business Plan optimized for the temperament and lifestyle of the trader
4. Proper Training by other Professional Trader(s)

And actually, these keys to Professional Trading, (professional meaning trading as part of your profession), are a formula that applies to every profession in the world! Consider a doctor (or lawyer, or accountant, etc...): if I gave you all of the tools, medical books and state of the art equipment doctors use today, could you walk in and perform surgery? Even if you were allowed to try, you would NOT be very good at it. Why not? What do aspiring doctors obtain before they have the confidence to perform surgery on their own? Well, you probably already know the answer. The aspiring doctor practices alongside other Professional Doctors until he builds the knowledge and skill set to take the next step and perform surgery on their own. They NEVER EVER are allowed to just 'try it themselves'. And thankfully, the medical community is structured to prevent anyone from just 'trying it on their own'.

It's a different story in the trading world, unfortunately. You can pretty much do what you want; all you need is some capital and any firm will open your account and let you begin to self-destruct!

Today, however, there are real solutions available!

If you want to create the persistent results of a Professional Trader, you MUST acquire the tools and practice alongside other Professional Traders already creating persistent results. PERIOD!

Then, only after you have the tools; have learned alongside other Professional Traders; and have practiced enough to build your own business plan, you can expect to go forward and create a persistent income stream for yourself. Without the Professional Trader by your side, you are just using your own capital to reinvent a very expensive wheel.

Great! So what does it take to learn Professional Forex Trading? (Glad you asked!)

The answer is easier than you may think... at least it is today! And that's where the buzz of Forex is building.

There are many firms touting Forex, but a relatively few firms popping up that are addressing the aspects of Learning Professional Forex Trading. One company in particular has developed an individualized structure far beyond what I have seen anywhere else. And, their approach is dedicated to applying the four keys to Professional Forex Trading mentioned above and applying them in the Forex market. Here they are again:

Professional Forex Trading consists of:
1. Mastering statistically proven Forex trading systems
2. Incorporating rigid risk management rules to preserve your capital
3. Creating a Business Plan optimized for your temperament and lifestyle
4. Proper Training from another Professional Forex Trader

Sounds nice, and if you are anything like me, the next question is, how can I possibly learn how to do this? My life is hectic as it is! (At least that is what I said.)

But you know what... there is a very real solution that has been structured to adapt to your schedule and provide you with live, professional guidance literally on-demand! (I will share where to find this environment in a moment.)

First, I want to demonstrate why Forex is the place to learn (vs. all of the other markets) and why this market is the best I have seen to learn to Professionally Trade Forex:

Forex is the easiest and most accurate market to trade.
The Forex market is the most liquid market in the world (and it continues to grow), meaning there are more people trading Forex than any other market! This makes it the easiest market for every single trader to get in and out of trades both easily and accurately.

Forex enables you to trade only when it's convenient for you!
Forex is available virtually on-demand. Forex is open for trading 24 hours a day for 5 days each week; making it available for every single trader to participate on-demand, on their schedule (and not during specific market times). This is the perfect opportunity to trade only when it's convenient for you!

Forex enables you to control 50 times your investment capital.
Forex offers traders considerable leverage for their investment; enabling traders to control 10-50 times their own trading capital. For example, a $1000 investment would control $50,000 worth of currency; compared to a $1000 investment in stock being able to control just $1000 worth of stock.

Professional Forex Trading is now available to individual traders in the convenience of their own office (or home) and at the times that most suits their schedule.

So, you may be asking 'where do I go?'...well, there lots of Forex trading firms and Forex trading systems available. Just do a search for Forex and you will have plenty to sift through. However, there is a short list of Forex environments that enable you to truly learn how to trade professionally from Professional Traders. So wherever you look, be sure to check for the four keys that must be included. Ask these questions:
- Do you provide statistically proven trading systems?
- What are your money management and risk parameters?
- What is the business trading plan that you will teach me to create?
- Who are the professional traders that will mentor me to success?
- Is there a live trading environment where the mentors are available 24 hours each day while the market is open?

Once you are trading professionally, you can take you business anywhere, but until you are a professional, if the firm or individual cannot provide good answers to all of your questions, consider going somewhere else to learn Professional Forex Trading.

There is one firm in particular that answers all four points and answers them so well, I ultimately signed up with their program. They have a live Forex trading environment open 24 hours a day and you are guided by their professional traders ever step of the way.

Remember, wherever you ultimately jump on the buzz of the Forex market, select a program most suited to your lifestyle and goals. Forex is the quickly becoming the part-time business of choice that is supplanting peoples 'day job' salaries.

Happy Trading!