Jan 31, 2017 - Trump administration really don’t like weak EUR...

Trump administration really don’t like weak EUR...

• We will very likely hear more and more from Washington on EUR strength in the future

• As all comments come as a part of Trump marketing campaign and the plan to knock lower USD in order to support bringing jobs home effort

• Don't they recall the time when EURUSD was printing the highs around 1.6000 back in July 2008 and trading around 1.4000 level just back in May 2014?

• Or do they really believe that ECB still running a QE due to low core inflation, issues in Italy and political risks in EU, and Fed getting closer to hiking rates more and more is a currency manipulation? One would say it is a monetary policy divergence at this point of economic cycle with its natural consequences

• The Trump offensive keeps going on and making more and more adversaries then partners what may turn negative for US in mid-term

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Jan 27, 2017 - Market Update

Short review

• Trump/Mexico – 20% import tax mirrors the Trump’s view of doing serious business with Mexico
• Saw some position squaring ahead of next week FOMC and NFPs

• BoJ was active within 5-10 year bond space what helped USDJPY higher; this action came after announcement that BoJ will not act within shorter maturities space
• BoJ trying to manage the yield curve (yields around 0.1% level but the effect is translated into JPY moves only and not really affecting bond yields
• Is Kuroda testing the market?

• US equities in uptrend, supported also by strong earnings
• More EU names to report next week what will keep equity markets busy
• Microsoft doing well in cloud business

• Bit of consolidation in bonds
• Italian and Portuguese bonds having hard times what may be on the account of speculation/opinion clash about QE taper from ECB
• While ECB is pushing back any talks about QE taper, bond market is already pre-positioning for such a move
• Longer maturities are reacting, pushing Italian and Portuguese yields higher (where they may eventually trade without QE)
• Bund yields also heading higher thus lowering the spread with US Treasuries (very last picture bottom right)

• Theresa May meeting Trump today; more at  link
• Trump to speak with Putin on the phone tomorrow

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Weekly Macro Overview - Week 29

Previous Week Summary

The whole week we saw risk on flows on the back of few positive news as Theresa May becoming UK’s PM, BoE and BoJ getting ready for more stimulus, Fed officials expressing patience about rate hikes, pretty good start of earnings season…all of that pushing stocks strongly higher. For stocks to keep the momentum we would need to have decent earnings coming in. Meanwhile, bond yields moved higher and USD got some strength on the back of better US macro data that renewed Fed rate high thinking.

Monday – BoE looking at curbing the cash withdrawals from real-estate funds, UK to strengthen ties with North America invest in infrastructure. Spain & Portugal may not eventually face the fines in EU budget procedure.

Tuesday – Japan to end deflation, stimulus by month end, no seize/sources of financing. BoE – will do all what is needed to secure financial stability after Brexit. Spain & Portugal under official deficit procedure. EU pushing on UK to trigger Article 50. Philippines-China court ruling on South China Sea – no historic title to it, would likely negotiate before G20 meeting in Philippines. Bullard (Fed) – one rate hike in a foreseeable future possible, economy stuck with low growth, inflation and unemployment, sees 2% inflation and unemployment rate at 4.7% in 2.5 years, monetary policy can’t change productivity, housing market to improve. US JOLTS job openings at 5.5 mln in June vs 5.85 prior, slight correction of preferred measure of Fed’s Yellen. UK Parliament may debate as early as on Sep 5 the possibility of holding a 2^nd Brexit referendum because of 4.1 mln petition.

Wednesday – EZ May Industrial production worse, previous revised higher. Japan should expand fiscal/monetary stimulus, should buy bonds not go for negative rates. Scotland reiterated its intentions to stay in EU. US Mortgage applications lower than expected, BoC – no change in rates, Q2 GDP – negatives: volatile trade flows, uneven consumer spending, wildfires. Financial conditions remain accommodative, lower CAD helps exporters but may not drive growth. Theresa May officially becoming a new UK PM, Boris Johnson new Foreign Affairs Secretary what may be joke towards EU but he will not lead the Brexit talks with EU.

Thursday – Japan discussed perpetual bonds with Bernanke that would be bought by BoJ, thus underwriting government debt (illegal according to Japanese constitution), JPY weakened, rumoured JPY 10/20/35 trillion fiscal/monetary stimulus by month end. Japan Rating Agency JCR cut outlook to negative from stable & affirmed AAA rating. Schauble-Lew expressed mutual support on Brexit, G20 meeting; Weidmann (ECB) – EU must have solid foundation. BoE - surprising no change in rates, getting ready for August. Job offerings lower after Brexit, businesses cutting investments. US June Final PPI better, Initial Jobless Claims better, previous revised lower.

 

Friday – Italian banking crisis – solution to be found, US funds looking at some buying opportunities in Italian banks. Japanese banks don’t like idea of borrowing from BoJ at negative rates. ECB – non-performing loans in Italian banks a problem but manageable. Weaker JPY an obstacle for helicopter money, UK May Construction output worse, EZ June CPI in line M/Y, BoE to make a 40 bps cut in Aug, launch GBP 50 bln QE in Nov (according to Morgan Stanley), US June CPI lower M/Y, Core CPI higher, June Advanced Retail sales higher, July Empire Manufacturing better but new orders bad, June Industrial Production better, July Preliminary Univ of Michigan Consumer Confidence lower than expected, May Business inventories better. German government to safeguard small investors in Italian banks, creditors to take losses.

Nintendo shares are up 70% on new application high interest. These levels are very difficult to justify versus its peers like King Digital or Zynga. Patience needed before shorting.

Upcoming Week Outlook

Monday – BoE MPC member Weale is out, may provide additional insights on potential rate cut or QE in August. German Bundesbank to release Monthly report, a nice piece providing hints on what risks they see.

Tuesday – RBA releasing Minutes that may shed additional light on what RBA thinks about current situation and possible further easing. UK CPI/PPI – will be watched by markets as BoE is readying for QE; GE ZEW Economic Sentiment for July will show us what temperature German economy has. From overseas we will get Building permits, Housing starts showing us what is the situation in housing market. Expecting June Housing starts at around 1.17 mln vs 1.16 in May. June permits show move to approx. 1.16 mln, higher than in May. Also expecting Home sales to decline to 5.48 mln in June.

​Wednesday – CN Leading index (m/m), UK labor market data will be out, where Claimant count should rise to 4.1k from -0.4k previously, Unemployment rate should stay unchanged at 5.0% and Earnings should rise. We should also learn what how consumers are confident in Europe (Brexit).

Thursday – JP – Industry activity, UK Retail Sales for June (expecting decline), ECB Meeting (live) but no rates change or additional QE expected. The rates should stay at -0.40% (Deposit), 0.00% (Main refinancing) and +0.25% (Marginal lending facility). Definitely closely watched by the market to get the clue on after Brexit vote actions from ECB, situation in EZ economy, QE bond buying and what’s next for Italian banks. Later will have Philly Fed Manufacturing index (expecting rise) and US Jobless claims to rise to 271k from previous week 254k. Later will have CB Leading Index (to return to positive territory).

Friday – will be about July Flash PMI data from all around the world, JP (to rise), FR & GE (both Manufacturing & Services slightly worse), EZ (both slightly worse), UK Manufacturing PMI (worse), US Flash Manufacturing PMI (better). Will also have CPI/Core CPI data and Retail sales from CA (both lower), making the BoC decision makers think whether the last week inaction was right.

The earnings will be monitored by market participants as equity markets are making new historic highs and if they are solid, we may have another shift higher. All those investors sitting on sidelines and hoarding cash before/after Brexit referendum are now moving to stocks. The bond yields started to rise again (risk on outflows) but the likelihood of Fed rate hike, especially due to stronger US data, may inevitable shake the confidence of stock investors. On the other hand, what other options than stocks (dividends) do you have in your hunt for yield?

Event Risk Calendar - Week 29

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.

All rights reserved ©2016 www.landoftrading.com Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Weekly Macro Overview - Week 28

Previous Week Summary

Bits and pieces of Brexit referendum were still present in the market with not surprising suspension of redemptions from real-estate UK funds, making GBP 15 bln out of GBP 24 bln locked. The GBP is firmly sitting below 1.3000 handle, USDJPY very close to critical level (please bear in mind, that BoJ may show its teeth soon). The Italian banking crisis is keeping Rome, Brussels and Frankfurt busy, as the banks cope with EUR 360 bln of non-performing loans (1/5 of country’s GDP), but the highlight of the week were US NFPs. US stocks flirting with all times highs at the same time as bond yields are printing new lows. No comment on that… Meanwhile, Yuan is weakening fifth week in a row and PBoC doesn’t seem to care as FX monthly report showed big one month rise in foreign FX reserves. Likely, PBoC has stopped its interventions, so the CNY is left to weaken to support the growth. As the situation in Chinese economy deteriorates, another round of RRR cuts may also be on the table in the weeks to come.

Monday – Australia’s elections didn’t resolve the deadlock and S&P lowered the outlook to Negative due to strong budget deficit risks that may not be properly addressed. S&P also commented on UK’s GDP and see it declining 1.2% and 1.0% (2017/18) on Brexit, BoE lowering rates 50 bps before yearend. EZ Sentiment Index was lowest since Jan 2015, UK June Constructions PMI was horrible and corporate tax rate can do to 15% from 20%. All in all more UK is slowing down, more QE we can see. After Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage was the second key Brexit figure leaving the mess he had created to be cleaned up by someone else. I love politicians…

Tuesday – after RBA market sees further easing already in Aug (55% probability); ECB – no need for rate cuts at the moment & bank sector needs consolidation; EZ June Services PMI better, UK’s worse; BoE report – Brexit risks crystallizing, to provide substantial FX liquidity and to support jobs and growth. US Durables and Factory orders lower than expected and Dudley (Fed) pointing to patience with hikes due to low inflation and global uncertainty. Fed stays data dependent and US economy doing OK on average according to him.

Wednesday – Ireland, Spain the highest growth in EU; Greece may return to bond market next year; CH government proposed automatic tax exchange; GE FinMin Schauble on Deutsche Borse/LSE merger – must follow the rules, location of HQ key to approval; US Trade Balance worse, Final Markit Services PMI better, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI better – proving growing confidence in US economy, will reflect good in Q2 GDP number.

Thursday – UK Industrial & Manufacturing production declined less than expected, ECB Minutes – Brexit risks, inflation conditions weak, not important which assets are purchased under QE, recovery proceeding as expected, drive by domestic demand. US ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims better, EU – Spain/Portugal failed in reducing budget deficits, may face sanctions.

 

Friday – US NFPs – headline 287k vs 180k exp, Unempl. rate 4.9% vs 4.8% exp, Average hourly earnings 0.1% vs 0.2% exp M/M, 2.6% vs 2.7% exp Y/Y, Participation rate 62.7% vs 62.6% exp. Overall very strong report that put the September rate hike again on the table but recall the above comments from Dudley (Tuesday). The negative was the 11k revision down of previous number from 38k to 27k, what brings the May/June reports at 157k each, thus Q2 average moves to 147k vs 196k in Q1.

Goldman Sachs see markets underpricing the likelihood of Fed hiking the rate at this point and we should see the 2/3 probability or rate hike by yearend.

Upcoming Week Outlook

Sunday were held General elections in Japan where Abe`s Liberal Democratic Party have won a simple majority and will probably able to form a super majority coalition. As the Japanese ultra-easy monetary policy didn`t bring the desired boost to the economy, the government is expected to introduce a stimulus package after the election that could exceed 10 trillion yen. Despite this seems to be partially in-line with the recommendations of the world` s central banks to activate fiscal policies the success is not granted. If the government goes for big infrastructural projects only the positive effects will be short-lived without the tough structural reforms so needed for the economy. The Chinese inflation data released on Sunday were in-line with the expectations.

US earnings season will bring some interesting names during too including some big banks. These earnings can serve as leading indicators on US economy as banks are the centre of the economies financial bloodstream.

Monday –EuroGroup meetings can bring some volatility if info regarding Brexit released. Ester George, (hawkish voting member of FOMC in 2016) will speak about the US economy at the Mid-America Labor Market Conference in Missouri, key Q if there will be any hike this year… The boring start to the week however may offer some healthy short term trends, in the aftermath of the Japanese elections, most likely positive effects on the stock market. For CAD traders the key Q is if there is a housing bubble or not. Housing starts will be released at GMT 12:15 PM may give a hint.

Tuesday – Pound traders should be on the guard during the second day of the week as Inflation hearings will take place in London. Carney and some MPC members will testify before Parliament's Treasury Committee on economy and inflation outlook and while there is no timeline, comments on BOE planned easing can create market volatility. Later on Tuesday BOE Quarterly Bulletin will be released at GMT 11:00 AM and US JOLTS at GMT 02:00 PM. The later will be watched due to the surge in NFP numbers last Friday. Traders will be likely looking for what`s behind the improvement.

​

Wednesday – We will start the day with the Chinese Trade Balance before European session, no exact time yet. Bank of Canada will announce overnight rate at GMT 02:00 PM, news conference is held at GMT 03:15 PM. Between them the US crude inventories may create volatility in CAD crosses due to high dependence of the country from oil industry. No rate change is expected but one shouldn`t forget  

Thursday – Malcolm Turnbull`s narrow win in the long Australian elections raises the question how stable will be the new government. Some rating agencies already declared that strong government is needed to keep AAA rating for the country as only this will allow to proceed with the necessary structural reforms which will be painful for the nation. Therefore, the Employment data at GMT 01:30 AM will be watched closely by traders and analysts. The trend in Unemployment rate is to the downside and even there is expected an uptick, this will not change the overall trend. Turnbull promised in his campaign he will seek change in the country`s dependence on mining industry but didn`t specify how he want to do that.

The event of the day will be however the BOE rate decision and Monetary Policy Statement GMT 11:00 AM, where the expectations are mixed from 25 bps cut to no change. But we can agree on that if there is a cut it shouldn`t be more than 25 bps. We thing it would be too soon for the BoE to cut the rates. The pound is weak this itself will boost the economy and MPC may wait with any major stimulus until the implications of the Brexit vote on the UK economy will be clearer. Later the day there will be producer`s inflation and unemployment claims from US, both are expected to worse compared to the last release.

Friday – China GDP will be in focus and it`s expected that the slowing trend of growth will materialize in 6.6% growth rate. As China is the second biggest economy in the world if the slowing pace of growth is confirmed, this will have broad implications on the global economy also to the decisions of central banks (especially Fed) in the coming months. 

Later the day Carney will have a speech in Toronto regarding climate change and economy, we expect some more hints on how they will deal with the Brexit case. Later a bunch of US data is expected, foremost the US inflation and retail sales data may bring some the volatility, no changes are expected except Core Retail Sales. The trend in total vehicle sales turned down this year. As this could be taken for a leading indicator to US consumer confidence than there are more clouds on the horizon as Fed is considering another rate hike this year. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index at GMT 02:00 PM will be important for the same reason – are the consumers confident enough the spend more money and boost the inflation…?

Event Risk Calendar

 DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading       teams view on past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not and shouldn´t been viewed   as an investment advice and the creator of this material shouldn´t been hold liable for any loss resulting from       action where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this  material  as an investment advice. 

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