Sep 14, 2017 - Market Update (Trump maturing, ECB not in a rush to hike, DAX at crucial 12 500, Back to Trump trade?, EURUSD at support zone 1.1 870/80, Amazon.com to sell sombreros, Munich Re hit by hurricanes, Oracle in the cloud)

Short recap

Asian down on weaker Chinese data

Europe opening mixed

Trump getting more experienced (less tweeting)

And starting meeting people (like Rep/Dem leaders) to move things forward

ECB to keep a steady hand on easy policy as inflation stays very low

Chinese steel mills production reaching record highs

Bitcoin on a weak foot after JPMorgan’s Dimon fraud comment

Historically, it is not the high valuations that trigger the stock market correction but the change in macro

Thus China and credit markets holding the key

Equities

EU short of EUR 5.4 bln from taxes from Google and Facebook

DAX at 12 500 – a crucial for further development

Apple likely to face delays in iPhone X shipping going to holiday season

Amazon.com to build a huge warehouse in Mexico

Kaspersky on the way out of US gov networks

Volkswagen along with FAW, SAIC recalling 4.9 mln cars

Munich Re hit by hurricanes

Oracle reporting today, market to check how successful their cloud business is. Expecting rise in revenue.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.19% - seems comfortable within the 2.10-30 range

10-yr Bund yield at 0.40%

DXY

Can we expect a return of Trump trade? Tax reform, infrastructure and capital repatriation

All pointing to stronger economy and higher USD…

Strong support at 91.88 (2016 low), then 92.16 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 93.36 (50 DMA) and strong one at 92.74 (200 WMA)

EURUSD

Sitting at strong support zone 1.1870/80

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Next support 1.1752 (50 DMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1931 (10 DMA), 1.1940 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Trading above 110.00

Support at 110.40 (76.4% Fibo),

Resistance at 110.55 (50 DMA), 110.97 (61.8% Fibo), 111.23 (Ichimoku cloud), 111.15 (100 DMA)

Resistance comes also from rising trendline forming triangle

Gold

Gold lower on higher USD despite stocks correcting

Support around 1300 but market may be comfortable at 1315 as well

Resistance at 1333 (10 DMA)      

Data/events

ECB’s Weidmann (1530 GMT)

ECB’s Mersch (1600 GMT)

Fri

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0815 GMT)

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 28, 2017 - Market Update (Draghi's reflation & Yellen's “no new financial crisis in our lifetime” words, Cyber attacks - a new era to come? Bonds, equities down - a new risk off combination? JPY a perfect summer carry trade)

Short recap

Asia down inspired by US session after another delay of healthcare bill vote

Europe opening lower

World coping with another cyber attack – a new era to come?

Draghi replaced deflationary forces by reflationary ones and pushed EUR higher

Sounds like woo-doo to me when we talk about “forces”…

But overall his speech was in line with dovish policy. More link  

Yellen was out with “no new financial crisis in our lifetime” comment, meaning as long as she is alive. More link

Healthcare reform vote delayed as Republicans score a goal to their own net

Bonds and equities on defensive overall yesterday what makes an interesting risk off combination

Carry trades to suffer, thus EM and high yield DM not to do well if current setup continues

Equities

Techs, biotechs and EM bleeding

Nestle to buy back CHF 20 bln worth of shares over 3 years

Option traders looking at AstraZeneca from a short side as the market positions itself for lung cancer trial results

Alphabet hit by EUR 2.4 bln fine from EU for abusive behaviour in search engine

Not effecting long term business as the fine is just 3% of cash/1.5 month of cash flow

Facebook at 2 bln user mark, doubling since 2012

Syngenta (owned by Chinese) interested in Bayer assets that need to be sold

As a part of Monsanto takeover deal

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.22% vs 2.14% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.39% vs 0.25% yesterday

DXY

Support 95.90, then 94.70 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance 96.44 (50.0% Fibo)

EURUSD

Market was caught by surprise with Draghi’s reflationary forces comment

What was also confirmed by price action

If we see the 1.1295/1300 holding, we are likely marching through 1.1400

But the historical supply range comes towards 1.1500 (check the weekly chart)

Central bankers to drive the show today too

Support at 1.1366, 1.1300

Resistance at 1.1400, 1.1415/30, 1.1464, 1.1500

Weekly chart (Source: Saxo Bank)

Daily chart (Source: Saxo Bank)

USDJPY

Dip buying as a strategy? As some may see carry trade going to summer pushing JPY lower

Exporters holding sell orders at 112.50

Bids towards 112.00, more below

Support 111.80 (100 DMA) and then 111.50 with USD 2.5 bln option expiring

Resistance 112.24 (61.8% Fibo), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)

Data/Events

Fed’s Williams (0730 GMT)

Central bankers meeting in Portugal:

ECB’s Mersch (0900 GMT), Lautenschlager (1045 GMT), Constancio (1130 GMT), Draghi (1330 GMT),

BoE’s Carney (1330 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1330 GMT)

BoC’s Poloz (1330 GMT)

Thu

Fed’s Bullard (1700 GMT)

US Trade deficit report to be released – what accusations can we expect?

July 7/8 – G20 meeting – will Trump meet with Putin?

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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June 27, 2017 - Market Update (US 30-yr Trys yield flatening further, EURUSD stuck within 1.11-1.1300 range, Gold flash crash but long specs reduced while keeping the bullish bias on political uncertainity, Mkango to lauch rare-earth production in Malawi, Alibaba's Best to do delivery services, Alphabet + Avis, Apple + Herzt)

Short recap

Asia up on expectations of Yellen confirming later today one more hike this year

Europe opening lower

Trump’s small victory (finally something) as Supreme Court made some parts of travel ban applicable

Trump-Modi (India) meeting was full of socializing

China-Canada agreed not to perform cyber attacks on private businesses to steal trade/confidential info

Fed’s Duddley sees easy financial conditions, high stocks as another reason to hike one more time this year

Draghi – no QE/bond buying for Greece

Equities

Sistema, MTS in legal fight with Rosneft and Russian courts

A logistic company Best (linked to Alibaba) looking to raising approximately USD 750 mln in US IPO

As Alibaba is betting on further rise in e-commerce and the need for delivery services

Mkango to launch rare-earth production in Malawi in 2020

One of the very few projects outside China

At full capacity should produce 3000 tonnes a year

Facebook planning to launch TV quality shows, already in touch with Hollywood

Some Italian banks saved (just for now), next is Portugal

Alphabet to work with with Avis, Apple with Herzt on self-driving fleets, data collection and self-driving software "training"

But Apple likely missed the train as Alphabet and others are years ahaed...

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.14%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25%

30-yr Trys yields dropped to 2.69% after weak data yesterday, thus flattening the yield curve further

Making the spread with 5-yr yield only 94 bps

The whole move was based on fading inflation expectations

As investors point to low oil prices and falling conviction of people about rising prices

Until these two change, the curve will keep flattening

EURUSD

Bear in mind end of month/quarter and mid-year flows

Stuck in the 1.1100-1.1300 range, needs a good catalyst

No carry trade flows as the EUR yields are too low

Capital flows prefer JPY, CHF as funding currencies

Support at 1.1189 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo), 10 DMA at 1.1172

Resistance 1.1195 (hourly Ichimoku), then 1.1228

USDJPY

Broke the resistance without any support from US yields

Offers were sitting at 112.00, may still be present

Battling with Ichimoku

But carry trades funding flows should keep JPY weak

Resistance at 111.79 (100 DMA), 112.25 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 111.58 (50.0% Fibo), 111.33 (50 DMA)

Gold

Still holding well on political uncertainty globally

Waiting for Fed speakers today

While huge sell order from yesterday didn’t change the sentiment

Market saw a sale of 18.5k lots of gold and 5.5k lots of silver

In a very short time span likely by mistake as all was bought back afterwards

The drop in price triggered also stops below 1250 what took the spot to 1236 level

Should see much more selling as we witnessed a sharp reduction in longs

Today’s levels:

Resistance: rising trendline, 1245 (61.8% Fibo), 1249 (100 DMA), 1250 (10 DMA)

Support: 1235 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo)

Data/Events

ECB’s Draghi (0800 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (0805 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (0830 GMT)

ECB’s Praet

BoE’s Carney (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Harker (1500 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (1700 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (2130 GMT)

Wed

Fed’s Williams (0730 GMT)

Central bankers meeting in Portugal (1330 GMT):

ECB’s Draghi, Constancio, Mersch

BoE’s Carney

BoJ’s Kuroda

BoC’s Poloz

Thu

Fed’s Bullard (1700 GMT)

US Trade deficit report to be released – what accusations can we expect?

July 7/8 – G20 meeting – will Trump meet with Putin?

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 16, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia flat

Europe opening higher

BoJ no change, upgrading consumption, domestic and global growth

To keep support as inflation is far from 2%

Greece getting EUR 8.5 bln loan

What about central banks raising the inflation targets to 3-4% range instead of 2% one?

Would it create the psychological pressure on households and corporates to spend/invest more?

Fed ok with hikes despite lower inflation pressures and job market is still strengthening

As financial markets conditions constantly improving since Mar 2016

Equities

US retailers suffer with almost 300 bankruptcies this year

US techs fall out stopped again around 5650 area for NASDAQ

Seems like correction without any panic is welcome

Nike to cut jobs and streamline offering

Apple suffering the most from techs selloff

Facebook fighting terrorism via removing content

Uber looking at trucks

BHP with new Chairman

Nestle likely to sell US business of Butterfinger and BabyRuth

BP and Reliance Industries to take on gas production in India (USD 6 bln)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.17%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%

EURUSD

Support at 1.1120 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Digesting FOMC

While BoJ seems off the interest of markets

Resistance at 111.24 (50.0% Fibo), then 111.37 and 112.00 Ichimoku

100 DMA at 111.88

Support at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.58 (200 DMA)

Descending trendline around 111.00

Closing today above 110.80 level would be a bullish outside week signal

With potential to look at 114.36 after breaking 111.24 level

DXY

Close to resistance at 97.62, then 97.85 (50.0% Fibo)

And descending trendline around 97.98

Gold

Under pressure post-FOMC

Expecting a wait-and-see game, as there is still decent physical demand due to geopolitical risks

While investors need to assess upcoming US data to get more comfortable with Fed’s hawkish tilt

Support at 100 DMA at 1247, 1245 (61.8% Fibo), 200 DMA at 1237 and 1234 (76.4% Fibo)

Resistance at 1255 (50.0%)

Upcoming Data/Events

Fed’s Kaplan (1645 GMT)

Sunday – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Monday – Brexit talks starting ?

Thursday – EU Summit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 3, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mostly in green with some hesitation about Fed looking at June hike

Europe opening lower

Trump a bit “disruptive” in international field

Open to government shutdown, pushing for faster voting on bills

US pushing China to agree on additional North Korea sanctions

Brexit – GE-FR agreed on tougher stance towards UK’s post-Brexit obligations (EUR 100 bln) Full article

UK announced that they will not pay this amount, want to discuss in details what are the rights and obligations

I love this one too…what discussions, all is written on the paper and signed by them

Equities

Akzo Nobel meeting today to discuss offer PPG Industries (USD 29 bln)

Peugeot to test self-driving cars in Singapore in a partnership with nuTonomy

US auto sales losing the steam, the cycle likely comes to an end

Valeant should be able to repay USD 5 bln by Feb 2018

Apollo, Blackstone, Centerbridge interested in Brookfield Asset Management (CA)

Fairfax Financial looking to buy Home Capital

Active fund managers are underweighted Apple versus indices despite high level of share price

VIX at 10.59 level – time to buy put options?

Earnings season

Apple’s iPhone sales/revenue down (customers waiting for a new device), feeling the replacement cycle

Facebook – expecting higher revenue on mobile-ads, market to focus on hiring and planned investments

AIG – markets is awaiting a CEO succession plan

Tesla – investors are very curious about the company results as the company deliveries in Q1 jumped by 69% to record 25k

Home Capital Group (CA) – closely watched as there are few bids in the wake of financial difficulties following mortgage fraud accusation in the bubbling Canadian housing market

Others reporting: Prudential Financial, MetLife, Yum Brands, Kraft Heinz Foods, Time Warners

Bonds

ECB bought much more FR (EUR 11.3 bln and IT (EUR 9.8 bln) bonds last month, while GE bonds purchases were in line

Amount that is in breach of the usual allocation key

ECB did so ahead of FR elections and due to issues IT is coping with

10-yr Trys yield at 2.29% - trading a bit stronger ahead of FOMC

10-yr Bund yield at 0.32%

10-yr Greek yield declined substantially to 6.16%

Gold – waiting for a catalyst: FOMC, US NFPs

Support 1249 (50% Fibo) and 1250 (50/200 DMA)

Data

EZ: Q1 GDP flash estimate – no change to 0.5%

US: ADP Employment report – expecting lower growth in April

US: ISM Non-Manufacturing – expected slightly higher

Obamacare vote expected today/tomorrow

FOMC statement to be released (no press conference)

Likely to discuss balance sheet (USD 4.5 tln, pace of rate hikes, no policy change expected)

Just to refresh:

March PCE came at 1.6% as expected

Market pricing June hike at 70%

Upcoming

Friday – US NFPs

Focus on earnings while headline may not be stellar due to Easter holiday

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round (Macron/Le Pen – 60/40)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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