The coming week won’t be boring at all and there are
plenty of events to follow. First of all we have the RBA and the RBNZ rate
decisions. Despite no change is expected in MPs we will get a hint how policy
makers see the economy in the light of recent development (new US policy, metal rally stalling etc.). We have plenty of trade balance
figures, most importantly Germany, UK, US and Chinese trade data. The oil
traders will be on alert as after the regular weekly API and EIA oil stocks we
have on Friday the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report (and Monthly OPEC report on
Monday).
Monday
After midnight the Australian Retail sales will be
released. After the huge volatility in 2009-2010 the growth has stabilized in
the range between -0.1% and 0.7% last year with only one negative month. Later
the session the Chinese Caixin Services PMI could be a market mover after last
weeks disappointing manufacturing figures. The German Factory Orders will kick
start the European session which fell rapidly in January more or less in line
with the seasonal pattern. Analysts expect a modest rise btw 0.5-0.6%. In the afternoon the Feds' Labor market Conditions index will be released but as the components are already known, only minor effect is expected. The
Tuesday
Pretty busy day ahead starting with RBA rate decision.
The central bank is in a rather difficult situation given the strengthening AUD
and overheated housing market. While industrial metals has seen a bit of a
rally at the end of last year which definitely helps the economy, the booming
housing market can cause problems in the medium term. Although Gov. Lowe is not
really keen to join the QE race, the Rate Statement will give us a picture how
the policymakers see the current developments. European morning will be quiet
with only French trade balance and UK monthly HPI. Canadian trade balance will
be released in the afternoon. Last month it reached positive levels for the
first time since 2015 and further rise is expected. US JOLTS labour market
summary will be released in the afternoon, but only minor impact is expect
given the current cycle of the US job market. As the first oil report of the
week the API oil stocks will give us a hint if the rising trend in inventories
continues. The GDT dairy price index from New Zealand will be released during
the evening but ahead of RBNZ rate decision, I expect only minor impact unless
there is a huge surprise.
Wednesday
We can have a little rest in the middle of the week as
the European morning is almost empty. Keep in mind that Chinese trade data
and FDIs can be released anytime in the second half of the week. The afternoon could
be interesting for Loonie traders as we have housing starts from Canada and
later on the EIA Crude inventories. The
evening will be busy for Kiwi traders as the RBNZ is scheduled to deliver its
rate decision with MP statement, followed by the RBNZ News conference an hour
later.
Thursday
Chinese trade data and FDIs could be released in the
morning if not released a day before. At the early Asian session New Home Sales
from Australia will give us an insight in the housing market. A few minutes
later the RBNZs governor Wheeler is due to testify on MP before the Finance and
Expenditure Select Committee in Wellington. The European morning session is
empty on the data front and the first important data will come from overseas,
namely the Canadian house price index and the US jobless claims.
Friday
Again, keep in mind Chinese data could be released if it
not happened the previous days. The RBA Monetary Policy Statement will be published which will be likely in line with the rate decision statement, just
with a little more details, still could have impact on AUD crosses. The most
important data of the European morning will be the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report, which will give us a hint how the OPEC report may look like on
Monday. The members of the cartel participating in the agreement claimed repeatedly
they take the cut seriously, however it would be for the first time that there
will fail to deliver on their promises. Let’s see… We have also an
Extraordinary EU Summit from which rumours may eventually hit the market during
the whole day. In the afternoon the Canadian job report and the result of the
Consumer Confidence Survey done by University of Michigan may be the main
market movers.
Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be
consistent
Mr. Tech Man
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where
despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment
advice. All rights reserved ©2016.
Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog:
landoftrading.blogspot.com
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