Sep 21, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC - market not a strong believer of Fed talk, EURUSD sitting at strong support 1.1870/80, Gold at crossroad between 1290-1300, UniCredit to buy Commerzbank, Apple slowing, Huawei, Oppo, Samsung speeding up, EU to redo taxation of digital world)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening higher

EU-CA free trade deal in effect starting today

EU to redo taxes on digital companies

Goldman Sachs expect USD 1 trln tax cuts (0.4% of GDP) over 10 yrs

FOMC – no change, rates 1.00-1.25%

Taper starting in Oct to get cushion for next crisis

Expecting 1 more hike this year, 3 hikes next year

Market pricing Dec hike at 66% vs pre-FOMC 46%

But market still not a strong believer in Dec hike yet

Fischer out, Yellen likely out next year want to make a point

Low inflation transitory but with question mark

BoJ – no policy change

Short term rates target at -0.1%

10-yr JGB yield target at 0%

Bond buying at JPY 80 trln annually

Who holds the most assets?

Fed 23% of GDP – on the way to trim

ECB 40% of GDP – Draghi was late to the QE party but did well

BoJ 60% of GDP – no signs of slowing…

Equities

Delphi & BlackBerry to work on self-driving cars software

Google eying HTC Corp (USD 1.1 bln)

UniCredit interested in merging with Commerzbank

New Apple watch experiencing connectivity issue

Apple slowing in innovation while Chinese rivals (Huawei & Oppo) growing on design and price

Amazon screening website for ingredients used to make bombs

Something different... Amazon is the New Tech Crash  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

EURUSD

Completed bearish outside day

Sitting slightly above the strong support zone 1.1870/80

Post-FOMC flows to show direction today

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Then 1.1837, 1.1823, 1.1808 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

If we see a consolidation 1.1600/1.1500 may be a target

Resistance at 1.1943 (10 DMA), 1.1966 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Fed moving, BoJ on hold makes bearish tone for JPY

Resistance around 112.60-70, stops above up to 113.00

Then 113.14 (23.6% Fibo)

Support found from 112.20 lower with bids starting at this level

112.31 (38.2% Fibo), 112.18 (200 DMA), descending trendline

Gold

USD and higher yields putting pressure

Rocket man and Barking dog providing support

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels

Data/events

ECB General Council meeting

ECB’s Praet (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1330 GMT)

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

July 18, 2017 - Market Update (Trump not able to deliver anything, EURUSD above 1.1500 but below 1.1600 ahead of ECB, 10-yr Trys yield positioning ahead of FOMC, Gold shorts to get squeezed?, UniCredit selling EUR 18 bln of bad loans, ETFs outflow to trigger next downturn, Citi in Frankfurt)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

After 2^nd Obamacare repeal vote failure

Doubts about ability of Trump administration to deliver anything on the rise

Markets getting more comfortable with Fed slowing its hiking pace and all USD negative Trump news

Since US elections S&P 500 is up 13.7% vs Gold being down 7.7%

Equities

Lufthansa rising profit target on higher summer bookings

UniCredit selling EUR 18 bln of bad loans to Fortress and Pimco

Citigroup picking Frankfurt as EU base for trading and sales after Brexit

Rio Tinto lowering iron ore shipment forecast due to weather and infrastructure upgrade

Cutting fees by BlackRock doesn’t help earnings and getting new cash

But watch the flows to ETFs and passive investments as they may trigger next market decline

FedEx warning about cyber attacks impact on earnings

Valeant close to selling Obagi (USD 190 mln)

Earnings

BofA – market is already prepared for lower trading earnings, so the cost cutting plans are a questions

Goldman Sachs – lower trading and investment banking volumes to make a print on results

Johnson & Johnson – Obamacare repeal, sales and benefits of Actelion acquisition (USD 30 bln) to be scrutinized

IBM – markets are more and more negative

Lockheed Martin – expecting better results as governments spend more money on defence, guidance for 2018 may bring more light

Harley-Davidson – not to impress on lower sales in US

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% - drop is likely positioning for upcoming FOMC next week

10-yr Bund yield at 0.58%

EURUSD

Obamacare repeal mess/failure creating strong reaction along with stops at 1.1500 pushing USD lower

But political stuff likely off the table soon as we head to ECB on Thu

Next resistance 1.1580, then 1.1615

Followed by 1.1714, 1.1750

Staying above 1.1600 is way overstretched, 1.1615 should hold ahead of ECB

USDJPY

JPY experienced strong buying across crosses

Bids may be sitting above 112.00

Expiring options around that level too

50/100/200 DMA at 111.84/78/84 very close

Resistance at 112.31 (38.2% Fibo) and 113.14 (23.6% Fibo)

Gold

Above 200 DMA at 1229, 1234 (76.4% Fibo)

If we see another move higher, shorts may get well squeezed

From macro perspective (US data), has a room to go higher

Rising trendline, 1245 (61.8% Fibo) and 50/100 DMAs (1248) acting as resistance

Data/Events

BoE’s Carney (1330 GMT)

Thu

ECB meeting – no change in policy

Dovish wording from may push traders to reassess their stance as EUR had a very nice run

And is hitting few important resistances

Very likely Draghi doesn’t want to repeat his hawkish speech from Sintra sending 10-yr Bund yield above 0.50% from around 0.25% level

Markets pricing a 10 bps hike of deposit rate (-0.4%) over the next year

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

May 11, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up on stock markets gains led by rising energy sector

Trump falling deeper into the election scandal orchestrated by Russians

An impeachment coming at certain point...?

Or at the best the tax and biz reforms being delayed…

Six Canadian banks downgraded on ongoing concerns about expanding levels of private-sector debt across the country

And not just situation in real estate

CAD caught in between rising commodity prices, bubbling housing and appreciating USD

Market very negative sentiment on CAD

Rosengren played hawkish yesterday with gradual reduction of balance sheet and 4 hikes this year

Draghi just repeated himself, didn’t please German hawks

As EZ economy is solid but it is too early to pull out the QE (EUR 2.3 bln)

Hinted some changes though

Equities

Standard Life to merge with Aberdeen Asset Management, cutting 10% of jobs

NYSE (after LSE) trying to charm Saudis to gain the Aramco IPO

Tesla open for solar roofs orders

Mylan not comfortable with FDA

AXA to float its shares of its US life insurance and asset management business in US

Looking to free some capital and refocus

Earnings

UniCredit doing better as restructuring pays off

Following the path of CH banks and dropping complex activities, simplifying and focusing on the core

NVDIA benefiting from data centers and automotive

Enbridge (CA) expected lower profit due to rising costs

Others to report: Macy’s, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, Teva Pharmaceuticals, Aegon, Wells-Fargo, Dow Chemical, Bombardier (CA), Magna (CA)

Bonds

2-yr Trys yield at 1.35% marching towards 1.40% level

10-yr Trys yield at 2.40% - 10-yr auction disappointed yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.44%

EURUSD – pivotal level 1.0850

Then 1.0825/30 area (21 & 200 DMA) – if broken, likely to see more downside

As longs may get nervous

Some selling interest towards 1.0900 area

USDJPY – some offers above 114.40, more towards 115.00

Next 115.50 and 118.60 highs may be in focus

Support around 114.00

Yields and risk on mood prevailing

Commodities

Oil supported by the fall in US inventories, slowing production/imports that resulted in heavy short covering

Goldman Sachs, IEA – accelerating decline in inventories, rising demand to be higher than supply

Support USD 47 (WTI) and USD 50 (Brent)

Gold on the way to 1200

But supported by North Korea and unpredictable Trump

Upcoming

Fed's Dudley speaking at 1025 GMT

ECB’s Draghi, Coeure at G7 Fin Mins at 1535 GMT

ECB’s Praet speaking at 1630 GMT

G7 Fin Mins & Central bankers meeting in Italy for three days

To discuss: trade, financial institutions coordination, fighting inequality and tax crime

Mnuchin to inform about changes in US taxes, Dodd-Frank, infrastructure investments and ease of biz regulations

Fri – US CPI and Fed's Evans speaking

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike above 90%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Feb 24, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian shares lower, hit by slide in material shares on falling copper, iron ore and other commodities

EZ risks still present, Japanese investors own 13% of French bonds

If the Le Pen headlines continue we may see more EURJPY downside

Trichet on global debt and DM crisis coming in 10-15 years  video (talking about debt from 13^th minute)

Pace of growth of DM debt slowed down but EM accelerating, especially China

Trump – Obamacare & tax reform this year (tax laws in Aug), infrastructure plan in 2018

Actually, he is getting a strong competition as he is not the only Champion in the room but China has become the Grand Champion…

Doesn’t really matter that in FX manipulation in this case

New top trading partner for Germany is China as US slipped to third day after France

US oil production rising, replacing OPEC cut deliveries in Asia

Bunds supported by reinvestments, US Trys up on lower expectations of March hike

Peugeot-Opel – Peugeot to implement its own small car platform across Opel models

Royal Bank of Canada expected to report better results supported by division of capital markets

Its US activities will be in focus due to lighter regulation

Advent International improving the offer for Stada (EUR 3.6 bln)

UniCredit EUR 13 bln shares issue almost fully subscribed

NY Fed primary dealers expecting Fed to move in May or eventually later

March hike at 36%

May or later at 78%

We saw a bit of hesitation in US stocks yesterday what may result in a correction before Mar 15 FOMC

If we it does it can be a good signal that market is ready for rate hike

EURUSD – just touching support at 1.0500 or is there anything else?

Critical 1.0515 (year open) and than 1.0460

If we manage to close below then we are ready for more downsize even lower towards parity

Range 1.0500/20 is the battleground

Gold – 1250 (61.8%) and 1260 (200 DMA)

Data

US: Consumer Sentiment – to decline a bit

US: New Home Sales – expecting a new impulse

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More