Jan 31, 2017 - Trump administration really don’t like weak EUR...

Trump administration really don’t like weak EUR...

• We will very likely hear more and more from Washington on EUR strength in the future

• As all comments come as a part of Trump marketing campaign and the plan to knock lower USD in order to support bringing jobs home effort

• Don't they recall the time when EURUSD was printing the highs around 1.6000 back in July 2008 and trading around 1.4000 level just back in May 2014?

• Or do they really believe that ECB still running a QE due to low core inflation, issues in Italy and political risks in EU, and Fed getting closer to hiking rates more and more is a currency manipulation? One would say it is a monetary policy divergence at this point of economic cycle with its natural consequences

• The Trump offensive keeps going on and making more and more adversaries then partners what may turn negative for US in mid-term

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Jan 31, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian markets lower on Trump immigration restrictions
Trump – just protectionism but no real economic policies yet – market not taking it well
EU markets mixed
BoJ – no policy change,  looking at steady economic recovery to push prices higher to 2% level without additional stimulus
Brexit parliamentary debate starting today, the Brexit bill should be passed despite some lawmakers being pro-EU

CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Ford criticized Trump’s immigration policies
Deutsche Bank to pay USD 425 mln and GBP 163 mln over money laundering activities of wealthy Russians
UniCredit declaring EUR 11.8 bln loss for 2016, looking at EUR 13 bln rights issue; declaring such a loss means not complying ECB capital requirements
US equities remaining attractive despite Trump’s policy; sector wise financials, energy, techs and as soon as we have more clarity, health care

EURUSD – markets seem to be short gamma
Risk reversals to favor EUR puts
Current market positioning can turn out to rapid moves if stop-outs are triggered

USDJPY – 112.50 support
If broken can see more gamma buying, short dated strikes 112-111.50
JPY and Nikkei 225 still the most sensitive to uncertainty

EURCHF/USDCHF – moving lower on risk off
But overall there is still no clear indication in interbank market what traders are buying

Gold - Trump helping a lot
1205 resistance, if broken, more buying may follow and eventually reaching 2017 highs around 1219 level (38.2% Fibo)

Oil – US production offsetting the OPEC cuts, thus pushing oil lower
Support USD 50.70 (WTI) and USD 53.50 (Brent)

Data
EZ – Inflation set to print new highs (+1.4% exp)
EZ – GDP to stay steady
EZ – Unemployment expecting no change
US – Consumer Confidence Index expecting a slide
US – FOMC starting two day meeting today

Good luck Champs!
 Mr Hawk
    DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Jan 30, 2017 - Live Market Coverage: US pre-open: Levels

Hi,

Please find below possible demand and supply zones based on 30 min charts with short comments and bias. DON'T TRADE them blindly, additional analysis is needed ! Follow Us on Twitter for further updates.

Join Us and check how we are trading these levels

FREE LIVE TRADING ROOM - click here

Pre-US session / intraday levels:

It's not an USD end as many expected ( as long as bulls are able to close DX above 100 on weekly chart ). Of course failure below 1,05 on EURUSD or fall below 115 on USDJPY did not help but there is no reason to blindly focus on one side only. 

Frankly, I thought that ECB and Trump inaguration will help USD to get clear direction but I wasn't right this time ( maybe because of caughing and sneezing, and spending 10 days in the bed or probably the range was the main reason lol ).

Another busy week ahead: BOJ, FOMC, BOE and NFPs ( just to mention few events ) and Monday most probably it's going to be range day ( despite opening gap...)...

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Jan 30, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian stocks and US futures lower on Trump’s immigration restrictions

EU markets to open lower

Allianz eyeing Australia’s QBE Insurance as a takeover target

Italy – issuing new bonds (EUR 9 bln) today, watch for spreads with Bunds to widen or not

US economy slowed as we saw wider trade gap due to a drop in soybean exports but steady consumer spending and rise in business investments to support the outlook

Gold had poor performance despite weaker USD

Equities moving higher but more noise to come in the short term

VIX printing new five year lows creating divergence between equities and other asset classes

Commitments of Traders (COT) as of Jan 24:

EUR – net short positions down to 4-month low on USD selling

Bonds – funds going long for a second week, while being short stocks – are they getting ready for a risk off market correction?

WTI – new record longs

Commodities in general – new longs, highest since 2014

  

Data

Trump euphoria fading from the market this week as we have busy data calendar US/Non US

Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (Dec) to reach new highs

US consumer spending growth (Dec) to accelarateprojected to accelerate

US Home Sales (Dec) to suffer from higher prices and low inventories Wednesday FOMCFriday US NFPsGood luck Champs!
 Mr Hawk
    DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Jan 29, 2017 - Weekly Macro W5

The coming week will be very busy and not only on the central bank front. We have BoJ Fed and BoE plus the Chinese PMIs which is considered being a leading indicator to the global growth. The end of the week will be about the US employment figures which can always move the market so be ready.... 

Monday

The first important data is the German CPI especially after speculation about eventual tapering appeared some time ago. Most of the analyst expect the CPI to rise to 2% year on year from 1.7% despite the expected monthly deceleration of -0.6%. In the afternoon the US data will be in the focus starting with Core PCE index and Personal spending, both expected the increase modestly. Later the afternoon US Pending Home Sales could spread some light on the housing market. Despite analyst expect growth between 0.5 and 1.6% I’m a little skeptical about any increase as historically January did not bring positive number in the past 5 years except last year. Let’s see...

Tuesday

We start with BoJ rate decision and monetary policy during Asian session, but no change is expected. However as always if there is a press conference that could add to volatility. After European open we have German Retail sales expected to rise modestly followed by ECB Draghi’s opening speech at joint conference of ECB and EC. In the afternoon loonie traders should keep an eye on Canadian monthly GDP and Raw Material Price Index both of them expected to increase. Later afternoon the Chicago PMI and CB Consumer confidence and while PMI is expected to rise the Consumer confidence should decline moderately after the last month jump. The oil currencies should be sensitive to the API Crude Oil Stock report in the evening. We finish the day with New Zealand labor market statistics where a moderate improvement is expected.

Wednesday

It’s a PMI morning and FOMC afternoon. At the beginning of the day we have very important PMIs from China and as these are kind of leading indicators to global growth, should be watched carefully (or at least traders should adjust position size due to gap risk). Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline slightly despite the improving Chinese figures. During European morning we have plenty of European manufacturing PMIs from Spain, Italy, France the Eurozone and the UK and most cases no change or slight decline is expected, but all should hold around 53-56 zone. In the afternoon we will focus on US, especially ADP Employment change and ISM Manufacturing PMIs. In the evening FOMC rate decision and Monetary policy statement without press conference, could add volatility although no significant change is expected in MP. However given the seemingly fragile dollar strength we could experience some fireworks.

Thursday

We will begin the day with Australian Trade balance and Building approvals. As both being very important part of the economy they will be crucial in assessing the next possible move of the RBA. The central bank is in a hold and wait mood after the last rate cut and the leadership change, the next meeting scheduled for February. The European morning will be about the United Kingdom as BoE will release Inflation report, Benchmark Rate and Monetary policy summary. No changes are expected but the volatility will likely increase in pound crosses, especially be ready during Carneys‘ speech. In the afternoon we will have another set of US job market data, most important Jobless Claims and Productivity. The increasingly tight labor market will sooner or later lead to increased wages and this will not add to the productivity. Don’t forget, this is still a key concern of FOMC.

Friday

Markit’s Chinese Manufacturing PMI will kick start the last day of this busy week. Likely there is only minor impact as it’s released few days after the official PMIs unless it would bring a huge surprise as it’s expected to hold at or near previous level. During the first half of the European session UK Services PMI can move the GBP crosses. If the PMI will increase this would be the fourth consecutive growth. This would mean the Service sector is much more relaxed about the UK leaving the EU despite the threat of London losing its European financial center status. The US employment situation report will be released in the afternoon with NFP, Average hourly earnings and Unemployment rate. We need to see here stability in NFP and increasing wages helping inflation to pick up, nothing more to add here. We will end the week with ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Factory orders and while PMI is expected to decline moderately, the factory orders should pick up after the drop in the data from November.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent.

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Jan 29, 2017 - Q4 Earnings - Week 3

Q4 Earnings – Week 2017-01-29

We are having pretty busycalendar this week with Europe kicking in too, so let’s focus on some important names:

Apple - analysts seem to be positive about the company with rising EPS expectations 4% over the past 6 months. The market is also looking at revenue making all time record within the range of USD 76-78 bln. The revamped iPhone 7 should help and what also may catch investors’ attention are comments about the smartphone industry and its trends.

On the negative side, the company is coping with Chinese competition, weakness in sales in Asia-Pacific region, where the high price tag is not in line with local market earnings power. Of course, not to forget to mention the effect of strong USD on the quarterly results.

Facebook – will be interesting to see whether the company after November disappointment and revising down the forecast is doing better. The combination of a strong push towards monetization of the social media space on one hand and the risk of deteriorating of user experience with lots of ads running on your Facebook account on the other is going to negatively impact the user experience, brand and retention.

Analysts expect a jump in the revenues, well supported with mobile-ads sales. Bear in mind that company valuation is around 100% premium to the average of S&P 500 valuation. Definitely, the forecast and the future developments in Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger are the place to be aware of.

Amazon – the Amazon Web Services with its approximately 55% y/y growth will be the place to watch, with overall company positioning within the cloud space still have the room to grow further. Not to mention the traditional e-commerce and the new activity of Amazon Go that will be a new physical supermarket.

Pfizer – market will be interested in new drugs introduction, drugs to treat cancer and how its generic brands do

Merck&Co – market will focus on drug treating the cancer

Visa/Mastercard – analysts are positive and expect rise in revenue on the back of payments growth and acquisition of Visa Europe (in case of Visa)

Name	Exchange	Date	Estimated EPS	EPS growth y/y	Estimated Revenue
Mizuho Financial Group	JP	Tuesday	4.55	-16.4%	521.344
Eli Lilly	US	Tuesday	0.98	26.0%	5.550
Pfizer	US	Tuesday	0.50	-5.5%	13.636
Exxon Mobil	US	Tuesday	0.70	5.1%	62.173
Mastercard	US	Tuesday	0.85	8.2%	2.786
Apple	US	Tuesday	3.22	-1.7%	77.400
Roche Holding	CH	Wednesday	6.66	…	13.242
Siemens	GE	Wednesday	1.67	-2.5%	19.587
Facebook	US	Wednesday	1.31	65.4%	8.507
MetLife	US	Wednesday	1.34	…	17.250
Volvo	SE	Wednesday	…	…	…
BBVA Banco	ES	Wednesday	…	…	…
Panasonic	JP	Thursday	…	…	…
Daimler	GE	Thursday	2.16	5.1%	41.310
AstraZeneca	UK	Thursday	1.12	19.0%	5.577
ING Groep	NL	Thursday	0.29	37.7%	4.230
Royal Dutch Shell	NL	Thursday	0.34	17.2%	68.236
Amazon	US	Thursday	2.68	47.2%	44.648
Visa	US	Thursday	0.78	13.3%	4.302
Amgen	US	Thursday	2.79	…	5.770
BCE	CA	Thursday	0.78	…	5.690
Deutsche Bank	GE	Thursday	-0.02	…	7.150
Dassault Systemes	FR	Thursday	0.62	…	…
Merck&Co	US	Thursday	0.89	…	10.250
Nokia	FI	Thursday	0.08	…	7.570
Philip Morris	US	Thursday	1.12	…	6.790
Vodafone Group	UK	Thursday	…	…	…
Ferrari	IT	Thursday	0.58	…	0.898
Infineon Technologies	GE	Thursday
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group	JP	Friday	17.96	-1.6%	1,006,590
ArcelorMittal	LU	Friday	0.01	…	14.030
Sony	JP	Friday	0.38	…	…
Toyota Motor	JP	Friday	…	…	61.930
Intesa Sanpaolo	IT	Friday	…	…	…

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Jan 28, 2017 - Land of Trading Live Trading Room Edu

Hi,
 please find below recording of our latest Free Live Trading Room ( 17th of January ) where we were looking for trading opportunities, enjoy !

Please don't hesitate to contact Us should you have additional questions.
We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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