Feb 2, 2018 - Market Update (NFPs day but a high bar for USD to rise, Trys rising but where is the USD?, Rising yields challenging stocks (dividend/higher financing), Strong EUR to weight on EU stocks soon, Italy in or out?, eBay dumping PayPal and going for Adyen, Insurers to sell cryptos theft protection)

Short recap

Asia lower

Europe opening mixed

Strong EUR to weigh on EU stocks soon

10-yr Trys yield above 2.75% putting pressure on stocks

As dividend yield is not as attractive as before and cost of financing for companies is getting higher

With recent rise in US yields, economic numbers and improving earnings season

Are we going to see one 50 bps hike among all three hikes expected in 2018?

Equities

Apple likely to return half of USD 285 bln of cash to shareholders

Amazon.com enjoying a record USD 2 bln profit

Royal Dutch Shell attacking Exxon Mobil position of biggest cash generator

Daimler on the spending spree for electric and autonomous vehicles this year

eBay dumping a privilege partnership with PayPal

Adding a Dutch fintech Adyen to payment service

Insurers looking at protection against cryptos thefts

Saudi Arabia in strategic talks with China, Japan and SoKo before Aramco listing

Earnings

Chevron, Exxon Mobil reporting in the light of higher oil prices. Any surprises?

Merck

A bit of reflection…

Seems like 2-yr Trys yield is giving more than dividend yield of S&P 500 stocks on average or…

Market Euphoria May Turn to Despair If 10-Year Yield Jumps to 3%  link

Is the excess money from bond markets flowing to equities or does it mean something else?

Something like valuations are extremely high?

Number of Americans thinking about stock markets being higher in one year from now hitting multidecade records:

Well, two many too bullish…

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.79% vs 2.73% yesterday (20 bps from 3.00% mark)

30-yr Trys yield above 3.00%

Yield curve keeps flattening despite recent spike in short term yields

But 10-yrs touching 3% could help USD

Credit spreads in speculative bond space have been tightening over the past years

With lots of money flowing there, higher Trys yields may reverse flows

If US yields keep rising what in turn can send volatility waves across all markets

VIX is already trading above 10, the level that acted as a resistance for quite some time

10-yr Bund yield at 0.73% vs 0.70% yesterday

More and more EZ bond yields moving above zero level

Italy in or out?

Probability of Italy leaving EZ still elevated since Constitutional vote

ECB and Bank of Italy have a problem – holding over EUR 100 bln of debt

Once ECB stops tapering, IT bonds will suffer on the back of debt to GDP ratio being higher than pre crisis

Thus sending shock waves through periphery

Luckily, majority of the public supports more EU integration

Despite immigration and EU criticism

Parliament elections (Mar 4) to be a lose call

PIMCO: The Fed is quietly trying to engineer an inflation overshoot  link

There's been a distinct shift in currency markets that explains why the US dollar is getting hammered  link

Something strange is underway in currency markets at present…

EURUSD

Markets focussed on USD weakness and potential ECB taper, now holding pretty firm

Bids sitting below 1.2490

Stops seen above 1.2540-50, if broken we can visit highs of 1.2570 and 1.2602

To watch also 1.2597 (61.8% Fibo of 1.3992/1.0340 move)

EUR 1.1 bln options with strikes between 1.2495-1.2500 expiring today

Important 1.2516 (38.2% Fibo of 1.6038/1.0340 move)

Support 1.2398 (10 DMA), 1.2305 (23.6% Fibo) and descending trendline (highs 2008, 2011, 2014)

USDJPY

BoJ special operations helped the cross higher

Offers seen ahead of 109.75, 110.00 and stops above

Bids may be around option expiries (USD 2.3 bln strikes 109.00-35)

Support 109.45 (10 DMA), 109.06 (76.4% Fibo) and 108.12 & 107.31 lows

Resistance 110.14 (61.8% Fibo)

Crude Oil

Crude oil - US producing 10 mln barrels a day, putting enormous pressure on OPEC

But strict adherence to production cuts by OPEC and Russia support the prices

China overtaking US as a biggest crude importer

Latest correction seems not to do any harm to long speculative positions held by funds

GS upgraded Brent forecast that should hit 82.50 level by summer

Bitcoin

Well, few accounts holding huge amounts  link

 …and 13 exchanges trading 40% of the volume:

Data/events

ECB’sCoeure (1000 MGT)

ECB’s Villeroy (1400 GMT)

US NFPs

Bar high for any surprise to support USD

Payrolls 180k exp vs 148k prior

Unemployment rate 4.1% exp vs 4.1% prior

Average earnings (m/m) +0.3% exp vs +0.3% prior

Average earnings (y/y) +2.6% exp vs +2.5% prior

Strong labour market supporting consumptions

But earnings may disappoint despite minimum wage and bonus increases

If not, market will start to speculate about quicker rate hikes this year

Fed’s Kaplan (1830 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (2030 GMT)

Feb 3 – Powell taking office as Fed Chair (he is a lawyer and not economist)

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Mar 4 – Elections in Italy

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 26, 2017 - Market Update (ECB day today but should they do anything?, Turkish CB in the spotlight too, EURUSD range 1.1660-1.1860/1.1900+, Airbus-Bombardier deal a China story?, Brazil yields up on elections risk, VIX to loo for too long - recall the Aug 2015 China blow...)

Short recap

Asia flat

Europe opening flat

China going for USD denominated bonds again (first issue from 2004)

ECB day today - lots of uncertainties around QE cut back (low inflation, strong EUR vs growing economy)

Still not clear whether ECB should do it today or not

A Turkish Central Bank announcement important today

As there are speculations about Germany (EU) to cut funding for Turkey

Equities

GaxoSmithKline likely to boost their consumer health business via acquisitions

Airbus deal with Bombardier might have had more to do

With technology and production shift to China than with Boeing

As some Chinese investors were looking at Bombardier as well

Earnings

Microsoft – expecting higher revenue on cloud business

Alphabet – expecting higher revenue on mobile, YouTube, Play Store and cloud

Intel – to benefit from stable PC market and very good growth from data centers

Amazon.com – retail and cloud should help while new markets and acquisitions weight

Ford – question is how the weak sales in Europe and Chine effect the results

Planning to cut USD 14 bln and focus more trucks and electric/hybrid cars

Newmont Mining – market is looking at higher revenue on more effective production of gold

Teck Resources – expecting a nice surprise on higher prices of coal, zinc and cooper

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.43%, above technical 2.40% level

10-yr Bund yield at 0.48%

Brazil – the yields highlight upcoming volatility before next year’s presidential elections

Stocks at records highs, BRL is stable but investors are getting nervous whether new president

Will keep up with reform process

VIX

What a nice ride for all of those who bet on falling risk

But…things may change, be aware of that

As the Chinese blow out from Aug 2015 shows

What about VIX spiking again 96% ?

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

Easy hawkish surprise but difficult to sell the market dovish view

Draghi to have a hard time to talk down EUR based on ongoing price action despite higher US yields

Saw some short covering going to ECB & because of new question marks appeared around US tax reform

Markets expect dovish taper

See range of 1.1660-1.1860/1.1900+

Resistance at 1.1850 (50 DMA), 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1.1793 (10 DMA), 1.1783 (200 HMA), 1.1750/60, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Selling interest above 114.00

Huge expiring options with strikes 113.50-80 and 114.50/115.00

Bids a 113.50, more towards 113.00 with stops below

Support at 112.99 (10 DMA)

Trading around descending trendline after getting close to recent high at 114.50 from July

Gold

Taylor or Powell ? Taylor can make a hit on gold

As he favours quicker rate hikes and return back to normal

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1285 (10 DMA)

Support at 1275 (100 DMA)

Data/events

ECB (1145 & 1230 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1430 GMT)

Fri

ECB’s Praet (0715 GMT)

Trump announcing a new Fed chair

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 4, 2017 - Market Update (IBEX under pressure, China conspiracy theory, Some US companies may revise down, Monsanto facing issues with new soybeans Xtend, Buffett likes Pilot Flying, New Fed Chair speculations riding USD and Trys yields, EURUSD - a new H&S formation?, Gold found strong support at 1268)

Short recap

Japan/Hong Kong up, China/SoKo closed

Europe opening mixed

UK heading towards hard Brexit on settlement bill dispute

Likely to be much larger than UK politicians think

But 2-yr transition period helps to remove pressure from GBP

Higher USD causing USD funding issues

A China Conspiracy Theory: "What If Beijing Is Behind The Entire Move?" SocGen Asks  link

Equities

IBEX under pressure as Catalonia to declare independence in coming days

Constitutional Court likely overrun the declaration what will lead to escalation

People are in the streets and some companies stop working

Spanish king involved with “unacceptable disloyalty” as well

A bit of caution is warranted as some US companies may issue guidance revisions to the downside over the coming days

And analysts will adjust their earnings estimates accordingly

The impact of Harvey and Irma is still being evaluated

Then, let’s turn positive for seasonal rally towards Christmas unless something doesn’t happen

Few thoughts from Warren Buffett  video

Likes Pilot Flying

Monsanto to report a loss on lower commodity prices and lower income from farms

Troubles with new soybeans tolerant to herbicide also to blame

Amazon to pay EUR 400 mln of back taxes to Luxembourg

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.32% - plenty of next Fed Chair speculations pushed yields lower.

Treasury Sec Mnuchin favors Powell

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% - EZ yields lower while UK and Spain higher

Bitcoin

BlackRock’s CEO Fink – Bitcoin shows how much money laundering is being done in the world

Offers huge opportunities but presently is more speculative in nature

China’s bitcoin market alive and well as traders defy crackdown  link

As traders buy/sell bitcoin directly with each other via peer-to-peer market place and apps

All of that shows limitations of governments trying to control the market

EURUSD

Lots of ECB/Fed speakers till weekend and next Fed Chair speculations to move the market

Warsh seems to be the favorite (most hawkish, pro-USD)

If Powell is in, risk for USD

Other candidates: Yellen, Cohn, Taylor, Hubbard, Allison

Support around 1.1708/20 held, closing this week above 1.1836 can extend the USD weakness

Support at 1.1766 (Ichimoku) 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1708 (200 WMA)

Resistance at 1.1780, 1.1812 (10 DMA), 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1846 (50 DMA)

A new Head & Shoulders on EURUSD daily chart? Will see...

Let's peak back to around 1.1900

Then go lower towards 1.1450-1.1500 level...

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Market having difficulties to break 113.00 on Fed Chair/US yields

Bulls may get nervous if 113.30 not decisively broken

Resistance at 113.25

Support at 111.85 (23.6% Fibo), 112.28 (10 DMA)

Gold

Supported by weaker USD

Trump ratings heading lower, likelihood of more irrational behaviour growing

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Support at 1272 (100 DMA), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

1268 strong support (38.2% Fibo of Dec-Sep rally)

Data/events

ECB Governing Council meeting

ECB’s Draghi (1315 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1500 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (1515/1915 GMT)

Fed’s Powell

Thu

ECB Minutes

ECB’s Praet (0430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (0815 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (0910 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (0910 GMT)

Fed’s Harker (1000 GMT)

Fed’s George (1630 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs – 98k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev

Fed’s Bostic (0915 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (1145 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1215 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1300 GMT)

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 21, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC - market not a strong believer of Fed talk, EURUSD sitting at strong support 1.1870/80, Gold at crossroad between 1290-1300, UniCredit to buy Commerzbank, Apple slowing, Huawei, Oppo, Samsung speeding up, EU to redo taxation of digital world)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening higher

EU-CA free trade deal in effect starting today

EU to redo taxes on digital companies

Goldman Sachs expect USD 1 trln tax cuts (0.4% of GDP) over 10 yrs

FOMC – no change, rates 1.00-1.25%

Taper starting in Oct to get cushion for next crisis

Expecting 1 more hike this year, 3 hikes next year

Market pricing Dec hike at 66% vs pre-FOMC 46%

But market still not a strong believer in Dec hike yet

Fischer out, Yellen likely out next year want to make a point

Low inflation transitory but with question mark

BoJ – no policy change

Short term rates target at -0.1%

10-yr JGB yield target at 0%

Bond buying at JPY 80 trln annually

Who holds the most assets?

Fed 23% of GDP – on the way to trim

ECB 40% of GDP – Draghi was late to the QE party but did well

BoJ 60% of GDP – no signs of slowing…

Equities

Delphi & BlackBerry to work on self-driving cars software

Google eying HTC Corp (USD 1.1 bln)

UniCredit interested in merging with Commerzbank

New Apple watch experiencing connectivity issue

Apple slowing in innovation while Chinese rivals (Huawei & Oppo) growing on design and price

Amazon screening website for ingredients used to make bombs

Something different... Amazon is the New Tech Crash  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

EURUSD

Completed bearish outside day

Sitting slightly above the strong support zone 1.1870/80

Post-FOMC flows to show direction today

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Then 1.1837, 1.1823, 1.1808 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

If we see a consolidation 1.1600/1.1500 may be a target

Resistance at 1.1943 (10 DMA), 1.1966 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Fed moving, BoJ on hold makes bearish tone for JPY

Resistance around 112.60-70, stops above up to 113.00

Then 113.14 (23.6% Fibo)

Support found from 112.20 lower with bids starting at this level

112.31 (38.2% Fibo), 112.18 (200 DMA), descending trendline

Gold

USD and higher yields putting pressure

Rocket man and Barking dog providing support

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels

Data/events

ECB General Council meeting

ECB’s Praet (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1330 GMT)

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 15, 2017 - Market Update (US inflation surprise making Dec Fed hike a 50/50 game, Weidmann like Draghi...eyeing his job?, Oil above USD 50 a stability for US shale, GBPUSD up to 1.3500, but weak USD can push it to 1.4000 despite heavy short specs, Trump trade making US small caps rally)

Short recap

Asian in red on NoKo playing with fire again but market corrected quickly

Europe opening mixed

ECB’s Weidmann out with comments like Draghi…getting ready for his job?

Aug US inflation at 1.9%, core 1.7%, higher than expected

Bringing Dec Fed hike to 50/50 probability

But economists predict Fed pausing…

Equities

Rupert Murdoch’s takeover of Sky not a done deal yet

Nestle taking over Blue Bottle Coffee

Low commodity prices make CNOOC stop a feasibility study of a LNG terminal in BC

Oil price above USD 50 bringing stability to US shale

Upcoming Trump trade shadow and tax deal making US small caps rally

France expects other EU members to join the tax fight against online companies like Amazon, Google

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18% vs 2.19% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% vs 0.40% yesterday

GBPUSD

BoE surprisingly very hawkish yesterday, opening the door to 1.3500

If USD takes a hit after today’s retail sales, can march higher towards 1.4000

Despite heavy short specs betting on Brexit mess

Platina

In case of risk off mood, can do much better than gold

As it trades at huge discount to it

Data/events

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0815 GMT)

Sep 19-20 FOMC – not expecting anything special

Fed is on the way to start USD 10 bln tapering as of Oct 1

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 14, 2017 - Market Update (Trump maturing, ECB not in a rush to hike, DAX at crucial 12 500, Back to Trump trade?, EURUSD at support zone 1.1 870/80, Amazon.com to sell sombreros, Munich Re hit by hurricanes, Oracle in the cloud)

Short recap

Asian down on weaker Chinese data

Europe opening mixed

Trump getting more experienced (less tweeting)

And starting meeting people (like Rep/Dem leaders) to move things forward

ECB to keep a steady hand on easy policy as inflation stays very low

Chinese steel mills production reaching record highs

Bitcoin on a weak foot after JPMorgan’s Dimon fraud comment

Historically, it is not the high valuations that trigger the stock market correction but the change in macro

Thus China and credit markets holding the key

Equities

EU short of EUR 5.4 bln from taxes from Google and Facebook

DAX at 12 500 – a crucial for further development

Apple likely to face delays in iPhone X shipping going to holiday season

Amazon.com to build a huge warehouse in Mexico

Kaspersky on the way out of US gov networks

Volkswagen along with FAW, SAIC recalling 4.9 mln cars

Munich Re hit by hurricanes

Oracle reporting today, market to check how successful their cloud business is. Expecting rise in revenue.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.19% - seems comfortable within the 2.10-30 range

10-yr Bund yield at 0.40%

DXY

Can we expect a return of Trump trade? Tax reform, infrastructure and capital repatriation

All pointing to stronger economy and higher USD…

Strong support at 91.88 (2016 low), then 92.16 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 93.36 (50 DMA) and strong one at 92.74 (200 WMA)

EURUSD

Sitting at strong support zone 1.1870/80

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Next support 1.1752 (50 DMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1931 (10 DMA), 1.1940 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Trading above 110.00

Support at 110.40 (76.4% Fibo),

Resistance at 110.55 (50 DMA), 110.97 (61.8% Fibo), 111.23 (Ichimoku cloud), 111.15 (100 DMA)

Resistance comes also from rising trendline forming triangle

Gold

Gold lower on higher USD despite stocks correcting

Support around 1300 but market may be comfortable at 1315 as well

Resistance at 1333 (10 DMA)      

Data/events

ECB’s Weidmann (1530 GMT)

ECB’s Mersch (1600 GMT)

Fri

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0815 GMT)

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 8, 2017 - Market Update (North Korea/Irma - unhedged over the weekend?, Dovish Draghi but no indications, 10-yr Trys yield dipping below may bring more declines, EURUSD - 1.2000 a fair value, 1.2100 to hurt sentiment and DAX, Platina to catch up Gold rally, WTI at USD 55 unsustainable, BMW taking e-cars seriously, Amazon in a need of 2nd US HQ)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

ECB kept its policy unchanged

Draghi stayed dovish, has not offered any clear indication on what’s next

Despite strong EUR pushing inflation lower and economy doing well

Ifo head warning of next EZ crisis

Market keeps testing upside in EURUSD

North Korea (important public holiday 9.9. may be topped by another missile test) and Irma risks present – going unhedged to the weekend?

Equities

Eicher Motors interested in Ducati (USD 2 bln)

BMW firing on all cylinders to start mass production of e-cars

To compete with Tesla with 12 models by 2025

EURUSD at 1.2100 will be noticed by EZ stocks

Likely to change the sentiment, hitting DAX

An opportunity from Harvey/Irma as insurance (-12%), leisure stocks were hit yesterday

Insurance down 12%, while during Katarina declined 5% only

Hedging by S&P 500 makes sense

Amazon kicking out competition among cities in US

By announcing plans to build 2^nd HQ (USD 5 bln)

Apple likely to face supply shortage and delays in new iPhone production

Eli Lilly to cut off 8% of workforce

JPMorgan making consumer, retail and internet divisions to work closer

Best (Alibaba behind) launching IPO in US (USD 930 mln)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.04% - dipped lower in Asia trading

The dip below 2% may see more declines

10-yr Bund yield at 0.29%

Investors unloading property bonds linked to Texas (hit by hurricane Harvey)

DXY

Below 2016 low at 91.88, closing there today?

If it does, more USD weakness is likely with target around 89.00 area

Close above may confirm the lows in USD

Lower capital demand, thus growing USD supply has negative effect on USD

Trump needs to deliver (tax reform for companies to increase investments) and Fed to hike to support dollar

EURUSD

Dovish Draghi but EUR higher…

As effects of higher EUR are offset by lower yields

1.2000 is the fair value based on models

Resistance at 1.2071

Market pricing first hike in June 2019

Area between 1.1850/1.2050 may be a new playground until FOMC and next ECB

USDJPY

Breaks 2017 low at 108.12

Heading to 105/106.00

Below 108.00 level looks attractive to Japanese investors

Gold/Platina

Resistance in sight at 1375/80 (Fibo 38.2%/2016 high)

Well supported by mix of low US yields, weak USDJPY, increasing amount of bonds trading at negative yield

Raising speculative positions and option hedging

Platina can catch up the gold rally soon, as it trades at discount

Oil

Harvey hit the oil biz in US and what about Irma that is stronger?

Decline in inventories offset by decline in production and refinery demand keep the oil rally in check

But getting to unsustainable levels with WTI getting closer to USD 55

Risk of correcting to USD 50

Data/events

ECB’s Weidmann (0900 GMT)

Fed’s Harker (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Sep 29 – US debt ceiling deadline

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Aug 4, 2017 - Market Update (NFPs 183k/Earnings 0.3% expected, US yields reaction to NFPs crucial for USD, USDJPY, Gold, EURUSD above 1.1876 but below 1.1900, Siemens to build wind power plant in Turkey, Goldman Sachs buying USD 10 bln of Aramco's credit facility, Tesla - market betting heavily on Model 3 success, Trump productivity stats)

Short recap

Asian slightly higher

Europe opening lower

Russian case moving with subpoenas issued for Trump’s son and his son-in-law

A new India-China stand off in Himalaya?

Toronto home sales down 40% y/y, 4^th month of decline

Average purchase price is CAD 746k vs CAD 920k in April

Trump should speak on actions against China but the speech may be cancelled

Trump – productivity stats: In the office for 6 months, played golf for 40 days, Congress has passed 0 pieces of major legislation

Equities

Toyota and Mazda entering joint venture building of plant in US (USD 1.6 bln)

Siemens to build wind power plant in Turkey (USD 1 bln)

Seems like money talks and not NATO issues or politics in this case

Tesla up as market is betting on Model 3 success

Enbridge having some troubles with Line 3, rising costs

Goldman Sachs bought part of Aramco’s credit facility (USD 10 bln)

In a push to secure the role in Aramco’s upcoming IPO

Amazon.com spending big time in Hollywood (USD 4.5 bln)

But the profitability of such activities is still questionable

EU is targeting Visa over the fees it charges merchants for payments made  by non-EU customers within the EU

RBS moving the trading desk to Amsterdam from London

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.23% - down after BoE took no action and downgraded inflation and economic forecast

Reaction to NFPs will be very closely watched

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

DXY

According to BAML USD is not that weak as it may seem

Still 10% overvalued vs its long-term equilibrium

And 12% above its 20-year average in real effective terms

Only tax reform and better US data to help dollar

For the time being they respect market momentum until contrarian signs

Strong support zone (92.64 and 91.88) holding, weekly close crucial for further direction

Levels correspond with 1.2000 level in EURUSD

Combined with 200 WMA at 92.37 helped to support USD over the last 2 years

EURUSD

Trading steady going to NFPs

Moved above 1.1876 (low from June 2010) but stayed below 1.1900

Does it mean a correction coming?

Breaking the 1.1900 is important for bullish momentum to continue

Further resistance of 1.1200 more psychological of nature

Support 1.1768 (10 DMA), bullish bias to stay unless 10 DMA is broken

1.1786 (200 WMA) – a weekly close above?

Expiring options EUR 1 bln at 1.1850 strike

USDJPY

As weak ISM Non-manufacturing keeps pressure on USD

NFPs will be crucial for further USDJPY direction

But all will depend on US 10-yr yield reaction to payrolls anyway

Upside limited on weak USD, low US yields

Resistance 110.14 (76.4% Fibo), then 110.97 (61.8% Fibo)

Rising trendline acts as a support

Bids sitting at 109.85

Expiring options USD 1 bln at 109.45-50

Gold

Getting support from weak USD

But saw some position squaring yesterday going to NFPs today

Global demand is down 14% in H1 as the ETFs demand declined substantially

Resistance at 1274 (76.4% Fibo)

Support at 1261 (61.8% Fibo)

Ascending/descending trendline can also be of note

But US yields and USD direction crucial for further moves

Data/events

US NFPs – 183k exp vs 222k previously

Unemployment rate at 4.3% exp vs 4.4% previously

Average earnings at 0.3% exp vs 0.2% previously

Weekly jobless claims steadily falling down, thus pointing to tightening job market in US

More and more industries facing shortage of qualified labor

Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole

Draghi’s show up highly expected in the light of potential tapering

Any clues on EUR 60 bln monthly purchase being taken down o 40…or?

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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July 28, 2017 - Market Update (Bad day for Trump - no Russia sanctions, no VAT, no BAT, no Obamacare repeal, EURUSD hitting strong multiyear resistance zone, USDJPY played by expiring options today, US GDP to surprise, NASDAQ down on rotation out of Techs, Apollo rising USD 25 bln)

Short recap

Asia lower on risk off

Europe opening

Mnuchin to support steps not tough talk against FX manipulators

As it hasn’t been working for years

Senate rejected new sanctions against Russia

Not even watered down Obamacare repeal bill can pass through Senate

Another huge blow to Trump after no VAT and BAT implementation

Those two got rejected due to the need to overhaul the whole tax system in US

Equities

NASDAQ down on rotation out of Techs

Amazon hit by cost jumping

UBS cautious despite good wealth management business

Credit Suisse – profit jumps

Apollo’s new private equity fund raised USD 25 bln for investments in North America and Western Europe

Airbus not happy with delays caused by Pratt & Whitney production

Cameco settled with IRS at a fraction of original claim but heavy fight with CRA is waiting

Any correction in stocks to be triggered by upcoming tapering? The stock markets were moving higher hand in hand with QEs all around the world. What’s next?

Few facts:

Had a nice bull market rolling over the years

Market multiples above historical levels

Equities vs fixed income yield differentials are low

M&A activity hitting high

Upcoming tapering

Extremely low volatility will not last

Trump administration not able to deliver

Earnings

Earnings season so far good on weaker USD

Merck, AbbVie – to be watched as competition is rising

Exxon Mobil, Chevron – market expecting a profit print

Bombardier – cash flow, CSeries deliveries and potential joint venture with Siemens to be questioned

Baker Hughes, Barclays, Goodyear, American Airlines

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% up from 2.28% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.53% down from 0.55% yesterday

EURUSD

Down from yesterday on USD buying

Underlying tone stays pro-EUR, US GDP in watch

Support of note 1.1623/21 (10 DMA/23.6% Fibo), 1.1615, then 1.1580

100/200 HMA may also see some buying

Resistance at 1.1750, 1. 1776 (high), 1.1794 (200 WMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Sitting on 111.00 with likely dip demand around 110.80

Option expiries at 110.80 (USD 1.2 bln), 111.00 (USD 1.4 bln)

Likely to stay within the sight of expiry levels unless US GDP moves the market heavily

Lots of bids at 110.00

Gold

Durable goods orders and higher USD put pressure on gold yesterday

Traders see Fed to announce taper in Sep

Resistance at 1261 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 125 (50.0% Fibo)

10/50/100 DMAs converge to 1250 level

Data/events

US Q2 GDP +2.6% exp vs 1.4% previous

Some banks revised up expectations on the back of yesterday's much better Durable goods orders

Fed’s Kashkari (1720 GMT)

Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC 

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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July 27, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC on summer vacation, playing safe, DXY close to support levels, EURUSD close to 200 WMA (1.1794), Gold/gold miners going higher? Heavy Deutsche Bank, Facebook enjoying the ride, Cameco - weak uranium price making heavy print)

Short recap

Asia up on dovish feeling Fed (stocks, bonds and commodities up)

Europe opening flat

ECB’s Nowotny – some room to reduce asset purchase from Jan 2018 but not stopping them

EU warned US over new sanctions against Russia as energy security is on the table

UK’s Rudd promised to keep access for EU workers

UK’s car industry production down 14% in June

US New home sales still growing but at a softer pace

FOMC – on summer vacation

Market feeling a dovish bias and lower likelihood of another 2017 hike

Balance sheet reduction to start relatively soon (market expecting announcement in Sep)

Repeated that inflation to rise to 2%

But admitted undershooting of 2% target

Equities

Daimler thinking about splitting some divisions

Third Point betting on Alibaba again as they see opportunities

No new sales of petrol/diesel cars in UK from 2040

Deutsche Bank to list its asset management arm but not before late 2018

Foxconn to build a new plant in US (3000 new jobs)

AGCO buying farm equipment division from Monsanto

Earnings

Samsung pretty comfortable with chip outlook, reported a record profits

Facebook doing well in mobile ads (up 50%), while strengthening its attraction as a social media

Amazon.com – to report better revenue supported by retail and cloud. Hungry a bit? What about the Whole Foods Market acquisition – any hints?

Procter & Gamble – organic sales should help the numbers

Celgene – investors are positive, would like to learn more on licensing deal with BeiGene

Cameco – results to be impacted by still ongoing fall in uranium prices. Market may also be interest in the progress/resolution of Tepco issue?

MasterCard – investors are positive

Intel – investors are positive by data center business will scrutinized

Twitter – market is expecting a decline in revenue on user growth stagnation

Deutsche Bank – investor worry about the results as the bank undergoes restructuring, Brexit and Trump Russian ties. All of that is also combined with ECB’s investigation of Qatar royal family and Chinese HNA who are bank’s largest shareholders.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28% (up)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.55% (down)

DXY

Offered tone, sentiment getting more bearish

As cautious Fed and political mess in Washington pressure USD

Close to support levels

EURUSD

Marching higher, no clear top yet, outside day reversal

Watching: 1.1750, 1.1794 (200 WMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo) and then 1.20/2200

Likely 1.1800 will be respected as ECB to turn dovish soon too

On falling inflation and missing wage growth

So the 1.1750 and 200 WMA may be seen as the top

Support of note 1.1615, then 1.1580

USDJPY

Pressured by lower US yields, long liquidate seen

Sitting on 111.00 with likely dip demand around 110.80

Option expiries between 111.00-111.30 (more than USD 1.7 bln)

Life insurers with lower interest in foreign bonds

Has some room to get and stay above 114.00 toward year end

Gold

Resistance at 1264 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Watch also ascending and descending trendlines

As it trades above 1250 (100 DMA) we may see opportunities from a long side

Not only in spot but also in gold mining stocks

On the back of low inflation, weak USD and Trump

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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July 3, 2017 - Market Update (Trump, Xi, Abe, China-Hong Kong bond connect on, Banco Popular clean up, Buffett banking at BofA, FX markets to become very sensitive to data beats/misses, Trump to fight the steel and bank regulation at G20)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

Overall markets are still digesting last week’s movements

Low liquidity due to July 4 US Independence day holiday

Japanese PM Abe hit by the significant loss in Tokyo elections, likely to face more troubles in the future

Trump had a call with Xi and Abe discussing North Korea and pushing China on trade issues

Abe’s advisor was out with a new BoJ governor idea

US trade deficit report delayed again as Trump is getting ready to fight steel at G20

Investors lowered their exposure to US stocks on valuations

While increased EZ assets to 2yr high

US data keep disappointing, lower expectations likely to come

What may turn into new data beats

Qatar getting 2 more days to fulfill requests

China-Hong Kong bond connect up an running

Linking foreign investors with USD 9 trln Chinese bond market

Citi of London delegation on the way to Brussels

But what the welcome there would look like?

Equities

After taking over Banco Santander Banco Popular is looking to sell EUR 30 bln of nonperforming assets in order to clean up the mess on its books

BMW is testing UK as an investment destination as it moves the decision about where to build a new electric Mini car

Buffett is taking it at full speed at BofA

Deal of Nike with Amazon is a first major hit to retailers

Baidu looking at autonomy vehicles field

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33% (up from 2.28% on Friday morning)

Posted outside week

10-yr Bund yield at 0.47% (up from 0.46% on Friday morning) – on the way to reach the high from March at 51 bps?

Yields are up as markets have less worries about low inflation pressures

And see normalization of rates in Europe too

COT report

EUR longs at 59k vs 46k previous week

JPY shorts at 61k vs 50k previous week

GBP shorts at 39k vs 38k previous week

USD longs hitting 1yr low, cut by 50%

DXY

Lower summer liquidity and more sensitive market reactions to data beats/misses to be part of the game

Support at 94.70 (76.4% Fibo)

Resistance at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo)

EURUSD

USD weakness likely to continue this week too

But getting way over 1.1600 not sustainable

Trading right below strong resistance from descending trendline  and 1.1495 & 1.1615

If broken we can eventually get ready for a move towards 1.2000/1.2500

With first target at 1.1714 (1.1750)

Getting through 1.1450 will help us to look at 1.1580

USDJPY

USJDPY lagging higher yields

But staying resilient after Abe’s Tokyo defeat

Breaking 112.92 can open the door to 114.36

Support at 112.24 (61.8% Fibo),

Resistance at 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)

Gold

Suffering from CBs upcoming normalization

Support at 1233 (200 DMA) and 1214

Resistance at 1245 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/Events

Fed’s Bullard (0830 GMT)

July 5 – FOMC minutes

July 6 – ECB Minutes

Fed’s Williams speaking

July 7 – US NFPs

July 7 – Fed to publish its semi-annual report on mon pol (1500 GMT)

July 7/8 – G20 meeting

Trump meeting Putin while Merkel hosting them

Trump readying for a steel fight and withdraw from international talks on financial regulation

July 12 – Yellen testifying before Congress (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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