June 20, 2017 - Market Update (USD getting technical support, extreme bearish sentiment turning, US yields rising, US House to finish tax reform in 2017, US stocks getting back to Trump trade on better financial liquidity)

Short recap

Asia green

Europe opening higher

US House looking to complete the tax reform in 2017 as the pressure is mounting

Brexit – EU stance is clear, the exit settlement, final bill and rights of EU citizens come first then the rest as future trade deal…etc.

PBOC pushing for more open financial sector in order to support the healthy developments

Equities

Markets slowly moving higher among extremely low volatility, Techs coming back

But China credit is bubbling and can be a catalyst for correction

MSCI to decide whether Chinese A-shares (domestic shares) will be included in MSCI Emerging Markets Index

Actually, it is already 4^th attempt to get included

Hard to say whether they will succeed and how many share will be included anyway

CVC Capital Partners to sell Continental Foods (EUR 1 bln)

Orange to reduce its stake in BT Group (GBP 900 mln)

Boeing out with new 737 jet

PerkinElmer buying Euroimmun (USD 1.3 bln)

Magna won the BMW 5-series plug-in hybrid production

Paulson on Valeant board

Altaba shares (holding company left from Yahoo sale) to starting to trade on NASDAQ

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18% - moves in yields to show direction of USD. DXY should get further technical support with the close above double bottom neckline and possibility to rally towards 98.50 or so. Actually, the extrem bearish USD sentiment is turning and coming back from the lowest levels last seen in 2011.

10-yr Bund yield at 0.29%

EURUSD

5, 10 and 20 DMA pointing lower

Breaking 1.1194 (10 DMA) can show the momentum lower is weak

Support at 1.1120/30 but the rising trendline around 1.1040 may be the next target

Resistance 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Should get some support from rising US yields

Resistance at 111.82 (Ichimoku), 100 DMA at 111.85

But well set up for a rise towards 114.36

Support at 111.24 (50.0% Fibo)

Large expiring options between 110.50/111.00

Data/Events

Fed’s Fischer (0715 GMT)

BoE’s Carney (0730 GMT)

UK’s Hammond (0800 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (1215 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1500 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1900 GMT)

Wed

Brexit - Queen’s speech 1030 GMT

Thursday

EU Summit

Fed’s Powell (1400 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Bullard (1515 GMT), Mester (1640 GMT), Powell (1815 GMT)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 23, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly up

EU opening higher despite risk off sentiment still present in the markets and not a very great start of Chinese earnings season (Tescent disappointed)

US session showed hesitation with rebound in equities

As only techs experience a correction higher while financials, energy and materials ended the day on a lower note

Banking lobbying groups do not see any revamp of Dodd-Frank soon, may take the initiative and prepare their own proposals

Donation scandal in Japan

Sentiment in financials (banks) can be effected by the last round of LTRO from ECB

Consensus looks at allocating EUR 110 bln (last time it was EUR 62 bln)

Two more regional banks in Italy ready for a bail out what may not be welcome by EU regulators

Westinghouse Electric (Toshiba US) likely facing bankruptcy

GE linking top execs bonuses to cost cutting success

Enbridge looking to cut 1000 infrastructure positions after taking over Spectra Energy

S&P 500 below 2350

Nikkei 225 still flirting with 19 000, the 18 700 is the next

VIX (12.66) and stronger JPY not proving the rebound yet

Bit of fundamental view: Fed on the path of rising rates, political risks in Washington, not clear signs of what Trump really wants to do, risk of wave of protectionism, debt burden is huge around the world, population in developed markets getting older, overall there is an excess of production capacities

Gold taking a break before 1250 (50 % Fibo) and 1258 (200 DMA)

At the moment 200 DMA needs to be broken for further buyers to get attracted

Iron ore keeps falling

Supported by China tightening monetary conditions to address excessive leverage

Also refocussing away from infrastructure and property investments what in turn has negative effects on commodities (iron ore including)

OPEC meeting in Kuwait this weekend

10-yrs Trys yield at 2.41%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.41% - lower after indecision from previous sessions as the higher rates expectations and QE coming to an end still present in the market

Lower USD making monetary conditions more accommodative

Data

UK: Retail Sales to accelerate

EZ: Consumer Confidence Indicator higher print is expected

Fed speakers: Yellen (1245 GMT), Kashkari, Kaplan

ECB speakers: Lautenschlaeger (1500 GMT)

US House voting on Obamacare repeal – expected at 1500 GMT but still not specific time is set. The leaders need to make sure they will have sufficient votes before actually, calling for a vote

Super important event in terms of whether Trump can/is able to deliver or not

Or in case of yes vote how it will turn out with respect to different lobby groups around Republican party

As the US political system is not complicated enough, Trump needs to win the votes of sceptical members of the House Freedom Caucus

Should you have any questions feel free to contact us anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More