Aug 1, 2017 - Market Update (Can Trump hit rock bottom? Weidmann – EZ needs a reform, Chinese Anbang Insurance Group to sell overseas assets & bring cash home, Europe experiencing the strongest earnings season since 2017, EURUSD above 1.1785 (200 WMA))

Short recap

Asia slightly up

Europe opening higher

Can Trump hit rock bottom?      

Trump looking at executive action on healthcare

North Korea can hit most of US

ECB’s Weidmann – EZ needs a reform

Oil popped over USD 50 on high fuel demand and HF short covering

While supply still high

Equities

Shell putting a financial hand in solar firm Sunseap Group

BNP Paribas interested in Strutt & Parker

Brexit to increase the needs for capital by 30% and costs by 4% for banks

Trump taking on insurers after Obamacare repeal vote failed again

LabCorp eyeing Chiltern (USD 1.2 bln) to expand oncology activities

Tesla down on “manufacturing hell” as Elon Musk commented the production of Model 3

That may last 6 months until the cash burn ends and company will start to make profits

China asked Anbang Insurance Group (huge insurer) to sell its overseas assets and bring cash home

A sign of troubles coming… More here & here

Earnings

Europe experiencing the strongest earnings season since 2017 with EBITDA at record highs

US doing well too witnessing sales and EPS acceleration

Apple – market is expecting an increase in revenue on the back of higher sales of its smartphones while checking also on a new release if iPhone that may be delayed until Oct

Pfizer – to report higher earnings supported by breast cancer treatment sales. The drag on earnings might be (as of other peers too, the patent expirations)

FireEye, Devon Energy, Under Armour

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% vs 2.28% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.54% vs 0.54% yesterday

EURUSD

Broad weakness pushed EURUSD higher

Higher EZ inflation making market believe in a hawkish ECB

But looking at Fed not hiking this year again

Support 1.1690 (10 DMA), 1.1785 (200 WMA) – checking what’s going on there

Resistance 1.1200 more psychological of nature

USDJPY

Heavy on USD weakness

Bids at 110.00 (around option barrier)

Also some options (USD 1 bln) expiring around this level

Speculators may be hunting stops below 110.00

Resistance 110.97 (61.8% Fibo)

Support 110.14 (76.4% Fibo)

Data/events

Wed

Fed’s Mester (1600 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1930 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs – 173k exp

Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole

Draghi’s show up highly expected in the light of potential tapering

Any clues on EUR 60 bln monthly purchase being taken down o 40…or?

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

June 5, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening higher

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Bahrain cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar over support of Iran (Islamic Brotherhood and Hamas)

Pushing oil more than 1% higher

All of that coming after Trump’s visit and security threats (banning travellers or notebooks on the planes)

Russia sees oil down to USD 40

UK – attacks and risk of no majority government increasing

It may weight on GBP as UK heads towards weaker government mandate

ECB’s Visco – Italy down most in 10 years

High debt because of low growth but still the average Italian household is wealthier the German one

Fed on track for June hike after weaker Friday’s NFPs but further hikes in question

Unless we see a pick up in inflation and Trump coming with positive fiscal news

Trump to come up with Dodd Frank revamp on Tuesday

But the reality is he doesn’t have enough votes in Congress to push it through

Equities

Investindustrial and Alibaba likely to submit a join bid for The Body Shop from L’Oreal

Blackstone selling Logicor to China Investment Corp (EUR 12.25 bln)

KKR raised USD 9.3 bln in new Asia buyout fund

Exxon misleadig about climate change impact of its business

Pfizer to hike prices of some drugs in US by 20%

Goldman Sachs eying to trade Saudis stocks

Home Capital to face regulators on June 26

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.17%% (2.16% critical level, on Friday closed below 200 DMA)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.27%

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1284, 1.1300 (big level), 1.1355/65and 1.14/15/1600 range

Should see lots of hesitation ahead of 1.1300

Support at 1.1213 (10 DMA), 1.1200 and 1.1179 (23.6% Fibo)

New trading range 1.1000-1.1500 ?

Morgan Stanley switching from end year 0.97 level for EURUSD to 1.1800

On strong data, political stability, valuations and equity market inflows

A very nice switch…

USDJPY

US yields taking the cross lower

Support at 200 DMA at 110.34, 110.10 (Ichimoku) and 109.60 (76.4% Fibo)

Bids sitting ahead of 110.00, with stops below

Resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo), heavy level

New trading range 108.00-112.00 ?

GBPJPY - With GBP under pressure and strong JPY double whammy  possible here... looking for lower levels

AUDJPY - Are bears controlling the market?

Weekly Commodity: Oil and Sugar under pressure, Grains in a vacuum Link 

Upcoming Data/Events

June 8 – ECB meeting – Draghi being alone but inflation data from US and JP suggesting ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

ECB likely to adjust the risk to economy wording but no change to asset purchases

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 8 - Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – Jun hike probability at 95%, Sep at 28% and Dec at 40%. After Friday’s NFPs Sep hike may be skipped if data doesn’t come strong.

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More