July 28, 2017 - Market Update (Bad day for Trump - no Russia sanctions, no VAT, no BAT, no Obamacare repeal, EURUSD hitting strong multiyear resistance zone, USDJPY played by expiring options today, US GDP to surprise, NASDAQ down on rotation out of Techs, Apollo rising USD 25 bln)

Short recap

Asia lower on risk off

Europe opening

Mnuchin to support steps not tough talk against FX manipulators

As it hasn’t been working for years

Senate rejected new sanctions against Russia

Not even watered down Obamacare repeal bill can pass through Senate

Another huge blow to Trump after no VAT and BAT implementation

Those two got rejected due to the need to overhaul the whole tax system in US

Equities

NASDAQ down on rotation out of Techs

Amazon hit by cost jumping

UBS cautious despite good wealth management business

Credit Suisse – profit jumps

Apollo’s new private equity fund raised USD 25 bln for investments in North America and Western Europe

Airbus not happy with delays caused by Pratt & Whitney production

Cameco settled with IRS at a fraction of original claim but heavy fight with CRA is waiting

Any correction in stocks to be triggered by upcoming tapering? The stock markets were moving higher hand in hand with QEs all around the world. What’s next?

Few facts:

Had a nice bull market rolling over the years

Market multiples above historical levels

Equities vs fixed income yield differentials are low

M&A activity hitting high

Upcoming tapering

Extremely low volatility will not last

Trump administration not able to deliver

Earnings

Earnings season so far good on weaker USD

Merck, AbbVie – to be watched as competition is rising

Exxon Mobil, Chevron – market expecting a profit print

Bombardier – cash flow, CSeries deliveries and potential joint venture with Siemens to be questioned

Baker Hughes, Barclays, Goodyear, American Airlines

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% up from 2.28% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.53% down from 0.55% yesterday

EURUSD

Down from yesterday on USD buying

Underlying tone stays pro-EUR, US GDP in watch

Support of note 1.1623/21 (10 DMA/23.6% Fibo), 1.1615, then 1.1580

100/200 HMA may also see some buying

Resistance at 1.1750, 1. 1776 (high), 1.1794 (200 WMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Sitting on 111.00 with likely dip demand around 110.80

Option expiries at 110.80 (USD 1.2 bln), 111.00 (USD 1.4 bln)

Likely to stay within the sight of expiry levels unless US GDP moves the market heavily

Lots of bids at 110.00

Gold

Durable goods orders and higher USD put pressure on gold yesterday

Traders see Fed to announce taper in Sep

Resistance at 1261 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 125 (50.0% Fibo)

10/50/100 DMAs converge to 1250 level

Data/events

US Q2 GDP +2.6% exp vs 1.4% previous

Some banks revised up expectations on the back of yesterday's much better Durable goods orders

Fed’s Kashkari (1720 GMT)

Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC 

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 30, 2017 - Market Update (Markets getting ahead of themselves, US Q1 GDP revised up, S&P - Fed to start taper in Sep, Bunds-Trys spread at 183 bps, Raiffeisen Bank having difficulties with IPO, Small techs smashed on low liquidity)

Short recap

Asian down on risk off flows from EU/US

Europe opening mixed

This week we witness lots of end of month, quarter and half a year flows/positions squaring

Market is ahead of itself based on reactions, valuations, low vols, complacency

China manufacturing up on good production/new orders

US Q1 GDP revised up on consumer spending

Well, never underestimate the consumption power of Americans as history proves

According to S&P Fed will start taper in Sep and rise rates one more time in 2017

Higher German inflation did not help USD yesterday

US trade deficit report not published yet as it is under review at White House

Can be released anytime…or tweeted…

Equities

Deutsche Bank defending bank privacy in Trump’s case

Raiffeisen Bank International having difficulties with IPO of its 15% stake in Polish lender

As profitability is questioned

Fox bidding for Sky to face hurdles

Gabriel Resources asking USD 4.4 bln in damages from Romania

Icahn backing a break up of AIG

Good results of stress tests opens the door for buybacks and dividend rises at US banks

What in turn pushes their shares higher

Techs on a roller coaster but NASDAQ likely to target 5300 area

Small techs smashed as they were first to go on their low liquidity

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% - reaching the Jan/Mar highs around 50 bps

Central banks in sort of harmony

But market is pricing the ECB rate hike well well in 2018

Bund-Trys spread keeps narrowing to 183 bps

EURUSD

Right below strong resistance from descending trendline and 1.1495 & 1.1615

If broken we can eventually get ready for a move towards 1.2000/1.2500

With first target at 1.1714 (1.1750)

Decent offers seen towards and above 1.1450

Still well bid on market perception of hawkish ECB, thus downside limited

But big option expiries around 1.1350-75 area (EUR 1.7 bln)

Support at 1.1400 and from options

USDJPY

Corrected despite higher US yields but yield spread as a driving force to stay

On position squaring flows, crosses were heavy too

In general the underlying theme is up, choppy, consolidating

But central banks comments still in the air

Offers ranging 112.00/15

Bids from 111.50

Support 111.93/79 (Ichimoku), 111.78 (100 DMA), 111.76 (10 DMA)  and then 111.53/50 (50 DMA)

Resistance 112.24 (61.8% Fibo), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)

Gold

Not doing well on a sell off in bonds and JPY

Resistance at 1245 (61.8% Fibo) and ascending trendline, then 1250 (100 DMA) and 1254 (50 DMA)

Support at 1234 (76.4% Fibo), 1233 (200 DMA)

Data/Events

ECB’s Lautenschlager (1130 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny

ECB’s Coeure (1200 GMT)

US trade deficit report can be released anytime

...or tweeted…

July 5 – FOMC minutes

July 6 – ECB Minutes

July 7 – US NFPs

July 7 – Fed to publish its semi-annual report on mon pol (1500 GMT)

July 7/8 – G20 meeting – Trump meeting Putin

July 12 – Yellen testifying before Congress (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 16, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia flat

Europe opening higher

BoJ no change, upgrading consumption, domestic and global growth

To keep support as inflation is far from 2%

Greece getting EUR 8.5 bln loan

What about central banks raising the inflation targets to 3-4% range instead of 2% one?

Would it create the psychological pressure on households and corporates to spend/invest more?

Fed ok with hikes despite lower inflation pressures and job market is still strengthening

As financial markets conditions constantly improving since Mar 2016

Equities

US retailers suffer with almost 300 bankruptcies this year

US techs fall out stopped again around 5650 area for NASDAQ

Seems like correction without any panic is welcome

Nike to cut jobs and streamline offering

Apple suffering the most from techs selloff

Facebook fighting terrorism via removing content

Uber looking at trucks

BHP with new Chairman

Nestle likely to sell US business of Butterfinger and BabyRuth

BP and Reliance Industries to take on gas production in India (USD 6 bln)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.17%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%

EURUSD

Support at 1.1120 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Digesting FOMC

While BoJ seems off the interest of markets

Resistance at 111.24 (50.0% Fibo), then 111.37 and 112.00 Ichimoku

100 DMA at 111.88

Support at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.58 (200 DMA)

Descending trendline around 111.00

Closing today above 110.80 level would be a bullish outside week signal

With potential to look at 114.36 after breaking 111.24 level

DXY

Close to resistance at 97.62, then 97.85 (50.0% Fibo)

And descending trendline around 97.98

Gold

Under pressure post-FOMC

Expecting a wait-and-see game, as there is still decent physical demand due to geopolitical risks

While investors need to assess upcoming US data to get more comfortable with Fed’s hawkish tilt

Support at 100 DMA at 1247, 1245 (61.8% Fibo), 200 DMA at 1237 and 1234 (76.4% Fibo)

Resistance at 1255 (50.0%)

Upcoming Data/Events

Fed’s Kaplan (1645 GMT)

Sunday – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Monday – Brexit talks starting ?

Thursday – EU Summit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 12, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower taking clues from Nasdaq and its heavy weights

Europe opening lower

FR parliamentary elections – Macron’s party winning a huge majority in Lower House

What will make the reform package likely to happen

Traditional parties dying , Le Pen heavily down

China opening to foreign investors more, to cut restrictions on FDI

While reports of falsified provincial economic data

Fitch, Moody’s, S&P – no changes in UK rating but keep negative outlook

GBP waiting for clues

All points to softer Brexit as May’s coalition partner doesn’t want to have a border controls and customs union with Ireland

UK employers not really prepared for possible immigration changes

Equities

Apple – new iPhone may be lagging the download speed against its rivals

Elliott Advisors increasing the share in Akzo Nobel to 5%, becoming the largest shareholder

SoftBank entering the field of robotics by buying the business from Alphabet

EU to investigate Qualcomm-NXP (USD 38 bln)

NASDAQ sold off, driven by Apple (iPhone upgrade issue) and NVIDIA (casino stock label)

Investors may be caught by surprise as the volatility in techs is extremely low

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.22%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25%

DXY

Should FOMC keeps hawkish wording, USD to benefit

If not, USD sell off to be small and short

Support at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo), followed by 99.26 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1200, 1.1231 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

Lots of options expiring today within the range of 1.11-1.1200

So the trading should be contained here as we wait for FOMC

COT report – speculative longs in EUR increased by 1k to 74k, largest long positioning since 2007

USDJPY

Yields to lead the game ahead/after FOMC

Crucial resistance at 110.50 (200 DMA and 61.8% Fibo)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Gold

Double top

Resistance at 1276 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1264 (38.2% Fibo), 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Eventually, 1245 (61.8% Fibo) depending on how hawkish FOMC wording will be

COT report - saw long liquidation ahead of FOMC

Upcoming Data/Events

Tue – US Attorney General to testify before Congress over Comey and meeting with Russians

Tue/Wed – FOMC meeting

Dovish hike priced in

Market can get surprised if Fed keeps talking hawkish

Forward guidance critical (Yellen holds a press conference)

Economic projections to be released

Thu/Fri – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 26, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher on positive expectations about US

Europe openig lower

Rumours – Trump dropped border tax ahead of tax reform release

To be reviewed later eventually

US getting ready military wise in South Korea

While top US officials and Senators met

UK opened to keep contributing to the EU budget (until 2020)

ECB may be on the route to change slightly wording at its Jun 8 meeting

As risk of negative outcome of FR elections is very unlikely

Still strong macro from US and earnings support bull market

NASDAQ hitting 6000

Companies in US adjusting their hiring plans of foreign nationals

As they fear of visas policy change, thus switching from temporary visas to recruiting more US based staff

Caterpillar very positive on China

Christian Dior likely to combine its activities with LVMH

McDonald’s said that labour market is tightening across all regions in US

Earnings season

Reporting today: United Technologies, PepsiCo, Boeing, P&G, Northrop Grumman, Amgen, PayPal, Twitter

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

USDJPY – Trump trade reviving?

Should benefit again if it does

EURUSD

Buyers stopped ahead of 1.0950 (slightly above is upper trendline of ascending channel)

Resistance at 1.0933 (61.8% Fibo)

After FR elections seen unhedged capital flows to EZ stocks

Trump trade and tax reform details can change the picture

Commodities

Gold – coping with stocks, yields, JPY and Trump tax reform

But getting support from North Korea

Below descending trendline that acted as a support

Support at 200 DMA at 1255 and 1249 (50% Fibo),

Oil – still under pressure from uncertainty about OPEC’s ability to reduce production and rising US inventories

Bullish inventories can help oil higher

But nothing like lower oil and higher gasoline inventories

Production is lower but shipments continue at the same pace

Upcoming

Juncker and Barnier in London

US Gov shutdown still on the table

Trump’s tax package to be revealed:

Lowering corporate tax to 15% from 39.6%

Lowering tax on repatriation of profits to 10% from 35% (USD 2.6 tln sitting overseas)

Other measures for SMEs and self-employed

Apr 27 – ECB meeting – Draghi will be in the spotlight defending the QE continuation with taper may be around mid-2018

Will need to talk down the taper at an earlier stage

Would correspond to three year cycle as Fed had

To please the hawks likely small wording adjustment at Jun 8 meeting

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round (Macron/Le Pen – 60/40)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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