June 13, 2017 - (Trade Idea) Short GBPUSD - medium/long term, targeting new low

Hi,

 Right after UK CPI I mentioned on Twitter I took small, short position ( risking 0,15% ).

 What is my thinking ( come on great UK CPI number , why the heck you are short ? ):
 1. Highest UK CPI Since June 2013 would be great for GBP with „normal” economic growth. The thing is that we have high inflation based on weak pound and not because of the economic growth.

 2. There wont be „soft” Brexit In my opinion .

 3. Daily chart/ one of the strategy could support that view:

 4. FOMC and Yellen - dovish hike is priced in, looking for stronger dollar in a months ahead

 I gone short @1,2707 with stop 30pips above pre UK election high targeting…. Well something around 1,15/1,13 ( risking 0,15% for now ). Im ready to reopen that short ( under current mkt conditions In case of stop put risking 0,3% )

The another way could be GBPUSD PUT option expiry In late November with strike price In half way of target , for ex ample:

Please don't hesitate to contact Us should you have additional questions.
We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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May 9, 2017 - (Chart of the Day) Gold - one month later - as expected ( XAUUSD )

Hi,
today short update to the gold analysis posted exactly one month ago here

In short, on 9th April 2017 I mentioned gold has hit potential supply zone based on weekly chart:

and we are approaching possible demand on daily ( within weekly zone :) ) available above as well as on the new chart below:

Gold ( XAUUSD ) todays daily chart:

So, where from here ?
Medium/long term we do expect further downside as shown above but near term "Dead Cat Bounce" possible ( hence, if you are short watch around for possible reversal and manage position accrodingly ).

Join Us:

FREE LIVE TRADING ROOM - click here

Please don't hesitate to contact Us should you have additional questions.
We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Feb 22, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian markets on positive note

EU to open higher

BoJ planning to be more transparent with announcing specific dates for bond buying operations (likely to avoid recent surprise moves)

Kuroda: ready to easy more

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin-IMF Lagarde: IMF to evaluate FX levels and police FX policies

Fed Mester – at full employment, prices raising but don’t want to surprise the markets

US VP Pence delivered the marketing message of support for EU and NATO this weekend

But week earlier Chief Strategist Bannon had a different view

Spain is really firing at all cylinders with 2016 exports of EUR 255 bln from EUR 160 bln in 2009

Proof that the reforms they did earlier with weaker EUR work well for them

DAX to push higher behind 12 000 mark on strong data

US stocks with strong momentum but getting overvalued

Usually stocks grow with rising bond yields until 10 yr US Trys hit the levels around 3.9%

So there is still room but since US election we’ve got too high to fast

Daimler planning to build a plant near Moscow to produce Mercedes-Benz cars

It is a first major investment after announcing sanctions

Verizon agreed with Yahoo on lower takeover offer due to cyber attacks on Yahoo

EUR weakness not USD strength

Daily pivot: 1.0558

1^st daily support: 1.0502

2^nd daily support: 1.0468

3^rd daily support: 1.0412

76.4% Fibo: 1.0455, the level 1.0450/60 next strong support range

Low from 1997 at 1.0416

Then the lows of 1.0340 only

Gold weakness seen more against EUR than USD

XAUEUR printing new highs

Brent crude getting tighter as we get closer to potential squeeze

As calendar spreads for upcoming expiries rose substantially

What in turn can make the storing of oil outside US a losing trade

10 yr US Trys yields lower on softer PMI data yesterday but erased the loses later on

Currently at 2.45%, still below important resistance at 2.51/52%

GE-FR spread hitting 78 bps again on Le Pen

Data

GE: Ifo Business Climate Survey – to confirm the overall strength of GE economy, no big surprises expected

US: Existing Home Sales – set to surprise on positive side

FOMC Minutes – markets still not taking the Mar 15 meeting seriously despite Yellen’s testimony from last week

Minutes can shed a bit more light on whether Fed is eyeing to raise rates in March

Fed Powell speaking today, as he is a possible successor of Yellen

It is worth to watch him as he may provide additional clues on March hike amid strong figures from US

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 20, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

US markets closed on Monday on account of President’s Day (not to get confused with Trump, reference is to George Washington birthday)  :o)

CA markets closed as well on account of Family Day

DXY not reacting to Mar 15 hike increased likelihood (40%)

Fed likes to see the probability of rate hike above 75% to act

Will see whether Fed officials will be convincing enough to increase the probability before Mar 15

Kraft Heinz buying Unilever for USD 143 bln is off

US shale oil producers facing a rising costs (first time after couple of years)

Battle for German drug producer Stada keeps heating up with the latest Bain Capital acquisition proposal for USD 3.8 bln. The shares trading at new historic highs below EUR 58.

DAX likely to test 12 000 as strong underlying momentum continues

EURUSD – jumped from 1.0530 (61.8% Fibo) but range trading

Markets like to see the cross below 1.0700, pressured by political risks as well

1.0500/25 key for further testing below 1.0350

Lower Bund yields can be seen as risk off in EZ

10 yr Trys yields struggling to break 2.50% level, will see how market will react to hawkish comments from Fed officials

USDJPY – support around 112.50 + 23.6% Fibo + support in the form of descending trend line connecting high of Jan 3 & Jan 27

Then lows around 111.60

XAUUSD – still range bound 1220 (38.2% Fibo) and 1245/1250 (50% Fibo)

Data

UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey – hard to say after Dec negative surprise but Brexit impact is more and more visible

EZ: Consumer Confidence Indicator – expected to stay steady but upcoming elections in EZ could weigh on sentiment

EZ FinMin meeting today, no resolution expected on Greece

Feb 28 – Trump before Congress, is he going to disappoint?

Putin supporting the EZ or EU collapse? Not really...

Putin is definitely not interested in collapse of EZ

36% of Russian foreign currency reserves are in EUR (USD 48%)

Russian businessmen invested heavily in EU

EU is the largest trading partner for Russia with exports worth of almost USD 100 bln to EZ, what equals to exports to the rest of the world

Foreign direct investments to Russia from EZ total 70% of all FDI flowing to Russia

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 15, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian markets up on Wall Street and Yellen

EU markets opening higher

SoftBank Group to buy Fortress Investment Group (USD 3.3 bln) as it is preparing to enter the private equity space

GM’s decision to put Opel/Vauxhall on sale is a turning point for the company as the company will exit the production in Europe

If talks with Peugeot-Citroen succeed the global auto map will be redesigned completely

CEOs of US retailers to discuss the border tax with Trump today

Studying Trump actions becoming a norm for professional investors (apart from fundamentals…etc.)

FinTech is venturing into M&A business of Goldman Sachs now after eliminating tons of trading jobs before

Momentum in financials seems to be firmly in place with Goldman Sachs reaching historic highs

But we may be getting a bit overstretched despite momentum

Trump’s New world is turning into New NATO and many European countries need to live up their 2% of GDP obligation

Thus seeing new opportunities on long side in: BAE, Leonardo, Lockheed, General Dynamics, Raytheon and Northrop

EZ peripheral yields falling down despite the ongoing clash between EZ and IMF over Greece

Greece not open to any further spending cuts; the situation may turn up badly at some point

Some US banks licensed to issue Panda bonds in China (inland)

USDJPY – levels 115.00 and 116.00 (cloud top)

EURUSD – 1.0566-1.0576/78

Yellen

Fed likely hiking on Mar 15 but need to watch job market and inflation expectations (probability at 34%)

3 hikes still in place for 2017 (prised at 50/50 for Dec); market is pricing 2 hikes

Waiting too long would be unwise

Trump policies are a big unknown/risk

Eventually, Fed can do pre-talk in March and hike on May meeting (despite no press conference)

Fed has an authority and responsibility to talk with global regulators

Data

UK: Labour Market Report – claimant count expected higher

US: Consumer Price Index – headline CPI to rise the most since 2012 while Core CPI expected slightly lower

US: Consumer Price Index – expected to slow down

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 6, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

After FOMC and NFPs – markets should be focusing on steps with longer term impact like Fed hiking, roll-back of Dodd-Frank regulation, intrustructure, Obamacare and tax reform than short-term vows over immigration ban

EURUSD – 1.0800/50 still in place and the same goes for DXY at 99.00/50

From technical perspective unless both levels are broken, market is looking at USD from positive side (technically) despite still broad negative outlook

Further resistance around 1.0821/75 area with 200 DMA (may be eventually tested)

USDJPY – below important 112.00/50

AUDUSD – 0.7830 is critical

The bullish USD view to be reviewed if all of the above mentioned levels are broken.

EURUSD – may be verbally supported by the criticism for example from Schauble, who is not happy with weak EUR as it is negative for productivity even though Germany enjoys huge surpluses. His verbal comments are not to last long as he also knows that monetary policy is set for the whole EZ and not just Germany.

This fact, especially in the light of situation in Italy, may not be fully priced in by the market as the still rising divergence in inflation and economic growth among EZ countries is not either. Just by looking at widening of peripheral spreads warrants that ECB will not change its policy anytime soon. There is also another risk coming from regulation of sovereign bond holdings limits for the banks, what may in turn trigger the sell off in Italian bonds. If that happens, the ECB would need to step in. One shouldn’t be surprised if EURUSD rate depends on BTP-Bund spread and moves in tandem. Actually, that would be more accurate valuation metric along with political risks in EZ that trading EUR based on German economy.

Williams (Fed) was out after NFPs on Friday confirming that March meeting is a live meeting, thus opening the door for markets to learn more from Fischer as well as Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday next week.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Jan 13, 2017 - Central Banks Calendar for 2017 (FED, ECB, BOC, BOE, BOJ, RBNZ, RBA)

It's important to know when big news can hit the market. One set of these news are the regular Monetary Committee Meetings of different central banks. Below you can find a quick overview of some important Central bank meetings for 2017. Please feel free to use it for your trading preparation.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Dec 14, 2016 - Land of Trading: Pre-FOMC Live Trading Room Edu

Hi,
it's PRE-FOMC Free Live Trading Room.
We discussed possible scenarios, expectations etc for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDSD and USDCHF.

Enjoy!

Join Us - FREE LIVE TRADING ROOM - click here

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Dec 13, 2016 - Story of the Week: Fed raising the rates by 50 bps tomorrow?

Hello mates,

So tomorrow is the big day, right? Well, still wondering what to really expect after few missteps from Yellen. Hike with dovish comments? No hike with hawkish comments? Or a surprise hike of 50 bps as the economy is growing and inflation pressures will kick in soon?

I believe we can all agree on a 25 bps hike that is already priced in by the market. The most important part will be the comments and guidance for 2017. Here, we are not likely to see dovish Yellen talking about 2-3 additional hikes next year even though Trump’s fiscal plans can support inflation expectations. We are also on the same page by saying Fed doesn’t have more or less any clear idea what to expect, what potential risks the economy might be coping with next year…etc.

What is a very strong signal proving that Fed is already behind the curve (we have expected Fed to raise rates in September) is the situation small and medium enterprises in US face. Actually, they already signal the shortage of qualified workers in some fields. As we move along, the economy is closing the output gap and the only question mark after OPEC/Non-OPEC countries agreed on crude oil production cuts is the level of capital investments. Still lacking a bit.

There is also another factor, apart from those we already discussed in The last big event in 2016 that we know about... and it is raising yields that may in turn support the banks, their profitability, improve risk models metrics and spur the lending activity to corporates as well as public.

Would you agree that it sounds like 50 bps hike tomorrow?

PS: Please keep in mind that the new US Government will likely look like a “US Inc.” sort of structure with all high profile and pro-business oriented people that will definitely push for more relaxed regulations and tax cuts.

Good luck Champs, let’s see tomorrow!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Dec 10, 2016 - FOMC - The last big event in 2016 that we know about…

The last big event in 2016 that we know about is coming. Can we expect any bad surprise from Yellen and her team? The probability of a 25 bps rate hike to 0.75% level is around 95%, in other words it is widely expected. Strong US data, the rise in bond yields and inflation expectations, and bullish stock markets seem to be supporting the case.

Facts

-          Probability of a 25 bps rate hike is priced at 95%

-          The hike is consistent with comments from Fed officials over the past few weeks as well as

-          US data coning in strong, the Trump presidential victory is pushing bond yields higher, reviving inflation expectations despite low crude oil prices and bullish stock markets towards the end of  year seem to be supporting the case

-          The pace of rate hikes in 2017 will depend on an increase in inflation, pace of labor market improvements and economic growth

-          Four members having the last meeting this week

Expectations

-          After last week’s ECB we expect volatility primarily in EURUSD, USDJPY and Gold but stocks as well as Emerging markets assets will not stay aside once the market will start to move

-          The hike may give additional support to USD towards the end of the year and in 2017

-          The Summary of Economic Predictions (SEP) should not deviate from the rhetoric and macro data we have seen in the past weeks

-          It is still very difficult to predict the tone of Yellen’s speech as she is clearly dovish but would need to acknowledge the good data and rate hike

-          Would be interesting to see whether they will mention the faster pace of rate hikes in 2017 on the back of bond yields jumping higher

-          Very likely after the FOMC meeting the markets will switch to Christmas holidays mode with nothing really going on but low liquidity and abrupt moves

By the way, I am sure you have already figured out that the stocks despite the expectations of rising rates are moving higher. Shouldn’t they be lower?

Well, the Trump’s expected corporate tax rate cuts and deregulation do the job.

Before we actually get to FOMC meeting let’s check what history can show us first.

Every significant Capacity utilization increase was followed by rise in interest rates:

To refresh the memory have a look at Historical rates (Source: Wikipedia):

Enjoy...

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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Nov 28, 2016 - Weekly Tech Overview: Dollar Index (Updated)

Hi,
this is another weekly dollar update. It's even more interesting this time as bulls have to confirm breakout on weekly chart and that could be the challange taking intrtaday chart and upcoming GDP and NFP numbers into consideration.

We are still bullish medium and long term and if bulls confirm that breakout it could be just begining :)
Please check details on the charts below, enjoy:

Join Us FREE again next week - click here

US Dollar Weekly charts:

Previous updates:

DX – Weekly Update

The next two weeks is going to be very interesting from dolar traders perspective.

Our previous DX update is available here.

Free Live Trading Room - Join Us here

Risk Events:

Clinton / Trump rumors, speculations, comments

2nd November – FOMC

4th November – NFP

8th November – Election Day

Also we have to remember  we may see some profit taking / loss booking before end of the year when liquidity is still ok ( think mid/end of November ). So it’s clear that even the greatest Technical Analysis may not work because of the factors could play bigger role.

Anyway, as you can see on the chart below, we have a trading range after strong rally and we expect continuation to the upside ( yes, we are still USD bulls medium and long term as long as we are above 91/90,80 based on weekly close ).

Short term – failure around 100 level  could be good reason to Take some profits with first suport around  96 ( mid-range) and the bottom of that range as critical one.

Please check our latest recorded Live Trading Room’s where we discussed short term possibilities on USDJPY and EURUSD ( and the short term Outlook is still valid ): here and here

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading
Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Nov 6, 2016 - Madam or Mister President? What are our market expectations?

Madam or Mister President ?

We are getting closer, the heat is on and one would say that there is a lot at stake. Anyway, will see on Tuesday night…

It all starts with Clinton and Trump, carries on with majority in Senate and House of Representatives and voters’ turnaround. The race is very tight and the lower participation can be advantageous for Trump. On the other hand Clinton’s supporters see the chance to win back the Senate majority, while many Republicans have an issue even to endorse Trump.

What are our expectations?

Hillary in the Oval Office

-          More or less status quo

-          Not focussing on structural reforms

-          Likelihood of escalation of conflict with Russia (Ukraine, Crimea, NATO presence in Eastern Europe, Syria)

Market reaction in case of Clinton victory

-          Markets relieved as a first reaction and S&P 500 rallying for 2-3 days followed by a selloff

-          May have a Christmas rally with S&P 500 extending to 2120, 2176 and highs around 2194

-          But at certain point we will see the 1900 level as a part of healthy correction that is needed, may come in Jan 2017

-          Biotech and pharma under pressure

-          Supportive for USD and US yields

-          EURUSD heading towards 1.05 in the light of Dec rate hike

-          Strong selloff in JPY, CHF and EURMXN

-          USDJPY to extend to 105.00

-          NOK, CAD, BRL on a positive note, AUD negative as it is living its own problems with household spending and housing bubble

-          FOMC rising rates in Dec

-          Gold to 1250 and then to 1235

Donald in the Oval office

-          Unpredictable but it is not going to be that bad as general expectations are

-          FOMC on hold in Dec

-          Fed officials changes in 2017 – what’s Trump view of Fed’s role?

-          New fiscal stimulus

-          Trade protectionism

-          Will agree with Russia on the spheres of influence and new world order, thus risk of escalation or military conflict may to great extent vanish

-          US companies may suddenly sign interesting investment contracts in Russia what can in turn support US equities in medium term

-          Putin’s top candidate as he likes those Western leaders who create the chaos and opinion/policy division among them

-          Some US citizens leaving the country and taking up residency abroad. Like we saw last time after Bush being elected and few Americans moved to Canada.

-          Increased tensions with China in South China see as China started to build artificial islands and Philippine’s president dropped the close relationship with US in favor of stronger ties with China. All of that happening in the region where important naval merchant routes are controlled by US.

Market reaction in case of Trump victory

-          In case of a decisive win we may experience extremely high volatility and lack of liquidity across many asset classes

-          This can commence after 2:00 am GMT as the market will start to have a good indication of the potential outcome (either decisive win or still ongoing tight race)

-          Risk assets selloff as an immediate reaction

-          S&P 500 breaking through 2082 and 200 DMA, next target is a range between 1999-1991 (10% correction from the highs)

-          Buying dips into 1900 maybe 1800 levels but again, the healthy correction in stocks is needed as mentioned above

-          Biotech and pharma strongly rallying - watch the IBB (Biotech ETF)

-          Coal ETF (KOL) rallying despite the nice and steady rise in 2016

-          USDJPY with strong support at 102.80 and 100 DMA, and then looking at 100.00 and 99.00

-          EURUSD to 1.1300, then to 1.1500 as round levels

-          Weaker USD and US yields dropping in safe heaven flow; USD may weaken 3-5% but lack of liquidity can enhance it to a 5-8% one-off drop; all of that will be driven for 2-3 days by hot and smart money and then we will see USD buying again as nothing is really changing to the current FX trends

-          Gold in demand, now trading around 1300 to extend to 1350 but later come back to 1300 again; Gold vols up and Risk-Reversals trading at the levels seen during Brexit and Q1 2016 general selloff

-          Definitely, there will be lots of question marks about appropriate asset allocation. For those looking for an inspiration check out a “Trump Victory Portfolio”  link .

Should you have any questions or would like to have a chat about market positioning going to election day feel free to contact us at landoftradingATgmailDOTcom or follow our Live Market Coverage.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct-31, 2016 Weekly Macro W44

This is going to be a hard core central bank week, we have altogether 4 rate decisions from major central banks RBA, BoJ, FED, BoE. We will however start the week with some inflation figures from the Eurozone (Flash CPI), Canada (RMPI) and the USA (monthly PCEPI). Also don’t forget about Chinese PMIs on Tuesday and the NFP as part of the US employment report on Friday.

After the last weeks bombshell announcement of the FBI director about his bureau’s review of emails potentially related to Hillary Clinton one may wonder what else could come before the election. Last Friday FBI head, James Comey has broken the longstanding DoJ and FBI practice not to comment publicly about politically sensitive investigation within 60 days of an election. Is this a signal that we should not rely on the history that Fed never hiked rates in the year of election? Well, Wall Street is definitely in a better relationship with the Clintons than the FBI, but one could never be sure…

Below you find few comments on each day macro figures but please look at the attached Event risk calendar too as I couldn’t mention everything, eventually feel free to print it out for a quick overview during the day. You can also check out our Live Trading Room register here

This weeks Live Tradin Room schedule is here:

Tuesday: GMT 12:00 AM

Wednesday: GMT 09:00 AM

Monday:

The first day of the week will be mainly about inflation but we start the morning with German retail sales at GMT 7:00 which was mostly below expectations this year. The Eurozone Core CPI could reach 1% since March but we could see a bounce in headline CPI the last few months. Market is expecting a rise in CPI to 0.5% which we haven’t seen since June 2014. In the afternoon we will be watching overseas data, the same time is released the raw material inflation from Canada and the monthly measurement of US PCE price index (the quarterly data came out on Friday with Advance GDP showing a decline in consumption price levels in Q3). We end the day Chicago PMI.

Tuesday:

Data heavy day for almost full 24 hours, so just the most important ones... After midnight we start with the Official Chinese PMI followed by the Markit’s PMI. The expectations are rather sober with no big improvement on the radar of most of the analyst. There is no rate hike expected from RBA Rate decision as GDP is probably above the nations potential still growing at 3.3%, the house prices as increasing strongly in the last quarter especially in the Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra, the inflation picked up recently (core inflation unchanged) and Unemployment rate declined to 5.6%. The BoJ Rate decision will follow but as the last meeting showed us a change in the CBs focus to the yield curve rather than the benchmark interest, the statement and the press conference may bring some volatility if additional measures will or won’t be announced by Kuroda. Later the morning the UK Manufacturing PMI may give some support for the week GBP as the uncertainty around the Brexit amounts.  In the afternoon after Canadian GDP the US ISM manufacturing PMI will be worth to watch after surprise bounced from the sub 50 levels. In the evening the API Crude inventory report may move oil market and the oil currencies ahead of the November OPEC meeting and later kiwi traders should follow the employment figures and GDT price index from New Zealand.

Wednesday

The markets will be in digesting mode during the early trading hours as still waiting for the main course the FOMC rate decision. The Australian Building approvals and later the German Employment change may bring minor pick up in volatility. The UK Construction sector is doing better than expected after the Brexit vote, and in the morning the Purchasing managers (PMI) of the sector will give their opinion on the housing market. The expectation are lower than the previous reading but given the current momentum it could be easily much better which would support the cable. Even the focus in the afternoon is on the FOMC, the ADP employment data could increase trading activity as investors will adjust their positions. The EIA Crude inventories are the last data ahead of FOMC. And finally we will see the results of the 2 day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee – rate decision. The likelihood of a November rate hike is only around 5% but it’s still there, don’t forget this. If you are a fan of conspiracy theories you probably noted the surprise Clinton investigation announcement from FBI. A rate hike at current fragile market sentiment could cause the perfect storm ahead of the US elections to give maximum support to Trump.

Thursday:

The Bank of England rate decision is supposed to be a non-event with practically no chance to hike the rates as Carney was already criticized by the MPs the BoE acted too early. However the assessment of the economy in the BoE inflation report will be more interesting 4 month after the Brexit vote. In the afternoon first part of US employment figures will be released with the jobless claims. It’s not likely we will see a positive surprise close to full employment. On the other hand q/q productivity is expected to increase after 3 negative quarters and as this is the first release it may have bigger impact. According to Fisher despite this part of the equation is uncontrollable by the Fed, it is one of the key indicators to monetary policy. We will finish the day with ISM Non/Manufacturing PMI which surprised traders last month with much better than expected figure.

Friday:

The RBA Monetary policy statement will be released after the rate decision at the end of the week together with Australian Retail Sales. The European session will be almost data free and the first notable figures will be released in the afternoon from Canada (Employment and Trade balance) at the same time as the US Employment report. While the NFP are expected to marginally increase and the Unemployment Rate to get below 5% the Labor Force Participation Rate is at 4 decade lows. The key question is if the negative trend in participation rate bottomed out this year or the downtrend will continue. The Feds broader Labor Market Condition Index released next Monday will give us a complete picture about the US Labor Market trends.

 DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading teams view on past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not and shouldn´t been viewed as an investment advice and the creator of this material shouldn´t be held liable for any loss resulting from action where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this  material  as an investment advice.

All rights reserved ©2016 www.landoftrading.com, contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Oct 30, 2016 - Weekly Tech Overview Dollar Index (2nd Update to Week 27)

DX – Weekly Update

The next two weeks is going to be very interesting from dolar traders perspective.

Our previous DX update is available here.

Free Live Trading Room - Join Us here

Risk Events:

Clinton / Trump rumors, speculations, comments

2nd November – FOMC

4th November – NFP

8th November – Election Day

Also we have to remember  we may see some profit taking / loss booking before end of the year when liquidity is still ok ( think mid/end of November ). So it’s clear that even the greatest Technical Analysis may not work because of the factors could play bigger role.

Anyway, as you can see on the chart below, we have a trading range after strong rally and we expect continuation to the upside ( yes, we are still USD bulls medium and long term as long as we are above 91/90,80 based on weekly close ).

Short term – failure around 100 level  could be good reason to Take some profits with first suport around  96 ( mid-range) and the bottom of that range as critical one.

Please check our latest recorded Live Trading Room’s where we discussed short term possibilities on USDJPY and EURUSD ( and the short term Outlook is still valid ): here and here

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading
Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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