Oct 2, 2017 - Market Update (Catalan 90% vote, Johnson-May old friends, DAX attacking 12 954 on weaker EUR, 10-yr Trys yield bullish close, Global equity funds enjoying the money in rally)

Short recap

Asian up

Europe opening higher

Catalonian 90% vote for independence

Madrid and police not comfortable with it

Declaration of independence likely to come in 48 hours

Boris Johnson sees Theresa May gone within the year (friends…)

Boeing-Bombardier dispute a proof of UK-US Trump kind of preferential partnership

Warsh the new Fed’s head after meeting with Trump

Used to be a Fed gov (2006/11) but resigned over disagreement over bond buying

Other candidates might be: Yellen, Cohn, Powell, Hubbard

ECB close to tapering? What about the business and consumer confidence hitting multiyear highs…

Equities

Volkswagen making up the diesel scandal bill up to USD 30 bln

Global Logistic Properties buying Gazeley (USD 2.8 bln) to enter EU as a lucrative market

Germany eying to buy warplanes from Boeing

Bombardier goes short against Boeing but seals USD 1.7 bln deal with SpiceJet from India to sell 50 planes

Global equity funds still growing in size as investor poor money in

Cryptocurrency exchanges still facing the security and fraud issues

DAX to benefit from weaker EUR, next stop 12 954 or higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.58% vs 2.58% on Friday – had a bullish close on Friday posting outside month/monthly reversal

10-yr Bund yield at 1.67% vs 1.07% on Friday

Spanish bonds - Catalan vote impact – we need to see market reaction first

As we balance between the independence and strong economy

COT report as of Tue last week

USD: Leveraged funds net sellers

Shorts at the highest level since May 2014

EUR: Largest net buying

Longs at 88k vs 62k previously

GBP: First net longs since Oct 2015

Longs 5k vs shorts 10k previously

EURUSD

Gapped lower but Catalan vote to have a short-lived impact

Unless we see a deep constitutional crisis in Spain

Support at 1.1762 (Ichimoku) 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1708 (200 WMA)

Resistance at 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1844 (50 DMA)

USDJPY

Worth of watching as DXY is getting some bullish signs

And Trump is moving with tax reform

Cross posted also a bullish monthly reversal on Friday

And trades above the descending trend line)

What may open the door towards 114.36-50 range (recent highs)

Or even 118.60/65 if we seen the Trump trade back

Resistance at 113.25

Support at 111.85 (23.6% Fibo), 112.28 (10 DMA)

Gold

Catalan vote had no major impact

Other geopolitical risks: NoKo, Kurdistan-Turkey, Iraq, Iran

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Support at 1272 (100 DMA), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/events

ECB’s Linde (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1015 & 1300 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1800 GMT)

Oct 1-4 – UK’s Tory party meeting

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Tue

Fed’s Powell

Thu

ECB Minutes

Fed’s Dudley

Fed’s Powell

Fed’s Williams

Fed’s Harker

Fri

US NFPs – 98k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev

Fed’s Bullard

Fed’s Kaplan

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 9, 2017 - UK elections/Brexit - few words...

David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Theresa May…all of them screwed up big time

Who is going to clean up the mess after them?

Article 50 triggered, UK leaving EU by Mar 31, 2019

May to speak at 0900 GMT

May likely to step down as Brits do not share her vision of Brexit

Dropping the Brexit would be the best outcome for Conservatives

No Scottish referendum in sight, as Scots favoured winning over May than voting for independence

EU – weak negotiating partner risks poor outcome

Two year Brexit talks deadline in question

Not sure how EU will react

All in all – more troubles and tensions ahead

But the message is clear as it was in Dutch and French elections, people do not wish a cheap populism

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 18, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower

Europe opening higher, UK lower but heading lower now

Markets getting ready for French elections this Sunday and developments around North Korea

Need some risk events to go away to focus on fundamentals and earnings season again

Trump congratulated Erdogan in a call

Appreciated Turkey’s support in Syria attack

Mnuchin smoothed out Trump’s comments against strong USD in a short term

Strong currency in a long term reflecting strength and confidence in the economy

But may hurt exports short term

Admitted that health care bill stop delaying tax reform discussions

US fully supporting Japan’s security

Japan appreciates all options against North Korea on the table

Chinese real estate prices keep rising

Despite cooling measures

Fed’s Fisher glad about muted market reaction to potential taper

Stocks

Genentech (Roche Holding) received approval from FDA on bladder cancer drug

Volkswagen positive on China sales grow this year

Wal-Mart looking to enter the online fashion world by Bonobos acquisition

To face competition from Amazon.com

Berkshire and Juwai.com working together to help Chinese to buy properties in US

Boeing keeps laying off employees

M&A in US telecom industry coming as the ban will be lifter in the coming days

Earnings season

Mostly US names reporting but Europe should bring more positive surprises

Need very strong earnings to push equity markets higher

Goldman Sachs – expecting a positive surprise supported by investment banking and bond trading. Markets also waiting for insides about the use of data and technology to be more efficient and profitable.

Bank of America – expecting positive results based on increased trading and rate hikes

UnitedHealth Group – should benefit from clients leaving Obamacare but lots of uncertainty after Trump lost the healthcare vote

IBM – not to surprise the market on a positive note as the company is still turning around

Johnson & Johnson – investors are curious how the company is coping with Obamacare repeal defeat, ongoing Actelion acquisition (USD 30 bln) and future plans

Yahoo – let’s check the last earnings report before getting acquired by Verizon

Bonds

GE-FR spread at 72 bps

Markets waiting for French elections results

Hedging started to go through the market last week

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.19%

EURUSD – support 1.0566 (23.6% Fibo)

Resistance 1.0706 (38.2% Fibo)

Buyers sitting in 1.0550-1.0600 area

USDJPY – Mnuchin setting support line for the cross

Strong support at 108.82 (200 DMA) holding

DXY – support at 100

Resistance 101 (76.4% Fibo/100 DMA)

Gold – looking at 1295/1300 resistance; 1315 (Fibo 76.4%)

Likely to correct first to 1263/1270; 1278 (Fibo 61.8%)

Reacting to retracing of JPY and bond yields

Oil – recent rally was supported by strong short-covering with few new longs

Data

Fed’s George to speak

Upcoming:

Apr 23 – French presidential elections - still 40% of voters undecided

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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