Short recap
Asia up on risk on, Nikkei 225 attacking 2015 highs
Europe opening in green
Risk on can continue but need good NFPs
The last nail to the US international supremacy
(seen as the Fall of the Roman empire sort of) is Trump pulling out of Paris
Climate Accord link
Trade sanctions on US polluters may follow
On the other hand I like this one from FR president "Make Our Planet Great Again"
Oil on defensive on Trump pulling out of Paris
accord and still rising US production
As US drillers likely to increase production/supply
Fed’s Powell – US economy healthy, on track to
make 3 hikes this year in total
Equities
Trump pulling out of Paris accord could cost US jobs,
innovation and production in green industries
And cause the lagging in development against the world
Linde-Praxair merging (USD 73 bln) and creating a
global leader in the field
Audi facing emission scandal
Baidu to entering the field of self-driving cars
with Bosch and Continental
Google to be fined by EU
Deere buying Wirtgen Group (USD 4.9 bln) t
diversify business
Bonds
10-yr Trys yield at 2.22%% - in case of bad surprise in
NFPs, the 2.16% critical
10-yr Bund yield at 0.30%
BoJ reached the same size balance sheet as Fed
(USD 4.5 trln)
Thus tripled it since 2013
DXY
Strong ADP had no effect on USD or yields
As there is an erratic correlation between ADPs and NFPs
And US inflation is a question mark for many
EURUSD
Tight range around 55 HMA (1.1217) that is steadily
moving higher
Resistance at 1.1267, 1.1300 and 1.1500
Support at 1.1200 and 1.1166 (23.6% Fibo)
USDJPY
Seems to be getting ahead of US yields
Bad surprise in NFPs having much bigger impact
Resistance at 111.80 (Ichimoku), 112.00 (38.2% Fibo) and
descending trendline
Support at 111.24 (50.0% Fibo), 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and
200 DMA at 110.30
Gold
Resistance at 1286 (76.4% Fibo) and descending trendline
Market not ready to break it as may see strong profit
taking funds substantially increased exposure (COT May 23)
Support at 1255 (61.8% Fibo)
Oil – very interesting piece on the future of
oil link
Oil companies now tilting toward renewable energy, such
as Norway’s Statoil ASA, are best placed to survive peak demand, said
Deutsche Bank AG. Exxon Mobil Corp.—due to its size and “reluctance to
change”—is the most vulnerable.
State-run giants of the type that dominate the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are even more at risk and could
one day be left with billions of barrels of unwanted crude.
Data
US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior
Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior
Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior
Market expecting strong jobs growth after stellar ADP
Earnings on moderate side but market focusing on
ECB’s Nowotny (1200 GMT)
Fed’s Harker (1645 GMT)
Fed’s Kaplan (1700 GMT)
EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)
June 8 – ECB meeting – Draghi being alone but
inflation data from US and JP suggesting ECB to carry on with ultra-loose
stimulus
ECB likely to adjust the risk to economy wording but no
change to asset purchases
June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if
SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow
June 8 - Former FBI director James Comey
to testify before Senate
June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections
(a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)
June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – hike probability was
at 89% after yesterday’s data. If data supportive, we may see one hike in June,
then in Sept followed by balance sheet reduction announcement in Dec
June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where
despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment
advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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