Nov 2, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC a non event, Powell in and Tax bill out, BoE hiking after 10 years & taking a long break after..., EURUSD a shadow of USDCNH, IMF not ok with selling volatility products, Apple a big thing after market, Barclays fed up with Brexit and taking actions, Deutsche Bank seeking a second building in Frankfurt)

Short recap

Asia printing new 10-yr high as on optimism from Fed

Europe opening lower

FOMC – no changes, non event

Just reconfirmed all with economic activity to solid from moderate

Dec hike a done deal

IMF warns volatility products loom as next big market shock  link

Selling volatility complex products can be the trigger if volatility suddenly increases

Equities

Barclays is fed up with how UK is handling Brexit

And implementing their own plan

Deutsche Bank to move more operations to Frankfurt

Herbalife off the Ackman’s short bet who turned to options instead

Signa Holding (owner of Karstadt) eying Kaufhof (owned by Hudson Bay) for USD 3.5 bln

Thanksgiving travels to help airliners

Novo Nordisk warning of US legislation (Trump’s anti industry rhetoric)

Earnings

Apple – should learn more about Christmas iPhone sales and iPhone X orders

Asia is impressed by iPhone X but are they going to actually buy/afford it?

Others reporting: Alibaba, Starbucks, AIG, DowDuPont, Cigna, BCE, Bombardier

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% below 2.40% as attempts to get above faded

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

EZ yield spreads contracting, namely IT to GE, ES to GE going to year end

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1640 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1670 (200 WMA), 1.1690 (10 DMA), 1.1695 (100 DMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1.1630 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1500

 Source: Saxo Bank

Is USDCNH telling Us something ? EURUSD bulls need to move above 1.1660 in order the daily H&S to be under pressure…

GBPUSD

BoE hiking after 10 years? One off to 0.50% from current 0.25%

And likely taking a long break after…

Hard to spot any levels of choice and Brexit mess is still ongoing

Support at 1.3222 (50 DMA), 1.3204 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 1.3336

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Got some support from Powell nomination

No clear reaction to FOMC’s no change, just a small advance as rate don’t go up immediately

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), descending trendline

Support at 1275 (10/100 DMA), 1263 (low & 61.8% Fibo)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Fed’s Powell (1230 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1620 GMT)

Republicans unveiling tax reform bill (1515 GMT)

Rumours on repatriation tax rate:

5% on non-cash

12% on cash

But no offsetting revenue yet

Possibility of a temporary nature of the tax cuts

Trump meeting House GOP leaders (1745 GMT)

Trump announcing a new Fed chair (1900 GMT)

Powell likely taking the Chair and Taylor his Deputy?

That would be a true shift after Yellen…

Powell good for stocks as we can see the continuity

But not much for USD

Fed’s Bostic (2215 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs

Payrolls +310k exp. vs -33k prior

Unemployment rate 4.2% exp. vs 4.2% prior

Hourly earnings 0.2% exp. vs 0.5% prior

Fed’s Kashkari (1615 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (2015 GMT)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 28, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up on signs of stabilization in US stocks and USD

Europe opening higher

Chinese HNA Group in talks to acquire Forbes

Credit Suisse to make decision on capital increase soon

BoE asked UK banks to take steps their lending activities stay unaffected in case of full Brexit

Dow Chemical-DuPont merger (USD 130 bln) gets a green light from EU on asset sales plan

Westinghouse (Toshiba US) likely to file for bankruptcy today

PE fund Elliot giving the financial hand to a Chinese investors to buy AC Milan

Qatar wealth fund to be present in Silicon Valley

Ericsson under pressure on provisions

Saw some rebound in US stocks but it was weak

In general US stocks seem to be 20% overpriced compared to Europe

Gold – not able to break through, facing the profit taking

Correction can be within the range 1228-1236 despite positive tailwinds

Bunds – saw sharp rejection of 161 level yesterday

As markets may be refocussing more on high-yield space on the back of better macro data from EU

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.41%

EURUSD

Closed below the high from Dec 8 at 1.0873

200 DMA at 1.0878 and descending trendline kept the bulls

Bit of caution – As Le Pen is still part of presidential race in FR

It is prudent to still take this risk into account

In case of her win, the current rally would be strongly reversed

As the risks would need to be repriced across many asset classes

Betting suggests lower odds to her victory than official polls show

DXY

Got some technical support: from trendlines and 200 DMA

Otherwise can revisit 96 level

Data

US: Consumer Confidence Index – expecting slightly lower but confirming the trend

Fed speakers (GMT):

Yellen (1630)

George (1645)

Kaplan (1700)

Powell (2030)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 15, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia saw some profit taking ahead of FOMC

EU stocks opening higher

EU may officially authorize the start of Brexit talks on June 20 meeting

China keeps building in disputed South China Sea

Interesting to see extremely low level of volatility across many asset classes despite Trump and his policies

May be something is already boiling and FOMC tonight will be the trigger

Oil volatility giving the lead to equity markets

Lower oil may be a new catalyst for stocks

S&P 500 levels 2350/2400

Would need a strong impulse from FOMC to break 2400

US tech and healthcare overstretched and most sensitive to any correction

Volkswagen still recovering from diesel emission scandal and seems to be motivated to search for a tighter cooperation with other big names in the industry, like Fiat-Chrysler for example

Safran still interested in Zodiac Aerospace

Credit Suisse Fear Barometer (S&P500 puts to calls) strongly up as investors pay more for downside protection

EURUSD – crucial for bulls to stay above 1.0505/15 level

Still within the wider range 1.0500/1.0850

Tomorrow’s trading (after FOMC) to show further direction

But wouldn’t be surprised if we stayed range bound again

Base setup – a contrarian view:

ECB can not be dovish going to G20 and on German higher rates hopes

Should Germany want higher rates and higher currency, the Germanexit needs to take place

USD not reacting to strong data doesn’t mean bearish view

Monthly chart setup showing strong demand around 1.0500 level

FOMC can give the confirmation to break the level and head to parity

Than to 0.9500 in medium term

Likely this move will be accompanied by spike toward 1.0750/0850 as market will look for liquidity

Yields expected to spike up but correct in the coming days (as history shows)

10-yr Trys yield likely to test 2.64% level that contained the recent selloff

If Fed not convincing about higher pace of rate hikes due to Trump policy uncertainty

USD selloff to follow what will hurt more then stronger currency

Looks like being bullish USD is an edge and market is positioning for weaker USD

On the other hand ECB and FOMC will need to take into account lower oil prices

And their impact on inflation at some point

Data

US: Consumer Price Index – expecting to touch 2.7%

US: Retail Sales – to easy slightly but keep rising

FOMC – 25 bps hike expected

But the wording on the pace of future hikes the most important

Dutch elections (polling stations close at 2000 GMT, first exit polls to start right after)

US debt ceiling deadline

This week is busy:

Mar 16 – BoJ meeting (right after Fed hiking…)

Mar 16 – SNB meeting (to be watched as EURCHF is not behaving in a normal way)

Mar 16 – BoE meeting

Mar 17 – Merkel meeting Trump

Mar 17-18 – G20 FinMin meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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