Showing posts with label #G7. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #G7. Show all posts

Friday, 26 May 2017

May 26, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia down as OPEC disappointed the market by not delivering what traders hoped for
Cut extended for 9 and not 12 months, expected deeper cuts
Oil was down 5% and still heavy today
Europe opening lower


Risk off continues on OPEC, lower yields and dovish Bullard (inflation worrisome, Fed aggressive)
Looking forward to balance sheet reduction in H2

Trump’s son-in-law who is a part of his senior advisers team is under FBI investigation over Russia
USD 20 bln Blackstone-Saudis deal underlies how important Blackstone is for Kushner’s family
As they borrowed from the company few hundred mlns and company worked on their NY mansion

Moody’s - China not able to curb the debt, risk of another downgrade
China to change Yuan fixing formula to adjust for lower volatility
China not to pursue a competitive devaluation

UK consumers hit by rising prices
UK’s May falling in polls, GBP down

Equities

Full “bail in” talk of regional banks Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca
Denied by officials
GM facing a lawsuit over emissions
Ford behind GM in new models
Canadian banks don’t see the threat to their business from fallout of Home Capital

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25%%
10-yr Bund yield at 0.36%


Fed funds rate vs EURUSD  link


EURUSD

Offers around 1.1250-60
Still lots of bid below
1.1314 (76.4% Fibo)
1.1128 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Bids towards 111.50, more towards 111.00 – range with heavy option expiries as well
Offers may be present going to 112.00
50 DMA at 111.25 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

Iron ore
Inventories highest since 2004 (136 mln tonnes)
Important support 450

Data,

G7 meeting (growth, employment, security)
ECB’s Coeure (2000 GMT)

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate
June 8 – ECB meeting
June 8 – UK elections
June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)
June 13/14 – FOMC meeting


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Monday, 10 April 2017

Apr 10, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia with some caution
Europe opened higher but mixed now


Trump-Xi meeting – both declared friendship, trust and ready to work together…but no agreements
No real consensus on North Korea, US trade deficit on the table over the next three months
Chinese in South Korea to discuss North Korea

US NFPs lower on weather and layoffs in retail sector
Underlying theme staying strong with good household survey and unemployment rate down to 4.5% (full employment) without any change in participation rate

Canada still not sure about how US is committed to introducing a border tax

Oil looking for a balance between Syria, higher demand and drilling activity in US

Deutsche Bank raised EUR 8 bln of fresh capital what can please regulators
And help with new investments and legal expenses
Rio Tinto had a lower tax bill globally due to lower earnings
Fox (part of Murdoch’s group) to acquire Sky
US equity funds experienced a huge outflow
As US investors search for better opportunities overseas going to Q1 earnings season

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.23%
10-yr Trys yield at 2.39% - after US NFPs the yield dipped below 2.30% support but recovered quickly
Trys kept selling off as market focussed on positive part and Dudley downplayed the impact of reduction in balance sheet on the pace of rate hikes
And confirmed the reduction start at the end of 2017 or early 2018
Moves in USD and Trys yields after NFPs clearly point to stronger USD and higher US yields

ECB to publish bond buying data (first after lowering the monthly buying amount)
Used to buy EUR 365 mln a day
Staying close to EUR 300 mln a day may have a positive effect on corporates but negative on govs
Recall – ECB has not specified about the split: govs/corps, sector…etc.

COT report

EUR staying pretty flat after adding few shorts
GBP near record shorts after trimming them a bit

USDJPY – traders not sure about risk off mood as the JPY weakens (after NFPs/Dudley)
If we get well above 112.00, we are likely on the way higher towards 115.00

Gold 3m vols very low close to 2013/2014 levels
If geopolitical/risk off even or 200 DMA at 1255 broken

We can see a sharp move higher

Data

EZ: Sentix Investor Confidence Index expecting higher print
US: Labor Market Conditions Index expecting a lower number
US: Employment Trends Index to provide a bit more clarity on Friday’s NFPs
G7 foreign ministers meeting in Italy today

Yellen speaking (2000 GMT)

Short week ahead of Easter holidays, thus lower liquidity

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2nd round


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom