Mar 8, 2018 - Market Update (ECB bit hawkish, tomorrow's US NFPs' earnings bit weaker can push EURUSD above 1.2500; EURUSD weekly - a funny joke 1998-2000; Fed- 5 hikes in 2018?; S&P 500 still a bit rich but reasonably attractive; USD and US deficit correlating as before dot.com bubble; USD decline impacting reserve currency status; Aramco IPO going against OPEC?)

Short recap Asia in green after strong US session yesterday On Trump softer on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood Europe opening flat to higher ECB today likely to confirm a gradual shift But still not major change in wording Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ economy Fed 4 hikes warranted, eventually 5 in 2018 according...

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Feb 13, 2018 - Commodity Weekly: Suffering commodity space offered nice trade opportunities

A great week for traders is behind, the volatility finally arrived to the commodity markets and more sectors had nice moves during this period. The biggest movers were in the Energy sector were oil and distillates joined the falling natural gas as the updated 2018/19 predictions of increasing US production surprised the markets. The Agri sector had on the other hand nice...

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Feb 9, 2018 - Market Update

European equities seem to be in a quite and cautious mood today after yesterday's red day. US futures are up a what gives additional comfort to the market is also the calm in FX. Bonds are getting slightly sold but yields are not moving very high. It is an interesting situation when stocks got sold off heavily over the last two weeks but bonds and FX were not...

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Feb 6, 2018 - Market Update (No recession short-term, healthy correction done, no global contagion, so let's hunt for bargains; One Fed hike is priced off; Watch today for Trys yields, JPY crosses, VIX; New turning points for VIX at 22 & 30; XIV a problem for Credit Suisse; BNSF Railway (part of Berkshire) joining Blockchain in Transport Alliance; Hedging by book: long gold, JPY, 10- and 30-yr Trys; The panic is over, moving to the last leg up of 2009 bull run;German coalition talks well covered blockchain)

Short recap Asia in red Europe opening lower US Congress to vote on government funding German coalition talks well covered blockchain technology to make Germany a fintech hub Draghi not ok with EUR volatility due to potential inflation miss Kuroda – no near-term hikes Question – what now? Honestly, I am not sure either… …as Janet is celebrating and...

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Feb 6, 2018 - Commodity Weekly: After the support of weak dollar commodities seem to join selloff

After a supportive week of depreciating dollar commodities are getting hit by sell off in equities and overall negative sentiment in risk assets. While the dollar should have been helping commodities rise, it wasn’t entirely the case even last week and the air was filled with tension especially after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday where the Fed noted inflation is on track....

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Feb 2, 2018 - Market Update (NFPs day but a high bar for USD to rise, Trys rising but where is the USD?, Rising yields challenging stocks (dividend/higher financing), Strong EUR to weight on EU stocks soon, Italy in or out?, eBay dumping PayPal and going for Adyen, Insurers to sell cryptos theft protection)

Short recap Asia lower Europe opening mixed Strong EUR to weigh on EU stocks soon 10-yr Trys yield above 2.75% putting pressure on stocks As dividend yield is not as attractive as before and cost of financing for companies is getting higher With recent rise in US yields, economic numbers and improving earnings season Are we going to see one 50 bps hike among...

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Jan 25, 2018 - Market Update (Trump up, Mnuchin down but market is concerned about who will buy US debt; ECB - just up is a problem but Draghi likely not to say anything again); EURUSD set to check 1.2500; Weaker USD good for equities; Gold - make or brake the 1380, then 1484...?; BofA with most blockchain patents; Qualcomm fined USD 1.2 bln by EU; Mexican drug cartels stealing fuel

Short recap Asia mixed to lower Europe opening lower Trump a year ago – USD strength means confidence in US and his presidency Mnuchin yesterday – USD weakness good for US economy …and market took it as a future direction of US policy In other words the US trade war has begun and weak USD is part of it Market is concerned about widening current account deficit...

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