Friday is be the NFPs day but it's only a part of the Job report data released the same time at GMT 12:30 (among others the Average hourly earnings and Unemployment rate are also scheduled). The Non Farm Payrolls is probably the most watched US employment indicator. The average expectations are as high as around 180K and already some analysts are saying that the forecasts could be a little too optimistic...
Few facts:
- US employment is rising steadily supported almost only by full time employment while part time started to decline slowly
- The US is close to full employment with an unemployment rate below 5%
- Seeing the decline in a growth of employed people is normal as the economy is approaching full employment
- The positive surprise in July still keeps the markets hoping
- The overall trends and underlying momentum in labour market are in place and should stay there despite a possible negative surprise due to seasonality
But…
- Looking at August historical data we should be ready for a negative surprise
- The summer seasonality and weak regional PMIs may not produce a big number
- Also watch the revisions of the previous data, which often cause a secondary effect.
You can also check our piece on the comparison of full time and part time employment in the Story of the Week section.
Don't forget to watch your risk and be consistent in your trading!
Happy Friday
Mr TechMan
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team's view on past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not and shouldn't been viewed as an investment advice and the creator of this material shouldn't been hold liable for any loss resulting from action where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.
Few facts:
- US employment is rising steadily supported almost only by full time employment while part time started to decline slowly
- The US is close to full employment with an unemployment rate below 5%
- Seeing the decline in a growth of employed people is normal as the economy is approaching full employment
- The positive surprise in July still keeps the markets hoping
- The overall trends and underlying momentum in labour market are in place and should stay there despite a possible negative surprise due to seasonality
But…
- Looking at August historical data we should be ready for a negative surprise
- The summer seasonality and weak regional PMIs may not produce a big number
- Also watch the revisions of the previous data, which often cause a secondary effect.
You can also check our piece on the comparison of full time and part time employment in the Story of the Week section.
Don't forget to watch your risk and be consistent in your trading!
Happy Friday
Mr TechMan
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team's view on past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not and shouldn't been viewed as an investment advice and the creator of this material shouldn't been hold liable for any loss resulting from action where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.
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