Short recap
Asia in green
after strong US session yesterday
On Trump softer
on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood
Europe opening
flat to higher
ECB today likely
to confirm a gradual shift
But still not major change in wording
Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ
economy
Fed 4 hikes
warranted, eventually 5 in 2018 according to DB Securities
Trump’s tariffs plan not signed yet (today?)
Canada & Mexico exempt temporarily
11 members to sign TPP (US withdrew from the deal)
Beige Book –
prices rising, employment up moderately
Equities
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi
alliance getting stronger
Some Goldman
Sachs’ employees on notice to move to Frankfurt amid Brexit uncertainty
IKEA to
keep up investments
Boeing –
tariffs unlikely to impact plane prices but can hurt sales strongly
General Electric
still under pressure, valued at USD 125 bln (while in Jan 2018 at USD 580 bln)
S&P 500
still a bit rich after recent correction
But at
reasonable to attractive levels based on P/B, P/E or dividend yield relative to
10-yr Trys yield (2.88%)
Improving
earnings expectations and excess capital being returned to shareholders are
supportive as well
Huge risks is
coming from US economy bleeding from trade/tariffs war
Tech,
financials, industrial doing the best
S&P 500
Strong
resistance around 2800 level (high + 76.4% Fibo at 2795)
Resistance 2744
(61.8% Fibo), 2742 (50 DMA) and 2735
Support 2703
(50.0% Fibo), 2677 (100 DMA), 2663 (38.2% Fibo) and 2671
Source: Saxo
Bank
DAX
Strong
resistance around 12 745
Resistance 12
275 (76.4% Fibo & 10 DMA), 12 528 (61.8% Fibo)
Strong support
11 866
Source: Saxo
Bank
Bonds
10-yr Trys yield at 2.88% vs 2.86% yesterday
10-yr Bund yield at 0.66% vs 0.68% yesterday
Interest
rates are moving for the right reasons
This chart warns that the 30-year downtrend in interest
rates may be over link
USD following the US deficits again (budget and trade
balance)
Remember the end of dot.com bubble? Quite similar….
How Corporate
Debt Confirms The “Everything Bubble” link
EURUSD
Resistance is
fairly in place around 1.2555
Today a bit of
sense of hawkishness from ECB and…
…tomorrow bit of
weakness in earnings can push EUR above 1.2500
USD reaction to
US tariffs will show further direction
Support 1.2318
(23.6% Fibo & 10 DMA), 1.2172 (38.2% Fibo), 1.2268 (10 DMA)
Weekly –
anyone having fun with this chart?
…but a Dollar
decline rekindles reserve currency worries link
Crude oil
Is Aramco
share sale distorting OPEC policy? link
OPEC cuts played
well so far but the cost is losing market share to US shale
U.S. Oil
Output Set to Average 10.7 Million Barrels a Day in 2018, Highest on
Record link
2018 oil output
forecast to average 10.7 million barrels a day
Production
expected to top 11 million barrels a day in October
Cryptos
SEC urging
cryptocurrency exchanges to register
Data/events
ECB
Fri
BoJ meeting
US NFPs
Mar 12/13 – US bond auctions (10-/30- yr maturities)
Mar 21 – FOMC meeting (1 hike expected (market pricing at
86%) and 3 more in 2018 to be announced)
Mar 23 – US Fed gov spending deadline
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where
despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment
advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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