Mar 8, 2018 - Market Update (ECB bit hawkish, tomorrow's US NFPs' earnings bit weaker can push EURUSD above 1.2500; EURUSD weekly - a funny joke 1998-2000; Fed- 5 hikes in 2018?; S&P 500 still a bit rich but reasonably attractive; USD and US deficit correlating as before dot.com bubble; USD decline impacting reserve currency status; Aramco IPO going against OPEC?)

Short recap

Asia in green after strong US session yesterday

On Trump softer on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood

Europe opening flat to higher

ECB today likely to confirm a gradual shift

But still not major change in wording

Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ economy

Fed 4 hikes warranted, eventually 5 in 2018 according to DB Securities

Trump’s tariffs plan not signed yet (today?)

Canada & Mexico exempt temporarily

11 members to sign TPP (US withdrew from the deal)

Beige Book – prices rising, employment up moderately

Equities

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance getting stronger

Some Goldman Sachs’ employees on notice to move to Frankfurt amid Brexit uncertainty

IKEA to keep up investments

Boeing – tariffs unlikely to impact plane prices but can hurt sales strongly

General Electric still under pressure, valued at USD 125 bln (while in Jan 2018 at USD 580 bln)

S&P 500 still a bit rich after recent correction

But at reasonable to attractive levels based on P/B, P/E or dividend yield relative to 10-yr Trys yield (2.88%)

Improving earnings expectations and excess capital being returned to shareholders are supportive as well

Huge risks is coming from US economy bleeding from trade/tariffs war

Tech, financials, industrial doing the best

S&P 500

Strong resistance around 2800 level (high + 76.4% Fibo at 2795)

Resistance 2744 (61.8% Fibo), 2742 (50 DMA) and 2735

Support 2703 (50.0% Fibo), 2677 (100 DMA), 2663 (38.2% Fibo) and 2671

Source: Saxo Bank

DAX

Strong resistance around 12 745

Resistance 12 275 (76.4% Fibo & 10 DMA), 12 528 (61.8% Fibo)

Strong support 11 866

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.88% vs 2.86% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.66% vs 0.68% yesterday

Interest rates are moving for the right reasons

This chart warns that the 30-year downtrend in interest rates may be over  link

USD following the US deficits again (budget and trade balance)

Remember the end of dot.com bubble? Quite similar….

How Corporate Debt Confirms The “Everything Bubble”  link

EURUSD

Resistance is fairly in place around 1.2555

Today a bit of sense of hawkishness from ECB and…

…tomorrow bit of weakness in earnings can push EUR above 1.2500

USD reaction to US tariffs will show further direction

Support 1.2318 (23.6% Fibo & 10 DMA), 1.2172 (38.2% Fibo), 1.2268 (10 DMA)

Weekly – anyone having fun with this chart?

Source: Saxo Bank

…but a Dollar decline rekindles reserve currency worries  link

Crude oil

Is Aramco share sale distorting OPEC policy?  link

OPEC cuts played well so far but the cost is losing market share to US shale

U.S. Oil Output Set to Average 10.7 Million Barrels a Day in 2018, Highest on Record  link

2018 oil output forecast to average 10.7 million barrels a day

Production expected to top 11 million barrels a day in October

Cryptos

SEC urging cryptocurrency exchanges to register

Data/events

ECB

Fri

BoJ meeting

US NFPs

Mar 12/13 – US bond auctions (10-/30- yr maturities)

Mar 21 – FOMC meeting (1 hike expected (market pricing at 86%) and 3 more in 2018 to be announced)

Mar 23 – US Fed gov spending deadline

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 15, 2017 - Market Update (Xi to visit NoKo one day, Mohammed El-Erian a new Fed vice-chair?, Stocks not comfortable with no new catalyst, GE story, Airbus – a new USD 40 bln order?, Volkswagen and police/tax authorities again, Loxo partnering with Bayer, US yield curve flattening despite 2-yr yield hitting a 9-yr high, EURUSD - forget about H&S, looking at 1.1900, USDJPY to dip below 112.00)

Short recap

Asia in red but BoJ active in ETF buying

Europe opening lower

Special envoy from China heading to NoKo on Nov 17

Central bankers talking about an end of easy money

Mohammed El-Erian a new Fed vice-chair?

Risk bubbles rising across EMs:

Military taking over in Zimbabwe, where is Mugabe?

Venezuela defaulting, South Africa to be downgraded

Equities

Stocks not comfortable with no new catalyst, GE story

And getting nervous about upcoming Fed tightening

Airbus – a new USD 40 bln order for 400 planes coming?

Volkswagen having issues with police and tax authorities

Loxo Oncology entering into collaboration with Bayer (USD 1.6 bln)

Biotech firms focusing on using bacteria in cancer research

Bombardier signing a USD 1.1 bln deal with EgyptAir

Earnings

Cisco – expecting decline in revenue from traditional products

Target

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36%

2-yr Notes touched a 9-yr high but the yield curve keeps flattening

10-yr Bund yield at 0.39%

EURUSD

Huge H&S reversal is over after breaking 1.1700

Decisive break of 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1649 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Also broke 1.1736 (100 DMA) 1.1785 (50 DMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo)

Next resistance Oct highs and 1.1886 (61.8% Fibo)

 Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Resistance at 113.65 (10 DMA), 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo),

Support at 112.47 (50 DMA)

Closing below 23.6% Fibo will expose 111.90 (38.2% Fibo), 111.76 (200 DMA) and 111.72 (100 DMA)

Data/events

EU General Affairs Council meeting

Fed’s Evans (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (2110 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 2, 2017 - Market Update (Catalan 90% vote, Johnson-May old friends, DAX attacking 12 954 on weaker EUR, 10-yr Trys yield bullish close, Global equity funds enjoying the money in rally)

Short recap

Asian up

Europe opening higher

Catalonian 90% vote for independence

Madrid and police not comfortable with it

Declaration of independence likely to come in 48 hours

Boris Johnson sees Theresa May gone within the year (friends…)

Boeing-Bombardier dispute a proof of UK-US Trump kind of preferential partnership

Warsh the new Fed’s head after meeting with Trump

Used to be a Fed gov (2006/11) but resigned over disagreement over bond buying

Other candidates might be: Yellen, Cohn, Powell, Hubbard

ECB close to tapering? What about the business and consumer confidence hitting multiyear highs…

Equities

Volkswagen making up the diesel scandal bill up to USD 30 bln

Global Logistic Properties buying Gazeley (USD 2.8 bln) to enter EU as a lucrative market

Germany eying to buy warplanes from Boeing

Bombardier goes short against Boeing but seals USD 1.7 bln deal with SpiceJet from India to sell 50 planes

Global equity funds still growing in size as investor poor money in

Cryptocurrency exchanges still facing the security and fraud issues

DAX to benefit from weaker EUR, next stop 12 954 or higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.58% vs 2.58% on Friday – had a bullish close on Friday posting outside month/monthly reversal

10-yr Bund yield at 1.67% vs 1.07% on Friday

Spanish bonds - Catalan vote impact – we need to see market reaction first

As we balance between the independence and strong economy

COT report as of Tue last week

USD: Leveraged funds net sellers

Shorts at the highest level since May 2014

EUR: Largest net buying

Longs at 88k vs 62k previously

GBP: First net longs since Oct 2015

Longs 5k vs shorts 10k previously

EURUSD

Gapped lower but Catalan vote to have a short-lived impact

Unless we see a deep constitutional crisis in Spain

Support at 1.1762 (Ichimoku) 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1708 (200 WMA)

Resistance at 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1844 (50 DMA)

USDJPY

Worth of watching as DXY is getting some bullish signs

And Trump is moving with tax reform

Cross posted also a bullish monthly reversal on Friday

And trades above the descending trend line)

What may open the door towards 114.36-50 range (recent highs)

Or even 118.60/65 if we seen the Trump trade back

Resistance at 113.25

Support at 111.85 (23.6% Fibo), 112.28 (10 DMA)

Gold

Catalan vote had no major impact

Other geopolitical risks: NoKo, Kurdistan-Turkey, Iraq, Iran

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Support at 1272 (100 DMA), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/events

ECB’s Linde (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1015 & 1300 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1800 GMT)

Oct 1-4 – UK’s Tory party meeting

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Tue

Fed’s Powell

Thu

ECB Minutes

Fed’s Dudley

Fed’s Powell

Fed’s Williams

Fed’s Harker

Fri

US NFPs – 98k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev

Fed’s Bullard

Fed’s Kaplan

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 21, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC - market not a strong believer of Fed talk, EURUSD sitting at strong support 1.1870/80, Gold at crossroad between 1290-1300, UniCredit to buy Commerzbank, Apple slowing, Huawei, Oppo, Samsung speeding up, EU to redo taxation of digital world)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening higher

EU-CA free trade deal in effect starting today

EU to redo taxes on digital companies

Goldman Sachs expect USD 1 trln tax cuts (0.4% of GDP) over 10 yrs

FOMC – no change, rates 1.00-1.25%

Taper starting in Oct to get cushion for next crisis

Expecting 1 more hike this year, 3 hikes next year

Market pricing Dec hike at 66% vs pre-FOMC 46%

But market still not a strong believer in Dec hike yet

Fischer out, Yellen likely out next year want to make a point

Low inflation transitory but with question mark

BoJ – no policy change

Short term rates target at -0.1%

10-yr JGB yield target at 0%

Bond buying at JPY 80 trln annually

Who holds the most assets?

Fed 23% of GDP – on the way to trim

ECB 40% of GDP – Draghi was late to the QE party but did well

BoJ 60% of GDP – no signs of slowing…

Equities

Delphi & BlackBerry to work on self-driving cars software

Google eying HTC Corp (USD 1.1 bln)

UniCredit interested in merging with Commerzbank

New Apple watch experiencing connectivity issue

Apple slowing in innovation while Chinese rivals (Huawei & Oppo) growing on design and price

Amazon screening website for ingredients used to make bombs

Something different... Amazon is the New Tech Crash  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

EURUSD

Completed bearish outside day

Sitting slightly above the strong support zone 1.1870/80

Post-FOMC flows to show direction today

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Then 1.1837, 1.1823, 1.1808 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

If we see a consolidation 1.1600/1.1500 may be a target

Resistance at 1.1943 (10 DMA), 1.1966 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Fed moving, BoJ on hold makes bearish tone for JPY

Resistance around 112.60-70, stops above up to 113.00

Then 113.14 (23.6% Fibo)

Support found from 112.20 lower with bids starting at this level

112.31 (38.2% Fibo), 112.18 (200 DMA), descending trendline

Gold

USD and higher yields putting pressure

Rocket man and Barking dog providing support

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels

Data/events

ECB General Council meeting

ECB’s Praet (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1330 GMT)

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 15, 2017 - Market Update (US inflation surprise making Dec Fed hike a 50/50 game, Weidmann like Draghi...eyeing his job?, Oil above USD 50 a stability for US shale, GBPUSD up to 1.3500, but weak USD can push it to 1.4000 despite heavy short specs, Trump trade making US small caps rally)

Short recap

Asian in red on NoKo playing with fire again but market corrected quickly

Europe opening mixed

ECB’s Weidmann out with comments like Draghi…getting ready for his job?

Aug US inflation at 1.9%, core 1.7%, higher than expected

Bringing Dec Fed hike to 50/50 probability

But economists predict Fed pausing…

Equities

Rupert Murdoch’s takeover of Sky not a done deal yet

Nestle taking over Blue Bottle Coffee

Low commodity prices make CNOOC stop a feasibility study of a LNG terminal in BC

Oil price above USD 50 bringing stability to US shale

Upcoming Trump trade shadow and tax deal making US small caps rally

France expects other EU members to join the tax fight against online companies like Amazon, Google

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18% vs 2.19% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% vs 0.40% yesterday

GBPUSD

BoE surprisingly very hawkish yesterday, opening the door to 1.3500

If USD takes a hit after today’s retail sales, can march higher towards 1.4000

Despite heavy short specs betting on Brexit mess

Platina

In case of risk off mood, can do much better than gold

As it trades at huge discount to it

Data/events

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0815 GMT)

Sep 19-20 FOMC – not expecting anything special

Fed is on the way to start USD 10 bln tapering as of Oct 1

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 16, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia flat

Europe opening higher

BoJ no change, upgrading consumption, domestic and global growth

To keep support as inflation is far from 2%

Greece getting EUR 8.5 bln loan

What about central banks raising the inflation targets to 3-4% range instead of 2% one?

Would it create the psychological pressure on households and corporates to spend/invest more?

Fed ok with hikes despite lower inflation pressures and job market is still strengthening

As financial markets conditions constantly improving since Mar 2016

Equities

US retailers suffer with almost 300 bankruptcies this year

US techs fall out stopped again around 5650 area for NASDAQ

Seems like correction without any panic is welcome

Nike to cut jobs and streamline offering

Apple suffering the most from techs selloff

Facebook fighting terrorism via removing content

Uber looking at trucks

BHP with new Chairman

Nestle likely to sell US business of Butterfinger and BabyRuth

BP and Reliance Industries to take on gas production in India (USD 6 bln)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.17%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%

EURUSD

Support at 1.1120 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Digesting FOMC

While BoJ seems off the interest of markets

Resistance at 111.24 (50.0% Fibo), then 111.37 and 112.00 Ichimoku

100 DMA at 111.88

Support at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.58 (200 DMA)

Descending trendline around 111.00

Closing today above 110.80 level would be a bullish outside week signal

With potential to look at 114.36 after breaking 111.24 level

DXY

Close to resistance at 97.62, then 97.85 (50.0% Fibo)

And descending trendline around 97.98

Gold

Under pressure post-FOMC

Expecting a wait-and-see game, as there is still decent physical demand due to geopolitical risks

While investors need to assess upcoming US data to get more comfortable with Fed’s hawkish tilt

Support at 100 DMA at 1247, 1245 (61.8% Fibo), 200 DMA at 1237 and 1234 (76.4% Fibo)

Resistance at 1255 (50.0%)

Upcoming Data/Events

Fed’s Kaplan (1645 GMT)

Sunday – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Monday – Brexit talks starting ?

Thursday – EU Summit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 31, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up on better steel industry performance that pushed China factory activity higher

Europe opening mixed

Trump's head of communication is leaving – who knows why?

Wouldn’t be better if Trump has left and all the other staff members stay? The problem is solved then…

USDCNH down as overnight funding rising

EU Commission proposing EMU gov debt securitization (thus packaging debt of different countries together)

After GE refused the idea of Eurobonds

Equities

Vivendi closer to controlling Telecom Italia on EU antitrust approval

Struggling IT banks Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca – one of the options is to close them if no state aid solution is agreed on

LSE buying bond data and index business from Citi (USD 685 mln)

Amazon above USD 1000 watermark to attract more buyers

As analyst expect another 10% push higher on average

Gilead Sciences and GlaxoSmithKline go tough in HIV drugs

Goldman Sachs bought USD 2.8 bln bonds of Petroleos de Venezuela bonds at discount

BlackRock CEO – US financial markets “probably fully priced in” and Q2 earnings could dissappoint

Few words on stocks…

Some argue that stock prices are too high but after considering the slow pace of interest rates rise, they are reasonable for the time being. Of course, staying vigilant is important but some sectors like mining or Japanese equities (trading at 20% discount to US peers) may be of interest. Earnings are solid, still favorable to be investing in stocks based on earnings performance, few unknowns on the horizon like North Korea, Trump, China growth or possible snap elections in Italy as we head to quiet summer period.

So what’s next? Well, the ECB’s possible wording adjustment in June and then Fed’s 3^rd rate hike and taper in H2.

HP to report the slide in earnings amid the push towards more focussed strategy and data center hardware business

Palo Alto Networks to report lower profit despite fast-growing cyber security industry. In case of the company, the competition bites.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.22%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%

Brainard dovish on soft inflation (thus pushing Trys yields lower) but expecting rate hike pretty soon

EURUSD

Month end flows likely visible

Closing below 1.1140/55 range the 1.1000 is in sight

As the next likely 1.0840

1.1000 – growing in importance

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo Nov/Jan)

Expiring options around 1.1150 level, towards 1.1200 and large at 1.1250

USDJPY

Resistance at 111.00

Next 50 DMA at 111.21 and 50% Fibo at 111.24

200 DMA at 110.20 – a pretty strong support right above 110.00 level

GBPUSD

Polls changing the game and potentially election outcome for May

As she may not be able to form the government alone what in turn would weaken UK’s negotiation position in Brexit talks

1.2775 is the next to watch, followed by 200/100 DMA at 1.2586/1.2573 levels

Data

EZ: Flash CPI

Core CPI should move back close to 0.8% level (market expectation 1.0%) vs 1.2% prior

CPI expected at 1.5% vs 1.9% prior

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (tentative)

Beige Book

ECB’s Coeure (0720 GMT), Lautenschlaeger (1230 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1200 GMT), Williams (2330 GMT)

Thu

ECB’s Villeroy

Fed’s Powell

Fri

US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior

Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior

Fed’s Harker

EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)

June 8 – ECB meeting – Draghi being alone but inflation data from US and JP suggesting ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – hike probability was at 89% after yesterday’s data. If data supportive, we may see one hike in June, then in Sept followed by balance sheet reduction announcement in Dec

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 29, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher but correcting

US & UK closed today on account of public holidays, some Asian countries as well

N. Korea playing with fire again

ZAR – Zuma still alive

Europe on its won after G7 and Merkel/Trump meeting

Tensions between US & EU mounting, nothing to change in the near term

Thank you Mr President for your kind EU/NATO wake up call

US to ban laptops from all flights in/out to US

US facing a shortage of houses while demand stays steady

What in turn will likely push prices higher in the years to come

Fed’s Williams – don’t want to disrupt the markets, medium term inflation trend “pretty favourable”

Equities

British Airways still experiencing issues with computer system

Investment conference in NY – may have some headlines on Q2 expectations from financials

Gazprom meeting with EU antitrust chief

Bombardier with first CS300 deliveries

US techs pushing US gov to increase privacy protection

Qualcomm to pay BlackBerry USD 940 mln in royalties

Chinese real estate companies flying high…may be too high…

Aramco – after LSE, NYSE it is now turn for Canadian TSE to lure IPO listing relying on its natural resources expertize

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%

Quiet trading ahead of ECB and Fed June meetings

GE/EZ inflation data to show whether ECB is right with staying cautious on inflation ahead of June 8 meeting

Italy – markets will start to focus on Italy at some point

As EZ grows but Italy doesn’t

Japanese insurers like US bonds more over European papers (staying cautious)

They usually lend them to banks to earn extra income

EURUSD

1.1160 still acting as a support

1.1200 heavy as a resistance

1.1314 (76.4% Fibo)

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo)

Large option EUR 2.7 bln with strike 1.1100 expiring tomorrow

May point lower as we had an inverted hammer on weekly chart

And DXY found support above 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Offers around 111.50

50 DMA at 111.23 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

EURAUD 

Looking to buy pullbacks as favorite scenario for now...

Weekly Commodity - Full article link

Tough week for commodities, crude, industrial metals, soybeans down, corn and wheat traders still hesitant

Data

ECB’s Nowotny (0715 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1300 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann

Tue

GE: Flash CPI

US: PCE m/m expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% previous; y/y was 1.6% previously

Fed’s Brainard

Wed

EZ: Flash CPI – should move back to 0.8% level from 1.2% prior

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

Beige Book

ECB’s Coeure, Lautenschlaeger

Fed’s Kaplan, Williams

Thu

ECB’s Villeroy

Fed’s Powell

Fri

US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior

Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior

Fed’s Harker

EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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May 26, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia down as OPEC disappointed the market by not delivering what traders hoped for

Cut extended for 9 and not 12 months, expected deeper cuts

Oil was down 5% and still heavy today

Europe opening lower

Risk off continues on OPEC, lower yields and dovish Bullard (inflation worrisome, Fed aggressive)

Looking forward to balance sheet reduction in H2

Trump’s son-in-law who is a part of his senior advisers team is under FBI investigation over Russia

USD 20 bln Blackstone-Saudis deal underlies how important Blackstone is for Kushner’s family

As they borrowed from the company few hundred mlns and company worked on their NY mansion

Moody’s - China not able to curb the debt, risk of another downgrade

China to change Yuan fixing formula to adjust for lower volatility

China not to pursue a competitive devaluation

UK consumers hit by rising prices

UK’s May falling in polls, GBP down

Equities

Full “bail in” talk of regional banks Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca

Denied by officials

GM facing a lawsuit over emissions

Ford behind GM in new models

Canadian banks don’t see the threat to their business from fallout of Home Capital

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.36%

Fed funds rate vs EURUSD  link

EURUSD

Offers around 1.1250-60

Still lots of bid below

1.1314 (76.4% Fibo)

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Bids towards 111.50, more towards 111.00 – range with heavy option expiries as well

Offers may be present going to 112.00

50 DMA at 111.25 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

Iron ore

Inventories highest since 2004 (136 mln tonnes)

Important support 450

Data,

G7 meeting (growth, employment, security)

ECB’s Coeure (2000 GMT)

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 23, 2017 - How is June Fed hike priced in?

Just a brief update among all the Trump related Russian mess...

Fed hike - currently June hike priced at 78% and next one at 43%. Meaning, the market is pricing 2 more hikes this yr at 43% probability.

Fed likely to pause after June.

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 12, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly higher

Europe opening mixed

BoJ is passionate about 2% inflation in 2018

Trade barriers a dead end – comments from Fed’s Dudley

Fed officially commenting on Trump policies

US financial conditions keep easing, thus giving a green light to Fed for June rate hike

Fed just proved that it is very closely watching politics

As they moved their Nov meeting by one day from Tue/Wed to Wed/Thu (Nov 7/8)

Due to mid-term elections on Tue Nov 6

PBOC injected medium term liquidity to support the economy

While keeps tight grip on short term lending to curb speculations

UK politicians still not telling all to British public

May is getting ready for a hard Brexit

Equities

Uber is a transport service and not an app

What is a huge challenge with legal/licensing consequences for Uber in EU market

Rosneft having hard time to acquire Essar Oil (USD 12.9 bln) as company's creditors have the say

Vivendi to merge with Havas

Barclays’ investment bank arm looking to hire up to 100 new bankers as a part of reorganization

Wells Fargo very active in cost cutting but outlook stays not that convincing

Goldman Sachs launching a new dark pool for trading stocks

The private trading venue will be run by Nasdaq

Macy’s and Kohl’s weak earnings proving that the sector is struggling big times with online competition

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.38%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.43%

DXY – a bit mixed yesterday

But well above 200 DMA (99.17)

Support also at 99.26 (61.8% Fibo)

Rising trendline acting as a resistance now

Next is 101.00 (76.4% Fibo)

EURUSD

As yesterday the 1.0850 is pivotal

Followed by the 1.0825/30 area (21 & 200 DMA) – if broken, likely to see more downside

1^st round FR election gap is the next to watch

USDJPY

Next 115.00/50 and 118.60 highs may be in focus

Support at 113.76 (76.4% Fibo), 113.00 (100 DMA) and 113.09 (10 DMA)

Gold

Resistance at 1228 (100 DMA), 1230 (50% Fibo) and 1255 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 1204 (38.2% Fibo)

Upcoming

US: CPI

Core CPI m/m 0.2% exp vs -0.1% prior

Core CPI y/y 2.0% exp vs 2.0% prior

CPI m/m 0.2% exp vs -0.3% prior

CPI y/y 2.3% exp vs 2.4% prior

US : Retail sales

US : University of Michigan Index

Fed's Evans speaking 1300 GMT

Fed’s Harker speaking 1630 GMT

G7 Fin Mins & Central bankers meeting

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike above 90%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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