Short recap
Asia up
Europe opening higher
China-Iran to conduct join naval practice in the
Gulf
Iran firing over Syria
Trump doesn’t like Cuban salsa
Macron doesn’t need a coalition partner for
important economic reforms
France has a huge potential if he delivers
PBOC made a huge CNY 110 bln OMO liquidity
injection
Stating the declining liquidity after banks bought gov
bonds (official statement)
Japan reported a surprise huge trade deficit
on energy imports while exports made a fast jump on cars/steel
Fed’s Kaplan – Fed should be very cautious and
patient in rising rates
Lots of speakers this week, let’s see whether others
share the same hawkish view as Yellen does (check Data calendar below)
Macron, Schauble and now GE’s Zypries
would welcome UK’s U-turn in Brexit
Equities
US groceries shaking on Amazon buying Whole
Foods and Aldi entering the market
Is it going to end up for Wall-Mart as for Tesco
in UK?
Do you like car makers? Watch for those with more
exposure to China
As US auto sales to decline further on expiring
leases pushing prices of used cars lower
Petrobras looking as an opportunity as it cuts debt but
is still valued below industry average
Fiat-Chrysler exiting Japan?
Airbus upgraded its A380 to boost the sales
Bonds
10-yr Trys yield at 2.16% - still holding close to recent
lows but the break of 2.10% would be critical for USD
10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%
COT report as of last Tue (pre-FOMC/ECB):
EUR long specs at 79k vs 74k week before
Highest since 2007
But bear in mind that any extreme is reverted to the mean
in some time
Are we going to expect the same long specs reduction as
we had witnessed in 2011/2014 ?
EURUSD
Support at 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo) then 1.1120/30
Resistance 1.1284, 1.1295/1.1300
Breaking 1.1100 or 1.1300 would definitely see strong
flows and follow through
USDJPY
Likely heavy going to 111.50
Resistance at 111.24 (50.0% Fibo), then 111.32 and 112.16
Ichimoku
100 DMA at 111.85
Support at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.71(200 DMA)
Descending trendline around 111.00
DXY
USD consolidation on halt?
To watch the US 10-yr yields breaking 2.10% or not
Need better US data to push real yields higher, so risky
assets keep rising and financial conditions tightening
Close to resistance at 97.62, then 97.85 (50.0% Fibo)
And descending trendline around 97.98
Support at 97.02 (10 DMA)
Gold
Still under pressure post-FOMC
Support at 100 DMA at 1248, 1245 (61.8% Fibo)
200 DMA at 1237 and 1234 (76.4% Fibo)
Resistance at 1255 (50.0%)
Data/Events
No relevant data
today but to watch speakers:
Brexit talks
starting today at 0900 GMT
Barnier and
Davis speaking at 1630 GMT
ECB’s Lautenschlager (0900 GMT)
Fed’s Dudley (1200 GMT)
ECB’s Nouy (1300 GMT)
ECB’s Weidmann (1500 GMT)
Fed’s Evans (2300 GMT)
Tue
Fed’s Fischer, Rosengren, Kaplan
Wed
Brexit - Queen’s speech 1030 GMT
Thursday
EU Summit
Fed’s Powell
Fri
Fed’s Bullard,
Mester, Powell
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where
despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment
advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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