Feb 17, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian stocks pausing

Samsung VP in custody over bribery, shares down only 1% as the company has good track record in coming back from troubles

Oil found support in talks about OPEC extending its production cut (now 6 month only)

ECB Minutes showing possibility of capital key adjustments what benefits peripherals a lot

French yields lower after seeing huge demand for 2028 bond issue yesterday

Trump at the end of his marketing cycle, starting campaigning again over the weekend

Ryan (speaker of the House of Representatives) having troubles to push tax reform to republicans

Trump at joint-session of Congress on Feb 28 presenting his agenda, looking at cutting corporate tax to 15% but Republicans resistant and open to 25% only as their fear of increasing the debt ceiling again what will have implications on US credit rating

No clear expectations of his agenda for now, either he disappoints or makes it

Allianz ready for buy backs worth of EUR 3 bln and adjusting budget for takeover activities

Deutsche Boerse – LSE acquisition process spiced up by allegation of DB CEO from insider trading

Snap IPO – owner of Snapchat to start investor roadshow on Monday, lowering target valuation of the company

Germany supports Peugeot-Citroen takeover of Opel/Vauxhall on no planned job cuts or factory closings

JP Morgan, BoAML, Citigroup proposing publicly to easy anti-money laundering rules as they are ineffective

Blackstone buying Cloudreach that is active in cloud computing business

OpenFin (financial software developer) raising USD 15 mln from JP Morgan, DRW Trading group (high-speed trading firm) and NEX Group (interdealer broker)

Saturday, US VP Mike Pence to reassure allies in Europe and polish the wording Trump is using towards NATO and Russia

Data

Feb 20 – EZ FinMin meeting on Greece

Feb 28 – Trump at Congress (US stock investors should get ready for a correction if Trump disappoints; on the other hand they are still likely to find a pro-growth solution)

Mar 15 – FOMC

Mar 17-18 – G10 FinMin and central bankers meeting (right after FOMC)

…the period between Fed 28-Mar 15 would be interesting as Trump believes in weaker USD

EURSEK – seems to be heavy after Riksbank not delivering

Waiting for CPI

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 15, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian markets up on Wall Street and Yellen

EU markets opening higher

SoftBank Group to buy Fortress Investment Group (USD 3.3 bln) as it is preparing to enter the private equity space

GM’s decision to put Opel/Vauxhall on sale is a turning point for the company as the company will exit the production in Europe

If talks with Peugeot-Citroen succeed the global auto map will be redesigned completely

CEOs of US retailers to discuss the border tax with Trump today

Studying Trump actions becoming a norm for professional investors (apart from fundamentals…etc.)

FinTech is venturing into M&A business of Goldman Sachs now after eliminating tons of trading jobs before

Momentum in financials seems to be firmly in place with Goldman Sachs reaching historic highs

But we may be getting a bit overstretched despite momentum

Trump’s New world is turning into New NATO and many European countries need to live up their 2% of GDP obligation

Thus seeing new opportunities on long side in: BAE, Leonardo, Lockheed, General Dynamics, Raytheon and Northrop

EZ peripheral yields falling down despite the ongoing clash between EZ and IMF over Greece

Greece not open to any further spending cuts; the situation may turn up badly at some point

Some US banks licensed to issue Panda bonds in China (inland)

USDJPY – levels 115.00 and 116.00 (cloud top)

EURUSD – 1.0566-1.0576/78

Yellen

Fed likely hiking on Mar 15 but need to watch job market and inflation expectations (probability at 34%)

3 hikes still in place for 2017 (prised at 50/50 for Dec); market is pricing 2 hikes

Waiting too long would be unwise

Trump policies are a big unknown/risk

Eventually, Fed can do pre-talk in March and hike on May meeting (despite no press conference)

Fed has an authority and responsibility to talk with global regulators

Data

UK: Labour Market Report – claimant count expected higher

US: Consumer Price Index – headline CPI to rise the most since 2012 while Core CPI expected slightly lower

US: Consumer Price Index – expected to slow down

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 21, 2016 - Why Trump, Putin and Erdogan are good for Europe?

Simply, because of the change. Europe needs to redefine itself in the field of:

-         Whether to continue with a closer cooperation or return some of the decision making powers back to national governments. We believe going back is not the smartest move as it would lead to fragmentation and loss of benefits of common market.

-          Security and military perspective – still growing threats from Russia and terrorism will lead to redefining and creation of EU army and closer police cooperation. All of that is also happening in the light of Donald Trump becoming the US president and questioning the role of NATO especially, in Eastern Europe.

-          Uncontrolled immigration and external borders protection – is the deal with Turkey really good for EU? The EU must have a full control of its borders as it is not possible for thousands of refugees to freely move across the continent. Also having a deal with the antidemocratic leader doesn’t bode well for democratic values.

-          Economic and international trade – well, as the EU is the largest market in the world as well as largest trading partner for China, definitely should benefit from it. It should also take advantage of its position on the back of likely upcoming protectionism from US side. Actually, the last week’s ASEAN meeting can be an interesting inspiration as Asian countries are open to closer cooperation without US. Why not to join such an initiative from EU side as well when Americans don’t want?

-          Increasing populism and nationalism in Europe – European public will have a unique chance to express their wishes in the upcoming referendum in Italy and elections in Austria, Netherlands, France, Germany, Czech Republic and Slovenia, and decide whether Europe should follow the path of irresponsible promises without accountability. The only thing EU needs right now is pragmatism and leadership what leads us to German elections and Sunday’s official announcement of Angela Merkel to run for a Chancellor again.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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(NEWS) Turkey - Market reaction (Update 1)

20/07/2016 - 21:22 GMT (Update 1)

Turkey is imposing a three-month state of emergency. Following the unsuccessful coup and ongoing persecution of citizens, the state of emergency is becoming the next level of escalating the situation. Unfortunately, the combination of getting closer ties with Russia, its geographical location close to conflict areas, NATO military base with nuclear weapons and cementing the power by Erdogan seems to be a pretty dangerous cocktail to many Western politicians’ taste.


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As a follow up on unfortunate events in Turkey over the last weekend, the reaction of the market was rather muted but rating agencies have started to express their worries. For example Moody's is reviewing country's rating with possibility of a cut or even moving it to Junk territory.

Overall, it is not just what has happened but also the weakening efforts to reform the economy with upcoming challenges at political, economical as well as security level.

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading       teams view on past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not and shouldn´t been viewed   as an investment advice and the creator of this material shouldn´t been hold liable for any loss resulting from       action where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this  material  as an investment advice. 

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