Oct 9, 2017 - Market Update (Quiet trading today unless..., Honeywell spinning off, Deutsche Borse working hard on moving euro clearing out of UK, JPM/Citi expecting lower trading revenues, BofA to benefit from cost cutting and expanding in retail, USDJPY - Peaking and may loose momentum as per daily chart/MACD)

Short recap

China in green after one week off

Europe in red

US/CA/JP markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving/Health-Sports day

US banks/Trys closed but stocks open

NFPs good on earnings, the rest is a question of interpretation (hurricanes, steady jobs growth…etc.)

But USD not taking any clues

Should have quiet trading unless Catalonia declares independence

Or Trump announces something out of ordinary on Iran nuclear deal

EU having two issues at political level – Catalonian independence and how to handle it

And the rise of populism in Italy ahead of next year’s elections

Still Brexit ongoing while German economy at full speed with French numbers getting better as well

Brexit – no deal planning underway on UK side

Deutsche Borse working hard on moving euro clearing out of UK

Equities

Honeywell planning spin offs to streamline the business

Tesla benefiting from Puerto Rico need to restore power

Airbus living turbulent times (investigation of corruption)

Boeing injected GBP 100 into Monarch Airlines

Automation companies to benefit another winner of Trump’s tax plan

Activist investors looking to unlock value of Canadian real estate market

Earnings season is back

Sentiment is strong, valuations highs

Thus companies must deliver to justify valuations

Reporting this week: BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan, Citigroup, BofA, Wells Fargo

JPM, Citi expecting lower trading revenues, BofA to benefit from cost cutting and expanding in retail

Wells Fargo – sales scandal/reputation issues still up in the air

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% - finished the week lower on NFPs

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46%

COT report (as of Tue last week)

EUR longs at 91k vs 88k previous week

JPY shorts at 85k vs 71k previous week

GBP longs at 20k vs 5k previous week

EURUSD

EZ growth ok, CH private investors buying more assets abroad without hedging, some legacy shorts to be still closed out thus dips an opportunity to establish longs for 1.2500 (Source: Morgan Stanley)

Resistance at 1.1750 (200 HMA), 1.1755 (10 DMA), 1.1780

Support at 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1714, 1.1699 (200 WMA)

 Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Peaking and may loose momentum as per daily chart/MACD

Resistance at 113.00, 113.25 followed by 113.57

Support at 112.62 (10 DMA), 111.89 (200 DMA)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Managed to jump off the lows around 1263

On potential new NoKo nuclear test and lower USD

Resistance at 1296 (50 DMA), 1299 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1279 (10 DMA), 1273 (100 DMA), strong at 1268 (38.2% Fibo of Dec-Sep rally), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/events

US/CA/JP markets closed

Oct 9-15 – IMF/WB meeting

Eurogroup meeting

ECB’s Mersch (0745 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1200 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (2030 GMT)

Tue

Fed’s Kashkari (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1200 GMT)

Wed

Fed’s Evans (0715 GMT)

FOMC Minutes

Fed’s Potter

Fed’s Bostic

Fed’s Williams (1440 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1450 GMT)

Thu

ECB’s Draghi (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1030 GMT)

Fed’s Brainard (1030 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1600 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1610 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Rosengren (0830 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1015 GMT)

Fed’s Evans (1025 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1130 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1300 GMT)

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 12, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly higher

Europe opening mixed

BoJ is passionate about 2% inflation in 2018

Trade barriers a dead end – comments from Fed’s Dudley

Fed officially commenting on Trump policies

US financial conditions keep easing, thus giving a green light to Fed for June rate hike

Fed just proved that it is very closely watching politics

As they moved their Nov meeting by one day from Tue/Wed to Wed/Thu (Nov 7/8)

Due to mid-term elections on Tue Nov 6

PBOC injected medium term liquidity to support the economy

While keeps tight grip on short term lending to curb speculations

UK politicians still not telling all to British public

May is getting ready for a hard Brexit

Equities

Uber is a transport service and not an app

What is a huge challenge with legal/licensing consequences for Uber in EU market

Rosneft having hard time to acquire Essar Oil (USD 12.9 bln) as company's creditors have the say

Vivendi to merge with Havas

Barclays’ investment bank arm looking to hire up to 100 new bankers as a part of reorganization

Wells Fargo very active in cost cutting but outlook stays not that convincing

Goldman Sachs launching a new dark pool for trading stocks

The private trading venue will be run by Nasdaq

Macy’s and Kohl’s weak earnings proving that the sector is struggling big times with online competition

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.38%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.43%

DXY – a bit mixed yesterday

But well above 200 DMA (99.17)

Support also at 99.26 (61.8% Fibo)

Rising trendline acting as a resistance now

Next is 101.00 (76.4% Fibo)

EURUSD

As yesterday the 1.0850 is pivotal

Followed by the 1.0825/30 area (21 & 200 DMA) – if broken, likely to see more downside

1^st round FR election gap is the next to watch

USDJPY

Next 115.00/50 and 118.60 highs may be in focus

Support at 113.76 (76.4% Fibo), 113.00 (100 DMA) and 113.09 (10 DMA)

Gold

Resistance at 1228 (100 DMA), 1230 (50% Fibo) and 1255 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 1204 (38.2% Fibo)

Upcoming

US: CPI

Core CPI m/m 0.2% exp vs -0.1% prior

Core CPI y/y 2.0% exp vs 2.0% prior

CPI m/m 0.2% exp vs -0.3% prior

CPI y/y 2.3% exp vs 2.4% prior

US : Retail sales

US : University of Michigan Index

Fed's Evans speaking 1300 GMT

Fed’s Harker speaking 1630 GMT

G7 Fin Mins & Central bankers meeting

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike above 90%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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Apr 13, 2017 - Market Update + Few thougths on Trump

Short recap

Asia lower

EU opening lower

Trump proved me wrong about non-event end of week

By the way, Trump not accusing China from currency manipulation anymore? Let’s call it a U-Turn…

Well, it is officially true from yesterday as he realized that it is him and not Chinese

Who is to be labelled as a currency manipulator when moving EURUSD to 1.0670 from below 1.0600

The move was based on his words about Fed keeping the rates low, USD getting strong and not flagging China as a currency manipulator

Also to remember that 40% of US debt is owned by foreigners

No surprise that Trump doesn’t want to mess up with them…that much

Don’t get confused by Trump’s rhetoric and focus on hard facts as Friday’s US CPI and Retail sales data are

As the stock market is closed on Good Friday, the reaction of bond market will be crucial for further direction of USD

US bonds close at noon local time

US: Headline CPI likely to edge up a bit despite lower oil but Core should stay in a focus of Fed (previous 2.2% y/y) anyway

Meanwhile Fed officials keep talking about staying on the track with rate hikes

And the start of reducing the balance sheet this year

US and Russia relations still below zero

While China is becoming a new friend of Trump especially on North Korea

A passenger of United Airlines taking the case legal

Global airliners should pay attention marketing wise

As overbooking, even legal, is a standard practice among many of them

Tesco’s corporate results above estimates as structural changes are paying off

Icahn via CVR Energy betting big on biofuels subsidies drop

Actually, started to do so before becoming an advisor to Trump

Some of Tesla’s investors pushing for adding independent directors to the Board

To balance Musk’s interests

Qualcomm paying USD 815 mln to BlackBerry over royalties

And keeps fighting Apple over chips

Volkswagen to build a new plant in US (USD 900 mln)

Bankers in Canada are doing well as CIBC is building a new HQ in Toronto for 15k employees

Earnings season

JPMorgan – expecting a raise in profit on better lending activity and activity in capital markets

Wells Fargo – expecting a small dip in profits due to legal costs

While should benefit from upcoming Trump’s easier regulation and higher interest rates

Citigroup – expecting a raise in profits as its global business is growing and higher activity in capital markets

10-yr Trys yield at 2.23%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.19%

Data

US: Initial Jobless Claims expected higher

US: University of Michigan Sentiment Index expected lower

Upcoming:

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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