Thursday 18 January 2018

Jan 18, 2018 - Market Update (Apple with USD 38 bln tax bill, bringing home USD 250 bln; Renault-Nissan a king over Volkswagen; Goldman Sachs dropping bond trading?; GE still on short side; Junk bonds spreads at record lows, China/Japan getting rid of Trys - nothing new; USDRUB floor between 55.70-56.00; Brent having hard time to stay above USD 70 mark; Biggest Bitcoin mines in China)


Asia hitting record levels
Europe opening higher on bullish sentiment from US and Asia 


China growing too fast with respect to economic and pollution standards
Trump fighting back China with intellectual property breaches (likely getting ready for Davos)
Loud calls for EZ reform with new fiscal rules (GE) and joint safe assets (FR)

Equities

Cyber security start-ups having hard time
As very crowded market is moving fast and facing criminal predators, competition is a tough job
Volkswagen produced 10.7 mln cars last year
But the crown goes to alliance of Renault-Nissan though
Peugeot looking to come back to US market using know-how of Opel
Chinese interested in diabetes business from Johnson&Johnson (USD 3-4 bln)
Apple planning to open 2nd Campus in US that is a part of 5-yr USD 30 bln investment package
And also repatriate USD 250 bln of overseas cash, thus paying USD 38 bln of taxes
Looking to create 20k jobs in US, focussing on data centers for iCloud, AppStore and Apple Music

Earnings

Goldman Sachs hit by a drop in bond trading
What makes question marks about keeping bond trading in current form
Or searching for new profit generating activities
Adjusted profit beat expectations but company is having harder time in trading than rivals
GE shares keep declining on USD 11 bln of charges and likelihood of a breakup
…already touched the GE story: Nov 15, 2017 – Story of the Week: Comparing old and new economy…General Electric and Tesla  link

Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, IBM, AMEX reporting

New US corporate tax cut should help earnings to be revised higher


Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.59% vs 2.56% yesterday
10-yr Bund yield at 0.57% vs 0.55% yesterday

Not only China but also Japan is lowering their Trys holdings  link
Back in 2004/05 both China and Japan held 50% of all Trys held by foreigners
And now they do 36% only


Junk bonds - The Great Credit Dilemma: When to Quit After Historic Rally?  link
Corporate bonds too expensive to own, but too valuable to sell
Schroder, Aberdeen fund managers plot exit strategies


USDRUB

Rising oil makes Russian officials not comfortable with strong RUB
As we saw back in 2017, they are quite good at defending certain levels
Support at 56.20 and 55.72 (Apr 2017 low)
Resistance at 56.73 (10 DMA), 56.76 (Sep/Oct 2017 lows), 57.20 (23.6% Fibo)

USDRUB weekly


Source: Saxo Bank

Crude Oil

Supported by decline in private inventories in US
And attacks from rebels in Nigeria
EIA inventories and OPEC Monthly report out today
With speculations about another decline in oil stocks and substantial rise of shale production

Brent having difficulties to stay above USD 70 level
Support 69.06 (10 DMA), 68.19 (23.6% Fibo), 66.84 (38.2% Fibo), 64.91 (50 DMA)
To watch the 66.84 key level


Source: Saxo Bank


WTI
Support 63.15 (10 DMA), 62.75 (23.6% Fibo), 61.43 (38.2% Fibo), 58.77 (50 DMA)



Source: Saxo Bank

Bitcoin miners locations
…or where is the cheap electricity and smart people are…


Data/events

ECB’s Weidmann (0800 GMT)
ECB’s Coeure (1430 GMT)
ECB’s Villeroy (1730 GMT)
Fed’ Mester (2305 GMT)
IMF’s Lagarde to speak today as well

Jan 19 – US fiscal deadline
Jan 23-26 – Trump in Davos with his crew
Will be interesting to see Macron/Merkel and the world
Against protectionism of Trump/US
Jan 23 – BoJ – any hints on potential taper?
Jan 25 - ECB
Jan 30 – US State of the Union
Trump to announce an infrastructure plan but is not clear who would build the infrastructure
Because of his anti-immigration policies
Jan 31 – FOMC
Feb 5 – Powell as Fed Chair
Feb 16 – Chinese New Year



Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!


Mr Hawk




  
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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