Short recap
Asian slightly higher
Europe opening lower
Russian case moving with subpoenas issued
for Trump’s son and his son-in-law
A new India-China stand off in Himalaya?
Toronto home sales down 40% y/y, 4th
month of decline
Average purchase price is CAD 746k vs CAD 920k in April
Trump should speak on actions against China
but the speech may be cancelled
Trump – productivity stats: In the office for 6
months, played golf for 40 days, Congress has passed 0 pieces of major
legislation
Equities
Toyota and Mazda entering joint venture
building of plant in US (USD 1.6 bln)
Siemens to build wind power plant in Turkey (USD 1
bln)
Seems like money talks and not NATO issues or politics in
this case
Tesla up as market is betting on Model 3 success
Enbridge having some troubles with Line 3, rising
costs
Goldman Sachs bought part of Aramco’s
credit facility (USD 10 bln)
In a push to secure the role in Aramco’s upcoming IPO
Amazon.com spending big time in Hollywood (USD 4.5
bln)
But the profitability of such activities is still
questionable
EU is targeting Visa over the fees it charges
merchants for payments made by non-EU customers within the EU
RBS moving the trading desk to Amsterdam from
London
Bonds
10-yr Trys yield at 2.23% - down after BoE took no
action and downgraded inflation and economic forecast
Reaction to NFPs will be very closely watched
10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%
DXY
According to BAML USD is not that weak as it may seem
Still 10% overvalued vs its long-term equilibrium
And 12% above its 20-year average in real effective terms
Only tax reform and better US data to help dollar
For the time being they respect market momentum until
contrarian signs
Strong support zone (92.64 and 91.88) holding, weekly
close crucial for further direction
Levels correspond with 1.2000 level in EURUSD
Combined with 200 WMA at 92.37 helped to support USD over
the last 2 years
EURUSD
Trading steady going to NFPs
Moved above 1.1876 (low from June 2010) but stayed below
1.1900
Does it mean a correction coming?
Breaking the 1.1900 is important for bullish momentum to
continue
Further resistance of 1.1200 more psychological of nature
Support 1.1768 (10 DMA), bullish bias to stay unless 10
DMA is broken
1.1786 (200 WMA) – a weekly close above?
Expiring options EUR 1 bln at 1.1850 strike
USDJPY
As weak ISM
Non-manufacturing keeps pressure on USD
NFPs will be
crucial for further USDJPY direction
But all will depend
on US 10-yr yield reaction to payrolls anyway
Upside limited on weak USD, low US yields
Resistance 110.14 (76.4% Fibo), then 110.97 (61.8% Fibo)
Rising trendline acts as a support
Bids sitting at 109.85
Expiring options USD 1 bln at 109.45-50
Gold
Getting support from weak USD
But saw some position squaring yesterday going to NFPs
today
Global demand is down 14% in H1 as the ETFs demand
declined substantially
Resistance at 1274 (76.4% Fibo)
Support at 1261 (61.8% Fibo)
Ascending/descending trendline can also be of note
Data/events
US NFPs – 183k exp vs 222k previously
Unemployment rate at 4.3% exp vs 4.4% previously
Average earnings at 0.3% exp vs 0.2% previously
Weekly jobless
claims steadily falling down, thus pointing to tightening job market in US
More and more
industries facing shortage of qualified labor
Aug 24-26 Jackson
Hole
Draghi’s show up
highly expected in the light of potential tapering
Any clues on EUR 60
bln monthly purchase being taken down o 40…or?
Sep 7 - ECB
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where
despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment
advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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