Thursday 6 July 2017

July 6, 2017 - Market Update (Trump in Poland, EUR - lower global use on high hedging cost, EURUSD - focus on Minutes & 1.1300 with lots of expiring options, USDZAR - central bank to be nationalized, Gold supported by geopolitical risks, ExxonMobil, Shell, Total courting Qatar gas, Volvo - green from 2019, Nokia sharing patents with Xiaomi)

Short recap

Asia mostly in red
Europe opening higher
Trump in Poland to reassure about commitment to Eastern Europe through gas and military support
Before meeting with Putin
Also to outline the future relationship with Europe as such


FOMC Minutes show a split and no timing on balance sheet reduction
US ready to use force against North Korea but looking for a diplomatic solution
EUR experienced lower use as international currency and as a funding currency last year
Due to high hedging cost against its decline using swaps

Equities

ExxonMobil, Shell, Total getting closer to win the big share of a Qatar gas pie despite local tensions
Vantiv buying Worldpay for USD 10 bln
Marc Cohodes known for his short selling activities now targets Exchange Income after taking on Valeant and Home Capital previously
Stating that rich dividend is not supported
Novo Nordisk having some safety issues with insulin pens in Canada
Nokia signing a patent deal with Xiaomi (guys don’t forget that Nokia is sitting on thousands of patents that can/do bring a nice cash flow)
Car sharing biz getting tougher as Avis’ Zipcar leaves Austrian market after Car2Go (Daimler) and DriveNow (BMW, Sixt) are tough to take on
Volvo to sell hybrid or electric cars from 2019 only
Such moves to create pressure within the industry as well as on auto parts producers
Tesla breaking down the rising trendline on lower demand

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%
10-yr Bund yield at 0.47%

DXY

Support at 94.70 (76.4% Fibo)
Resistance at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo)

EURUSD

Market watching 1.1300 (post election high) on the back of recent correction and today’s ECB Minutes
10 DMA at 1.1336 and 1.1344 (38.2% hourly Fibo) providing some support
Further resistance/support levels come from hourly Ichimoku

But large expiring options sitting at 1.1290/00 (EUR 2.1 bln), 1.1320/30 (EUR 1.5 bln)

USDJPY

Flat yields helped to mute the move higher
Resistance from declining trendline
Support at 112.24 (61.8% Fibo), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)

USDZAR

Yesterday’s announcement of intention to nationalize the South African central bank which is privately held
Pushed the cross spiking to 13.5000
Resistance 13.4253 (200 DMA) and 13.5547 (23.6% Fibo)
Support 13.3166 (38.2% Fibo)

Gold

Getting support from geopolitical risks
After the sell off and JPY stabilisation
Support at 1214
Resistance at 1231 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline

Data/Events

ECB Minutes
Fed’s Williams (0745 GMT)
ECB’s Praet (1000 GMT)
Fed’s Powell (1400 GMT)
Fed’s Fischer (2330 GMT)

July 7 – US NFPs
July 7 – Fed to publish its semi-annual report on mon pol (1500 GMT)

July 7/8 – G20 meeting
Trump meeting Putin while Merkel hosting them
Trump readying for a steel fight and withdraw from international talks on financial regulation

July 12 – Yellen testifying before Congress (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)
July 20 – ECB meeting
July 26 – FOMC meeting


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



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