Nov 29, 2017 - Market Update (OPEC day but will Russia, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria join? Preliminary Brexit bill EUR 50 bln, Gold attacking 1300 but..., EU to freeze funding for tax heavens, to prepare new black/grey lists, Softbank looking to buy Uber shares at 30% discount, Bitcoin a threat to global economy?)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

OPEC day today with not only oil but energy stocks in focus

NoKo threating with new missile test again

But no reaction from the markets (a sign that conflict escalation is low for the time being)

Powell with dovish tilt, no change to rate path

HFs having hard time to earn money from bond and FX trading

And may move over to strategies of flattening of US yield curve and USD weakness next year

Brexit – rumours about preliminary exit bill agreement (UK agreed to pay much of EU bill, likely EUR 50 bln)

GBP on a stronger foot today

Senate vote on tax bill already on Thursday

EU to freeze funding for tax heavens, new black and grey list coming

Britain, Malta and Netherlands used for aggressive tax planning

Bitcoin above 10k (up 940% in 2017)

Not threatening the world economy by its seize but creating a psychological bubble

Equities

Goldman Sachs interested in metals trading arm of Scotiabank (USD 1 bln)

Softbank looking to buy Uber shares at 30% discount

Royal Dutch Shell partnering with car producers in installing super-fast chargers in Europe

Oil majors moving aggressively to shale 

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

It's Time to Get Out of Emerging Asian Currencies: LGT  link  

Slower growth in China, U.S. tax reform are both set to weigh

Higher interest rates are already largely priced in

EURUSD

Resistance 1.1886 (61.8%)

Support 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo/10 DMA). 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014/15 decline)

USDJPY

Support 111.02 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 111.58 (100 DMA), 111.68 (200 DMA), 111.80 (10 DMA), 111.89 (38.2% Fibo)

Gold

Getting some support from NoKo provocations but needs more JPY strength to move higher

Dowside is limited on geopolitical and economic risks

Not able to break 1300 (Fibo, psychological resistance)

Next resistance 1306, 1313, 1321 (23.6% Fibo)

Support 1288 (10 DM), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1283-85 (50/100 DMA)

Weekly Commodity: Oil bulls supported by Canadian supply disruption, Thursday OPEC meeting in focus  link

Data/events

OPEC meeting – to discuss cut extension and duration

Is Russia on the same page? As many independent producers may not necessarily obey the cuts

What about Iraq, Libya, Nigeria as they keep pumping

US inventories up while shale oil production rising

ECB’s Constancio (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen hearing (1500 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann (1700 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1745 GMT)

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Dec 21 – BoJ

Dec 21 – Catalonia elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 13, 2017 - Market Update (May on the way out, Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal/no deal, Alibaba on fire with global Singles' Day sales, Uber heading to IPO with Softbank getting closer to the deal, US inflation to show direction for yields, EURUSD back to range 1.1570/1.1670, Gold - long liquidation below 1280 level?)

Short recap

Asia in red as investors becoming cautious on ability of US lawmakers to work out the tax reform

Europe opening higher

South China Sea disputes on again

Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal

As May is under enormous pressure from her own political party to step down

While EU made it clear that UK needs to honor its commitments (in other words how much they will pay for divorce)

Meanwhile EU getting ready for no agreement with UK

As UK not open to offer any new divorce figure

Equities

Alibaba on fire with Singles’ Day sales up 39% y/y hitting USD 25 bln globally

Uber heading to IPO at certain point with Softbank getting closer to company with USD 10 bln deal

PSA to build cars in Algeria

Visa sees a cut in UK spending

Soros, Tepper, Einhorn, Icahn to issue a regulatory fillings Mon/Tue

A nice reading that will show the changes their stock/asset holdings

Earnings

Home Depot, Tencent, Cisco, Applied Materials, Target, Best Buy, Wal-Mart

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39% vs 2.34% on Friday morning

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% vs 0.37% on Friday morning

US CPI & US Retail sales on Wed two of last major data ahead of Dec Fed hike decision

Especially inflation will have significant impact on yields

EURUSD

Still consolidating, no decision on H&S

Consolidating above 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1623 (200 HMA), 1.16256 (10 DMA)

And below 1.1649 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

What’s next? Any continuation of 1.1570-1.1670 range?

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Bids sitting below 113.25, larger seen at/below 113.00

Offers seen ahead of 114.00 with stops above

Resistance at 113.79 (10 DMA), 114.40/50

Support at 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Gold

Back to mid-range also with the help of 4 mln ounces sell order on Friday

Ongoing no major upside interest can turn into longs liquidation below 1280

US bond yields higher having greater impact than potential delay in US tax reform or Brexit developments

Even the uncertainty in Middle East doesn’t seem to have a big impact for now

Resistance 1277 (10 DMA), 1278 (100 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1293 (50 DMA)

Support 1263 (61.8% Fibo/200 DMA)

 

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Constancio (0900 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny (1600 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1745 GMT)

EU Foreign Council meeting

Tue

Fed’s Evans (0805 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0900 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (1000 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Bostic (1805 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 16, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia flat

Europe opening higher

BoJ no change, upgrading consumption, domestic and global growth

To keep support as inflation is far from 2%

Greece getting EUR 8.5 bln loan

What about central banks raising the inflation targets to 3-4% range instead of 2% one?

Would it create the psychological pressure on households and corporates to spend/invest more?

Fed ok with hikes despite lower inflation pressures and job market is still strengthening

As financial markets conditions constantly improving since Mar 2016

Equities

US retailers suffer with almost 300 bankruptcies this year

US techs fall out stopped again around 5650 area for NASDAQ

Seems like correction without any panic is welcome

Nike to cut jobs and streamline offering

Apple suffering the most from techs selloff

Facebook fighting terrorism via removing content

Uber looking at trucks

BHP with new Chairman

Nestle likely to sell US business of Butterfinger and BabyRuth

BP and Reliance Industries to take on gas production in India (USD 6 bln)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.17%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%

EURUSD

Support at 1.1120 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Digesting FOMC

While BoJ seems off the interest of markets

Resistance at 111.24 (50.0% Fibo), then 111.37 and 112.00 Ichimoku

100 DMA at 111.88

Support at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.58 (200 DMA)

Descending trendline around 111.00

Closing today above 110.80 level would be a bullish outside week signal

With potential to look at 114.36 after breaking 111.24 level

DXY

Close to resistance at 97.62, then 97.85 (50.0% Fibo)

And descending trendline around 97.98

Gold

Under pressure post-FOMC

Expecting a wait-and-see game, as there is still decent physical demand due to geopolitical risks

While investors need to assess upcoming US data to get more comfortable with Fed’s hawkish tilt

Support at 100 DMA at 1247, 1245 (61.8% Fibo), 200 DMA at 1237 and 1234 (76.4% Fibo)

Resistance at 1255 (50.0%)

Upcoming Data/Events

Fed’s Kaplan (1645 GMT)

Sunday – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Monday – Brexit talks starting ?

Thursday – EU Summit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 12, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly higher

Europe opening mixed

BoJ is passionate about 2% inflation in 2018

Trade barriers a dead end – comments from Fed’s Dudley

Fed officially commenting on Trump policies

US financial conditions keep easing, thus giving a green light to Fed for June rate hike

Fed just proved that it is very closely watching politics

As they moved their Nov meeting by one day from Tue/Wed to Wed/Thu (Nov 7/8)

Due to mid-term elections on Tue Nov 6

PBOC injected medium term liquidity to support the economy

While keeps tight grip on short term lending to curb speculations

UK politicians still not telling all to British public

May is getting ready for a hard Brexit

Equities

Uber is a transport service and not an app

What is a huge challenge with legal/licensing consequences for Uber in EU market

Rosneft having hard time to acquire Essar Oil (USD 12.9 bln) as company's creditors have the say

Vivendi to merge with Havas

Barclays’ investment bank arm looking to hire up to 100 new bankers as a part of reorganization

Wells Fargo very active in cost cutting but outlook stays not that convincing

Goldman Sachs launching a new dark pool for trading stocks

The private trading venue will be run by Nasdaq

Macy’s and Kohl’s weak earnings proving that the sector is struggling big times with online competition

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.38%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.43%

DXY – a bit mixed yesterday

But well above 200 DMA (99.17)

Support also at 99.26 (61.8% Fibo)

Rising trendline acting as a resistance now

Next is 101.00 (76.4% Fibo)

EURUSD

As yesterday the 1.0850 is pivotal

Followed by the 1.0825/30 area (21 & 200 DMA) – if broken, likely to see more downside

1^st round FR election gap is the next to watch

USDJPY

Next 115.00/50 and 118.60 highs may be in focus

Support at 113.76 (76.4% Fibo), 113.00 (100 DMA) and 113.09 (10 DMA)

Gold

Resistance at 1228 (100 DMA), 1230 (50% Fibo) and 1255 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 1204 (38.2% Fibo)

Upcoming

US: CPI

Core CPI m/m 0.2% exp vs -0.1% prior

Core CPI y/y 2.0% exp vs 2.0% prior

CPI m/m 0.2% exp vs -0.3% prior

CPI y/y 2.3% exp vs 2.4% prior

US : Retail sales

US : University of Michigan Index

Fed's Evans speaking 1300 GMT

Fed’s Harker speaking 1630 GMT

G7 Fin Mins & Central bankers meeting

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike above 90%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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