(Video) Dax weekly - market update - 2016 08 07

Hi, it's an update to our DAX weekly overview ( week 24 ). Market is testing top of the channel and looks bearish for us. Please check the video below where I discuss few possible trade scenarios both bullish and bearish from long term and short term perspective. Enjoy!

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Forex Trading - Live Market Coverage 19.07.2016

Hi all,


that's beta test of our Forex Live Market Coverage - Market Makers Method / Price Action / Supply & Demand. ( Page does not refresh automatically ! )

15:40 GMT - Ok, that's it today, without fireworks, watching market and will update. Watching current USDJPY PA, also AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF and AUDUSD. Trade Idea will publish as separate post ( if any ). Have  a great rest of the day ! 

14:39 GMT - USDJPY looking to buy intraday dips ( but breakout point needs to hold )

13:17 GMT - USDCAD: looking to sell intraday, pls check chart below:

12:46 GMT - Action ! after US data, EURUSD looking to sell on rallies twds 1,1040/50 ( if seen ), will update

12:18 GMT - doing nothing... just watching

10:47 GMT - GBPUSD below ydy low, testing Fridays low...

10:27 GMT - EURGBP: pls check chart below:

09:04 GMT - Strategy: Stand aside for now

08:42 GMT - ZEW next... waiting for 1,11+ stop hunting before or right after the news....

08:30 GMT - UK CPI:  June mm +0.2% vs +0.2% exp

08:00 GMT - EURUSD looking for 1,09, intraday selling rallies could be the name of the game...

07:20 GMT - EURJPY possible scenarios:

06:50 GMT - EURUSD - looking for Friday pre-US data high as potential intraday supply zone

06:18 GMT - USDJPY is testing intraday supply ( within daily supply ), not big pullback suggest we may see stop loss hunting soon...

05:44 GMT - GBPUSD bulls need to close the day above 1,3342/3422 ( looking to sell while below that zone ), UK CPI next...

05:19 GMT - Good morning...

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading       teams view on past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not and shouldn´t been viewed   as an investment advice and the creator of this material shouldn´t been hold liable for any loss resulting from       action where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this  material  as an investment advice. 

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Forex Trading - Live Market Coverage 15.07.2016

Hi all,
Join Us again, we are back tomorrow 15th of July 2016

that's beta test of our Forex Live Market Coverage - Market Makers Method / Price Action / Supply & Demand. ( Page does not refresh automatically ! )

18:16 GMT - missed EURGBP buy opportunity, then after strong US data we have not seen any USD pullback, hence we were not able to go long. I'm sure a lot of opportunities again next week. Have a great weekend !

15:39 GMT - intraday SP 500 FUT trying to break to the downside

14:20 GMT - EURAUD waiting for daily and weekly close, could be very interesting early next week

13:55 GMT - slow Friday market... intraday loking to buy some USD on dip, will update

12:44 GMT - Real avg weekly earnings are better ( +1,2% y/y vs +1,1% prev ) and that could be the key for USD later today

12:00 GMT - Waiting for US data...

11:23 GMT - GBP strong bounce / rally this week ( thx to GBPJPY and BOE ? ). GBPUSD 1,35 as key today.

10:55 GMT - XAUUSD ( Gold ) please check comment on the chart

10:31 GMT - USDJPY waiting for US data, we are testing supply zone based on daily chart 

10:21 GMT - USDCAD waiting for US data, strong data + possible demand around 1,2825 equals long for me

10:09 GMT - ALERT: EURGBP limit to buy at 0,8295, stop offer 0,8258, risk 0,25%

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading       teams view on past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not and shouldn´t been viewed   as an investment advice and the creator of this material shouldn´t been hold liable for any loss resulting from       action where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this  material  as an investment advice. 

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Forex - Live European Session 12.07.2016

Hi all,
Join Us again, we are back tomorrow 12th of July 2016

that's beta test of our Forex Live Market Coverage - Market Makers Method / Price Action / Supply & Demand. ( Page does not refresh automatically ! )

10:47 GMT ( 13.07.2016 )  Summary of yesterday Live Market Coverage:
GBPUSD remaining 50% closed at entry level ( so +0,25% in total ) and EURUSD stopped out ( -0,25% ). Total for a day: -0,5%

02.08 GMT - EURUSD long, target 1,1109 / GBPUSD remaining short, target 1,3192 GL

01:52 GMT - GBPUSD closing 50% at 1,3272.... stop for remaining 50% at entry

01:35 GMT - AUDUSD 0,7597... pop from here possible / EURGBP still looking to buy

01:17 GMT - EURGBP stop hit -0,25% / GBPUSD selling some at market ( 1,3327 ) stop bid 1,3365

23:22 GMT - Early Tokio preview:
Long 0,5% EUR via EURUSD and EURGBP ( at some point may decide to change one of them to EURAUD, dont need bigger EUR exposure )
GBPUSD - as mentioned b4, looking to fade pop above 1,33
AUDUSD - softer here, been short ( with BE ) earlier and will look to sell rallies
USDCAD - staying out for now, BOC rate decision on Wednesday
XXXJPY - maybe Im wrong waiting for deeper intraday dips but not going to chase the price

Will update...

17:16 GMT - ALERT: EURUSD very risky Limit to buy at 1,1064, stop offer 1,1049, risk 0,25% GL

17:14 GMT - GBPUSD - looking to sell first pop above 1,33

16:43 GMT - UPDATE: EURGBP holding long position....

16:01 GMT - SP 500 FUT stop has been hit, -0,25%

14:58 GMT - USDCHF shame, as expected but without us. I was too afraid and to focused on the supply from previous hour...

14:28 GMT - ALERT: AUDUSD exited here at 0,0,7632, we did nothing for last 6 hrs or so...

14:27 GMT - ALERT: SP 500 FUT holding short, will close 50% at 2134 ( if seen ), will move stop to entry and 2120 as final target GL.

14:03 GMT - ALERT: USDCHF exited here at 0,9831/32 / SP500 FUT short at mkt ( around 2142 ) stop 2146, risk 0,25% GL

13:43 GMT - Short Summary:

EURGBP limit order to buy...
AUDUSD holding short, please check ROADMAP below
USDCHF holding long, WILL MOVE STOP TO ENTRY when price hit 0,9850
XXXJPY there was only shallow dip right after Europe open, still looking to buy but don't want to chase the price

As we already have 0,5% exposure in long USD, we are not looking to add for now. Will update.

13:08 GMT - ALERT: EURGBP limit to buy at 0,8355, stop offer 0,8309, target 0,8615, risk 0,25% GL

12:05 GMT - ALERT: USDCHF - gone long at 0,9830, stop offer at 0,9810 targeting 0,99 zone, risk 0,25%  GL

11:31 GMT - AUDUSD holding short... ROADMAP ( valid as long as below our stop lvl :) ):
at 0,7611 will move stop to entry level
at 0,7602 will close 50%
0,7587 as final target ( also will check PA and will look for longs )

10:38 GMT - EURGBP waiting for any kind of stop hunting twds 0,84 before long

10:05 GMT - USDJPY 104,00/05 next possible intraday supply... but market may want to punish shorts and try to rally till Friday US CPI and Retail Sales data. Don't want to trade against right now, looking to buy deeper dips ( if seen )

09:27 GMT - ALERT: AUDUSD limit to sell at 0.7632, stop bid 0,7652, risk 0,25% GL

09:06 GMT - XAUUSD ( Gold ) ydy close below 1358 is what I was waiting for ( please check Gold analysis here ), will try to short intraday rallies twds 1362/66 ( if seen ), will update

08:49 GMT - EURGBP: Carney next... are we going to get any hint related to Thursday's BOE rate decision ? Will look to buy on dips ( please check chart below ):

08:00 GMT - USDJPY quick and strong sudden sell-off, was not able to send trade idea on time... but if short then at least partial profit taking here

07:52 GMT - AUDUSD intraday within supply zone but be carefull with selling, bears could face more pain short term as I mentioned in our Weekly Tech Overview here

07:36 GMT - USDJPY intraday, will try to trade both sides...

07:27 GMT - EURUSD looking to sell intraday rallies...

07:22 GMT - GBPUSD approaching intraday supply...

07:01 GMT Good Morning, Europe is open....



 DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading       teams view on past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not and shouldn´t been viewed   as an investment advice and the creator of this material shouldn´t been hold liable for any loss resulting from       action where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this  material  as an investment advice. 

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Forex - Live European Session 05.07.2016 ( UPDATE )

Hi,
that's short update to our Live Market Coverage:

13:09 GMT - XAUUSD ( Gold )  closing half short from 1371 here around 1359, for remaining 50% stop has been moved lower to entry level...

12:20 GMT - We are taking profit on SP500 Futures as per our plan from last meeting.

SP500 FUTURES we are taking profit here around 2090, +0,75%

13:46 GMT - Ok, let's try to summarize what we have:

1. USDJPY looking to buy dips around 101,50/40

2. XAUUSD ( GOLD ) looking to sell around 1371...

3. GBPUSD not for me for now

4. EURGBP missed buy, looking to buy dips to 0,8470 ... if seen

5. EURUSD will try to trade intraday extremes but be carefull as main focus is EURGBP ( at least for now )

6. USDCAD missed by few pips or so.... I know some of you took it on a break to the upside ( if you don't know what I mean check our USDCAD chart )

7. AUDUSD missed sell, they did not even try to look for stops above Tokio high

8. SP500 Futures as per chart below, looking to trade both sides

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Forex - Live European Session 05.07.2016

Hi all,

that's beta test of our Forex Live Market Coverage - Market Makers Method / Price Action / Supply & Demand. ( Page does not refresh automatically ! )

15:15 GMT - USDJPY order cancelled, That's it for today, will update the date of our next Live Session. Stay Tuned ! Please don't hesitate to contact us should you have additional questions. Have a good evening !

14:23 GMT - USDJPY buy limit @ 101,37, stop offer 101,17, target 101,94, risk 0,25% GL

13:46 GMT - Ok, let's try to summarize what we have:

1. USDJPY looking to buy dips around 101,50/40

2. XAUUSD ( GOLD ) looking to sell around 1371...

3. GBPUSD not for me for now

4. EURGBP missed buy, looking to buy dips to 0,8470 ... if seen

5. EURUSD will try to trade intraday extremes but be carefull as main focus is EURGBP ( at least for now )

6. USDCAD missed by few pips or so.... I know some of you took it on a break to the upside ( if you don't know what I mean check our USDCAD chart )

7. AUDUSD missed sell, they did not even try to look for stops above Tokio high

8. SP500 Futures as per chart below, looking to trade both sides

13:09 GMT - USDJPY like it around 101,50/40... will update

12:26 GMT - US Open - USD in demand again and probably it will stay here till NFP

11:01 GMT - ... and its lunchtime :)  will be back around 12:15 GMT...

10:50 GMT - XAUUSD ( Gold ) looking for Market Maker manipulation b4 selling. Price Action should tell us the truth around US open:

10:08 GMT - SP 500 Futures: my intraday demand and supply zones, please chceck chart below:

9:31 GMT - JPY: watching crosses here, bulls trying to step in but SP500 will tell the truth...

9:17 GMT - EURUSD intraday watching 1,1125, if hold ( test is needed ) then small / quick long possible...

8:57 GMT - USDCAD intraday on the move, looks like I may have to modify my entry... watching

8:32 GMT - AUDUSD: intraday looking for sell rallies... again :)

7:56 GMT - EURUSD: Im not a seller ( yet ), especially with strong EURGBP rally...

7:30 GMT - EURUSD:  Market Makers are doing the job :)  - stop hunting round....

7:25 GMT - USDCAD still looking to buy, hopefully ydy dip was not our miss ;)  ( below our USDCAD chart from last week updated ):

7:02 GMT - EURGBP: we are done b4 Europe open :) 

Looking to buy on pullback twds 0,84

6:50 GMT - short Tokio summary: Strong JPY, also USD doing well. AUD, CAD, GBP on a weak side. Charts coming soon...

6:35 GMT - Good Morning...

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Forex - Intraday - EURUSD and USDCAD ideas

EURUSD -  I'm still looking to sell intraday rallies but would like to have an edge :)
In that case I have to be patient FX trader, so I'm waiting for Market Makers to clean some stops to the upside first...

USDCAD - I like the idea of buying USDCAD on intraday dips ( at the same time watching developments on oil market, will try not to be trapped :) ).

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Forex - Live European Session 30.06.2016

Hi all,

that's beta test of our Forex Live Market Coverage - Market Makers Method / Price Action / Supply & Demand.

15:20 GMT - Carney is speaking on Brexit, FROM RTRS *sees need for summer stimulus after Brexit shock * that's the explanation of what we have seen last few minutes... of course AUDUSD closed at entry lvl... Let's leave Big Boys with their own End Of The Month Game... Next Live Market Coverage on Tuesday

14:20 GMT - AUDUSD stop has been moved lower to entry level, XAUUSD as mentioned below was waiting for stop hunting rally but looks like some sellers stepped in a bit earlier around 1322 ( small miss here ), EURUSD unfortunately bulls were not able to push price higher, so I was not able to participate in last sell-off ( pls check earlier explanation of my different approach to AUDUSD and EURUSD ). Ladies and Gents EOMonth, EOQ flow, options related flow, fix flow ... LOL  ... that's it from me today, will update AUDUSD if anything ( summary after trade close )... Have a great evening, enjoy...football game :)

13:40 GMT - USD in demand again... DX looks much better right now...

12:50 GMT - What was different in my approach to AUDUSD and EURUSD:

1. DX ( AUD is not included in dollar basket ) chart did not look good at that very time, so I was waiting for something special on EURUSD ( like stop hunting on higher lvls )
2. Intraday damage ( damage done on short term chart like 10 min: done on AUDUSD, not on EURUSD )
3. I did not want build more USD longs without special * event * ( without some kind of edge on my side )

Hopefully that clarify a lot ( and if not dont hesitate to contact us for further explanation :) )

11:55 GMT - AUDUSD holding short position... ROADMAP ( valid as long as market is trading below our stop :) ): 1. at 0,7426 I will move my stop to entry, 2. at 0,7396 I will close 50% of  my position, 3. my final target is at 0,7356 Good Luck

11:33 GMT - EURUSD hey, wait ! Guys try to make some more stops to the upside... I'm not in yet :) :) :)

10:53 GMT - AUDUSD I'm short....

10:35 GMT - Gold ( XAUUSD ) intraday, under normal market condition I would go with short on rallies twds 1318/19 but not today ( end of the month, end of the quarter etc ), waiting for my edge which in my opinion could be stop hunting rally twds 1325 around US open ;)

9:53 GMT - EURUSD intraday  looking to sell as mentioned before nut not waiting with an order as the left side of the chart is not perfect for me ( blue circle ). Would like to see price action around possible supply zone on 10min chart, please check chart below ( hopefully you got my point ):

9:27 GMT - Gold ( XAUUSD ) intraday will watch around 1325... sell opportunity ?

8:50 GMT - S&P 500 ( ESU ) looks like mkt wants to test pre-Brexit high. It makes perfect sense, especially as huge drop took place after US regular session. So let's test that supply :)

8:30 GMT - EURUSD looking to sell on rallies ( above 1,1140 ), will update

8:05 GMT - AUDUSD I have limit to sell order at 0,7456, with stop bid at 0,7476, risk 0,25%, please check the chart below for full explanation:

7:58 GMT - GBP in most cases is playing with Sunday gaps...  EURGBP looking to sell

7:43 GMT - Good Morning, EOM and EOQ flows dominate...

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Forex - Live European Session 28.06.2016 ( Updated )

Hi all,

that's beta test of our Forex Live Market Coverage - Market Makers Method / Price Action / Supply & Demand.

8:38 GMT ( 29.06.2016 ) - thank you in advance for any comments and feedbacks.

JOIN US TOMORROW AGAIN ( 30.06.2016 ) - NEXT LIVE TRADING COVERAGE STARTS BEFORE EUROPE OPEN  

8:20 GMT ( 29.06.2016 ) - SUMMARY: Good start of our new idea - Live Market Coverage. The main purpose is education while monitoring FX market, to show how we read the mkt ( Market makers Manipulation, Price Action, Supply & Demand ).
0,5% daily profit, if we could do that everyday... :)  and we missed few trades by few pips.
In addition, I'm going to record short video: how I manage intraday FX positions,
Im pretty sure it its going to be useful and will help you to understand how to manage the risk easy.

14:56 GMT - AUDUSD 0,7371 taking profit at the end of my day... so 30 pips booked ... 1 to 2 risk reward ratio. I've been risking 0,25% of my account value, so my profit is 0,5%. Goodies...

14:50 GMT - AUDUSD holding short, moved stop loss order to 0,7386 to ensure 15 pips or 1 to 1 risk / reward... will update

14:20 GMT - AUDUSD holding intraday short... as day is coming to the end for me, I moved my stop to entry level... will update

14:15 GMT - Market Flow: Stocks in a window dressing mood, USD demand visible...

13:34 GMT - AUDUSD intraday short explanation: I've been waiting for stop hunting earlier today ( check comments below ) and I missed good entry. Since then mkt made lower low on 10 min TF , channel has been created and I took the chance to go short on third test of the channel top, please check details on the chart below ( entry, stop and target are visible ), any hesitations let me know ( via Contact Form ):

13:20 GMT - EURUSD is testing intraday demand...

13:01 GMT - GBPUSD watching, would like to see how really strong bulls are above 1,3430+ , EURUSD  missed morning entry ( no retest ) and do not want to chase the mkt...

12:55 GMT - USDCAD if bears fail here then 1,3160/80+ again on the radar...

12:36 GMT - AUDUSD selling some intraday at 0,7401, stop if bid 0,7416, risk: 0,25% GL

12:17 GMT - We are back... EURUSD found support around 1,1060 ( also mentioned b4 ), USDCAD intraday bulls took out 1,3030 and working with 1,3050 ( m-phone mid-line 1h chart ), watching price action here, EURGBP still looking to sell, awaiting confirmation, Gold ( XAUUSD ) is trying to hold earlier mentioned demand zone, AUDUSD - intraday weak, that's what we expected, did not hit stops yet

11:20 GMT - Short break here, waiting for US traders to join, will be back b4 US data

11:16 GMT - EURUSD UPDATE: CANCELLED, still looking to sell

10:43 GMT - USDCAD ... reversing, 1,3030 next ?

10:20 GMT - EURUSD I have limit to sell at 1,1109, stop bid 1,1136 ( again bit wider than under normal mkt condition ) and I'm targeting 1,1020/00 ( earlier will watch 1,1060 as well )

10:04 GMT - EURUSD looking for stops as expected... watching

10:02 GMT - USDCAD UPDATE 2: CANCELLED, missed entry by 5/6 pips and mkt is approaching our first target

9:41 GMT - USDCAD UPDATE: pls check the chart below for explanation. Under normal mkt condition our stop would be just above supply zone visible on the chart

9:24 GMT - USDCAD I do have limit to sell at 1,30, with 1,3023 stop bid, targeting 1,2960/40, risking 0,25% GL

9:19 GMT - USDCAD retesting 1.30 after breakdown... oil will be the key

8:44 GMT - AUDUSD let's see if we can get a bit higher prices, looking for intraday stops

8:34 GMT - EURUSD that is how I see the things ( for now only :) ):

8:23 GMT - Please bear in mind that end of the month and end of the quarter flow ( window dressing ) may dominate !

8:02 GMT - EURGBP testing supply zone on weekly chart, watching intraday price action b4 short

7:45 GMT - EURUSD looking for stop hunting rally 1,11+ b4 short ( for now )

7:35 GMT - USDCAD possible intraday demand 1,2945/25 ( watching oil as well )

7:26 GMT - Gold ( XAUUSD ) key intraday demand between 1307/1298 imho, EURUSD above ydy open but still opening gap is valid

7:15 GMT - AUDUSD watching possible intraday supply around 0,7408/16

7:06 GMT - Forex Live Coverage has educational purpose only ! Please check our disclaimer below.

7:00 GMT - Risk on at open. Watching FX majors, gold, oil and indices.

6:49 GMT - Good Morning.

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Red Alert - BREXIT notes ( part 3 ) - Personal advice

Hi all,
... and its done.

There are 3 possibilities how traders are positioned right now ( and my personal advice for each ):

1. You hit the jackpot - You were on the right side of the market. Don't give up any penny You have made last night. Start your big weekend now ! Traders took some/all profits already, we don't know what may happen over the weekend ( politicians / central bankers etc )

2. You did not take the risk - you were in the bed. No worries, you are going to have plenty of chances next week. Don't trade, start your weekend ( the same reasons as above ) !

3. You were on the wrong side and now you are trying to recover losses. STOP ! Turn off your computer and enjoy the weekend. Try to recover mentally to be ready to back on Monday !

Unfortunately, there is one more... You were on the wrong side and you were not able to manage your positions/losses properly and you have been stopped out... If that is true believe me I'm really sorry ( I've been in that position in the past ). The only possible advice: it was extremely expensive lesson , try to get as much as you can from it before you'll try to get back and revenge / punish the market.

We ( as Land of Trading group ) at the beginning of the road with our project and the Brexit event was a great test for us and our Beta testers. We would like to say thank you for the support.

Valuable stuff is coming, stay tuned...

Have a great weekend !

Mr Price Action

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Red Alert - BREXIT notes ( part 2 ) - Forex liquidity problems

Liquidity

As we a will be approaching the close of polling stations (2100 GMT) tonight, the liquidity will be likely drying up more and more, thus the risk of gapping or abrupt market moves will become very high. Being prudent in such cases means to scale down the trading activity, ticket sizes or eventually, open a bottle of good wine and watch the market.

As the whole FX industry is changing, there is more and more algos and machines running the trading instead of human prop traders these days. That may also have a negative effect on market making and supporting the sufficient liquidity, as machines are easy to turn off anytime, especially in the event of huge market risk/stress. It is good not to forget about that.

In case of Leave vote the BoE is ready to cut the rate by 25 bps and eventually, look at reinstating of asset purchases. Globally, the central banks are ready to support the market by additional liquidity and to calm down everyone, G7 is preparing a statement. Not only ECB can cut the rates but also other central banks in Europe can do so, as an immediate reaction. Definitely they will monitoring their currencies strengthening and inflation weakening. And as Yellen and other Fed officials mentioned recently, the next rate hike can be postponed to Dec or next year, as they do not feel comfortable with Brexit referendum as such, as well as its impact across the markets.

What’s next after Leave vote?

Well, hard to say, but there are two scenarios on the table:

1) David Cameron would need to activate the Article 50 of EU Treaty and start the negotiations with Brussel and member states about conditions of exiting the EU. They will have a two year period to reach the agreement and if not, the applicability of EU Treaties over UK will cease to exist. If no agreement is reached, the UK will become a country without any agreement in place with EU.

2) The negotiations with EU will start first and then, the Article 50 will be activated just to complete the process. Under both scenarios, it would be extremely difficult for UK to negotiate advantageous conditions of further relationship with EU.

We don’t want to speculate on the outcome at the moment, but there is lots at stake and it would very costly for UK and EU to walk that way. Also worth of mentioning, if UK decides to join the club again in the future, it would be pretty hard to get the consent from every member of EU.

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Red Alert - BREXIT notes

FX movements

In case of a Leave vote, there is no doubt about GBP weakening sharply. The stress will spread to EM space, EUR and other risk assets. On the flip side of the coin should be JPY, CHF and gold.

What really makes a difference from the CHF event, BoJ surprise move weakening the JPY by 3% or events related to ZAR move of 10%, is that the market was getting ready for quite some time. The option market has been pricing approx. 8-9% downside move in GBP for couple of weeks. Even with a relief rally on Monday, we are still not out of the woods yet. The GBPUSD vols remain at very high levels as the risk of Brexit is still present and we do not know what will follow.

When looking at possible outcomes we should split between countries with direct trade exposure to UK/EU and with big banking exposure to UK.

As mentioned above, the impact on GBP will be the highest, followed by EUR, CEE EM (CZK, PLN and HUF), other EM (MXN, ZAR, TRY…etc.). The commodity currencies (AUD, NZD or CAD) will be effected less, but may get hurt by a fall in commodity prices.

Event risk is not UK leaving EU but what damage it may bring to EU project as such. On the other hand EU should really do some reflection as migrant crisis, threat from Russia or internal inability at political level to make right decisions at the right time is alarming. Looking like EU is losing the steam at the moment and is not willing to make the necessary structural changes.

HUF and PLN may suffer but interesting development will be in EURCZK, as the immediate reaction may push the cross higher. In case of Remain vote, it may be the contrary but don’t forget about CNB protecting the 27.00 floor, thus limiting downside. But will it really do so, even when the flows will be really huge?

The second aspect to consider are capital flows to safe heavens. There are some currencies that may serve as a parking vehicle like JPY, CHF, SEK or DKK.

The third one may be the inter-connection of banking system of different countries not only to UK but to EU too. Example could be the CEE currencies that are higher beta but still do lots of trading and banking with EU/UK. They may be followed but TRY, ZAR, MXN and to certain extent BRL.


Financials crying?

Yes, they are what was visible by steep declines in their stocks recently. The EU insurers and pension funds piled into bonds as a part of risk management and last minute positioning before Brexit vote. Unwinding of these positions can be massive in case of No vote, what we witnessed on Monday as a part of relief trading. The banks are suffering from low margins due to low/negative rates what is putting additional pressure on the sector as such. Interesting opportunities in UK banks? Look at HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays as they may benefit the most from Stay results not because of revenue but from regulatory visibility within EU legal framework.


A side note

Brexit – the UK vs EU debate is still on the table but the real issue that has caused all the mess is “local” politics in UK, where the Conservative or Labour Party haven’t sorted out how they should view and position themselves with respect to EU membership. But this lack of self-reflection is pretty expensive looking at economic uncertainty and the stress present in financial markets.

Recent polls showed that the “Remain” supporters are slowly coming back.

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