Feb 12, 2017 - Weekly Macro W7 (OPEC monthly report, China, UK and US Inflation, Yellen testifies)

Last week equity markets rallied on Trump’s tax promises and oil prices jumped on IEA Monthly Report as OPEC members cut production in January more or less as agreed. Therefore the OPEC report on Monday will likely have only minor impact unless reveals some important details. The first half of the week will be about GDPs from Japan, German and EZ as well as about inflation from China, UK and US. On Thursday and Friday we have the first bunch of US housing market figures. During the week some Fed speakers will also take the stage but the most important will be Yellen’s testimonies. Investors are also following the events in Washington as analysts are more and more concerned about the ability of Trumps team to push his reforms through.

Monday

Well we will start already late Sunday with Japanese quarterly GDP which is expected to rise 0.3% in Q4. With no specific date and time this week should be released the Chinese FDIs for January along with New Loans and M2 Money Supply. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market report is also scheduled for Monday, but as mentioend probably with limited impact unless surprising details will be released. Also the German central banks BUBA monthly report will be released at GMT 11:00. The report can cause some volatility in EUR crosses if it would support the rumours about a potential ECB tapering this year.  

Tuesday

It will be busiest day of the week. After midnight we have Chinese inflation which expect higher again. Especially the PPI is accelerating in the recent months that will potentially help to boost inflation in Europe and US, however the Yuan needs to stay stable. In the European morning the preliminary German GDP may add some volatility. On 12th January the Federal Statistics Office already projected growth rate for Q4 at 0.5% and for full year 2016 at 1.9% both better than analysts’ expectations. However the first firm data for Q4 will be released now and it still needs to confirm the January estimate. Three hours later the EZ GDP will be released (with ZEW Eco Sentiment) and no change in the pace of growth is expected. The UK CPI is accelerating quite rapidly and it doesn’t show any sign of cooling down and analysts expect another increase. This may force the BoE to start to think more hawkish even the current account is still close to record deficit. In the afternoon US PPI will have moderate impact as the market will be waiting for Yellen’s semi-annual Monetary Policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Don‘t forget the API oil stocks in the evening even after the OPEC report could have less importance.

Wednesday

The UK Office of National Statistics will release the Labour Market Economic commentary with avg. Earnings, jobless claims and unemployment rate and minimum or no change is forecasted by the analytics. And that‘s all for the European morning so far while the afternoon will be busy in the US. After lunch time the US CPI, Retails Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index will be released. Little later we have US Capacity Utilisation Rate (something closely followed by Fed) and Industrial Production.  Janet Yellen will continue his semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. EIA Weekly Crude Inventories will be the last important data of the day, however as API, probably less important after the Monday OPEC report.

Thursday

Australia will be in focus after midnight as the Labour Force stats will be released. The unemployment rate started to rise recently which was kind of a surprise for the market and definitely not a good sign. However with the increasing industrial metal prices and recovery in mining sector this uptick could be temporary. Let’s see.  At lunchtime we have the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, which could shed some light on the future policy direction, especially with the rumours about the possible tapering this year.  US housing will be in focus in the afternoon. The Building Permits are expected to decline while the number of Housing Starts should increase slightly. Both annualized numbers are more or less stable around 50% of the pre-crisis levels. The deregulation promised by Trump should help to boost also the housing sector, but the question is if it‘s really needed ... to create another housing bubble. The Mortgage Bankers Association should publish the percentage of Mortgages that are one or more payments late. US Mortgage delinquencies is a very important indicator of the health of the housing market and we don’t have the exact date and time of release. The indicator is declining since 2010 and the number reported in November is lower than it was during 2007 when the problems in the housing market started to materialize. In the evening the New Zealand retail sales are due and it will be watched closely after the last week’s dovish RBNZ statement.

Friday

The last day of the week will be a quiet one. We have EZ Current account in the morning which expanded much more than market expected in November. For December a slightly lower number is forecasted. Later the UK retail sales will be released and after last month surprise drop now positive number is expected btw 1-1.2%. In the afternoon CAD traders may experience some volatility as Domestic Security Purchases by foreigners will be released by Statistics Canada. The last figure of the week will be the CB leading index which is a combination of 10 economic indicators, will be published and no change is expected. As most of the indicators are known already, no major impact is expected.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Feb 5, 2017 - Weekly Macro W6 (RBA and RBNZ rate decisions, trade balance Ger, UK, US, CA, China and IEA Oil Report)

The coming week won’t be boring at all and there are plenty of events to follow. First of all we have the RBA and the RBNZ rate decisions. Despite no change is expected in MPs  we will get a hint how policy makers see the economy in the light of recent development (new US policy, metal rally stalling etc.). We have plenty of trade balance figures, most importantly Germany, UK, US and Chinese trade data. The oil traders will be on alert as after the regular weekly API and EIA oil stocks we have on Friday the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report (and Monthly OPEC report on Monday).

Monday

After midnight the Australian Retail sales will be released. After the huge volatility in 2009-2010 the growth has stabilized in the range between -0.1% and 0.7% last year with only one negative month. Later the session the Chinese Caixin Services PMI could be a market mover after last weeks disappointing manufacturing figures. The German Factory Orders will kick start the European session which fell rapidly in January more or less in line with the seasonal pattern. Analysts expect a modest rise btw 0.5-0.6%. In the afternoon the Feds' Labor market Conditions index will be released but as the components are already known, only minor effect is expected. The US Mortgage Deliquencies will be published this week, but no date or time is known yet. The indicator is declining since 2010 and no major change is expected.

Tuesday

Pretty busy day ahead starting with RBA rate decision. The central bank is in a rather difficult situation given the strengthening AUD and overheated housing market. While industrial metals has seen a bit of a rally at the end of last year which definitely helps the economy, the booming housing market can cause problems in the medium term. Although Gov. Lowe is not really keen to join the QE race, the Rate Statement will give us a picture how the policymakers see the current developments. European morning will be quiet with only French trade balance and UK monthly HPI. Canadian trade balance will be released in the afternoon. Last month it reached positive levels for the first time since 2015 and further rise is expected. US JOLTS labour market summary will be released in the afternoon, but only minor impact is expect given the current cycle of the US job market. As the first oil report of the week the API oil stocks will give us a hint if the rising trend in inventories continues. The GDT dairy price index from New Zealand will be released during the evening but ahead of RBNZ rate decision, I expect only minor impact unless there is a huge surprise.

Wednesday

We can have a little rest in the middle of the week as the European morning is almost empty. Keep in mind that Chinese trade data and FDIs can be released anytime in the second half of the week. The afternoon could be interesting for Loonie traders as we have housing starts from Canada and later on the EIA Crude inventories.  The evening will be busy for Kiwi traders as the RBNZ is scheduled to deliver its rate decision with MP statement, followed by the RBNZ News conference an hour later.

Thursday

Chinese trade data and FDIs could be released in the morning if not released a day before. At the early Asian session New Home Sales from Australia will give us an insight in the housing market. A few minutes later the RBNZs governor Wheeler is due to testify on MP before the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee in Wellington. The European morning session is empty on the data front and the first important data will come from overseas, namely the Canadian house price index and the US jobless claims.

Friday

Again, keep in mind Chinese data could be released if it not happened the previous days. The RBA Monetary Policy Statement will be published which will be likely in line with the rate decision statement, just with a little more details, still could have impact on AUD crosses. The most important data of the European morning will be the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report, which will give us a hint how the OPEC report may look like on Monday. The members of the cartel participating in the agreement claimed repeatedly they take the cut seriously, however it would be for the first time that there will fail to deliver on their promises. Let’s see… We have also an Extraordinary EU Summit from which rumours may eventually hit the market during the whole day. In the afternoon the Canadian job report and the result of the Consumer Confidence Survey done by University of Michigan may be the main market movers.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Jan 29, 2017 - Weekly Macro W5

The coming week will be very busy and not only on the central bank front. We have BoJ Fed and BoE plus the Chinese PMIs which is considered being a leading indicator to the global growth. The end of the week will be about the US employment figures which can always move the market so be ready.... 

Monday

The first important data is the German CPI especially after speculation about eventual tapering appeared some time ago. Most of the analyst expect the CPI to rise to 2% year on year from 1.7% despite the expected monthly deceleration of -0.6%. In the afternoon the US data will be in the focus starting with Core PCE index and Personal spending, both expected the increase modestly. Later the afternoon US Pending Home Sales could spread some light on the housing market. Despite analyst expect growth between 0.5 and 1.6% I’m a little skeptical about any increase as historically January did not bring positive number in the past 5 years except last year. Let’s see...

Tuesday

We start with BoJ rate decision and monetary policy during Asian session, but no change is expected. However as always if there is a press conference that could add to volatility. After European open we have German Retail sales expected to rise modestly followed by ECB Draghi’s opening speech at joint conference of ECB and EC. In the afternoon loonie traders should keep an eye on Canadian monthly GDP and Raw Material Price Index both of them expected to increase. Later afternoon the Chicago PMI and CB Consumer confidence and while PMI is expected to rise the Consumer confidence should decline moderately after the last month jump. The oil currencies should be sensitive to the API Crude Oil Stock report in the evening. We finish the day with New Zealand labor market statistics where a moderate improvement is expected.

Wednesday

It’s a PMI morning and FOMC afternoon. At the beginning of the day we have very important PMIs from China and as these are kind of leading indicators to global growth, should be watched carefully (or at least traders should adjust position size due to gap risk). Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline slightly despite the improving Chinese figures. During European morning we have plenty of European manufacturing PMIs from Spain, Italy, France the Eurozone and the UK and most cases no change or slight decline is expected, but all should hold around 53-56 zone. In the afternoon we will focus on US, especially ADP Employment change and ISM Manufacturing PMIs. In the evening FOMC rate decision and Monetary policy statement without press conference, could add volatility although no significant change is expected in MP. However given the seemingly fragile dollar strength we could experience some fireworks.

Thursday

We will begin the day with Australian Trade balance and Building approvals. As both being very important part of the economy they will be crucial in assessing the next possible move of the RBA. The central bank is in a hold and wait mood after the last rate cut and the leadership change, the next meeting scheduled for February. The European morning will be about the United Kingdom as BoE will release Inflation report, Benchmark Rate and Monetary policy summary. No changes are expected but the volatility will likely increase in pound crosses, especially be ready during Carneys‘ speech. In the afternoon we will have another set of US job market data, most important Jobless Claims and Productivity. The increasingly tight labor market will sooner or later lead to increased wages and this will not add to the productivity. Don’t forget, this is still a key concern of FOMC.

Friday

Markit’s Chinese Manufacturing PMI will kick start the last day of this busy week. Likely there is only minor impact as it’s released few days after the official PMIs unless it would bring a huge surprise as it’s expected to hold at or near previous level. During the first half of the European session UK Services PMI can move the GBP crosses. If the PMI will increase this would be the fourth consecutive growth. This would mean the Service sector is much more relaxed about the UK leaving the EU despite the threat of London losing its European financial center status. The US employment situation report will be released in the afternoon with NFP, Average hourly earnings and Unemployment rate. We need to see here stability in NFP and increasing wages helping inflation to pick up, nothing more to add here. We will end the week with ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Factory orders and while PMI is expected to decline moderately, the factory orders should pick up after the drop in the data from November.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent.

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Jan 22, 2017 - Weekly Macro W4 (PMIs, CPIs, GDPs, and UK Supreme Court ruling on triggering Article 50)

We have plenty of interesting data next week among other PMIs, CPIs, GDPs and US housing. However Brexit could steal the headlines again as the UK Supreme Court is due to decide whether the government may use Royal Prerogative to trigger Article 50. The ongoing earnings season is also worth to watch with a lot of big names among others McDonald's, Banco Santander, Alibaba, Alphabet, UBS, Microsoft and many others. Investors will also follow closely first days of Donald Trump in the office as he promised many radical steps right from the start of his presidency.

Monday

Japan will kick-start the week with Industrial activity and Leading Economic index. Both of minor importance but as beginning of the week is usually “data-free”, there could be some moves sparked by these. In the afternoon we have Canadian Wholesale Sales, but as it is quite volatile indicator, only a big surprise may have significant impact. If you would consider to keep positions open O/N don’t forget about Mr. Draghi in the evening speaking in Italy.

Tuesday

It’s going to be a PMI day starting with Japan, then France, Germany and EZ and in the afternoon US PMIs but as last week the Brexit will be in the spotlights. Very important will be the UK Supreme Court Brexit ruling about the government appeal against the High Court ruling which blocked the Royal Prerogative being used to trigger Article 50. If the Supreme Court ruling blocks the RP, this would mean that Ms. May will have to leave the decision about triggering Article 50 for the parliament. In extreme situation that could turn Brexit into Bremain … so be ready for eventual fireworks. In the afternoon US Existing Home Sales which last month hit more than 6 years high and it’s definitely a positive sign. The analysts forecast a slight seasonal drop which wouldn’t however mean reversal of the positive trend. In the evening the first of the regular Crude reports. The API Crude oil stock could move the Crude and oil currency crosses like CAD, NOK.

Wednesday

We start the day with Australian consumer inflation (CPI) after midnight. The quarterly data ticked up recently and this could mean a challenge for the RBA aiming to boost the economy and curb the housing bubble the same time. Analyst doesn’t expect any major change but a surprise could easily move AUD crosses both directions. In Europe, the German Ifo Business Climate will be released in the morning and actually the index is higher than it was in 2007-2008, just before the crises. Germans seems to be optimistic despite the risk on the horizon: Britain out, Trump in … and elections all over Europe where the traditional parties will be challenged by anti-establishment forces. However business leaders in Europe’s strongest economy do not seem to care. In the afternoon, we have EIA Crude inventories and later the evening, CPI from New Zealand which is still stubbornly low.

Thursday

We will not have anything from Asia and the first notable data will be the Spanish Unemployment that could be much more closely watched given the speculations about eventual ECB tapering. Unemployment rate in Spain dropped in October below 20% but analysts don’t expect further decline. Definitely the weak euro helps the southern countries to boost their economies. Later in the morning, we will get the UK Prelim GDP figures with minor monthly slowdown expected. The afternoon will be about the US, most important data weekly Unemployment Claims (which probably can’t go much lower, although the employment rate is still 5% below the highs in 2000) and the New Home Sales (which is in stable uptrend despite a few weaker months recently). Around midnight the Statistics Bureau of Japan will release national and Tokyo Core CPI which is declining from 2015 – one of the major problems of the BoJ.

Friday

For comparison the BoJ will release its own Core CPI and even though this indicator is not sub-zero the downtrend in the rate of price level change seems to be very strong. The main data of the day is the first estimate of the US growth. The US Advance GDP will show whether the surprisingly good figure from last quarter was a one-time shot or the economy is accelerating much stronger than most of the analysts predicted at the beginning of the last year. At the same time we have Durable Goods Orders number which is expected to stabilise around 0.5%. As the last significant data will be the results of the consumer survey provided by the University of Michigan, it has several components, but the most watched is Consumer Sentiment. As the optimism of US consumers skyrocketed after Donald Trump won the presidential election, the indicator is expected to hold close to its maximum levels. 

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Jan 15, 2017 - Weekly Macro W3 (BoC and ECB rate decisions, China GDP and Trump inauguration)

After a sleepy Monday we will have some important bank earnings and we start this week the regular central bank meetings too. From US bank earnings worth to mention among others  Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. From Central banks we have Bank of Canada and ECB rate decisions and we finish the week with Chinese GDP and with US presidential inauguration boycotted by 23 democrats.

MONDAY

Another easy Monday ahead of us. We have practically nothing on the calendar except a few light-weight data from Europe in the morning (UK HPI and EZ Trade Balance) and BOEs governor Mark Carneys’ speech in the evening. It will be Martin Luther King Day in US, so expect lower liquidity

TUESDAY

The World Economic Forum will take place 17-20 January in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. The UK inflation (CPI, PPI, HPI) will kick-start the morning in Europe where another increase is expected in line with the rising trend. The Cable was under pressure recently due to the foggy Brexit plans of the governments. This will be followed by the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which was unchanged but analyst expect now a 5 point improvement. During the day Theresa May is scheduled to speak in London about triggering Article 50 although the time is not announced yet. According to Livesquawk’s tweet, it supposed to be a “Major Brexit Speech”… so let’s see. In the afternoon the Empire State Manufacturing index may move the USD. The index is struggling to break above 10 point level and given the uncertainty around the new president the analysts don’t expect it to break the lvl. Later the night GDT price index will be released, which could add some volatility to the NZD crosses.

WEDNESDAY

The day will be pretty packed with data starting with UK Employment in the morning and from the set of UK data probably the Average earnings is the key as inflation is in focus given of BoE. The claimant count change was between +/- 10k during last 1.5 year and not expected bring any big surprise out of this range, expectation is around +4k. The final CPI in EZ will be released an hour later, and no change is expected compared to prelim figures. In the US inflation figures a moderate increase in CPI and no change on core data is expected. The markets may react also on

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization figures 45 mins later. The event of the day will be the Canadian rate decision, MP statement and the following Press Conference. Despite the pick-up in the oil prices the key problem remains in housing market and the relations with US during Trump. The BoC will probably choose a hold and wait strategy this time. In the evening we have the Feds Beige Book and Yellen speaking in San Francisco. Also don’t forget that the API Oil Stock will be released a day later on Wednesday due to M.L. Kings day.

THURSDAY

The Australian employment figures will come out during early Asian session. The rise of Employment is expected to slow down after a surprise jump last month while unemployment should be steady at 5.7%. The calendar looks pretty empty at the European morning, but the big shot will come in the afternoon, starting with the ECB rate decision followed by the press conference in 45mins. The same time as it start we will get Canadian Manufacturing Sales and the US  Building Permits, Philly manufacturing index and US jobless claims so GMT 1:30 PM rather be in front of you monitor. The EIA will report Crude inventories as the last significant data of the day.

FRIDAY

Fed chair Yellen will speak after midnight at the Stanford Institute but the main volatility booster of the day could be the Chinese GDP & Industrial Production but no or minor change is expected only. The UK retail sales is scheduled for the mid European morning and a slight decline is expected. In the Afternoon Canadian CPI and Retails Sales may add to the volatility. In the evening also watch out for the regular oil rig count from Baker Hughes. The last event of the week is the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president and more and more Democrats pledge to boycott the presidential inauguration. There are also plenty of demonstration planned for the whole week protesting against Trump as president.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Jan 9, 2017 - Weekly Macro W2

After a quiet year-end we started the New Year in a pretty busy tone. The solid employment report on Friday helped to support equities and USD. The first full trading week ahead with less data. Some of them, however, could be key market movers. Especially Chinese inflation and Trade balance, UK Manufacturing and Industrial production and US Unemployment, Retail Sales and PPI could be volatility boosters. 

MONDAY

The first day is typically not very packed with data but Aussie traders should be watching Australian housing figures. The Building Approvals were falling the last 2 months indicating a cooling housing market. The housing boom was one of key concerns of policy makers in RBA. Later the day the house price index from the UK and European Unemployment figures may move the market. The later is expected to hold below 10%. The Earnings season will start too with Alcoa reporting its results after US close at 5 PM. Beware equity indices could move in the next weeks as investors responding to some big surprises. 

TUESDAY

We start again with Australia, the Retail Sales will be released after midnight and it will be interesting to watch whether it will hold around recent 0.5% growth levels. More important will be however the Chinese inflation released an hour later. The trends in CPI and PPI are positive and growth is expected to maintain (Consumers) or even accelerate (Producers). The US Job openings will add additional colour to the US job market picture which seems to reached full employment according to data from last few months. The Crude report from API will be important regarding the real supply situation on the oil market, as reports shows a lot of tankers were waiting for unloading during last week of the year.     

WEDNESDAY

Quiet Asian session is expected and we will get probably first volatility booster only after Europe opens. UK Manufacturing and Industrial production will be released, both of them recorded significant declines despite the weak pound. A rebound is expected but if the result will disappoint we can see pound weakness in all the crosses. In the afternoon the EIA Crude inventories will again be watched closely by oil traders as we need to see how much of the black gold was hold unloaded, to get the real supply picture. The Crude price is at breakeven levels where most of the producers are already profitable and Money Managers hold huge long positions in both WTI and Brent. Rig counts are also increasing gradualy so keep an eye on this report, as a significant increase in the inventories with Commodity Index rebalancing this week may result in moves to the downside.

   

THURSDAY

The ANZ Commodity Price Index will kick off the Asian session which could be a mover for both NZD and AUD. Despite these are NZ figures, mining is an important part of the industry in both countries. The European Morning will be rather boring, after lunch we have ECB minutes which is expected to be a non-event. From overseas we have Canadian house prices which keep rising (housing bubble is one of the key problems of the economy) and US unemployment claims where given the state of job market we don’t expect any big change. The same time are scheduled two Fed speakers, so there could come some unexpected volatility even after the data.

FRIDAY

At midnight Yellen is due to speak in Washington DC which could cause sudden moves given the low liquidity at the beginning of the Asian session. We expect Chinese Trade balance later the day, time not scheduled yet. Here we need a good number to confirm investors’ confidence put in the Chinese economy in the recent weeks. The afternoon could be particularly interesting with US Core Retail sales and PPI data as well as 1.5 hour later Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Dec 18, 2016 - Weekly Macro Overview - BoJ and GDPs will be the main topics before Christmas

A pre-Christmas week ahead of us and more and more traders will be on holidays already or just involved in preparation for the Christmas. Therefore low liquidity and unpredictible changes in volatility are expected. We are coming to the end of “December  Rate Decision Season” however, we still have BoJ  and couple of GDPs ahead duering the coming week so it doesn’t look boring at all.

Monday:

We will start the week with ANZ Business Confidence which was declining 2 month in a row. From broader perspective the Q is if the overall uptrend can regain momentum. The German Ifo Business Climate survey is the most important data of the day and is close to its all-time highs. The consensus expects further modest gains this time as overall optimism is on the rise.

Tuesday:

The RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes as it was a non-event shouldn’t cause too much volatility as market is waiting for the BoJ rate decision and MP statement. This however is also expected to be a non-event as the weak yen is what the BoJ wanted, and its reality now also the 10y govie yields are rising which is the new goal for the central bank. The rest of the day be event free, except the weekly API Crude Oil Stock which will be important for CAD and NOK traders. Later the GDP Dairy Price Index from New Zealand can add to the volatility, the country being the 5^th biggest dairy exporter of the world this price index shows how a significant part of the country will perform in the near future.

Wednesday:

The Asian session should be quiet and the first data worth to watch is the UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, which is expected to rise significantly in November. The afternoon we have US Existing Home Sales which is in modest uptrend but according to the positive news from the housing industry I expect another increase despite the consensus see a slight decline to come. EIA Crude Oil Inventories are scheduled for the afternoon and expect the inventories to rise due to the year end and tax optimisation from refineries. This could bring further pressure on crude prices after the post-OPEC optimism seems to be fading last week. The New Zealand Q3 GDP will be important for kiwi traders which got under pressure with aussie following the appreciation of the USD. The growth in New Zealand is the highest among developed countries but the main driver of growth was recently the housing boom which could be fading recently. Let’s see.

Thursday:

The day will start in the afternoon with Canadian Core CPI (November) and Core Retail Sales (for October). Both very important as repeatedly failing to confirm the optimism of analysts. The same time we will have a bunch of data from US, Durable Goods Orders, Final GDP and Jobless Claimsfrom which the Final GDP release will be the most important following the surprise jump in the previous release when despite pessimistic expectations growth jumped above 3%.

Friday:

Last trading day before Christmas will be most probably quiet with subdued liquidity. In the morning the UK Current account and Final GDP will be the most important data points. The afternoon the Canadian GDP m/m could bring some change into the holiday mood followed by the US New Home Sales and revision of UoM Consumer Sentiment. The only advice from me is to manage your risk with position saying as unexpected moves and gap risk will be high as most of the market will be already on vacation.

Always remember to watch your risk and be consistent.

Mr Tech Man

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Dec 10, 2016 - Weekly Macro W50 (Chinese industrial data, FOMC, SNB, BoE rate decisions)

After the last week when all central banks acted in line with expectations investors and traders are expecting Fed to raise its benchmark rate by 25 bps as economic data keep improving and the outlook for more fiscal stimulus will increase the inflationary pressures in the coming years. We will have also SNB and BoE rate decisions during the week and both are expected to stay on hold but analysts are curious how the central bankers assess the current conditions.  Chinese investment and industrial data as well as Japanese industry data will be coming out during the week with tentative dates and times.

Monday:

It‘s going to be another “lazy Monday” with very few data. In the early morning the Japanese Tertiary Industrial Activity will be released which represents practically the Service sector. The last 2 releases were at zero or slightly lower and the consensus expects a little increase in October data. The FDI in China will be release this week but we have no exact date or time. The US Federal Budget Balance will also be watched by Republicans in the light of the planned fiscal expansion in the US, mostly which is responsible for the current “Trump rally”. There are concerns that the space for increased fiscal spending will be limited due to raising interest rates in the coming years.

Tuesday:

We start the day with the quarterly index of home prices in 8 state capitals of Australia, where the analyst expect a 2% jump after the slight decline in the second quarter. This will be followed by the Chinese Industrial and Fixed Asset Investments, in both cases no change is expected as both are in kind of consolidation phase. We will start the European session with some inflation data, first will be Germany where no change is expected in both monthly and annual data, followed by the UK CPI expected to rise and UK PPI which is expected to fall. Later in the morning the German Zew Sentiment index is scheduled and it is expected to jump confirming the better economic outlook. In the afternoon US import prices may cause minor rise of volatility but the effect will be muted given the expected FOMC rate decision next day.

Wednesday:

It will be the Fed rate decision day so expect low liquidity as market is waiting for the results from the 2-day FOMC meeting. The European morning will be however, busy for pound traders as UK job data will be released. We will look at the UK Jobless Claims which is expected to decline, and the Unemployment Rate along with the Average earnings, both expected to stay unchanged. In afternoon the volatility could be increased by the US Core Retail Sales and US Core PPI, as market participants may adjust their positions after the data release ahead of the rate decision. A little later we have US industrial production and Capacity Utilization rate with minor effect expected. As the Non-OPEC countries lead by Russia agreed during the WE to follow the cartel and cut production by 600 barrels a day, the crude got some support from these news. The regular EIA Crude oil report scheduled for Wednesday afternoon may add some more momentum to the rally, but be careful as the supply glut is still a reality and as the prices rise, more and more rigs will be reopened. The last big event of the day and probably also in 2016 will be the FOMC meeting. Can we expect any bad surprise from Yellen and team? The probability of a 25 bps rate hike to 0.75% level is around 95% in other words it is widely expected. The good US data, the rise in bond yields as well as inflation expectations and a bullish stock markets, all these factors seem to be supporting the case. Please read more about the event in this article from my colleague Mr Hawk link .

Thursday

We will start early Asian session with Aussie job figures. The employment growth is slowing down since May 2016. A negative trend behind the data is the increasing share of part time employment which jumped from 31.1% to 32% in October. Therefore the stable unemployment rate at 5.6% couldn’t be considered positive in these circumstances. Hopefully the rising base material prices will help to revive the mining industry, which may help to change this negative trend. The Swiss National Bank will announce its monetary policy and key benchmark rate in the European morning at the same time with German PMI followed by the Eurozone PMI figures. Both regions experienced an increase in sentiment during the last months but no huge jump is expected. According to analysts the surprise spike in UK Retail sales was rather a one-time event and the consensus is for stabilization instead. The week pound however could give some support before the Christmas. The BoE will announce its rate decision and assessment of the economy at lunchtime. The Benchmark rate is not expected to be changed as the bank needs to keep some gun powder dry ahead of triggering the Article 50 and the start of the formal talks about the Brexit conditions. However the Monetary policy statement will tell us how the policy makers see the shape of the British economy. In the afternoon the US inflation, Jobless Claims and Philly and NY Manufacturing PMIs may increase the volatility along with Canadian Manufacturing sales, the later for the CAD crosses. A less followed but interesting housing market indicator will be release later afternoon, the NAHB housing market index which is a leading indicator of the construction sector. After a surprise jump in the summer the index is slowly declining and no change is expected ahead of Christmas.

Friday

The last day of the week will be rather boring as the market will be digesting the events of the week and waiting for next weeks‘ BoJ rate decision. The Final European CPI numbers however may move the markets in the morning. In the afternoon the US housing data will add some volatility as some leading indicators will be release, namely the Building permits and Housing starts. In both cases we saw a positive surprise in the last month however despite the overall optimism after Trump's presidential victory, the economists expect a slight decline.

Always remember to watch your risk and be consistent.

Mr Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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