June 14, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

The Russian dust around Trump is settling down

And we go back to work to crunch through hard data and policy execution

Softer Brexit talk and EU is opening the door for UK to stay

Equities

Renault-Nissan surprised investors with specially created vehicle for undisclosed bonuses for top management

A shadow of unclarity surrounding Banco Popular fall down

Verizon-Yahoo deal done, Mayer is a history

GM taking it seriously about electric autonomy cars

Apple issuing USD 1 bln of special bonds in a support of green projects

As Trump backs away from Paris climate agreement

…a nice action with a bit of branding building

Postponed US banking reform to postpone global initiatives

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.20%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.26%

DXY

Markets have experienced recently some USD buying from leverage names against EUR and CHF

While selling from real money going to FOMC

Should FOMC keeps hawkish wording, USD to benefit

If not, USD sell off to be small and short

Support at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo), 96.90 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo), followed by 99.26 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

What’s next? 1.0500 again or 1.1500?

Resistance at 1.1231 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1200, 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Critical resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.58 (200 DMA)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Gold

Double top

Resistance at 1275 (10 DMA), 1276 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1264 (38.2% Fibo), 1261 (50 DMA), 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Eventually, 1245 (61.8% Fibo and 100 DMA) depending on how hawkish FOMC wording will be

Upcoming Data/Events

IMF’s Lagarde speaking

ECB’s Weidmann speaking

ECB’s Constancio speaking (0815 GMT)

FOMC meeting

Dovish hike priced in

Market can get surprised if Fed keeps talking hawkish

Forward guidance critical (Yellen holds a press conference) in the light of inflation development

Economic projections to be released

As well as details on balance sheet reduction (USD 4.5 trln) are expected

…all of that in the light of today’s US CPI release

Do not forget that US economy usually doing better in H2

Thu/Fri – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

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