Thursday 8 March 2018

Mar 8, 2018 - Market Update (ECB bit hawkish, tomorrow's US NFPs' earnings bit weaker can push EURUSD above 1.2500; EURUSD weekly - a funny joke 1998-2000; Fed- 5 hikes in 2018?; S&P 500 still a bit rich but reasonably attractive; USD and US deficit correlating as before dot.com bubble; USD decline impacting reserve currency status; Aramco IPO going against OPEC?)


Short recap

Asia in green after strong US session yesterday
On Trump softer on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood
Europe opening flat to higher


ECB today likely to confirm a gradual shift
But still not major change in wording
Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ economy

Fed 4 hikes warranted, eventually 5 in 2018 according to DB Securities
Trump’s tariffs plan not signed yet (today?)
Canada & Mexico exempt temporarily
11 members to sign TPP (US withdrew from the deal)
Beige Book – prices rising, employment up moderately

Equities

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance getting stronger
Some Goldman Sachs’ employees on notice to move to Frankfurt amid Brexit uncertainty
IKEA to keep up investments
Boeing – tariffs unlikely to impact plane prices but can hurt sales strongly
General Electric still under pressure, valued at USD 125 bln (while in Jan 2018 at USD 580 bln)

S&P 500 still a bit rich after recent correction
But at reasonable to attractive levels based on P/B, P/E or dividend yield relative to 10-yr Trys yield (2.88%)
Improving earnings expectations and excess capital being returned to shareholders are supportive as well
Huge risks is coming from US economy bleeding from trade/tariffs war
Tech, financials, industrial doing the best


S&P 500

Strong resistance around 2800 level (high + 76.4% Fibo at 2795)
Resistance 2744 (61.8% Fibo), 2742 (50 DMA) and 2735
Support 2703 (50.0% Fibo), 2677 (100 DMA), 2663 (38.2% Fibo) and 2671




Source: Saxo Bank

DAX

Strong resistance around 12 745
Resistance 12 275 (76.4% Fibo & 10 DMA), 12 528 (61.8% Fibo)
Strong support 11 866




Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.88% vs 2.86% yesterday
10-yr Bund yield at 0.66% vs 0.68% yesterday

Interest rates are moving for the right reasons

This chart warns that the 30-year downtrend in interest rates may be over  link






USD following the US deficits again (budget and trade balance)
Remember the end of dot.com bubble? Quite similar….



How Corporate Debt Confirms The “Everything Bubble”  link



EURUSD

Resistance is fairly in place around 1.2555
Today a bit of sense of hawkishness from ECB and…
…tomorrow bit of weakness in earnings can push EUR above 1.2500
USD reaction to US tariffs will show further direction
Support 1.2318 (23.6% Fibo & 10 DMA), 1.2172 (38.2% Fibo), 1.2268 (10 DMA)



Weekly – anyone having fun with this chart?


Source: Saxo Bank

…but a Dollar decline rekindles reserve currency worries  link



Crude oil

Is Aramco share sale distorting OPEC policy?  link
OPEC cuts played well so far but the cost is losing market share to US shale

U.S. Oil Output Set to Average 10.7 Million Barrels a Day in 2018, Highest on Record  link
2018 oil output forecast to average 10.7 million barrels a day
Production expected to top 11 million barrels a day in October



Cryptos

SEC urging cryptocurrency exchanges to register



Data/events

ECB

Fri

BoJ meeting
US NFPs

Mar 12/13 – US bond auctions (10-/30- yr maturities)
Mar 21 – FOMC meeting (1 hike expected (market pricing at 86%) and 3 more in 2018 to be announced)
Mar 23 – US Fed gov spending deadline



Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!


Mr Hawk



  
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Tuesday 13 February 2018

Feb 13, 2018 - Commodity Weekly: Suffering commodity space offered nice trade opportunities

A great week for traders is behind, the volatility finally arrived to the commodity markets and more sectors had nice moves during this period. The biggest movers were in the Energy sector were oil and distillates joined the falling natural gas as the updated 2018/19 predictions of increasing US production surprised the markets. The Agri sector had on the other hand nice upside moves caused by weather worries.


Oil
The EIA last week surprised markets with increased estimates of oil production for 2018 and also 2019 by 320 and 330k bpd respectively. According to the updated estimates the US reached 10M bpd oil production already in the first week of February. This was more than 300k bpd more than a week before. The news triggered intensive selling but from the COT data covering positioning until end of Tuesday trading the reduction of speculative longs wasn’t significant. However the second half of the week probably brought some additional long covering. Technically the H&S pattern on daily WTI crude chart worked perfectly brining 5 dollars per barrel profit for short sellers. WTI closed the week below the psychological $60 level and now markets are eying the weekly inventories and the IEA monthly report (to be released on Tuesday) for more direction.


Corn
The grain sector got support from the drought in Argentina, significant for soybeans and corn while the wheat prices surged on the news of insufficient rains across the Great Plains made winter wheat struggling. Only 14% of Kansas wheat was in good or excellent conditions. For corn the USDA estimates lower production, higher consumption and lower stocks which is a perfect mix of bullish factors, however for the rally to be confirmed some key levels have yet to be broken. Last week the biggest obstacles were technical selling and farmers increased hedging activity. The levels to watch ahead are 365 and 370 for the closest corn contract.


Sugar
The two main Brazilian sugar producers announced last week that they are going to focus on ethanol production as much as possible given the fact that sugar is traded at 30% discount to ethanol. This kind of news usually should give boost to prices however the follow up was completely missing and the raw sugar prices were stuck in a tight range. The huge sugar production from India and the increasing European refined sugar supplies are still weighing on the market of the sweetener. However the huge speculative short positioning limits the space to open additional shorts and the market is currently ahead of the decision which direction to go: back into the broken trend-line or droping toward new lows.


Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016-2018. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com




Friday 9 February 2018

Feb 9, 2018 - Market Update


European equities seem to be in a quite and cautious mood today after yesterday's red day. US futures are up a what gives additional comfort to the market is also the calm in FX. Bonds are getting slightly sold but yields are not moving very high.



It is an interesting situation when stocks got sold off heavily over the last two weeks but bonds and FX were not significantly impacted. In other words, there was no direct rotation out of stocks to bonds, what may be seen as a profit taking in stocks only as bonds barely moved.

Bond yields remain elevated but not spiking or moving rapidly higher. JPY is a proxy of safe heaven flows is offered today but seeing a bit of unrest in EM space. Let's see what will come up with US open and where we close tonight.

At he moment, despite lots of cautious about another wave of algos and systematic investors selling to adjust to their portfolios based on risk/volatility inputs we see currently S&P 500 around 2600/10 level and DAX around 12 100/200 as good points to re-enter the market to benefit from FOMO flows that may eventually start even today.

But bear in mind to manage your risk appropriately also in the light of upcoming weekend, especially if we do not see the US stocks moving higher on FOMO flows. If that happens, we can also get ready for another Monday risk off sentiment behaviour as there is still lots of moving sitting in selling volatility related products.



Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!



Mr Hawk






DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Tuesday 6 February 2018

Feb 6, 2018 - Market Update (No recession short-term, healthy correction done, no global contagion, so let's hunt for bargains; One Fed hike is priced off; Watch today for Trys yields, JPY crosses, VIX; New turning points for VIX at 22 & 30; XIV a problem for Credit Suisse; BNSF Railway (part of Berkshire) joining Blockchain in Transport Alliance; Hedging by book: long gold, JPY, 10- and 30-yr Trys; The panic is over, moving to the last leg up of 2009 bull run;German coalition talks well covered blockchain)


Short recap

Asia in red
Europe opening lower


US Congress to vote on government funding
German coalition talks well covered blockchain technology to make Germany a fintech hub
Draghi not ok with EUR volatility due to potential inflation miss
Kuroda – no near-term hikes

Question – what now?

Honestly, I am not sure either…
…as Janet is celebrating and Powell not being able to find the “Buy” button
Market is down and Trump focussing on long term fundamentals and not the short term sell off
It reminds me local CEE politicians who cheer and show up in the public only in good times

Let’s sum up a bit

S&P 500 was 12% above 200 DMA – markets do not stay very long 10% above 200 DMA
(for regular bull market it is between 5-10%)
Technicals showed way-overbought markets

Most of the market followed the same direction (robots, ETFs, investors selling volatility) for months/years
Selling volatility/insurance and now covering positions
But after market dropping more than 6% all start to hedge (thus more selling)

S&P 500 found support at 2538 (200 DMA) after touching low of 2530
DAX didn’t care about 200 DMA and found support around 2015 highs, 2017 support levels
And below 12 275 (76.4% Fibo) after printing 12 141 low

VIX skyrocketed above 33 (up 113% on a day) but corrected (25+ levels signal market fear)
XIV (short volatility ETF) plunged (speculation that Credit Suisse lost USD 500 mln)
Let’ wait for official comments

Hedging based on history

Long Gold – pretty unmoved (sitting right below resistance zone (1357-1375)
Long JPY – sitting right lows of 108.12/107.31 acting as support but not very affected
Long 10- and 30-yr Trys – enjoyed very decent rally yesterday

Why to hedge?

CBs believe in rising rates globally on inflation pressures and strong growth
But China is slowing down and coping with huge credit problems
US economy topped, EU to follow soon and as Japan population is old, the lag

Example from 2011 – losses prior week, losses on Monday, more at the open on Tuesday
And recovery taking more than half a year…


What to do next?

As there is no recession risk near term, the healthy correction & late stage bull market panic is done
Stock markets will hopefully find their calm soon
So we can focus on hunting as a part of final leg up of the bull market that started back in 2009

…but be aware of:

FX, EM unaffected (EM equities down only 5%) – a positive sign
One Fed hike is priced off; If volatility continues another one can get priced off
No global contagion – a positive sign  
Watch today for Trys yields, JPY crosses, VIX (can fly in both directions with turning points at 22 or 33)
JPY 1m ATM vols (jumped from 6% to 10%)

Equities

Broadcom bidding for Qualcomm (USD 121 bln)
Bayer to sell more assets (seeds/pesticides) to please EU as it buys Monsanto
Elliot Advisors don’t like BHP’s dual listing (among other things)
Energy stocks still worth of looking at (also multiplied by recent sell off)
Boeing keen on a new mid-market jet
Bristol-Myers still behind Merck with cancer drugs testing data
Apple and Cisco come together to work with insurance companies on cyber policy products
Banks moving away from models to stock picking on new research rules
BNSF Railway (part of Berkshire) joining Blockchain in Transport Alliance

Earnings

Allergan, GM, Gilead Sciences, Walt Disney

S&P 500 daily



DAX daily



Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.65% vs 2.86% yesterday
Yield at 3.00% a buying opportunity?
10-yr Bund yield at 0.73% vs 0.76% yesterday

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's Brutal Week Is Even Worse in South Korea  link
So-called kimchi premium disappears amid government clampdown
Bitcoin prices globally are sliding to their lows of the year

Data/events

ECB’s Weidmann (0900 GMT)
Fed’s Bullard (1350 GMT)

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year
Mar 4 – Elections in Italy


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!


Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Feb 6, 2018 - Commodity Weekly: After the support of weak dollar commodities seem to join selloff

After a supportive week of depreciating dollar commodities are getting hit by sell off in equities and overall negative sentiment in risk assets. While the dollar should have been helping commodities rise, it wasn’t entirely the case even last week and the air was filled with tension especially after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday where the Fed noted inflation is on track. The most negative impact was on the Energy sector, Grains are holding relatively well and Sugar had also a few good days as investors were probably liquidating some of their shorts.



Oil
The more aggressive central bank outlook scared investors all over the market place and made them scale back on the positions built in the last year. Oil traders joined the crowd in selling their positions although the selloff wasn’t that aggressive as in equities ahead of a series of monthly report. Tuesday we have EIA and next Monday Opec and Tuesday IEA Monthly oil reports will give us a hint how these institutions see the development of market fundamentals.


Corn
The sector of grains saw a good week after news about drought in South America (corn and soybeans) and Kansas, Oklahoma (winter wheat) made traders liquidate a huge part of their shorts. However the magnitude of short covering increased the likelihood of additional selling if negative news will not be confirmed.



Sugar
The huge short that was built up during the last year is the biggest obstacle ahead of the bears despite the negative fundamentals persist. The raw sugar #11 traded in New York could not break the 13 cents psychological support last week and this changed the sentiment into more bullish, or at least less bearish. The prices rallied recently up to 13.90 that was most probably caused by the liquidation of some of the shorts at least. We will know more before the week end.



Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016-2018. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

Friday 2 February 2018

Feb 2, 2018 - Market Update (NFPs day but a high bar for USD to rise, Trys rising but where is the USD?, Rising yields challenging stocks (dividend/higher financing), Strong EUR to weight on EU stocks soon, Italy in or out?, eBay dumping PayPal and going for Adyen, Insurers to sell cryptos theft protection)

Short recap

Asia lower
Europe opening mixed


Strong EUR to weigh on EU stocks soon
10-yr Trys yield above 2.75% putting pressure on stocks
As dividend yield is not as attractive as before and cost of financing for companies is getting higher
With recent rise in US yields, economic numbers and improving earnings season
Are we going to see one 50 bps hike among all three hikes expected in 2018?

Equities

Apple likely to return half of USD 285 bln of cash to shareholders
Amazon.com enjoying a record USD 2 bln profit
Royal Dutch Shell attacking Exxon Mobil position of biggest cash generator
Daimler on the spending spree for electric and autonomous vehicles this year
eBay dumping a privilege partnership with PayPal
Adding a Dutch fintech Adyen to payment service
Insurers looking at protection against cryptos thefts
Saudi Arabia in strategic talks with China, Japan and SoKo before Aramco listing

Earnings

Chevron, Exxon Mobil reporting in the light of higher oil prices. Any surprises?
Merck

A bit of reflection…

Seems like 2-yr Trys yield is giving more than dividend yield of S&P 500 stocks on average or…
Market Euphoria May Turn to Despair If 10-Year Yield Jumps to 3%  link


Is the excess money from bond markets flowing to equities or does it mean something else?


Something like valuations are extremely high?





Number of Americans thinking about stock markets being higher in one year from now hitting multidecade records:
Well, two many too bullish…


Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.79% vs 2.73% yesterday (20 bps from 3.00% mark)
30-yr Trys yield above 3.00%
Yield curve keeps flattening despite recent spike in short term yields
But 10-yrs touching 3% could help USD
Credit spreads in speculative bond space have been tightening over the past years
With lots of money flowing there, higher Trys yields may reverse flows
If US yields keep rising what in turn can send volatility waves across all markets
VIX is already trading above 10, the level that acted as a resistance for quite some time

10-yr Bund yield at 0.73% vs 0.70% yesterday
More and more EZ bond yields moving above zero level

Italy in or out?

Probability of Italy leaving EZ still elevated since Constitutional vote
ECB and Bank of Italy have a problem – holding over EUR 100 bln of debt
Once ECB stops tapering, IT bonds will suffer on the back of debt to GDP ratio being higher than pre crisis
Thus sending shock waves through periphery
Luckily, majority of the public supports more EU integration
Despite immigration and EU criticism
Parliament elections (Mar 4) to be a lose call


PIMCO: The Fed is quietly trying to engineer an inflation overshoot  link

There's been a distinct shift in currency markets that explains why the US dollar is getting hammered  link
Something strange is underway in currency markets at present…

EURUSD

Markets focussed on USD weakness and potential ECB taper, now holding pretty firm
Bids sitting below 1.2490
Stops seen above 1.2540-50, if broken we can visit highs of 1.2570 and 1.2602
To watch also 1.2597 (61.8% Fibo of 1.3992/1.0340 move)
EUR 1.1 bln options with strikes between 1.2495-1.2500 expiring today
Important 1.2516 (38.2% Fibo of 1.6038/1.0340 move)
Support 1.2398 (10 DMA), 1.2305 (23.6% Fibo) and descending trendline (highs 2008, 2011, 2014)

USDJPY

BoJ special operations helped the cross higher
Offers seen ahead of 109.75, 110.00 and stops above
Bids may be around option expiries (USD 2.3 bln strikes 109.00-35)
Support 109.45 (10 DMA), 109.06 (76.4% Fibo) and 108.12 & 107.31 lows
Resistance 110.14 (61.8% Fibo)

Crude Oil

Crude oil - US producing 10 mln barrels a day, putting enormous pressure on OPEC
But strict adherence to production cuts by OPEC and Russia support the prices
China overtaking US as a biggest crude importer
Latest correction seems not to do any harm to long speculative positions held by funds
GS upgraded Brent forecast that should hit 82.50 level by summer

Bitcoin

Well, few accounts holding huge amounts  link



 …and 13 exchanges trading 40% of the volume:



Data/events

ECB’sCoeure (1000 MGT)
ECB’s Villeroy (1400 GMT)

US NFPs

Bar high for any surprise to support USD
Payrolls 180k exp vs 148k prior
Unemployment rate 4.1% exp vs 4.1% prior
Average earnings (m/m) +0.3% exp vs +0.3% prior
Average earnings (y/y) +2.6% exp vs +2.5% prior
Strong labour market supporting consumptions
But earnings may disappoint despite minimum wage and bonus increases
If not, market will start to speculate about quicker rate hikes this year

Fed’s Kaplan (1830 GMT)
Fed’s Williams (2030 GMT)

Feb 3 – Powell taking office as Fed Chair (he is a lawyer and not economist)
Feb 16 – Chinese New Year
Mar 4 – Elections in Italy



Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!


Mr Hawk




  
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom


Thursday 25 January 2018

Jan 25, 2018 - Market Update (Trump up, Mnuchin down but market is concerned about who will buy US debt; ECB - just up is a problem but Draghi likely not to say anything again); EURUSD set to check 1.2500; Weaker USD good for equities; Gold - make or brake the 1380, then 1484...?; BofA with most blockchain patents; Qualcomm fined USD 1.2 bln by EU; Mexican drug cartels stealing fuel

Short recap

Asia mixed to lower
Europe opening lower


Trump a year ago – USD strength means confidence in US and his presidency
Mnuchin yesterday – USD weakness good for US economy
…and market took it as a future direction of US policy
In other words the US trade war has begun and weak USD is part of it
Market is concerned about widening current account deficit (a problem for USD)
But bigger one is that there are still less and less international investors who like to buy Trys
IMF’s Lagarde – USD value determined by markets
Bitcoin buyers getting more ground
China to tighten control over offshore private equity fundraising
Mexican drug cartels stealing fuel from refineries (USD 1 bln of lost government revenues)

ECB today

Lots of speculations about policy shift – not expecting any change, may be some word playing in March
Recent move in EUR creating some headaches for ECB as inflation levels still low
Unlikely ECB will come up with something hawkish, we need to wait until summer
So growth and inflation have more time to surprise
Draghi to touch FX rates with dovish comments after recent rise in EUR
EUR not overvalued
S&P – strong EUR to delay tapering

EURUSD

USD still under pressure with psychological 1.2500 in sight
Likely to test important 1.2516 (38.2% Fibo of 1.6038/1.0340 move)
Then 1.2597 (61.8% Fibo of 1.3992/1.0340 move)
Support from descending trendline (highs 2008, 2011, 2014)
The 1.2400 may help to push some longs off, to open door towards 1.2300-90 zone
1.2166 (50.0% Fibo), then 1.2092

USDJPY

Interest in USD from importers and retail after o/n decline
Bids sitting at 108.50
Large options (USD 2.3 bln) with strike at 110.00 expiring today
Support 109.06 (76.4% Fibo) and 108.12 & 107.31 lows
Resistance 110.14 (61.8% Fibo)

Equities

Lower USD = higher global equities for time being…
As we have easier credit conditions
And profits of US companies artificially higher due to weaker USD

BofA owning more blockchain patents than peers
SEC looking into GE’s huge insurance charge
Company planning to sell USD 20 bln of assets
Goldman Sachs and Citibank shortlisted to bid for metal business of Scotiabank
EU fines Qualcomm (USD 1.2 bln)
Bombardier and Boeing to hear decision over dispute on Friday

Earnings

Reporting today: Biogen, 3M, Caterpillar, Intel (update on security issues), Western Digital, Celgene, Starbucks

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.64% vs 2.62% yesterday
10-yr Bund yield at 0.58% vs 0.56% yesterday

No boom to doom for central Europe's bonds when ECB stimulus ends  link



Gold

Facing strong resistance zone where it got rejected in 2014/16/17
Mnuchin, weak USD, inflation up, geopolitical risks supporting gold
More investors using gold as a hedge for potential spike in volatility
With HFs aggressively buying since Dec
Resistance 1375 high, 1380 (38.2% Fibo), 1484 (50.0% Fibo) both based on 2011/15 decline


Source: Saxo Bank 

Data/events

ECB rate decision

Jan 26 – Trump speaking in Davos (1300 GMT)
Will be interesting to see Macron/Merkel and the world
Against protectionism of Trump/US
Jan 30 – US State of the Union
Trump to announce an infrastructure plan but is not clear who would build the infrastructure
Because of his anti-immigration policies, may be Norwegian workers
But having no idea how many of them will come
Also to announce a new security policy moving away from fighting terrorism
And focussing on challenges from growing military strength of Russia and China (more military spending coming)
Jan 31 – FOMC
Feb 3 – Powell taking office as Fed Chair (he is lawyer and not economist)
Feb 16 – Chinese New Year


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!


Mr Hawk


  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom