Nov 15, 2017 - Market Update (Xi to visit NoKo one day, Mohammed El-Erian a new Fed vice-chair?, Stocks not comfortable with no new catalyst, GE story, Airbus – a new USD 40 bln order?, Volkswagen and police/tax authorities again, Loxo partnering with Bayer, US yield curve flattening despite 2-yr yield hitting a 9-yr high, EURUSD - forget about H&S, looking at 1.1900, USDJPY to dip below 112.00)

Short recap

Asia in red but BoJ active in ETF buying

Europe opening lower

Special envoy from China heading to NoKo on Nov 17

Central bankers talking about an end of easy money

Mohammed El-Erian a new Fed vice-chair?

Risk bubbles rising across EMs:

Military taking over in Zimbabwe, where is Mugabe?

Venezuela defaulting, South Africa to be downgraded

Equities

Stocks not comfortable with no new catalyst, GE story

And getting nervous about upcoming Fed tightening

Airbus – a new USD 40 bln order for 400 planes coming?

Volkswagen having issues with police and tax authorities

Loxo Oncology entering into collaboration with Bayer (USD 1.6 bln)

Biotech firms focusing on using bacteria in cancer research

Bombardier signing a USD 1.1 bln deal with EgyptAir

Earnings

Cisco – expecting decline in revenue from traditional products

Target

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36%

2-yr Notes touched a 9-yr high but the yield curve keeps flattening

10-yr Bund yield at 0.39%

EURUSD

Huge H&S reversal is over after breaking 1.1700

Decisive break of 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1649 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Also broke 1.1736 (100 DMA) 1.1785 (50 DMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo)

Next resistance Oct highs and 1.1886 (61.8% Fibo)

 Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Resistance at 113.65 (10 DMA), 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo),

Support at 112.47 (50 DMA)

Closing below 23.6% Fibo will expose 111.90 (38.2% Fibo), 111.76 (200 DMA) and 111.72 (100 DMA)

Data/events

EU General Affairs Council meeting

Fed’s Evans (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (2110 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 26, 2017 - Market Update (ECB day today but should they do anything?, Turkish CB in the spotlight too, EURUSD range 1.1660-1.1860/1.1900+, Airbus-Bombardier deal a China story?, Brazil yields up on elections risk, VIX to loo for too long - recall the Aug 2015 China blow...)

Short recap

Asia flat

Europe opening flat

China going for USD denominated bonds again (first issue from 2004)

ECB day today - lots of uncertainties around QE cut back (low inflation, strong EUR vs growing economy)

Still not clear whether ECB should do it today or not

A Turkish Central Bank announcement important today

As there are speculations about Germany (EU) to cut funding for Turkey

Equities

GaxoSmithKline likely to boost their consumer health business via acquisitions

Airbus deal with Bombardier might have had more to do

With technology and production shift to China than with Boeing

As some Chinese investors were looking at Bombardier as well

Earnings

Microsoft – expecting higher revenue on cloud business

Alphabet – expecting higher revenue on mobile, YouTube, Play Store and cloud

Intel – to benefit from stable PC market and very good growth from data centers

Amazon.com – retail and cloud should help while new markets and acquisitions weight

Ford – question is how the weak sales in Europe and Chine effect the results

Planning to cut USD 14 bln and focus more trucks and electric/hybrid cars

Newmont Mining – market is looking at higher revenue on more effective production of gold

Teck Resources – expecting a nice surprise on higher prices of coal, zinc and cooper

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.43%, above technical 2.40% level

10-yr Bund yield at 0.48%

Brazil – the yields highlight upcoming volatility before next year’s presidential elections

Stocks at records highs, BRL is stable but investors are getting nervous whether new president

Will keep up with reform process

VIX

What a nice ride for all of those who bet on falling risk

But…things may change, be aware of that

As the Chinese blow out from Aug 2015 shows

What about VIX spiking again 96% ?

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

Easy hawkish surprise but difficult to sell the market dovish view

Draghi to have a hard time to talk down EUR based on ongoing price action despite higher US yields

Saw some short covering going to ECB & because of new question marks appeared around US tax reform

Markets expect dovish taper

See range of 1.1660-1.1860/1.1900+

Resistance at 1.1850 (50 DMA), 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1.1793 (10 DMA), 1.1783 (200 HMA), 1.1750/60, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Selling interest above 114.00

Huge expiring options with strikes 113.50-80 and 114.50/115.00

Bids a 113.50, more towards 113.00 with stops below

Support at 112.99 (10 DMA)

Trading around descending trendline after getting close to recent high at 114.50 from July

Gold

Taylor or Powell ? Taylor can make a hit on gold

As he favours quicker rate hikes and return back to normal

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1285 (10 DMA)

Support at 1275 (100 DMA)

Data/events

ECB (1145 & 1230 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1430 GMT)

Fri

ECB’s Praet (0715 GMT)

Trump announcing a new Fed chair

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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July 28, 2017 - Market Update (Bad day for Trump - no Russia sanctions, no VAT, no BAT, no Obamacare repeal, EURUSD hitting strong multiyear resistance zone, USDJPY played by expiring options today, US GDP to surprise, NASDAQ down on rotation out of Techs, Apollo rising USD 25 bln)

Short recap

Asia lower on risk off

Europe opening

Mnuchin to support steps not tough talk against FX manipulators

As it hasn’t been working for years

Senate rejected new sanctions against Russia

Not even watered down Obamacare repeal bill can pass through Senate

Another huge blow to Trump after no VAT and BAT implementation

Those two got rejected due to the need to overhaul the whole tax system in US

Equities

NASDAQ down on rotation out of Techs

Amazon hit by cost jumping

UBS cautious despite good wealth management business

Credit Suisse – profit jumps

Apollo’s new private equity fund raised USD 25 bln for investments in North America and Western Europe

Airbus not happy with delays caused by Pratt & Whitney production

Cameco settled with IRS at a fraction of original claim but heavy fight with CRA is waiting

Any correction in stocks to be triggered by upcoming tapering? The stock markets were moving higher hand in hand with QEs all around the world. What’s next?

Few facts:

Had a nice bull market rolling over the years

Market multiples above historical levels

Equities vs fixed income yield differentials are low

M&A activity hitting high

Upcoming tapering

Extremely low volatility will not last

Trump administration not able to deliver

Earnings

Earnings season so far good on weaker USD

Merck, AbbVie – to be watched as competition is rising

Exxon Mobil, Chevron – market expecting a profit print

Bombardier – cash flow, CSeries deliveries and potential joint venture with Siemens to be questioned

Baker Hughes, Barclays, Goodyear, American Airlines

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% up from 2.28% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.53% down from 0.55% yesterday

EURUSD

Down from yesterday on USD buying

Underlying tone stays pro-EUR, US GDP in watch

Support of note 1.1623/21 (10 DMA/23.6% Fibo), 1.1615, then 1.1580

100/200 HMA may also see some buying

Resistance at 1.1750, 1. 1776 (high), 1.1794 (200 WMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Sitting on 111.00 with likely dip demand around 110.80

Option expiries at 110.80 (USD 1.2 bln), 111.00 (USD 1.4 bln)

Likely to stay within the sight of expiry levels unless US GDP moves the market heavily

Lots of bids at 110.00

Gold

Durable goods orders and higher USD put pressure on gold yesterday

Traders see Fed to announce taper in Sep

Resistance at 1261 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 125 (50.0% Fibo)

10/50/100 DMAs converge to 1250 level

Data/events

US Q2 GDP +2.6% exp vs 1.4% previous

Some banks revised up expectations on the back of yesterday's much better Durable goods orders

Fed’s Kashkari (1720 GMT)

Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC 

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 29, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher but correcting

US & UK closed today on account of public holidays, some Asian countries as well

N. Korea playing with fire again

ZAR – Zuma still alive

Europe on its won after G7 and Merkel/Trump meeting

Tensions between US & EU mounting, nothing to change in the near term

Thank you Mr President for your kind EU/NATO wake up call

US to ban laptops from all flights in/out to US

US facing a shortage of houses while demand stays steady

What in turn will likely push prices higher in the years to come

Fed’s Williams – don’t want to disrupt the markets, medium term inflation trend “pretty favourable”

Equities

British Airways still experiencing issues with computer system

Investment conference in NY – may have some headlines on Q2 expectations from financials

Gazprom meeting with EU antitrust chief

Bombardier with first CS300 deliveries

US techs pushing US gov to increase privacy protection

Qualcomm to pay BlackBerry USD 940 mln in royalties

Chinese real estate companies flying high…may be too high…

Aramco – after LSE, NYSE it is now turn for Canadian TSE to lure IPO listing relying on its natural resources expertize

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%

Quiet trading ahead of ECB and Fed June meetings

GE/EZ inflation data to show whether ECB is right with staying cautious on inflation ahead of June 8 meeting

Italy – markets will start to focus on Italy at some point

As EZ grows but Italy doesn’t

Japanese insurers like US bonds more over European papers (staying cautious)

They usually lend them to banks to earn extra income

EURUSD

1.1160 still acting as a support

1.1200 heavy as a resistance

1.1314 (76.4% Fibo)

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo)

Large option EUR 2.7 bln with strike 1.1100 expiring tomorrow

May point lower as we had an inverted hammer on weekly chart

And DXY found support above 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Offers around 111.50

50 DMA at 111.23 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

EURAUD 

Looking to buy pullbacks as favorite scenario for now...

Weekly Commodity - Full article link

Tough week for commodities, crude, industrial metals, soybeans down, corn and wheat traders still hesitant

Data

ECB’s Nowotny (0715 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1300 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann

Tue

GE: Flash CPI

US: PCE m/m expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% previous; y/y was 1.6% previously

Fed’s Brainard

Wed

EZ: Flash CPI – should move back to 0.8% level from 1.2% prior

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

Beige Book

ECB’s Coeure, Lautenschlaeger

Fed’s Kaplan, Williams

Thu

ECB’s Villeroy

Fed’s Powell

Fri

US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior

Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior

Fed’s Harker

EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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May 23, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Europe opening higher

GBP volatile on Manchester bomb attack

Merkel’s comments about weak EUR were more preparation ahead of today’s visit of Trump

As well as preparation for Sep elections as Germans like strong EUR (DEM) while don’t mind to kick a bit ECB

Trump acting as a mediator Muslim states, Israel and Iran

Trump’s budget – to cut gov spending like healthcare and social programs (USD 3.6 trln over 10 yrs)

Trump still caught in Russian scandal

Russian cyber attacks via Android targeted banks

Equities

Boeing taking on Bombardier on experience from Airbus

Swiss watch makers facing declines in sales

Noble down 28%, halted, downgrade and facing bankruptcy

M&As hitting new highs between US and EU companies

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.23%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.37%

Greek debt relief not yet but likely going to July payment on IMF request

Would face German pre-election opposition

Greek 2-yr yield to 5.25% from around 9.50% in Feb

DXY staying very weak

EURUSD

Yesterday’s/overnight move higher likely coming from new demand and short covering, Merkel and more bullish view of EZ assets

Overall EURUSD is well overdone

Critical 1.1300 may attract speculators

But EURUSD may even check the levels like 1.1314 (76.4% Fibo of May 2016-Jan 2017 move)

USDJPY

Not much volatility overnight after initial JPY strength on Manchester attack

Bids seem sitting below 111.00

Offers may be about 111.35

55 DMA at 111.34 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as resistance

Gold daily

Resitance 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Support 1255 (61.8% Fibo)

Crude oil

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting on Thursday

9-month cut extension already priced in

Trump’s proposal to sell half of strategic reserves (344 mln barrels)

What would add daily 100k barrels of new oil over the next 10 years

Upcoming

Last day of Eurogroup meeting

Fed’s Kashkari speaking (1300 GMT)

Hammond, Schauble, Guindos speaking (1430 GMT)

ECB’ Coeure speaking (1500 GMT)

Fed’s Harker speaking (2100 GMT)

Wed – FOMC Minutes

Thu – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Fri – G7 meeting

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (rescheduled)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 19, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed on strong US data but political turmoil

Europe opening higher

Risk off only one day

China to normalize relations with South Korea

Brazil – after last year’s impeachment the new president Temer in the same shoes

ECB speakers defended the status quo, no clear path yet

Trump mess may push markets to reprice the risk

Trump visiting Saudi Arabia on Saturday, Aramco to sign business contracts

US job market keeps tightening

NAFTA talks to start in Aug

HF managers refocussing abroad as Trump trade fades

Equities

Bain Capital eyeing Toshiba

Deutsche Bank rebuilding reputation by asking former execs to participate financially at covering the bill they left for misconduct

Danone betting on synergies (WhiteWave) and cost cutting

Alibaba announced USD 6 bln buyback

Bombardier facing a probe on price dumping, action initiated by Boeing

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.24% (important 2.15% as an indicator of risk)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

Upcoming

ECB’s Praet (0900 GMT), Constancio (1200 GMT) speaking

Fed’s Bullard (1315 GMT), Willaims (1740 GMT) speaking

Iran presidential elections - impact on security and oil production

Raisi an orthodox cleric, promoting isolation

Rouhani globalist who negotiated the nuclear deal

May 24 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (1330 GMT)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike at 65%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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Apr 20, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia started in red but turned to green as oil recovered a bit

Europe opening higher

ECB officials see stimulus measures as appropriate in the light of low inflation pressures

Beige book – economy modest to moderate growth, inflation in check, lack of sufficient low-skilled workers and issues with workers fluctuation

Akzo Nobel struggling with pushy take over bid from PPG

Rio Tinto stays positive despite drop in iron production and lower prices

Bombardier upheld by court, Ontario can not cancelled the train order

AstraZeneca looking to deliver in immune/oncology field

Keystone XL pipeline not an easy deal for TransCanada despite Trump support

As farmers in Nebraska may bring more clouds

BlackRock benefiting from higher volumes in ETFs

While short of revenue estimate

FTSE 100 testing lows despite Europe higher

Earnings season

US corporates doing well

Morgan Stanley with higher bond trading than Goldman Sachs

Proving that Goldman is loosing the market share

Today:

Visa – should benefit from higher volume but FX conversions may hurt

Philip Morris – should benefit from better sales of cigarettes and their alternatives

Verizon – results to be effected by strong competition in wireless and Yahoo acquisition

Bonds

Investors still sitting in bonds ahead of FR elections

And keeping the yields low

GE-FR spread hit the high of 79 bps

10-yr Trys yield at 2.20%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.19%

FX

DXY – close to key levels

Support at 99.26 (61.8% Fibo), 99.00 rising trendline and 200 DMA (98.97)

USDJPY – close to support at 108.50

Below 200 DMA at 108.86

And descending trendline

EURUSD – support at 1.0706 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance: 1.0750, 1.0760/70 (descending triangle trendline), 1.0830 (Feb high), 1.0840 (200 DMA + descending trendline)

FR elections to set the direction as triangle is closing

GBPUSD – Is it heading to 1.3000/35 ?

French election the crucial test

If market positive outcome (Macron to second round, Le Pen disappointing)

Sterling may benefit

Commodities

Oil dropped yesterday on build up in gasoline inventories and smaller drop in US stockpiles

Refinery demand strong = lower inventories of oil

But refineries producing lots of gasoline = stocks rising as gasoline demand is low

Drop was also supported by removing of risk premiums as some geopolitical risks faded off

Oil market not to go higher for now

Short side speculators driving the market overall

Resistance USD 51.50 (50.0% Fibo)

Support USD 49.60 (61.8% Fibo)

Data

US: Initial Jobless Claims – to stay close to lows

US: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing – likely to ease further

Powell (Fed) speaking at 1200 GMT

Carney (BoE) speaking at 1530 GMT

Upcoming:

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

40% still undecided

Official results at 1800 GMT

Exit polls from midday but on BE and CH media only

More precise estimates around 1600 GMT

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 12, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia on a safe side on geopolitical risks, JPY, gold and VIX up

Europe opening higher

Kuroda – BoJ easing for price stability and not to target FX levels

Will keep going with easing to reach 2% inflation

BoJ reduced 3-5 yr bond purchases

Xi sent a message to Trump to solve the situation in North Korea in a peaceful way

Japan joining US in North Korea muscle flexing on the sea

US Sec Tillerson in Russia today

Merkel against EZ mutual debt to distinguish herself in election year from Schulz

Greece and Portugal would need to address debt sustainability anyway

China PPI at 7.6% but serious real estate problem

Economy way overleveraged (80% of GDP)

Will be negatively impacted by deleveraging that would need to take place at certain point in time anyway

VIX was up to 15.88% despite S&P 500 just slightly lower

BHP Billiton rejected any attempts to change the corporate strategy from Elliott Management side

Siemens to partner with Bombardier in train production to better position themselves against Chinese CRRC Corp

United shares hit by passenger issue due to overbooking

It seems like a very common practise by airliners to overbook and then offer you an incentive or compensation for not flying or flying another day

Dialog Semiconductor may lose deal with Apple

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% (dropped to 2.28%) - should be temporary on geopolitical risks (Trump acting as a policeman)

While June rate hike is priced at around 60%

If the rate drops further below the 2.30% level it would express the level of doubt of bond market about Fed raising rates sooner than later

10-yr Bund yield at 0.20%

GE-FR spread rising to 74.50 bps again on the back of leftist Menchelon gaining momentum

His surprise win may be a risk event reflected in USDJPY decline

FX options

EURUSD 1m RR dropped sharply, trading below Brexit vote levels

Traders favoring put options (getting more expensive than calls)

Market was buying strikes around French elections heavily yesterday

In a protection move

1w vols dropping sharply yesterday

EURUSD spot flat

EURUSD 1m vols spiking to 12.47 from below 9.00 level

12.50 vols is equal to a spot move of 76 pips a day

EURUSD 1m 25 RR heavily favoring puts

But…

EURUSD 1w vols trading at historically low levels and keep moving lower

What may be due to implied vols underperforming

And market using 1w strikes to finance strikes covering French elections (Apr 23/May 7)

USDJPY – with ease through 110.00

Sitting at descending trendline

But close to 200 DMA at 108.70

Are the bears strong enough to take it below 200 DMA?

Similar picture as for EURUSD

1m vols spiking to 12.48 from above 11.00

1m 25 RR dropping sharply following spot and favoring puts

Liquidity to disappear quickly as we get closer to Easter holidays

Shouldn’t experience any change unless we really have a huge event this week

Than we can see sharp moves either way

6m vols trading very cheap compared to risk events as French & German elections, North Korea, Syria are

Data

UK: Labour Market Report to stay resilient

Kaplan (Fed) speaking at 1400 GMT

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 20, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed after last week

EU markets opening lower

G20 take away:

Free trade short of support

Mnuchin to correct imbalances – but the simple message to US is: “Consume less, Save more”

End of globalization trends? Or end of US on globalization map?

Merkel and Abe showed strong support for free trade on Sunday (after G20)

G20 outcome is negative for stocks

FOMC feelings still present in the market

Positive on EU stocks (if French elections positive) but higher EUR is a risk

US stocks negative view, may be playing with put options going to Q2

Deutsche Bank to issue news shares worth of EUR bln as a part of strategy shift

Swiss Re to focus more on tailor made solutions to generate more profits out of the deals

Tesla raised USD 1.2 bln to fund its activities, especially Model 3 and battery production

The proof that investors are still interested to participate at Tesla story via shares or convertible notes

Sinopec close to buying refinery from Chevron in South Africa (USD 1 bln)

Bombardier still struggling to handle the deal with Toronto Transportation Agency worth of CAD 770 mln

Oil – speculative shorts double while longs were cut (COT report)

May be pointing to new weakening cycle in oil as US shale production keeps rising

Critical levels: WTI USD 51.15 and Brent USD 48

Gold – also experienced net long positioning cut by almost the half (COT report) going to FOMC last week

Risk to upside move higher on weaker USD, geopolitical risks and huge demand from India

Levels: 1238 (61.8% Fibo), then targeting last high at 1263

USD close to key support levels, trading below 100 DMA

DXY 99.26 (61.8% Fibo), H+S, descending support line around 98.90

Few Fed speakers this week with Yellen (Thu) can clarify the FOMC stance
Important event for USD will be Obamacare repeal vote on Thursday
If passed, likely USD supportive - a sign of Trump having support for his further policies

EURUSD not clearly ready to break 1.0800/50 on political risks ahead of French elections

But market keeps pricing out the risk of Le Pen win despite her advances in the polls

Security question back on the table after shooting at the airport in Paris

10-yr Trys yield at 2.49%, failed to break clearly 2.60% level again

Back to 2.30%-2.50/60% range

Bund yields rising at short end while longer end is unchanged

10 bps rise in EZ rates by Jan 2018 is already priced in

Visco (ECB) – rising rates and terminating QE can be closely linked

Data

EZ: Labour Cost Index – expected to go higher

US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – expected to go higher

France – election debate tonight

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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