Nov 9, 2017 - Market Update (Brexit saga continues - EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to come up with something, GE signing deals (USD 3.5 bln) in China Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales, 10-yr Trys yield key levels 2.27% & 2.50% to show DXY direction, EURUSD cluelessly waiting for US yields and stocks, Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue)

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher

US tax reform in place likely in 2019 on respecting proper budget rules

TPP – 11 countries at the table and discussing

UAE investigating financial transactions/assets of 19 Saudis at its banks

Brexit saga – EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to bring the bill otherwise not able to prepare for Dec summit

US & SoKo Navy to launch drills near Korean peninsula

Equities

General Electric signed 3 deals in China (USD 3.5 bln)

Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales

The Banco Santander laying off 2000 employees as part of Banco Popular take over

Tencent buying 12% of Snap

Earnings

Walt Disney – theme park revenues to help

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33% vs 2.31% yesterday

Key levels 2.27% and 2.50% for further DXY direction

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33% vs 0.33% yesterday

EURUSD

Volatility is extremely low, only central banks drive the market

Market not sure which way to go

Currently near fair value according to Barclays

USD needs to speed up otherwise we are again back to nowhere

Thus US yields the key, eventually stocks

Expiring options of note with strike 1.1600 (EUR 1.7 bln), much more between 1.1650-1.1700

Stops sitting below 1.1550

Bids sitting above 1.1500

Resistance at 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1620 (200 HMA), 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Support at 1.1590 (55 HMA), 1.1570/50, 1.1500, 1.1490 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Higher US yields and stocks helped

Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue

Resistance at 113.78 (10 DMA), 114.40/50, 114.72

Support at 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Data/events

Busy day with ECB speakers but Draghi firmly laid down dovish view few two weeks ago...

Any surprise today? As number of opponents is growing...

ECB’s Noy (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Mersch (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1345 GMT)

ECB’s Villeroy (1500 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann (1800 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1820 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Mar 13, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up with a grain of caution

EU mixed

US may give a 90-day notice to pull out from NAFTA

Trump-Merkel to talk on NATO, Putin, Ukraine

Article 50 may be triggered already on Tuesday

If bill with amendments approved in today’s vote

G20 to discuss currencies as well (Fri/Sat)

Mnuchin likely to brief partners on Trump agenda and currency valuations

G20 - GE FinMin Schauble and Buba Head Weidmann to hold press conference on Saturday

TPP members + China and South Korea to meet on Tue/Wed

To discuss next steps after US has pulled out

Goldman Sachs overweight China equities

HSBC Holdings to change CEO

BHP Billiton struggling to reach the deal with union at its Chilean copper mine (largest in the world)

Volkswagen plead guilty, settling for USD 4.3 bln

Touristic travel to US facing headwinds on strong USD and uncertainty over Trump’s immigration ban/steps

Big oil names exiting Canadian oil sands as they are more attracted by shale

Valeant Pharmaceuticals rolled its USD 30 bln debt obligations and extended the maturities

Blackstone getting ready to exit its private equity investment in Logicor (EU warehouses) for EUR 13 bln

ECB might have discussed whether to rise rates before the end of QE – good enough on Friday to push EURUSD to 1.0700 level

JP Morgan sees USDJPY at 105.00 level at year end (revised from 99.00)

On US addressing trade deficit and risk of US protectionism

Smets (ECB) not signalling a change in policy

Last week ECB was a reflection of somewhat changed reality

EURTRY above 4.000 on tension in a referendum preparation and campaigning in NL and GE

DXY off, support at 101.05 (50 DMA), 101.00 (76.4% Fibo) and at 100.81 (100 DMA)

EURCHF – getting ready for ECB policy change? No fundamentals behind, let’s watch the SNB on Mar 16

EURUSD – strong resistance around 1.0800/50

Draghi out today – a risk for newly established longs

Draghi speaking at G20 on Friday

FOMC committing to higher pace of rate hikes

Risk not priced in by the market at all

USDJPY hourly - Support at 114.30, resistance at 115.45 (Fibo levels)

Data

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger speaking (1245 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi speaking (1330 GMT) – risk to new EUR longs

US: Labor Market Conditions Index – expecting positive reading

This week will be busy:

Mar 13-14 – US budget draft to show first details of Trumps stimulus plan

Mar 15 – FOMC (25 bps hike expected)

Mar 15 – Dutch elections

Mar 15 – US debt ceiling deadline

Mar 16 – BoJ meeting (right after Fed hiking…)

Mar 16 – SNB meeting (to be watched as EURCHF is not behaving in a normal way)

Mar 16 – BoE meeting

Mar 17-18 – G20 FinMin meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More