Mar 8, 2018 - Market Update (ECB bit hawkish, tomorrow's US NFPs' earnings bit weaker can push EURUSD above 1.2500; EURUSD weekly - a funny joke 1998-2000; Fed- 5 hikes in 2018?; S&P 500 still a bit rich but reasonably attractive; USD and US deficit correlating as before dot.com bubble; USD decline impacting reserve currency status; Aramco IPO going against OPEC?)

Short recap

Asia in green after strong US session yesterday

On Trump softer on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood

Europe opening flat to higher

ECB today likely to confirm a gradual shift

But still not major change in wording

Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ economy

Fed 4 hikes warranted, eventually 5 in 2018 according to DB Securities

Trump’s tariffs plan not signed yet (today?)

Canada & Mexico exempt temporarily

11 members to sign TPP (US withdrew from the deal)

Beige Book – prices rising, employment up moderately

Equities

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance getting stronger

Some Goldman Sachs’ employees on notice to move to Frankfurt amid Brexit uncertainty

IKEA to keep up investments

Boeing – tariffs unlikely to impact plane prices but can hurt sales strongly

General Electric still under pressure, valued at USD 125 bln (while in Jan 2018 at USD 580 bln)

S&P 500 still a bit rich after recent correction

But at reasonable to attractive levels based on P/B, P/E or dividend yield relative to 10-yr Trys yield (2.88%)

Improving earnings expectations and excess capital being returned to shareholders are supportive as well

Huge risks is coming from US economy bleeding from trade/tariffs war

Tech, financials, industrial doing the best

S&P 500

Strong resistance around 2800 level (high + 76.4% Fibo at 2795)

Resistance 2744 (61.8% Fibo), 2742 (50 DMA) and 2735

Support 2703 (50.0% Fibo), 2677 (100 DMA), 2663 (38.2% Fibo) and 2671

Source: Saxo Bank

DAX

Strong resistance around 12 745

Resistance 12 275 (76.4% Fibo & 10 DMA), 12 528 (61.8% Fibo)

Strong support 11 866

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.88% vs 2.86% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.66% vs 0.68% yesterday

Interest rates are moving for the right reasons

This chart warns that the 30-year downtrend in interest rates may be over  link

USD following the US deficits again (budget and trade balance)

Remember the end of dot.com bubble? Quite similar….

How Corporate Debt Confirms The “Everything Bubble”  link

EURUSD

Resistance is fairly in place around 1.2555

Today a bit of sense of hawkishness from ECB and…

…tomorrow bit of weakness in earnings can push EUR above 1.2500

USD reaction to US tariffs will show further direction

Support 1.2318 (23.6% Fibo & 10 DMA), 1.2172 (38.2% Fibo), 1.2268 (10 DMA)

Weekly – anyone having fun with this chart?

Source: Saxo Bank

…but a Dollar decline rekindles reserve currency worries  link

Crude oil

Is Aramco share sale distorting OPEC policy?  link

OPEC cuts played well so far but the cost is losing market share to US shale

U.S. Oil Output Set to Average 10.7 Million Barrels a Day in 2018, Highest on Record  link

2018 oil output forecast to average 10.7 million barrels a day

Production expected to top 11 million barrels a day in October

Cryptos

SEC urging cryptocurrency exchanges to register

Data/events

ECB

Fri

BoJ meeting

US NFPs

Mar 12/13 – US bond auctions (10-/30- yr maturities)

Mar 21 – FOMC meeting (1 hike expected (market pricing at 86%) and 3 more in 2018 to be announced)

Mar 23 – US Fed gov spending deadline

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 9, 2018 - Market Update

European equities seem to be in a quite and cautious mood today after yesterday's red day. US futures are up a what gives additional comfort to the market is also the calm in FX. Bonds are getting slightly sold but yields are not moving very high.

It is an interesting situation when stocks got sold off heavily over the last two weeks but bonds and FX were not significantly impacted. In other words, there was no direct rotation out of stocks to bonds, what may be seen as a profit taking in stocks only as bonds barely moved.

Bond yields remain elevated but not spiking or moving rapidly higher. JPY is a proxy of safe heaven flows is offered today but seeing a bit of unrest in EM space. Let's see what will come up with US open and where we close tonight.

At he moment, despite lots of cautious about another wave of algos and systematic investors selling to adjust to their portfolios based on risk/volatility inputs we see currently S&P 500 around 2600/10 level and DAX around 12 100/200 as good points to re-enter the market to benefit from FOMO flows that may eventually start even today.

But bear in mind to manage your risk appropriately also in the light of upcoming weekend, especially if we do not see the US stocks moving higher on FOMO flows. If that happens, we can also get ready for another Monday risk off sentiment behaviour as there is still lots of moving sitting in selling volatility related products.

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 6, 2018 - Market Update (No recession short-term, healthy correction done, no global contagion, so let's hunt for bargains; One Fed hike is priced off; Watch today for Trys yields, JPY crosses, VIX; New turning points for VIX at 22 & 30; XIV a problem for Credit Suisse; BNSF Railway (part of Berkshire) joining Blockchain in Transport Alliance; Hedging by book: long gold, JPY, 10- and 30-yr Trys; The panic is over, moving to the last leg up of 2009 bull run;German coalition talks well covered blockchain)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

US Congress to vote on government funding

German coalition talks well covered blockchain technology to make Germany a fintech hub

Draghi not ok with EUR volatility due to potential inflation miss

Kuroda – no near-term hikes

Question – what now?

Honestly, I am not sure either…

…as Janet is celebrating and Powell not being able to find the “Buy” button

Market is down and Trump focussing on long term fundamentals and not the short term sell off

It reminds me local CEE politicians who cheer and show up in the public only in good times

Let’s sum up a bit

S&P 500 was 12% above 200 DMA – markets do not stay very long 10% above 200 DMA

(for regular bull market it is between 5-10%)

Technicals showed way-overbought markets

Most of the market followed the same direction (robots, ETFs, investors selling volatility) for months/years

Selling volatility/insurance and now covering positions

But after market dropping more than 6% all start to hedge (thus more selling)

S&P 500 found support at 2538 (200 DMA) after touching low of 2530

DAX didn’t care about 200 DMA and found support around 2015 highs, 2017 support levels

And below 12 275 (76.4% Fibo) after printing 12 141 low

VIX skyrocketed above 33 (up 113% on a day) but corrected (25+ levels signal market fear)

XIV (short volatility ETF) plunged (speculation that Credit Suisse lost USD 500 mln)

Let’ wait for official comments

Hedging based on history

Long Gold – pretty unmoved (sitting right below resistance zone (1357-1375)

Long JPY – sitting right lows of 108.12/107.31 acting as support but not very affected

Long 10- and 30-yr Trys – enjoyed very decent rally yesterday

Why to hedge?

CBs believe in rising rates globally on inflation pressures and strong growth

But China is slowing down and coping with huge credit problems

US economy topped, EU to follow soon and as Japan population is old, the lag

Example from 2011 – losses prior week, losses on Monday, more at the open on Tuesday

And recovery taking more than half a year…

What to do next?

As there is no recession risk near term, the healthy correction & late stage bull market panic is done

Stock markets will hopefully find their calm soon

So we can focus on hunting as a part of final leg up of the bull market that started back in 2009

…but be aware of:

FX, EM unaffected (EM equities down only 5%) – a positive sign

One Fed hike is priced off; If volatility continues another one can get priced off

No global contagion – a positive sign  

Watch today for Trys yields, JPY crosses, VIX (can fly in both directions with turning points at 22 or 33)

JPY 1m ATM vols (jumped from 6% to 10%)

Equities

Broadcom bidding for Qualcomm (USD 121 bln)

Bayer to sell more assets (seeds/pesticides) to please EU as it buys Monsanto

Elliot Advisors don’t like BHP’s dual listing (among other things)

Energy stocks still worth of looking at (also multiplied by recent sell off)

Boeing keen on a new mid-market jet

Bristol-Myers still behind Merck with cancer drugs testing data

Apple and Cisco come together to work with insurance companies on cyber policy products

Banks moving away from models to stock picking on new research rules

BNSF Railway (part of Berkshire) joining Blockchain in Transport Alliance

Earnings

Allergan, GM, Gilead Sciences, Walt Disney

S&P 500 daily

DAX daily

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.65% vs 2.86% yesterday

Yield at 3.00% a buying opportunity?

10-yr Bund yield at 0.73% vs 0.76% yesterday

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's Brutal Week Is Even Worse in South Korea  link

So-called kimchi premium disappears amid government clampdown

Bitcoin prices globally are sliding to their lows of the year

Data/events

ECB’s Weidmann (0900 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1350 GMT)

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Mar 4 – Elections in Italy

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Dec 5, 2017 - Market Update (Brexit and US tax bill market movers, EU to review US tax bill and its implications, S&P 500 & DAX - what's next?, Apple to start to paying back taxes to Ireland in Q1 2018 (EUR 13 bln), Toll Brothers facing lack of skilled labour - an issue for home builders across US)

Short recap

Asia took a break

Europe opening flat to slightly up

US tax bill refining continues as the bill moves from Senate to the House before it lands on Trump’s table

Many have changed the wording from tax reform bill to tax bill

AMT getting challenged as many companies may loose the tax break and pay the 20% alternative minimum tax

EU to assess US tax bill and its global tax implications

Brexit still not moving to phase 2 as getting stopped at Northern Irish border

CBOE launching Bitcoin futures on Dec 10 while CME on Dec 18

Equities

US stocks saw another day of out of Techs rotation

But market was overall down on a small positive long term impact of tax reform

Sanofi having hard time in Philippines

Thyssenkrupp-Tata Steel merger facing unions

Dialog Semiconductor not happy with Apple developing its own battery saving chips

Apple to start to paying back taxes to Ireland in Q1 2018 (EUR 13 bln)

Toll Brothers to report better results on the back of strong job market but facing lack of skilled labour

That may not be the best thing for luxury home builder

S&P 500 daily – a correction back to 2475 level means down 7.1%

Source: Saxo Bank

DAX daily – range bound with 13 047 (100 DMA) support 

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%

EURUSD

US yields keep showing direction for USD

As USD bulls may get frustrated with inability to decisively break 2.40% yield in 10-yr Trys

Resistance 1.1870 (10 DMA), 1.1886 (61.8%), breaking 1.1961 high would be seen as a new direction setter

Support 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014/15 decline), 1.1794 (100 DMA), 1.1758 (50 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Not able to break above 113.00 level

Resistance at 112.82 (50 DMA), 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Support 111.89 (38.2% Fibo), 111.68 (200 DMA), 111.57 (100 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1281-86 (50/100 DMA)

Support from rising trendline holds, then 1267 (200 DMA) and 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/events

EU FinMin meeting

ECB’s Constancio

US Senate banking committee votes on next Fed chair Powell

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Dec 21 – BoJ

Dec 21 – Catalonia elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 20, 2017 - Market Update (No Jamaica in Germany, Leadership in EU on pause, Risk taking at record levels, Mugabe still in but already out, Norwegians not counting on oil/gas, EURUSD to keep hawkish tone above 1.1675-1700 zone, Gold to test medium-term resistance at 1306)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

No Jamaica coalition in Germany – Merkel can still form a minority government

No history of minority government or new election creating more uncertainty

Merkel to meet president, German leadership in EU on pause

What worked in difficult 2000s and 2010s years not working anymore

Pragmatism, conservativism and stability to be replaced

Zimbabwe’s Mugabe not willing to resign yesterday

But a new deal is on the table with full immunity

Goldman Sachs sees Fed hiking 4 times in 2018

Lloyd Blankefein was heard that many would like to have confirming Brexit vote

Excessive risk taking at record level

‘Irrational Exuberance’ May Rule the Roost in Stock Markets  link

BAML fund-manager survey shows risk taking at all-time high

Investors see stocks as overvalued but bullish on growth

Equities

Volkswagen taking it seriously and investing EUR 23 bln in development

Apple not on time with smart speaker HomePod for Christmas

Tesla short of cash soon to ask for new money

To keep financing trucks, roadster and acceleration of production

Norway sovereign wealth fund to remove oil and gas companies

From its benchmark and cut their holdings

S&P 500

Resistance 2581 (10 DMA), 2589, 2597-2600

Support 2554 (23.6% Fibo), 2549, 2544

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.36%

EURUSD

Support area 1.1675-1700, 1.1710 (200 HMA),1.1714 (high from Aug 2015), 1.1747 (100 DMA)

Resistance 1.1759 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1771 (50 DMA), 1.1778 (55 HMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

US tax reform, Germany and USD in play

Top range 1306 level needs to be taken off decisively

In order to break medium-term resistance

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1306

Support 1287 (50 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1280 (100 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Nowotny (1145 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1215 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1400 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1415 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1600 GMT)

EU Council meeting

CEE bankers conference

Wed

ECB Governing Council (no interest rate announcement)

FOMC Minutes

Thu

ECB Minutes

US Thanksgiving – markets closed

Fri

US bond trading close, stocks open halfday

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 20, 2017 - Market Update (US Senate moving on budget, US jobless claims hitting multidecade low - positive on spending/GDP/inflation/USD, Catalonian bank run, S&P 500 tested the support around 2544/40, Earnings to set the tone for today's trading, Schlumberger results important for correction in energy stocks)

Short recap

Asia up after some hesitation at the beginning

Europe opening higher

US Senate moving on 2018 budget, next step towards tax reform

US jobless claims hitting multidecade low what means more people working, more money for spending

As consumption is 60% of US GDP, we can see in the future higher GDP growth pressuring up inflation

Merkel positive on Brexit progress but not at the stage to move to trade talks

Catalonian separatists supporting bank run what may send shockwaves across equity markets in Europe

BoJ’s Kuroda – to continue with powerful QE

Equities

Stocks had a test day yesterday on Catalan risk, speculations about high valuations and weaker earnings

Bias still negative today – a correction before weekend coming? Well, depends on earnings now…

S&P 500 tested the support (now around 2544/40) with resistance between 2573/75

But US Senate move with 2018 budget to reflect positive in today’s session

Apple hit by weak demand for iPhone 8

Greek banks Piraeus, National and Alpha looking to sell EUR 5.5 bln of bad loans

Nestle beefing up restructuring cost

Earnings

Weak in Europe – a strong EUR an issue or what?

Not stellar in US with slow revenue growth – are investors going to punish companies with sell off?

On the other hand low bond vs dividend yields still supportive for equities

Today: Daimler (disappointed), GE, Schlumberger, P&G, Honeywell

Energy market will focus on Schlumberger as any disappointment in outlook

Can translate into energy stocks correction that is already sitting on support

Little bit of perspective of Black Friday sell off in Oct 1987:

Few words as well…  link

  

…and back to today’s reality:

If all market participants are buying, there is no bear that can get converted to bull

If it is the case, there are no other buyers left…

  

But still some thoughts from Warren Buffett – video (49 min)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.39%

EURUSD - ready to correct big time and trading below parity? Next week's ECB holds the key as the 2yr Trys-Bunds spread is at extreme  link

  

DXY

200 WMA at 93.05 critical

EURUSD

Expiring options at 1.1800 (EUR 1.5 bln), then 1.850-55 (EUR 1.4 bln)

Likely to range 1.1800/50 today unless we get a surprise…

Resistance at 1.1847 (50 DMA), 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1880, 1.1910

Support at 1.1800/10 (200 HMA), 1.1787 (Ichimoku), 1.1750, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Supported by higher yields on US budget news

Resistance at 113.43 with stops sitting above 113.50

To test 114.00, then 114.50 but stops above both levels

Exporters can be seen above 113.50

Support at 112.48 (10 DMA)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance at 1289 (10 DMA)

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1276 (100 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank 

Data/events

China National Congress (Fri/Sat)

EU Summit (Fri/Sat)

Czech parliamentary elections (Fri/Sat)

BoJ’s Kuroda (0635 GMT)

Fed’s Mester (1800 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (2330 GMT)

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom 

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Apr 11, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia cautious under geopolitical risks (Syria, N. Korea and upcoming FR elections on Apr 23)

Europe opening lower

China said No, thank you to coal from North Korea and fully loaded ships are heading back home

G7 pressuring Putin to stop supporting Syria regime

Yellen said nothing new yesterday

Looks like Fed is happy where they are right now

Trump meeting top business leaders today to discuss their support for his plans in infrastructure and taxes

Elliott Management working on changes at BHP Billiton to benefit the strategy

Bain Capital and Cinven on the way to acquire Stada (EUR 5.3 bln)

Swift and Knight Transportation planning to merge their operations (USD 5 bln)

Gold-S&P 500 correlation - S&P 500 way above Gold since Nov elections

Which one will give up?

Either S&P 500 will correct or Gold will spike to catch up…

S&P 500 – support at 2280 (38.2% Fibo), may be looking at resistance at 2390 or higher to 2430

But bear in mind that “Sell in May and Go away” is very close

DAX – below former support 12 190 and then 11 850 to keep the medium term rising view in place

EURUSD – support at 1.0566 (23.6% Fibo)

Trading slightly below the rising support trendline

Bollinger bands started to expand what may indicate bearish view if EURUSD stays below trendline

Yesterday’s bond buying report from ECB showed that the bank keeps firing at full cylinders and is buying corps heavily

Daily purchases were at around EUR 483 mln level (as mentioned yesterday the average was EUR 365 mln)

All of that is happening despite the taper in place since Apr

If the ECB is tapering while corps buying is much higher than before, it points to ECB is buying much less govies

Not to forget we may have seen some pre-loading before Easter’s low liquidity in corps space as well

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.19% - very close to the lows

French elections

Question is how much risk is priced in EUR and Bunds ahead of FR elections

Are we going to see the risk-on moves and a huge risk repricing in EUR and Bunds?

At the moment the EURJPY steady decline may be an indication of what market thinks…

GE-FR yield spread widening again as we are getting closer to Apr 23

EURUSD 1m ATM implied vols jumped substantially to 12.58 level from around 8.50 just few days ago

Goldman Sachs was out yesterday recommending to short OAT futures as a strategic positioning ahead of elections

Data

EZ: Industrial Production expected to edge higher

US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index to keep the positive trend

US: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey expected slightly higher

Short week ahead of Easter holidays, thus lower liquidity

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 5, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher but very safe on Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday

While PMIs better

China back after holiday helping markets

Europe opening lower

BoJ reduced purchases of short term gov bonds (1-3 yr space)

Brexit – households planning to reduce spending

UK planning to abandon the clean energy commitments what may in turn make Brexit talks with EU harder

North Korea firing a missile ahead of Trump-Xi meeting…a smart decision?

Deutsche Bank lost few executives after bonus payout

ChemChina got another green light to buy Syngenta (USD 43 bln) after receiving US antitrust approval

EU to review the deal by Apr 18

Daimler-Bosch to partner in self-driving cars

A self driving Mercedes taxi a dream? Well, not anymore in the future…

Another victim from retail space vs e-commerce fight is Ralph Lauren closing its store on Fifth Avenue

S&P 500 getting cornered by descending trendline and 50 DMA

Trump-Xi meeting or US NFPs a catalyst?

Oil higher on tightening seen in the market

Iron futures up

Gold failed to break through resistance at 1257 (200 DMA) again and staying close though

Needs 10-yr yield to break below 2.30% or get some support from USDJPY falling below 110.00 level

Support at 1236, Resistances at 1257 than 1273, 1292

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.26%

Global yields higher on rising oil

Peripheral spreads unchanged after FR presidential debate

GE-FR spread at 65, not very changed yet

French bonds can see some bids today

FX implied volatility falling down pointing to markets desperately in need of catalyst

Likely the 2.30% level in US 10-yr Trys can serve as one or outcome of Trump-Xi meeting

If positive, USD may benefit

USDJPY – close to 109.50 level that may be a good entry for reversal

And move higher to attack the Dec/Jan highs around 118.00/50 range

Data

EZ: Composite PMI – no major revision expected

US: ADP Employment Report expected slightly lower

US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index expected slightly lower

FOMC Minutes – markets looking for any wording on balance sheet reduction

Thu:

ECB Draghi, Weidmann and Praet speaking (especially Draghi’s remarks on inflation will be closely watched)

ECB Minutes

Trump to meet Chinese president

Trump to use trade to wage on North Korea

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

Fred Williams, James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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