Jan 15, 2018 - Market Update (USD hit by non-US monetary tightening, No Bitcoin ETFs/mutual funds (for now), Bulls at extreme levels, SoftBank to list mobile biz, EUR longs up again, EURUSD to consolidate today, Gold to attack 2017 high at 1357, facing 1357-1375 range resistance)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

Trumps racist comments are dangerous in general

And can also change the behaviour of the public

Thus hurting the consumption habits, investments and economy

FR and GE looking at EZ investment budget/reforms

USD hit by markets pricing monetary policy tightening in other developed countries

Bitcoin ETF Fast Track Derailed by SEC Liquidity, Safety Worries  link

Applications for 12 ETFs and 2 mutual funds withdrawn from SEC approval process

On liquidity and security concerns

Equities

SoftBank Group to list mobile phone biz (USD 18 bln)

This step should cement the ambitions as a global investor in tech

Lactalis to compensate the victims of Salmonella

BlackRock with USD 6 trln of AUM

Earnings

Markets ready for strong figures only

BofA, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Schlumberger, ASML reporting

Bulls are at extreme levels

Markets with 15 months of gains

Equity funds experiencing record inflows

Source: Yardeni Research

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.55% vs 2.55% on Friday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.58% vs 0.52% on Friday

2-yr Trys yield at 2.00% after a recent sharp rise

2-yr Bund yield at -0.62%

ECB’s Weidmann calling for exact QE end date

ECB still with QE despite economy getting stronger

Bill Gross (Janus): Bonds are in a bear market  link

“The 1.45% for tens can legitimately be cited as the end of the bond bull market which began at 15.8% in 1981 and provided prescient portfolio managers with the potential for huge capital gains and the moniker of “total return”

COT report

EUR longs at 145k vs 128k week before

JPY shorts at 126k vs 122k week before

GBP longs at 26k vs 16k week before

EURUSD

ECB Minutes after taste still in the market

Draghi is definitely happy as higher EUR and yields tighten monetary conditions

What in turn gives him more time to keep negative rates despite EZ economy is getting stronger 

EUR is also supported by GE coalition talks and Merkel/Macron calls for EZ reforms

Bullish outside week is completed

Consolidation should be the name of the game today

Support at 1.2100, 1.2088, 1.2078 (23.6% Fibo), 1.2046 (10 DMA), 1.2041 (2012 low)

Resistance at 1.2227 (50% Fibo of 2014/15 move), 1.2330 (descending trendline – 2008/2011/2014 and 2008 low)

But serious one at 1.2644 (61.8% Fibo)

For Elliott Waves lovers the 1.2288 is critical 

Looking from short side at EUR

EURUSD daily

Focus on Fibo levels and yellow zones

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD weekly

Focus on two red circles (highs and descending trendlines)

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Specs added 110k lots recently on weaker USD, geopolitical risks

Resistance at 1357 (2017 high) and 1357-75 range

Support at 1321 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Should be quite day 

US closed on account of Martin Luther King Jr day

Jan 19 – US fiscal deadline

Jan 23-26 – Trump in Davos with his crew

Will be interesting to see Macron/Merkel and the world

Against protectionism of Trump/US

Jan 23 – BoJ – any hints on potential taper?

Jan 25 - ECB

Jan 30 – US State of the Union

Jan 31 – FOMC

Feb 5 – Powell as Fed Chair

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 15, 2017 - Market Update (US inflation surprise making Dec Fed hike a 50/50 game, Weidmann like Draghi...eyeing his job?, Oil above USD 50 a stability for US shale, GBPUSD up to 1.3500, but weak USD can push it to 1.4000 despite heavy short specs, Trump trade making US small caps rally)

Short recap

Asian in red on NoKo playing with fire again but market corrected quickly

Europe opening mixed

ECB’s Weidmann out with comments like Draghi…getting ready for his job?

Aug US inflation at 1.9%, core 1.7%, higher than expected

Bringing Dec Fed hike to 50/50 probability

But economists predict Fed pausing…

Equities

Rupert Murdoch’s takeover of Sky not a done deal yet

Nestle taking over Blue Bottle Coffee

Low commodity prices make CNOOC stop a feasibility study of a LNG terminal in BC

Oil price above USD 50 bringing stability to US shale

Upcoming Trump trade shadow and tax deal making US small caps rally

France expects other EU members to join the tax fight against online companies like Amazon, Google

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18% vs 2.19% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% vs 0.40% yesterday

GBPUSD

BoE surprisingly very hawkish yesterday, opening the door to 1.3500

If USD takes a hit after today’s retail sales, can march higher towards 1.4000

Despite heavy short specs betting on Brexit mess

Platina

In case of risk off mood, can do much better than gold

As it trades at huge discount to it

Data/events

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0815 GMT)

Sep 19-20 FOMC – not expecting anything special

Fed is on the way to start USD 10 bln tapering as of Oct 1

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Aug 1, 2017 - Market Update (Can Trump hit rock bottom? Weidmann – EZ needs a reform, Chinese Anbang Insurance Group to sell overseas assets & bring cash home, Europe experiencing the strongest earnings season since 2017, EURUSD above 1.1785 (200 WMA))

Short recap

Asia slightly up

Europe opening higher

Can Trump hit rock bottom?      

Trump looking at executive action on healthcare

North Korea can hit most of US

ECB’s Weidmann – EZ needs a reform

Oil popped over USD 50 on high fuel demand and HF short covering

While supply still high

Equities

Shell putting a financial hand in solar firm Sunseap Group

BNP Paribas interested in Strutt & Parker

Brexit to increase the needs for capital by 30% and costs by 4% for banks

Trump taking on insurers after Obamacare repeal vote failed again

LabCorp eyeing Chiltern (USD 1.2 bln) to expand oncology activities

Tesla down on “manufacturing hell” as Elon Musk commented the production of Model 3

That may last 6 months until the cash burn ends and company will start to make profits

China asked Anbang Insurance Group (huge insurer) to sell its overseas assets and bring cash home

A sign of troubles coming… More here & here

Earnings

Europe experiencing the strongest earnings season since 2017 with EBITDA at record highs

US doing well too witnessing sales and EPS acceleration

Apple – market is expecting an increase in revenue on the back of higher sales of its smartphones while checking also on a new release if iPhone that may be delayed until Oct

Pfizer – to report higher earnings supported by breast cancer treatment sales. The drag on earnings might be (as of other peers too, the patent expirations)

FireEye, Devon Energy, Under Armour

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% vs 2.28% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.54% vs 0.54% yesterday

EURUSD

Broad weakness pushed EURUSD higher

Higher EZ inflation making market believe in a hawkish ECB

But looking at Fed not hiking this year again

Support 1.1690 (10 DMA), 1.1785 (200 WMA) – checking what’s going on there

Resistance 1.1200 more psychological of nature

USDJPY

Heavy on USD weakness

Bids at 110.00 (around option barrier)

Also some options (USD 1 bln) expiring around this level

Speculators may be hunting stops below 110.00

Resistance 110.97 (61.8% Fibo)

Support 110.14 (76.4% Fibo)

Data/events

Wed

Fed’s Mester (1600 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1930 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs – 173k exp

Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole

Draghi’s show up highly expected in the light of potential tapering

Any clues on EUR 60 bln monthly purchase being taken down o 40…or?

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 30, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian stocks with cautious on Greece and Italy

China, Hong Kong closed on account of public holiday

Europe opening lower

Greece readying for not paying EUR 7 bln installment if bail out agreement/haircut not reached

Some banks in Italy and Portugal still facing issues

Macron met with Putin in Paris

Draghi is please by improving economy but stimulus/extra low rates to stay

Weidmann said that ultra-loose policy still appropriate

Equities

Akzo Nobel’s rejection of the offer from PPG Industries (EUR 25 bln) blessed by court

Clouds mounting over Canadian banks (Home Capital & real estate) as well as Australian banks (Chinese capital controls not boding well for Aussie real estate)

US equities printing new highs and volatility down putting global equities to positive light

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.24%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.30%

EURUSD

Under pressure from Greece, potential snap elections in Italy, mess around UK and dovish Draghi

IT to introduce a new election threshold for parties (5%+)

What in turn will reduce number of parties elected to 4 from current 10+

Greek debt not to be included to QE program from ECB anytime soon

Nor Greece financing themselves in the markets

1.1140/55 range acting as resistance

If we close below the 1.1000 in sight

If we break than the 1.0840 will likely be the next

1.1000 – growing importance 

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo Nov/Jan)

1.0978 (50.0% Fibo Nov/Jan)

Large option EUR 2.7 bln with strike 1.1100 expiring today

USDJPY

Offers around 111.50

Stops likely below 110.85 level, bids can show up on a break

Large options (USD 2 bln) with strikes below 111.00 expiring today

200 DMA at 110.15 – a pretty strong support…

Data

GE: Flash CPI m/m expected at -0.1% and y/y expected at 1.6% vs 2.0% prior

US: PCE m/m expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% previous; y/y was 1.6% previously

ECB’s Liikanen (1015 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny (1600 GMT)

Fed’s Brainard (1700 GMT)

Wed

EZ: Flash CPI – should move back to 0.8% level from 1.2% prior

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

Beige Book

ECB’s Coeure, Lautenschlaeger

Fed’s Kaplan, Williams

Thu

ECB’s Villeroy

Fed’s Powell

Fri

US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior

Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior

Fed’s Harker

EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 29, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher but correcting

US & UK closed today on account of public holidays, some Asian countries as well

N. Korea playing with fire again

ZAR – Zuma still alive

Europe on its won after G7 and Merkel/Trump meeting

Tensions between US & EU mounting, nothing to change in the near term

Thank you Mr President for your kind EU/NATO wake up call

US to ban laptops from all flights in/out to US

US facing a shortage of houses while demand stays steady

What in turn will likely push prices higher in the years to come

Fed’s Williams – don’t want to disrupt the markets, medium term inflation trend “pretty favourable”

Equities

British Airways still experiencing issues with computer system

Investment conference in NY – may have some headlines on Q2 expectations from financials

Gazprom meeting with EU antitrust chief

Bombardier with first CS300 deliveries

US techs pushing US gov to increase privacy protection

Qualcomm to pay BlackBerry USD 940 mln in royalties

Chinese real estate companies flying high…may be too high…

Aramco – after LSE, NYSE it is now turn for Canadian TSE to lure IPO listing relying on its natural resources expertize

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%

Quiet trading ahead of ECB and Fed June meetings

GE/EZ inflation data to show whether ECB is right with staying cautious on inflation ahead of June 8 meeting

Italy – markets will start to focus on Italy at some point

As EZ grows but Italy doesn’t

Japanese insurers like US bonds more over European papers (staying cautious)

They usually lend them to banks to earn extra income

EURUSD

1.1160 still acting as a support

1.1200 heavy as a resistance

1.1314 (76.4% Fibo)

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo)

Large option EUR 2.7 bln with strike 1.1100 expiring tomorrow

May point lower as we had an inverted hammer on weekly chart

And DXY found support above 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Offers around 111.50

50 DMA at 111.23 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

EURAUD 

Looking to buy pullbacks as favorite scenario for now...

Weekly Commodity - Full article link

Tough week for commodities, crude, industrial metals, soybeans down, corn and wheat traders still hesitant

Data

ECB’s Nowotny (0715 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1300 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann

Tue

GE: Flash CPI

US: PCE m/m expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% previous; y/y was 1.6% previously

Fed’s Brainard

Wed

EZ: Flash CPI – should move back to 0.8% level from 1.2% prior

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

Beige Book

ECB’s Coeure, Lautenschlaeger

Fed’s Kaplan, Williams

Thu

ECB’s Villeroy

Fed’s Powell

Fri

US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior

Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior

Fed’s Harker

EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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May 15, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up despite cyber attack and North Korea

Europe opening higher despite more cyber attack threats

Chinese Belt and Silk Road initiative uniting Asia, Africa and EU versus Trump’s America first

ECB’s Weidmann – Macron’s win and strengthening recovery sets ECB to unwind the ultra-loose policy

But inflation needs to be more sustainable

Fed’s Evans – to start balance sheet reduction at the end of 2017 and can take 3-4 years

Low volatility – need to wait for business cycle reversal to see the volatility spiking as political or security risks are not good enough reasons

Equities

HFs, MMs and top investors to reveal their Q1 regulatory fillings of their purchases/sales of stocks

Would be very interesting reading with respect to Trump trade

Dassault Aviation looking at new contract next year

Lidl to make a footprint in US this summer

GE supporting NAFTA, to continue growth in Mexico

And double its purchases from there

Spotify to launch listing on NYSE (USD 13 bln)

AstraZeneca up on lung cancer drug trial results

Lilly confident with migraine treatment results

Home Capital planning asset sales to repay CAD 2 bln loan

CIBC got green light to buy PrivateBancorp

No more upfront bonuses from BoAML to lure the talent (end of industry practice)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.39%

June hike probability down to around 78% from above 90%

DXY

USD stayed quite resilient despite weaker US data, yields and political mess in US

Needs better Q2 data and Washington to deliver

Otherwise the 1.1022 (FR election high will be in focus)

Resistance 99.26 (Fibo 61.8%), 99.18 (200 DMA), 99.08 (10 DMA)

EURUSD

EUR net specs turned long 1^st time since May 2014

EZ data and Merkel’s advance supportive

Had bit of consolidation above 200 DMA at 1.0824

Selling area may be around 1.0950/75 ahead of rising trendline at 1.0982

Interest to buy likely towards 1.0830/40

61.8% Fibo at 1.0933 acting as resistance

10 DMA at 1.0918

USDJPY

Resistance 113.76 (76.4% Fibo)

Offers likely around 113.50 and towards 114.00

Support at 113.20 (10 DMA), 112.97 (100 DMA) and 112.68 (61.8% Fibo)

Gold

Was on the way toward 1200 but North Korea, weaker US data and unpredictability of Trump stopped the move

COT report – no selling/increase of shorts just longs liquidation

Resistance at 1245 (200 DMA), 1255 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 1230 (50% Fibo & 10 DMA)), 1228 (100 DMA) and 1204 (38.2% Fibo)

Oil

Russia, Saudis supporting 9-month cut deal extension

Oil run on short-covering only

Floating storage down by 1/3

Chinese eying oil and gas from US

Chinese steel production at record high (to benefit from rising prices) while demand flat

Despite gov attempts to curb production

Upcoming

Speakers:

Nouy (ECB), Dombret (Buba) 1050 GMT

Praet (ECB) 1145 GMT

Angeloni (ECB) 1645 GMT

Tue

ECB’s Nowotny, Coeure speaking

Thu

ECB’s Mersh speaking

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri

ECB’s Constancio speaking

Fe’s Bullard speaking

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike above 78%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 6, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia down on Fed planning to reduce its balance sheet while more doubts about Trump ability to deliver fiscal stimulus makes rounds in the markets

Saw strength in JPY, VIX and USDJPY vols sharply higher, AUDJPY on the short side

Europe opening lower

Draghi was just out – Monetary policy still appropriate, reassessment not warranted at this stage, still need to build sufficient confidence, not having enough evidence to change inflation forecast

FOMC Minutes – Fed officials seriously discussed the shrinking of balance sheet with possible start at the end of 2017 but not sure whether through direct sales or not reinvesting maturing papers

ADP numbers confirmed strong underlying hiring trend by US companies

Trump expressed himself that Asad crossed the red line in chemical attack on civilians

But haven’t specified anything more (seems like he is learning how to communicate…before meeting Xi today at least)

Toronto house prices up 33% on a year with average price around CAD 916k per property

Sounds like a bubble

To watch global financials and credit for a potential upcoming correction

Monsanto reported better results helped by seeds of soybean and corn

AkzoNobel shareholders may go against the company in order to push for take over talks with PPG Industries

As mentioned yesterday after positive US antitrust ruling the EU officials approved the ChemChina takeover of Syngenta as well yesterday

Apple to control more the core technologies due to margins, further innovation and decrease dependence on 3^rd party suppliers

Rockwell to buy B/E Aerospace (USD 6.4 bln)

Amazon looking to buy hydrogen fuel cell maker Plug Power

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.25%

Data

GE: Factory orders lower than expected

EZ: Retail PMI expected lower

US: Jobless Claims expected lower

ECB Praet (0730 GMT) Weidmann (0940 GMT), Constancio (1145 GMT) speaking

ECB Minutes (1130 GMT) - should provide more clarity either on market overraction or misjudgement of Draghi's speech

Trump to meet Chinese president (2 days)

G20 Econ ministers meeting

NATO foreign ministers meeting (2 days)

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

Fred Williams (today)

James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 3, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly higher

Europe opening higher

JPM and GS cut the US GDP outlook

Fed talking about shrinking of balance sheet in H2

Inflation heading lower in EU but higher in US (PCE)

Institutional investors lowered their exposure to US and UK equities on risks related to fading Trump rally and Brexit/UK brake-up risks

Poland to announce the purchase agreement of eight Patriot antimissile systems soon (USD 7.6 bln)

S&P 500 turning bearish?

Descending trendline but above 50 DMA

First rulings over Volkswagen emission scandal to come soon from German courts

Monsanto to report earnings on Wed, market expecting strong numbers

As farmers look at record planting of soybean and corn, South America doing well as well

Tesla shipped more cars than expected in Q1

Market looking at steeper production rise in H2

If that happens, stock price to move higher

BlackBerry surprised and proved that the move to more lucrative business software field was right decision

Boeing’s largest 787-10 Dreamliner successfully complete its first flight

CFTC speculative positions as of Mar 27:

EUR flat, massive liquidation of USD longs, significant reduction in JPY shorts, GBP keeps record shorts

WTI longs still liquidated

Oil – the sign of relief for bulls is the break of USD 51.95 and USD 54.45 (61.8% Fibo) in both WTI and Brent

EURUSD – support at 1.0570 (23.6% Fibo)

If broken likely to test the lows around 1.0340

DXY – support at trendline

Resistance at 100.50 and 101.00

USDJPY – USD might have run out of steam after reversal on Friday

Resistance at 112.16

Vols trading extremely low

Watch AUDJPY for any signs of downside and potential risk off hedge

10-yr Trys yield at 2.40% (sitting in a mid-range)

10-yr Bunds yield down to 0.32% on a strong change in the stance on inflation expectations and confirmation of ECB’s neutral position in policy tightening

Data

China on holiday until Wed

EZ: Unemployment to print new low

US: ISM Manufacturing Index expecting slightly lower

US: Construction market looking at higher number

Tue:

EU making a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve

Wed:

FOMC Minutes

Thu:

ECB Draghi, Weidmann and Praet speaking (especially Draghi’s remarks on inflation will be closely watched)

ECB Minutes

Trump to meet Chinese president

Trump to use trade to wage on North Korea

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

William Dudley (Mon at 1430 GMT)

Patrick Harker (Mon at 1900 GMT)

Jaffrey Lacker (Mon)

Daniel Tarullo (Tue)

Fred Williams, James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 21, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia printing highs

EU markets opening higher

Macron the winner of French presidential debate but Hillary Clinton was too

Weidmann (ECB) current policy is appropriate

Evans (Fed) will make decision about next hike in June

Will know more about financial and fiscal conditions and data

A small reaction to his speech only

UK to trigger Art 50 on Mar 29

FBI investigating links between Trump’s campaign and Russia

China to open further its economy to foreign capital (services, manufacturing, mining…etc.)

To support foreign securities listings and investments in science, technology and infrastructure

All of that seems like the opposite to Trump world

BNP Paribas ready to fill the gap in investment banking field in Europe

As it sees opportunities after its rivals scaled back activities there and in a hunt for an increase in revenue

Porsche family interested in Porsche shares owned by Piech family

Nike reporting today, struggling with increasing competition from Under Armour and Adidas

Eli Lilly having positive results from a combination of drugs treating breast cancer

Opel cleared in France in diesel emission investigation

S&P 500 still in uptrend

Support at 2365 then 2354

DAX still in uptrend channel

Support rising trendline, 11 930 and 11 480/500 levels

Oil not much upside potential

Likely to settle in lower range

Gold neutral

Levels: 1220-1238 then 1261 and Fibo levels

10-yr Trys yield at 2.48%

Saw additional strength in Trys as June hike priced lower at 40%

Risk of Trys yields to decline to lower range of 2.30%-2.50/60% band

Data

UK: Consumer Price Index expected to rise above 2%

UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey ready for a slight decline

US: Current account expecting deficit to widen

JP: BoJ Minutes

Speakers (GMT)

BoE Carney (1035)

Fed: Dudley (1035), George (1600), Mester (2200), Rosenberg

Central banks’ future action:

Fed toward 3%

BoE not before late 2018

ECB and BoJ no action

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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