Nov 21, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Crude trader’s focus back on fundamentals, oversupply

After a week of increased uncertainty following the anticorruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia, the focus is re-shifting toward fundamentals again. A Tuesday sell-off was triggered by the IEA monthly report where the agency reduced its’ global demand forecast by around 100k bpd in contrary to the last OPEC Monthly report from a day earlier. The bears got some additional support in the evening from the increased oil inventories reported by API. The next day the official government data confirmed the oil stock accumulation but didn’t cause additional selling as the main damage was done on Tuesday.

Although the crude jumped up 2.6% on the last trading day of the week, further rally will need some geopolitical support as the fundamentals seems to be improving. The US oil production hit new multi month record at 9.65 mil bpd and it seems the crude output is on its way to reach 10 mil bpd in a few months time. Additional pressure came from Russia with its wavering support for the extension of the OPEC production curb deal. The cartel has a schedule meeting on 30th November where the member states should decide whether to extend the agreement beyond March 2018.

The next important oil related reports are:

Tuesday – EIA Monthly Energy Review and API weekly oil stocks and refinery operations

Wednesday – EIA weekly petroleum status report

For the technical view please check the weekly WTI chart:

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

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