Feb 23, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian stocks took a breather

Europe opened mixed

FOMC Minutes showing cautiousness (not to forget that the meeting took place right after Trump inauguration that was accompanied with huge uncertainty)

But lots has happened since then

May rate hike priced at 50%

10-yr US Trys yield at 2.40% after FOMC

FR elections: Bayrou pulling out and expressing support for Macron

GE-FR spreads down by 10 bps as a reaction

Demand for Bunds (politically driven vs strong momentum in stocks from good macro data)…something fishy here

EURUSD – experienced short squeeze on the news but jump was more about hitting strong support around psychological 1.0500 level

AUDUSD – not sure about the direction

Reflation and commodity story to push higher

Rate spreads to weight on the cross

Nissan Motors – Carlos Ghosn to step down as CEO after 15 yrs with the company

Airbus looking at easing penalties from EU govs for delay in military aircraft contract

Tesla to start Model 3 production in Sep, reporting smaller loss

Bayer expecting agri products (pesticides) business flat this year

Focussing on Monsanto takeover completion (USD 66 bln)

More HFs warning about Trump stock rally being overdone

While EU political risks not priced in

UK Brexit – Australia and Israel to expand trade and investments

US Trs Sec Mnuchin making vague comments about effects of strong USD

UK and Canadian regulators to assist FinTech

Goldman Sachs expecting crude oil stocks to keep falling

OPEC is tightening but US shale production is rising on better effectiveness and cheap funding

Don’t really see the signs of improved demand

Commodities need more real demand & lower inventories to rally further

Most vulnerable are copper and longs in oil

Data

GE: Gfk Consumer Climate Index – out slightly higher

UK: CBI Distributive Trades Index as a leading indicator for retail spending should point slightly higher

US: Initial/Continuing weekly unemployment claims – expected marginally higher

US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – expected slightly higher

US: FHFA House Price Index

US: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

ECB Praet speaking (0855)

Atlanta Fed Lockhart speaking (1335) – likely to provide a recap of his 10 yrs at Fed as he retires soon

Dallas Fed Kaplan (voter) speaking (1800)

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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Feb 20, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

US markets closed on Monday on account of President’s Day (not to get confused with Trump, reference is to George Washington birthday)  :o)

CA markets closed as well on account of Family Day

DXY not reacting to Mar 15 hike increased likelihood (40%)

Fed likes to see the probability of rate hike above 75% to act

Will see whether Fed officials will be convincing enough to increase the probability before Mar 15

Kraft Heinz buying Unilever for USD 143 bln is off

US shale oil producers facing a rising costs (first time after couple of years)

Battle for German drug producer Stada keeps heating up with the latest Bain Capital acquisition proposal for USD 3.8 bln. The shares trading at new historic highs below EUR 58.

DAX likely to test 12 000 as strong underlying momentum continues

EURUSD – jumped from 1.0530 (61.8% Fibo) but range trading

Markets like to see the cross below 1.0700, pressured by political risks as well

1.0500/25 key for further testing below 1.0350

Lower Bund yields can be seen as risk off in EZ

10 yr Trys yields struggling to break 2.50% level, will see how market will react to hawkish comments from Fed officials

USDJPY – support around 112.50 + 23.6% Fibo + support in the form of descending trend line connecting high of Jan 3 & Jan 27

Then lows around 111.60

XAUUSD – still range bound 1220 (38.2% Fibo) and 1245/1250 (50% Fibo)

Data

UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey – hard to say after Dec negative surprise but Brexit impact is more and more visible

EZ: Consumer Confidence Indicator – expected to stay steady but upcoming elections in EZ could weigh on sentiment

EZ FinMin meeting today, no resolution expected on Greece

Feb 28 – Trump before Congress, is he going to disappoint?

Putin supporting the EZ or EU collapse? Not really...

Putin is definitely not interested in collapse of EZ

36% of Russian foreign currency reserves are in EUR (USD 48%)

Russian businessmen invested heavily in EU

EU is the largest trading partner for Russia with exports worth of almost USD 100 bln to EZ, what equals to exports to the rest of the world

Foreign direct investments to Russia from EZ total 70% of all FDI flowing to Russia

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 6, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

After FOMC and NFPs – markets should be focusing on steps with longer term impact like Fed hiking, roll-back of Dodd-Frank regulation, intrustructure, Obamacare and tax reform than short-term vows over immigration ban

EURUSD – 1.0800/50 still in place and the same goes for DXY at 99.00/50

From technical perspective unless both levels are broken, market is looking at USD from positive side (technically) despite still broad negative outlook

Further resistance around 1.0821/75 area with 200 DMA (may be eventually tested)

USDJPY – below important 112.00/50

AUDUSD – 0.7830 is critical

The bullish USD view to be reviewed if all of the above mentioned levels are broken.

EURUSD – may be verbally supported by the criticism for example from Schauble, who is not happy with weak EUR as it is negative for productivity even though Germany enjoys huge surpluses. His verbal comments are not to last long as he also knows that monetary policy is set for the whole EZ and not just Germany.

This fact, especially in the light of situation in Italy, may not be fully priced in by the market as the still rising divergence in inflation and economic growth among EZ countries is not either. Just by looking at widening of peripheral spreads warrants that ECB will not change its policy anytime soon. There is also another risk coming from regulation of sovereign bond holdings limits for the banks, what may in turn trigger the sell off in Italian bonds. If that happens, the ECB would need to step in. One shouldn’t be surprised if EURUSD rate depends on BTP-Bund spread and moves in tandem. Actually, that would be more accurate valuation metric along with political risks in EZ that trading EUR based on German economy.

Williams (Fed) was out after NFPs on Friday confirming that March meeting is a live meeting, thus opening the door for markets to learn more from Fischer as well as Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday next week.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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