Showing posts with label #Toshiba. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #Toshiba. Show all posts

Friday, 10 November 2017

Nov 10, 2017 - Market Update (US tax reform question mark, China to open financial markets/allow investments in companies, Trump with a promise of USD 250 bln deals with China, Brexit - Norther Ireland part of EU single market?, Cameco's 10% production cut a new bullish trend in uranium?, Monsanto not linked to cancer, 10-yr Bund yields saw a significant jump, DXY to close around key levels, Brent above key 62.00, than 60.00 USD/bbl)

Short recap

Asia in red
Europe opening lower


US tax reform – a potential delay in corporate tax rate cut to 2019 pushed stocks in US and Asian lower
Trump sees current account deficit with China not acceptable, happy with deals worth of USD 250 bln
But overall friendly remarks on both sides
China to open financial markets and allow foreign investments in financial companies
Trump not meeting Putin at APEC conference
Brexit – Northern Ireland part of single market and customs union according to EU internal papers
China to cut corporate tax rates for high tech companies

Equities

Toshiba planning to raise JPY 600 bln from new shares in a hunt for cash to avoid delisting
Burberry looking more at high-end offering but at what cost?
PSA Group moving fast with pushing its own technology to Opel
Cameco cutting 10% of its uranium production on low prices
Is it a turning point in uranium market after it has lost almost 70% since Fukushima (2011) ?
Allianz’s profit down 17%
Keystone XL having commercial back up
Monsanto not linked to cancer

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34% vs 2.33% yesterday
10-yr Bund yield at 0.37% vs 0.33% yesterday
Very significant jump in yields in Europe yesterday

DXY

US tax reform a question mark
Weekly close important as we sit above important levels
A continuation of inverted H&S or not?
Support 94.19 (23.6% Fibo), 94.05 (Aug 2016 low), 93.77 (100 DMA)
Resistance 94.62 (10 DMA), 96.03 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

Market is quiet waiting for a new inspiration from next week’s US data
Consolidating above 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1620 (200 HMA)
And below 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012
Expiring options (EUR 2.4 bln) with strikes between 1.1500/50

USDJPY

Quiet trading after not being able to break 114.50 few days ago on lacking US yield support
If we see the cross back above 114.00/25 you may consider rally continuation
But is has to be supported by US data next week
Otherwise if no pick up in 10-yr Trys yields towards 2.40% and above the return to 113.00 to come
Resistance at 113.76 (10 DMA), 114.40/50, 114.72
Support at 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Staying above 112.60 may help bulls (from Thu):


Oil

What’s driving the market?
Saudi Arabia and supply cuts vs strong demand
Rally from USD 42 to 57 was supported by shutdowns due to hurricanes and ongoing Saudi Arabia upheaval
Seems to be exhausted and well overdone
Growing US production will be proved by data soon
On top of that not abiding with production cuts from OPEC members to be visible too
Likely to push prices of oil lower going to year end

At the moment traders are hesitant to take profits as they are not sure
How the situation in Saudi Arabia will develop
Likely to take profits after few days of pausing
Brent/WTI spread should stay around USD 6 on transport constrains between Cushing and Gulf coast

Brent daily

Support levels 62.00 than 60.00


Source: Saxo Bank 

WTI daily


Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Mersch (1260 GMT)



Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Tuesday, 6 June 2017

June 6, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia in red on risk off as plenty of things going on this week
Europe opening lower


US election scandal going more public with DoJ accusing contractor about leaking top-secret documents
PIMCO neutral on Italy after offloading Italian bonds
Italy not leaving EZ but probability of things going wrong is high
UK readying for elections on Thursday amid security issues
China suggesting qualified firms to issue Panda bonds (denominated in CNY, issued by non-China issuer but sold in China)
China looking at expanding futures trading to foreigners

Equities

Lufthansa seeing higher traffic from US and Asia
Knock, knock…Siri from Apple coming to you home via HomePod speaker
GM-Greenlight Capital stock battle keeps going
Blackstone likes Scandinavia and wants to buy Finnish real estate Sponda (USD 2 bln)
GTCR and Carlyle working on buying Albany Molecular Research
Apple and Amazon to join Foxconn to buy chip business from Toshiba
In general, Europe and Japan still look attractive (valuation & flow)
Insurers like Swiss Life, followed by banks can benefit from hiking cycle

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.17%
10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%

DXY

Higher liquidity support the increase in FX reserves
Rising USD liquidity and excess of USD funding well supporting move to yielding assets despite Fed gradual tightening
Support at 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

US yields not supporting USD
Market keeps respecting 1.1300
But bids weakening towards 1.1284
Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Below 110.00 and 200 DMA (if we close below, the 108.12 is next)
Support 109.50-60 range (76.4% Fibo)
USD 1.3 bln options sitting between 108.90-109.00
In general, Japanese corporates find the range of 108.00-110.00 as a budget rate zone
What may add additional strength to JPY

Upcoming Data/Events

June 8 – ECB meeting – Draghi being alone but inflation data from US and JP suggesting ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus
ECB likely to adjust the risk to economy wording but no change to asset purchases
June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow
June 8 - Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)
June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – Jun hike probability at 95%, Sep at 28% and Dec at 40%. After Friday’s NFPs Sep hike may be skipped if data doesn’t come strong.

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece



Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Friday, 19 May 2017

May 19, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed on strong US data but political turmoil
Europe opening higher


Risk off only one day
China to normalize relations with South Korea
Brazil – after last year’s impeachment the new president Temer in the same shoes
ECB speakers defended the status quo, no clear path yet
Trump mess may push markets to reprice the risk
Trump visiting Saudi Arabia on Saturday, Aramco to sign business contracts
US job market keeps tightening
NAFTA talks to start in Aug
HF managers refocussing abroad as Trump trade fades

Equities

Bain Capital eyeing Toshiba
Deutsche Bank rebuilding reputation by asking former execs to participate financially at covering the bill they left for misconduct
Danone betting on synergies (WhiteWave) and cost cutting
Alibaba announced USD 6 bln buyback
Bombardier facing a probe on price dumping, action initiated by Boeing

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.24% (important 2.15% as an indicator of risk)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

Upcoming

ECB’s Praet (0900 GMT), Constancio (1200 GMT) speaking
Fed’s Bullard (1315 GMT), Willaims (1740 GMT) speaking

Iran presidential elections - impact on security and oil production
Raisi an orthodox cleric, promoting isolation
Rouhani globalist who negotiated the nuclear deal

May 24 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (1330 GMT)
May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting
June 8 – ECB meeting
June 8 – UK elections
June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)
June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike at 65%


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom