Sep 22, 2017 - Market Update (China downgrade on still fast credit growth, NoKo a new H-bomb test while Kim is in NY, Stronger EUR weighting on DAX, Apple under pressure - a new target at 142?, May's perfect time of Brexit speech at 1900 GMT, Germany voting on Sunday, Gold at 1295 - which way?)

Short recap

Asia in red on NoKo and S&P downgrade of China (outlook stable) and Hong Kong (outlook negative). S&P not comfortable with Chinese still strong credit growth

Europe opening lower

Speculation that NoKo will test powerful hydrogen bomb in Pacific

PBOC asked Chinese banks to stop cooperating with NoKo

Equities

Lufthansa to absorb largest part of AirBerlin’s assets

While easyJet should get some too

Stronger EUR weighting on DAX

12 500 to be tested again

B&N Bank carrying a USD 6 bln hole on its balance sheet

Apple still under the pressure as investors question the new product range

If not comfortable, can eventually test 142 level (200 DMA)

Support at 153 (50.0% Fibo/100 DMA), 150 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 156 (38.2% Fibo), 157 (50 DMA), 159 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25% vs 2.27% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% vs 0.45% yesterday

DXY

Heavy on USDJPY decline

Still not able to detach from current congestion zone

After FOMC pullback much stronger then in EURUSD

Why not following through and moving higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

If decisive move above 1.2000, we may see more gains

Strong support zone 1.1870/80

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Next levels 1.1819 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1941 (10 DMA), 1.1945 (55 HMA)

Large options expiring at 1.1925 (EUR 1 bln), 1.1950-75 (EUR 1.9 bln), 1.2000 (EUR 1.4 bln)

With more above 1.2000 level that can play in

Is the 1.2500 a target before correcting below parity like in 1998?

USDJPY

Resistance at 112.18 (200 DMA), 112.71

Offers starting at 112.50 on

Expiring option (USD 1.7 bln) at 112.00 may attract the cross

Support at 111.60 Ichimoku, 111.43 (23.6% Fibo), descending trendline

Gold

Support at 1295, 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels for further medium term direction

Bullish while above daily demand...

Data/events

ECB’s Coeure (0715 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (0800 & 0930 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1115 & 1315 GMT)

Fed’s George (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1730 GMT)

Brexit – a major speech from May (1900 GMT)

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking to reset the talks?

Rumours UK ready to pay EUR 20 bln a year for market access

EU’s Barnier to respond shortly after May’s speech

Sunday – German elections

How strong the grand coalition will be?

Sep 26 Yellen speaking about inflation and monetary policy

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 26, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia down as OPEC disappointed the market by not delivering what traders hoped for

Cut extended for 9 and not 12 months, expected deeper cuts

Oil was down 5% and still heavy today

Europe opening lower

Risk off continues on OPEC, lower yields and dovish Bullard (inflation worrisome, Fed aggressive)

Looking forward to balance sheet reduction in H2

Trump’s son-in-law who is a part of his senior advisers team is under FBI investigation over Russia

USD 20 bln Blackstone-Saudis deal underlies how important Blackstone is for Kushner’s family

As they borrowed from the company few hundred mlns and company worked on their NY mansion

Moody’s - China not able to curb the debt, risk of another downgrade

China to change Yuan fixing formula to adjust for lower volatility

China not to pursue a competitive devaluation

UK consumers hit by rising prices

UK’s May falling in polls, GBP down

Equities

Full “bail in” talk of regional banks Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca

Denied by officials

GM facing a lawsuit over emissions

Ford behind GM in new models

Canadian banks don’t see the threat to their business from fallout of Home Capital

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.36%

Fed funds rate vs EURUSD  link

EURUSD

Offers around 1.1250-60

Still lots of bid below

1.1314 (76.4% Fibo)

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Bids towards 111.50, more towards 111.00 – range with heavy option expiries as well

Offers may be present going to 112.00

50 DMA at 111.25 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

Iron ore

Inventories highest since 2004 (136 mln tonnes)

Important support 450

Data,

G7 meeting (growth, employment, security)

ECB’s Coeure (2000 GMT)

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 24, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia effected by China downgrade

Europe opening lower

Markets shifting focus from risk off set up to June FOMC meeting

1^st Trump budget sent to Congress, being ignored as such?

Moody’s downgraded China to A1 from AA3, outlook to stable from negative

On the back of debt burden and its implications on public finances, and slowing growth

Only 12% of debt owned by foreigners, should not send shock waves across EM

Bernanke – BoJ should coordinate fiscal spending plan with gov to reach 2% inflation

While staying debt neutral

US housing on track

Equities

Bunge declined any talks with Glencore 

FiatChrysler officially facing an emission cheating legal action

Apple and Nokia friends and in love again, Apple looking to buy more from Nokia

Or more tighter partnership coming? Health, patents, royalties…

Shell selling its stake in Canadian Natural (CAD 4.1 bln)

Cyber security demand pleasing BlackBerry

McDonald’s to face some protests about wages, unions

HP should benefit from more stability in PC market and effects of restructuring

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41%

Market getting more comfortable with June rate hike (probability of 78%, two more hikes this year probability at 43%)

As the yield in 52-week bill auction comes to 1.145%, highest since 2008

And 2-yr note at 1.316% (strong auction) highest since 2008 (May 10 high at 1.360%)

EURUSD

US yields helped USD

Still need a deeper break of 100 HMA at 1.1182

Support clinging around 1.1160 with orders sitting there

But market is looking at 1.1100 now

Market keeps speculating about ECB change of rhetoric at June 8 meeting

Despite recent speeches by officials - not open to such thoughts: QE taper first, then rate hikes

USDJPY

Offers likely above 112.00 (38.2% Fibo at 111.98 and USD 2.6 bln option with strike at 112.00 expiring today)

Ichimoku at 111.81, bids likely below 111.70

50 DMA at 111.32 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

Iron ore down approx. 7% on China downgrade

While its inventories keep rising in China

Prices hitting the lows of the cycle, negatively impacting AUD as well

Crude oil

Oil remains bid but further rise is limited due to US shale and slowing China

Crucial whether the potential cut is also on export side, not just in production

Upcoming

ECB’s Praet (0830 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (2200 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari

FOMC Minutes – to bring a bit of hawkish tone as Fed feels that Q1 data were transitory

Minutes remind market that Fed is on the watch list going to June meeting again

Focus on interpretation of inflation, taper strategy and job market (slack/no slack)

Thu – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

OPEC meeting 0800 GMT

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting 1300 GMT

OPEC Joint press conference 1500 GMT

Full schedule  link

Expect headlines as attendees arrive

Fri – G7 meeting

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting 

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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