Thursday 2 February 2017

Feb 2, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian markets inched higher
EU markets to open lower
After sharp rise in stocks of crude oil the price are higher today what is on the back of OPEC and other producers cutting production
Japan's pension megafund GPIF to invest in US infrastructure (for example: high speed rail projects in Texas and California...etc.)


Facebook surprised the market when proved contrary to recent mobile ads speculations
UniCredit going for EUR 13 bln rights issue priced at 38% discount to market price after declaring the EUR 11.8 bln loss for 2016
The fresh capital is crucial to comply with ECB capital requirements
Deutsche Bank Q4 earnings impacted by lower client trading activity, reporting loss of EUR 1.6 bln vs EUR 7.3 bln in 2015
Tier 1 ratio higher to 11.9% from 11.1% but still should be able to rise additional capital if needed
Bonds spreads of IT, ES, PT and FR widen on higher inflation epxectations and scaling back of positions peripheral bonds

FOMC

Statement was very neutral as expected and some may found a bit of hawkishness in it
But more cautious then bond markets expected, not to forget last hike was just 6 weeks ago
Markets pricing March hike at 30% down from 35%
Looking at 2 hikes this year on improving data

FX

Had a tepid market reaction as there are no indications of moving to new levels
Market watching US yields, ATM vols if moving higher and whether the RR favoring USD puts
USDJPY – sitting on 112.50 support line
Saw some buying of 112 and 111.50 strikes

Data

EZ: ECB Economic Bulletin – will be scrutinized by market as we saw a jump in headline inflation and better growth figures
EZ: Mario Draghi's speaking at 1215 GMT – any hints on inflation and growth?
UK: BoE Inflation Report – what about reaction to rising prices?
US: Job Cut Report – will be watched ahead of Friday’s NFPs and after strong ADP report; expecting lower figure
EZ: As the prices are moving up ECB should act but...the energy is the bigger component driving the inflation:

Core 0.9%
Headline 1.8%
Energy 8.2%

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk




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