Jan 11, 2018 - Market Update (Crytpos getting hit in SoKo, Chinese like Trys anyway, 10-yr Trys yields holds above 2.50% despite China/BoJ, USDJPY looking towards 110.00 ?, VIX above 10 but still very low, Bayer hoarding cash by selling more Covestro, Aramco seeking cheap loans ahead of IPO, PIMCO to buy more Trys on recent weakness, SNB with profit of USD 55 bln)

Short recap

Asian in red as stocks getting nervous, VIX above 10

Europe opening lower

Cryptos – SoKo preparing a trading ban, tax authorities cracking on some exchanges

China – halt of Trys buying based on wrong info (I like it as some made a nice money..)

US attacking NAFTA, opting for more protectionism

While French Macron signing nice contracts in China

Equities

Volatility still remains low but that can change quickly

As markets may get nervous at current record levels

Will get more hints from Q4 earnings season kicking off 

Earnings may be irrelevant to some extent and investors will be more interested in discussing:

US effective tax rates, CAPEX outlooks and buybacks/dividend payouts

…what about positioning ourselves in cash, gold and bonds without any equity link in 2018?

Bayer selling bigger stake in Covestro (EUR 1.5 bln) to hoard the cash

Intel may go short on security issues against its competitors

Aramco seeking cheap loans before IPO

Canada speeding up Basel rules implementation

Likely this year

PIMCO may buys some US Trys on the recent weakness

Berkshire Hathaway moving higher on Buffett’s succession moves

By adding Abel, Jain to the board

SNB with USD 55 bln profit in 2017  link 

From its USD 800 bln holdings of US/EU stocks, bonds and gold

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.53% (printing high at 2.59% yesterday)

Surprisingly staying above 2.50% level despite China denouncing halt of Trys purchases

10-yr Bund yield at 0.47%

Spikes in US 2-yr and 5 yr yields were translated yesterday into 10-yr Trys/Bunds as well

Chinese slowdown or hald of Trys purchases and speculation about BoJ taper were the main triggers

Investors look at US inflation linked bonds as economic growth, rising oil and commodity prices

Are likely to spur inflation

BoJ keeps bond buying unchanged despite news from yesterday 

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1962 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1994 (10 DMA), offers sitting above 1.2000

Support at 1.1915, 1.1831 (10/50 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

111.71 (200 DMA) may act as a support for correction higher

112.00 again in sight but seller sitting here

Resistance at 111.89 (38.2% Fibo), 112.24 (100 DMA) and 112.37 (Ichimoku)

The potential rally should fade here as well

JP investors like US yields but unhappy with recent moves in JPY

Chinese Trys plans and BoJ potential tapering as themes fade away

BoJ hates volatility – likely to keep all under control as they proved with no change to JGB buying today

Interesting to see USDJPY not bouncing higher after China/BoJ today and higher Trys yields?

One may think that further JPY strength is to come…

Support at 111.02 (50.0% Fibo), then 111.26 and 110.83 (short specs may bail out here)

And we can see a dip to 110.14 (61.8% Fibo) with psychological 110.00 level next

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

After consolidation on rising yields higher

As the news about China slowing down/halting Trys purchases and BoJ potential tapering (resulting in stronger JPY/weaker USD) pushed gold higher

Still feels support from stocks in red and rising physical demand from China

But need a correction before moving higher again

Support at 1314 (10 DMA), then 1300 and 1290 (100 DMA)

Resistance at 1321 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Fed’s Dudley (2030 GMT)

Eurogroup president speaking about future of EZ (1630 GMT)

Jan 19 – US fiscal deadline

Jan 23-26 – Trump in Davos

Jan 23 – BoJ – any hints on potential taper?

Jan 25 - ECB

Jan 30 – US State of the Union

Jan 31 – FOMC

Feb 5 – Powell as Fed Chair

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Should you have any questions feel free to contact us anytime.

Good luck Champs!

  

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 21, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC - market not a strong believer of Fed talk, EURUSD sitting at strong support 1.1870/80, Gold at crossroad between 1290-1300, UniCredit to buy Commerzbank, Apple slowing, Huawei, Oppo, Samsung speeding up, EU to redo taxation of digital world)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening higher

EU-CA free trade deal in effect starting today

EU to redo taxes on digital companies

Goldman Sachs expect USD 1 trln tax cuts (0.4% of GDP) over 10 yrs

FOMC – no change, rates 1.00-1.25%

Taper starting in Oct to get cushion for next crisis

Expecting 1 more hike this year, 3 hikes next year

Market pricing Dec hike at 66% vs pre-FOMC 46%

But market still not a strong believer in Dec hike yet

Fischer out, Yellen likely out next year want to make a point

Low inflation transitory but with question mark

BoJ – no policy change

Short term rates target at -0.1%

10-yr JGB yield target at 0%

Bond buying at JPY 80 trln annually

Who holds the most assets?

Fed 23% of GDP – on the way to trim

ECB 40% of GDP – Draghi was late to the QE party but did well

BoJ 60% of GDP – no signs of slowing…

Equities

Delphi & BlackBerry to work on self-driving cars software

Google eying HTC Corp (USD 1.1 bln)

UniCredit interested in merging with Commerzbank

New Apple watch experiencing connectivity issue

Apple slowing in innovation while Chinese rivals (Huawei & Oppo) growing on design and price

Amazon screening website for ingredients used to make bombs

Something different... Amazon is the New Tech Crash  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

EURUSD

Completed bearish outside day

Sitting slightly above the strong support zone 1.1870/80

Post-FOMC flows to show direction today

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Then 1.1837, 1.1823, 1.1808 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

If we see a consolidation 1.1600/1.1500 may be a target

Resistance at 1.1943 (10 DMA), 1.1966 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Fed moving, BoJ on hold makes bearish tone for JPY

Resistance around 112.60-70, stops above up to 113.00

Then 113.14 (23.6% Fibo)

Support found from 112.20 lower with bids starting at this level

112.31 (38.2% Fibo), 112.18 (200 DMA), descending trendline

Gold

USD and higher yields putting pressure

Rocket man and Barking dog providing support

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels

Data/events

ECB General Council meeting

ECB’s Praet (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1330 GMT)

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Aug 2, 2017 - Market Update (DXY close to strong support area 92.64, 200 WMA & 91.88, BoJ keeping powerful QE, Iron ore down 1.8%, Plenty of USD liquidity supporting risk assets, Drop in US car sales to hurt, One Apple a day..., Tesla on stage today, Banks not happy with low volatility, Venezuela bonds struggling)

Short recap

Asia in green as techs were inspired by Apple’s earnings

Europe opening higher1

BoJ on a halfway to 2% inflation, must keep powerful QE in place

Structural reforms needed to boost inflation

Trump to address some China trade practices

Iron ore down 1.8% after three day rally (seems not sustainable) and reaching USD 70 per tonne

As it was on the back of Chinese steel producers just pre stocking

Drop to USD 50 may follow

Sep debt ceiling debate/vote coming

Plenty of USD liquidity supporting risk assets

Equities

Drop in car sales a risk for US economy

Lots of leased cars coming back to market, so automakers will face tough times

But stellar earnings from EU and US keep supporting stocks

Banks not happy with low volatility as it takes the bond trading profits down

Silicon Valley startups facing more pragmatic approach from investors, thus less money

Societe Generale putting EUR 300 mln aside

BP in talks with green car producers to offer a battery charging at its gas stations worldwide

Earnings

Apple surpassed expectations yesterday, hitting all time high in after market

Still struggling in China but moving focus from cars over to autonomous software and all around

Today reporting: MetLife, AIG, Time Warner, Symantec, Molson Coors, Tesla among others

Tesla – market is expecting a rise in revenue but not turning to profit will take time. Model 3 to be a drag for the time being.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27% vs 2.30% yesterday – down on US politics and North Korea

10-yr Bund yield at 0.48% vs 0.54% yesterday

Both Trys and Bund yields felt overnight

Situation in Venezuela getting worse

Sharply falling bonds just reflect the risk of potential sanctions to oil industry

DXY

Strong support at 92.64 and 91.88, weekly close crucial for further direction

Levels correspond with 1.2000 level in EURUSD

Combined with 200 WMA at 92.37 helped to support USD over the last 2 years

Likely to have attempts to break these levels

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

Sentiment is on cautious side at these levels, market reassessing how USD is actually weak

Not likely to move to 1.2000 without any new USD negative news

What’s coming first? Trump or NFPs?

Support 1.1721 (10 DMA), 1.1785 (200 WMA) – to watch weekly close above 200 WMA

Closing below 10 DMA would make bullish momentum weaker

Resistance 1.1200 more psychological of nature

USDJPY

Small hurdle at 110.50

Resistance 110.97 (61.8% Fibo)

Support 110.14 (76.4% Fibo)

Bids sitting at 110.00, stops likely below 109.90

Data/events

ECB Governing Council meeting

Fed’s Mester (1600 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1930 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs – 173k exp

Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole

Draghi’s show up highly expected in the light of potential tapering

Any clues on EUR 60 bln monthly purchase being taken down o 40…or?

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom 

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June 16, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia flat

Europe opening higher

BoJ no change, upgrading consumption, domestic and global growth

To keep support as inflation is far from 2%

Greece getting EUR 8.5 bln loan

What about central banks raising the inflation targets to 3-4% range instead of 2% one?

Would it create the psychological pressure on households and corporates to spend/invest more?

Fed ok with hikes despite lower inflation pressures and job market is still strengthening

As financial markets conditions constantly improving since Mar 2016

Equities

US retailers suffer with almost 300 bankruptcies this year

US techs fall out stopped again around 5650 area for NASDAQ

Seems like correction without any panic is welcome

Nike to cut jobs and streamline offering

Apple suffering the most from techs selloff

Facebook fighting terrorism via removing content

Uber looking at trucks

BHP with new Chairman

Nestle likely to sell US business of Butterfinger and BabyRuth

BP and Reliance Industries to take on gas production in India (USD 6 bln)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.17%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%

EURUSD

Support at 1.1120 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Digesting FOMC

While BoJ seems off the interest of markets

Resistance at 111.24 (50.0% Fibo), then 111.37 and 112.00 Ichimoku

100 DMA at 111.88

Support at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.58 (200 DMA)

Descending trendline around 111.00

Closing today above 110.80 level would be a bullish outside week signal

With potential to look at 114.36 after breaking 111.24 level

DXY

Close to resistance at 97.62, then 97.85 (50.0% Fibo)

And descending trendline around 97.98

Gold

Under pressure post-FOMC

Expecting a wait-and-see game, as there is still decent physical demand due to geopolitical risks

While investors need to assess upcoming US data to get more comfortable with Fed’s hawkish tilt

Support at 100 DMA at 1247, 1245 (61.8% Fibo), 200 DMA at 1237 and 1234 (76.4% Fibo)

Resistance at 1255 (50.0%)

Upcoming Data/Events

Fed’s Kaplan (1645 GMT)

Sunday – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Monday – Brexit talks starting ?

Thursday – EU Summit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 13, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher

EU not happy with lack of clarity on UK side

Working on moving trading and clearing of EUR denominated assets out of UK

Basics of financial reform in US unveiled

Equities

US techs heavy yesterday but got some bids at the end of session

Is a 4% correction enough?

Material stocks can be back in vogue on copper break…

Hong Kong listed stocks trade at 30% discount to US peers

While offering attractive yields

Risk is China data

GE to review its business activities as the new CEO comes in

Bit of financial world…UK financials keep moving staff out of UK despite softer Brexit talk

LSE expecting profit growth to be driven by indices and clearing

Allied Irish Banks to sell 25% stake to rise EUR 3.3 bln

US banks launching their own payment app to compete with peer-to-peer Venmo

Honeywell to spin off profitable aerospace

Slovakian ESET and US Dragos warn of a malware that can attack critical infrastructure

That was behind last year’s Ukraine power blackout link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.21%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25%

BoJ slowed down bond buying as the rising yields stabilized

As the US Trys yields have fallen

DXY

Nothing new from yesterday…

Should FOMC keeps hawkish wording, USD to benefit

If not, USD sell off to be small and short

Support at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo), followed by 99.26 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

Seems soft ahead of FOMC

Resistance at 1.1200, 1.1232 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

US yields lending some support

Lots of offers above 110.00, more above 110.50

Large options with strike 110.00 expiring today

Crucial resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.54 (200 DMA)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Gold

Double top

Resistance at 1275 (10 DMA), 1276 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1264 (38.2% Fibo), 1261 (50 DMA), 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Eventually, 1245 (61.8% Fibo and 100 DMA) depending on how hawkish FOMC wording will be

Upcoming Data/Events

GE: Schaeuble speaking

ECB’s Weidmann speaking

ECB’s Lautenschlager 1000 GMT

Tue/Wed – FOMC meeting

Dovish hike priced in

Market can get surprised if Fed keeps talking hawkish

Forward guidance critical (Yellen holds a press conference)

Economic projections to be released

Thu/Fri – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 12, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly higher

Europe opening mixed

BoJ is passionate about 2% inflation in 2018

Trade barriers a dead end – comments from Fed’s Dudley

Fed officially commenting on Trump policies

US financial conditions keep easing, thus giving a green light to Fed for June rate hike

Fed just proved that it is very closely watching politics

As they moved their Nov meeting by one day from Tue/Wed to Wed/Thu (Nov 7/8)

Due to mid-term elections on Tue Nov 6

PBOC injected medium term liquidity to support the economy

While keeps tight grip on short term lending to curb speculations

UK politicians still not telling all to British public

May is getting ready for a hard Brexit

Equities

Uber is a transport service and not an app

What is a huge challenge with legal/licensing consequences for Uber in EU market

Rosneft having hard time to acquire Essar Oil (USD 12.9 bln) as company's creditors have the say

Vivendi to merge with Havas

Barclays’ investment bank arm looking to hire up to 100 new bankers as a part of reorganization

Wells Fargo very active in cost cutting but outlook stays not that convincing

Goldman Sachs launching a new dark pool for trading stocks

The private trading venue will be run by Nasdaq

Macy’s and Kohl’s weak earnings proving that the sector is struggling big times with online competition

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.38%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.43%

DXY – a bit mixed yesterday

But well above 200 DMA (99.17)

Support also at 99.26 (61.8% Fibo)

Rising trendline acting as a resistance now

Next is 101.00 (76.4% Fibo)

EURUSD

As yesterday the 1.0850 is pivotal

Followed by the 1.0825/30 area (21 & 200 DMA) – if broken, likely to see more downside

1^st round FR election gap is the next to watch

USDJPY

Next 115.00/50 and 118.60 highs may be in focus

Support at 113.76 (76.4% Fibo), 113.00 (100 DMA) and 113.09 (10 DMA)

Gold

Resistance at 1228 (100 DMA), 1230 (50% Fibo) and 1255 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 1204 (38.2% Fibo)

Upcoming

US: CPI

Core CPI m/m 0.2% exp vs -0.1% prior

Core CPI y/y 2.0% exp vs 2.0% prior

CPI m/m 0.2% exp vs -0.3% prior

CPI y/y 2.3% exp vs 2.4% prior

US : Retail sales

US : University of Michigan Index

Fed's Evans speaking 1300 GMT

Fed’s Harker speaking 1630 GMT

G7 Fin Mins & Central bankers meeting

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike above 90%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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Apr 5, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher but very safe on Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday

While PMIs better

China back after holiday helping markets

Europe opening lower

BoJ reduced purchases of short term gov bonds (1-3 yr space)

Brexit – households planning to reduce spending

UK planning to abandon the clean energy commitments what may in turn make Brexit talks with EU harder

North Korea firing a missile ahead of Trump-Xi meeting…a smart decision?

Deutsche Bank lost few executives after bonus payout

ChemChina got another green light to buy Syngenta (USD 43 bln) after receiving US antitrust approval

EU to review the deal by Apr 18

Daimler-Bosch to partner in self-driving cars

A self driving Mercedes taxi a dream? Well, not anymore in the future…

Another victim from retail space vs e-commerce fight is Ralph Lauren closing its store on Fifth Avenue

S&P 500 getting cornered by descending trendline and 50 DMA

Trump-Xi meeting or US NFPs a catalyst?

Oil higher on tightening seen in the market

Iron futures up

Gold failed to break through resistance at 1257 (200 DMA) again and staying close though

Needs 10-yr yield to break below 2.30% or get some support from USDJPY falling below 110.00 level

Support at 1236, Resistances at 1257 than 1273, 1292

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.26%

Global yields higher on rising oil

Peripheral spreads unchanged after FR presidential debate

GE-FR spread at 65, not very changed yet

French bonds can see some bids today

FX implied volatility falling down pointing to markets desperately in need of catalyst

Likely the 2.30% level in US 10-yr Trys can serve as one or outcome of Trump-Xi meeting

If positive, USD may benefit

USDJPY – close to 109.50 level that may be a good entry for reversal

And move higher to attack the Dec/Jan highs around 118.00/50 range

Data

EZ: Composite PMI – no major revision expected

US: ADP Employment Report expected slightly lower

US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index expected slightly lower

FOMC Minutes – markets looking for any wording on balance sheet reduction

Thu:

ECB Draghi, Weidmann and Praet speaking (especially Draghi’s remarks on inflation will be closely watched)

ECB Minutes

Trump to meet Chinese president

Trump to use trade to wage on North Korea

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

Fred Williams, James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 27, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Europe opening lower

Brexit – May visiting Scotland to offer more powers

Ahead of Scottish parliament vote on second independence referendum tomorrow

Wake up call for Trump trade after Obamacare repeal vote being pulled off (for the time being)

Risk of other reforms being delayed unless Republicans deliver very quickly

Trump to sign another batch of executive orders on Tuesday to support oil, coal and natural gas industries

Rumours about Trump giving the NATO bill of USD 374 bln to Merkel

Merkel’s party scored win in a local elections

Doubt about Trump trade to have wider implications for US stocks

As equity markets are forward looking and may discount the possibility of lower growth

Financials to feel the pain

S&P 500 – support at 2300 and 2250

DAX – resistance 12 200, former support at 12 100/000 now acting as a resistance

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% (important 1.30% level)

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.39%

COT (Mar 21)

Institutional investors staying on sidelines, participation very low across commodity sector

USD longs up by 11%

EUR shorts down by 20%

WTI long reduction continued, shorts up

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting confused the market

No extension, review later

Brent support at USD 50

Breaking USD 49.22 opens the door to Nov low at USD 43.58

Gold – resistance at 1258 (200 DMA)

DXY – H+S getting firmer foot, 200 DMA at 98.56

USDJPY – next support at 109.50 and 108.24 (200 DMA)

Check also 200 and 55 WMA

BoJ – easy monetary policy to stay

EURUSD – 1.0850 broken this morning

High from Dec 8 at 1.0873

200 DMA at 1.0880

Descending trendline around this level too

But still can get a touch above 1.0900 level (1.0910/25)

ECB – if the market attention shifts to macro from political uncertainty (Macron and Merkel doing better), ECB would likely need to pursue a less dovish policy

Data

GE: Ifo Business Climate Survey – no negative surprise expected

EZ:  Private Household Sector Loans – expected slightly higher

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 15, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia saw some profit taking ahead of FOMC

EU stocks opening higher

EU may officially authorize the start of Brexit talks on June 20 meeting

China keeps building in disputed South China Sea

Interesting to see extremely low level of volatility across many asset classes despite Trump and his policies

May be something is already boiling and FOMC tonight will be the trigger

Oil volatility giving the lead to equity markets

Lower oil may be a new catalyst for stocks

S&P 500 levels 2350/2400

Would need a strong impulse from FOMC to break 2400

US tech and healthcare overstretched and most sensitive to any correction

Volkswagen still recovering from diesel emission scandal and seems to be motivated to search for a tighter cooperation with other big names in the industry, like Fiat-Chrysler for example

Safran still interested in Zodiac Aerospace

Credit Suisse Fear Barometer (S&P500 puts to calls) strongly up as investors pay more for downside protection

EURUSD – crucial for bulls to stay above 1.0505/15 level

Still within the wider range 1.0500/1.0850

Tomorrow’s trading (after FOMC) to show further direction

But wouldn’t be surprised if we stayed range bound again

Base setup – a contrarian view:

ECB can not be dovish going to G20 and on German higher rates hopes

Should Germany want higher rates and higher currency, the Germanexit needs to take place

USD not reacting to strong data doesn’t mean bearish view

Monthly chart setup showing strong demand around 1.0500 level

FOMC can give the confirmation to break the level and head to parity

Than to 0.9500 in medium term

Likely this move will be accompanied by spike toward 1.0750/0850 as market will look for liquidity

Yields expected to spike up but correct in the coming days (as history shows)

10-yr Trys yield likely to test 2.64% level that contained the recent selloff

If Fed not convincing about higher pace of rate hikes due to Trump policy uncertainty

USD selloff to follow what will hurt more then stronger currency

Looks like being bullish USD is an edge and market is positioning for weaker USD

On the other hand ECB and FOMC will need to take into account lower oil prices

And their impact on inflation at some point

Data

US: Consumer Price Index – expecting to touch 2.7%

US: Retail Sales – to easy slightly but keep rising

FOMC – 25 bps hike expected

But the wording on the pace of future hikes the most important

Dutch elections (polling stations close at 2000 GMT, first exit polls to start right after)

US debt ceiling deadline

This week is busy:

Mar 16 – BoJ meeting (right after Fed hiking…)

Mar 16 – SNB meeting (to be watched as EURCHF is not behaving in a normal way)

Mar 16 – BoE meeting

Mar 17 – Merkel meeting Trump

Mar 17-18 – G20 FinMin meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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