Wednesday 22 February 2017

Feb 22, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian markets on positive note
EU to open higher
BoJ planning to be more transparent with announcing specific dates for bond buying operations (likely to avoid recent surprise moves)
Kuroda: ready to easy more


US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin-IMF Lagarde: IMF to evaluate FX levels and police FX policies
Fed Mester – at full employment, prices raising but don’t want to surprise the markets
US VP Pence delivered the marketing message of support for EU and NATO this weekend
But week earlier Chief Strategist Bannon had a different view
Spain is really firing at all cylinders with 2016 exports of EUR 255 bln from EUR 160 bln in 2009
Proof that the reforms they did earlier with weaker EUR work well for them

DAX to push higher behind 12 000 mark on strong data
US stocks with strong momentum but getting overvalued
Usually stocks grow with rising bond yields until 10 yr US Trys hit the levels around 3.9%
So there is still room but since US election we’ve got too high to fast

Daimler planning to build a plant near Moscow to produce Mercedes-Benz cars
It is a first major investment after announcing sanctions
Verizon agreed with Yahoo on lower takeover offer due to cyber attacks on Yahoo

EUR weakness not USD strength
Daily pivot: 1.0558
1st daily support: 1.0502
2nd daily support: 1.0468
3rd daily support: 1.0412
76.4% Fibo: 1.0455, the level 1.0450/60 next strong support range
Low from 1997 at 1.0416
Then the lows of 1.0340 only

Gold weakness seen more against EUR than USD
XAUEUR printing new highs

Brent crude getting tighter as we get closer to potential squeeze
As calendar spreads for upcoming expiries rose substantially
What in turn can make the storing of oil outside US a losing trade

10 yr US Trys yields lower on softer PMI data yesterday but erased the loses later on
Currently at 2.45%, still below important resistance at 2.51/52%
GE-FR spread hitting 78 bps again on Le Pen

Data

GE: Ifo Business Climate Survey – to confirm the overall strength of GE economy, no big surprises expected
US: Existing Home Sales – set to surprise on positive side

FOMC Minutes – markets still not taking the Mar 15 meeting seriously despite Yellen’s testimony from last week
Minutes can shed a bit more light on whether Fed is eyeing to raise rates in March

Fed Powell speaking today, as he is a possible successor of Yellen
It is worth to watch him as he may provide additional clues on March hike amid strong figures from US


Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



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