Short recap
Asia in red
Europe opening lower
ECB kept its policy unchanged
Draghi stayed dovish, has not offered any
clear indication on what’s next
Despite strong EUR pushing inflation lower and
economy doing well
Ifo head warning of next EZ crisis
Market keeps testing upside in EURUSD
North Korea (important
public holiday 9.9. may be topped by another missile test) and Irma risks present – going unhedged
to the weekend?
Equities
Eicher Motors interested in Ducati (USD 2
bln)
BMW firing on all cylinders to start mass
production of e-cars
To compete with Tesla with 12 models by 2025
EURUSD at 1.2100 will be noticed by EZ stocks
Likely to change the sentiment, hitting DAX
An opportunity from Harvey/Irma as insurance
(-12%), leisure stocks were hit yesterday
Insurance down 12%, while during Katarina declined 5%
only
Hedging by S&P 500 makes sense
Amazon kicking out competition among cities in US
By announcing plans to build 2nd HQ (USD 5
bln)
Apple likely to face supply shortage and delays in
new iPhone production
Eli Lilly to cut off 8% of workforce
JPMorgan making consumer, retail and internet
divisions to work closer
Best (Alibaba behind) launching IPO in US
(USD 930 mln)
Bonds
10-yr Trys yield at 2.04% - dipped lower in Asia
trading
The dip below 2% may see more declines
10-yr Bund yield at 0.29%
Investors unloading property bonds linked to Texas (hit
by hurricane Harvey)
DXY
Below 2016 low at 91.88, closing there today?
If it does, more USD weakness is likely with target
around 89.00 area
Close above may confirm the lows in USD
Lower capital demand, thus growing USD supply has
negative effect on USD
Trump needs to deliver (tax reform for companies to
increase investments) and Fed to hike to support dollar
EURUSD
Dovish Draghi but EUR higher…
As effects of higher EUR are offset by lower yields
1.2000 is the fair value based on models
Resistance at 1.2071
Market pricing first hike in June 2019
Area between 1.1850/1.2050 may be a new playground until
FOMC and next ECB
USDJPY
Breaks 2017 low at 108.12
Heading to 105/106.00
Below 108.00 level looks attractive to Japanese investors
Gold/Platina
Resistance in sight at 1375/80 (Fibo 38.2%/2016 high)
Well supported by mix of low US yields, weak USDJPY,
increasing amount of bonds trading at negative yield
Raising speculative positions and option hedging
Platina can catch up the gold rally soon, as it trades at
discount
Oil
Harvey hit the oil biz in US and what about Irma that is
stronger?
Decline in inventories offset by decline in production
and refinery demand keep the oil rally in check
But getting to unsustainable levels with WTI getting
closer to USD 55
Risk of correcting to USD 50
Data/events
ECB’s Weidmann
(0900 GMT)
Fed’s Harker (1245
GMT)
Fed’s Dudley
Sep 19-20 FOMC
Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected
Is UK sort of
reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?
Sep 29 – US debt
ceiling deadline
Oct 18 – China
National Congress
Oct 26 ECB
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where
despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment
advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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