Nov 9, 2017 - Market Update (Brexit saga continues - EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to come up with something, GE signing deals (USD 3.5 bln) in China Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales, 10-yr Trys yield key levels 2.27% & 2.50% to show DXY direction, EURUSD cluelessly waiting for US yields and stocks, Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue)

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher

US tax reform in place likely in 2019 on respecting proper budget rules

TPP – 11 countries at the table and discussing

UAE investigating financial transactions/assets of 19 Saudis at its banks

Brexit saga – EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to bring the bill otherwise not able to prepare for Dec summit

US & SoKo Navy to launch drills near Korean peninsula

Equities

General Electric signed 3 deals in China (USD 3.5 bln)

Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales

The Banco Santander laying off 2000 employees as part of Banco Popular take over

Tencent buying 12% of Snap

Earnings

Walt Disney – theme park revenues to help

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33% vs 2.31% yesterday

Key levels 2.27% and 2.50% for further DXY direction

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33% vs 0.33% yesterday

EURUSD

Volatility is extremely low, only central banks drive the market

Market not sure which way to go

Currently near fair value according to Barclays

USD needs to speed up otherwise we are again back to nowhere

Thus US yields the key, eventually stocks

Expiring options of note with strike 1.1600 (EUR 1.7 bln), much more between 1.1650-1.1700

Stops sitting below 1.1550

Bids sitting above 1.1500

Resistance at 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1620 (200 HMA), 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Support at 1.1590 (55 HMA), 1.1570/50, 1.1500, 1.1490 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Higher US yields and stocks helped

Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue

Resistance at 113.78 (10 DMA), 114.40/50, 114.72

Support at 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Data/events

Busy day with ECB speakers but Draghi firmly laid down dovish view few two weeks ago...

Any surprise today? As number of opponents is growing...

ECB’s Noy (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Mersch (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1345 GMT)

ECB’s Villeroy (1500 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann (1800 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1820 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 28, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up on Wall Street and month-end flows

EU trading mixed

Trump met with Chinese official to talk about security and meeting with CN president

Abe/Kuroda – will keep stimulus in place

Some EU firms not able to repatriate profits from China (unconfirmed rumour)

But PBOC confirmed that companies use standard channels to do so

Saudis looking at crude oil around USD 60 level this year

Oil supported by OPEC cuts despite higher US production

But WTI may test 52.70 as the market can not break through 55.00

Banks refraining from commenting the political developments in order to avoid being biased

Fed’s Kaplan sent a strong message yesterday on rate hike (Mar 15 now priced at 50%)

Would need to have the same strong rhetoric from Yellen and Fisher as well

But FOMC may pre-confirm the May hike in March instead of rising rate

GE-FR spread contracts to 66 bps from 79 bps on Macron

Still some politics around new Scottish referendum

USDJPY

Likely range of 110-115 as a first reaction to Trump surprise good or bad

But all comes back to 10 yr US Trys yield

Data

Tue:

2^nd estimate of US GDP expecting at 2.1% vs 1.9% last month

US: House prices – expecting at 5.3%

US: Consumer confidence – expecting no change

Fed’s Williams, Bullard speaking

Trump speaking (1100) – recorded interview on Fox to be released

Trump at joint session of Congress (0200-0330 Wed morning)

Likely to express opinions and plans closer to Congress way of thinking in order to get his plans through

If not, would need to fight with Congress to get them approved

Will touch taxes and infrastructure but more details on taxes on Mar 13-14 as a part of the budget

During the speech to watch the reaction of 10 yr Trys yield (currently 2.36%) as the rest of the market will just follow

Support levels: 2.30%, 2.15% and 2.00%
Resistance at 2.52%

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More