Short recap
Asia in red
Europe opening flat to slightly higher
Very quiet in the markets…
North Korea still an issue, preparing another
launch before weekend (Sep 9 a holiday in NoKo) as it moves ICBM to the launch
place
BRICS meeting going on in China, but China not
taking any actions against NoKo
China the key player even if US, SoKo and JP decide to
act
US pushing for new UN sanctions likely targeting Chinese
banks doing biz with NoKo
Crypto currencies had a tough day yesterday after
China banning the new issue (ICOs)
Bitcoin down 16%, likely more regulations coming
Hurricane Irma getting stronger
Fed Dec hike at 40%
JPY losing its safe haven status to gold on North
Korea risks link
Equities
More defensive stance warranted like higher exposure
to utilities, telecom, health care, consumer staples or gold miners
Europe – more neutral after EUR rise, US
more positive on USD decline
Volkswagen not selling Ducati (EUR 1.5
bln), at least for now
Air Berlin keeps flying with the help of GE government
United Technologies buying Rockwell Collins
(USD 30 bln) – a nice shift in the aerospace supplier space
That is still fragmented, premium is above 7% (still low)
what may attract other bidders
Bonds
10-yr Trys yield at 2.13% vs 2.16% yesterday
Yields to go lower, to be watched after US holiday
10-yr Bund yield at 0.37% vs 0.38% yesterday
EURUSD
Slight bid tone on NoKo tensions
If no geopolitical events, may revisit 1.1700/50 area
And eventually correct further to 1.1400/1500 level
As a part of 4th wave correction and Draghi
impressing the market
Daily/Monthly RSI showing significant divergences
Monthly 23.6% Fibo at 1.1661, 38.2% Fibo at 1.1409
But overall little action before ECB
If Draghi doesn’t deliver 1.1950 is the next…
Resistance at 1.1950, 1.1980, 1.2070
Support at 1.1892 (55 HMA), 1.1892 (10 DMA), 1.1845
(23.6% Fibo)
USDJPY
110.00 as a ceiling due to risks holds
Bias slightly lower with bids at 109.20/00
Institutionals may be buying on downside
Key support at 108.26
JPY/Gold – JPY is not a safe haven as it used to
be
As it lags the rally in gold by huge margin
But only in current NoKo tensions when rockets fly over
Japan
Gold
Entire metal space seems to be overbought
Resistance in sight at 1375
Strong support at 1300/10
Data/events
BRICS’ summit in
China
Fed’s Brainard
(1130 GMT)
Fed’s Kashkari
(1630 GMT)
Fed’s Kaplan (2300
GMT)
Thu
Mester (Fed)
Dudley (Fed)
ECB – Draghi to address a strong growth and low
inflation vs still rising EUR
ECB is very
concerned about EURUSD level & pushing any taper talks to Dec
Expecting dovish
ECB with no hawkish surprise at all
Draghi to talk down
EUR, if he delivers spot can move to 1.15/1600 territory
If not, the 1.1950
if the next…
Let’s get ready for
low yield for longer period (not only from ECB)
Economic growth not
impacted by strong EUR yet
Fri
Fed’s Harker
Sep 19-20 FOMC
Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected
Is UK sort of
reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?
Sep 29 – US debt
ceiling deadline
Oct 18 – China
National Congress
Norway is getting out of everything but dollars,
euros and pounds link
To read as it is an
interesting shift in Norwegian wealth fund strategy
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where
despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment
advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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