Nov 2, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC a non event, Powell in and Tax bill out, BoE hiking after 10 years & taking a long break after..., EURUSD a shadow of USDCNH, IMF not ok with selling volatility products, Apple a big thing after market, Barclays fed up with Brexit and taking actions, Deutsche Bank seeking a second building in Frankfurt)

Short recap

Asia printing new 10-yr high as on optimism from Fed

Europe opening lower

FOMC – no changes, non event

Just reconfirmed all with economic activity to solid from moderate

Dec hike a done deal

IMF warns volatility products loom as next big market shock  link

Selling volatility complex products can be the trigger if volatility suddenly increases

Equities

Barclays is fed up with how UK is handling Brexit

And implementing their own plan

Deutsche Bank to move more operations to Frankfurt

Herbalife off the Ackman’s short bet who turned to options instead

Signa Holding (owner of Karstadt) eying Kaufhof (owned by Hudson Bay) for USD 3.5 bln

Thanksgiving travels to help airliners

Novo Nordisk warning of US legislation (Trump’s anti industry rhetoric)

Earnings

Apple – should learn more about Christmas iPhone sales and iPhone X orders

Asia is impressed by iPhone X but are they going to actually buy/afford it?

Others reporting: Alibaba, Starbucks, AIG, DowDuPont, Cigna, BCE, Bombardier

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% below 2.40% as attempts to get above faded

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

EZ yield spreads contracting, namely IT to GE, ES to GE going to year end

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1640 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1670 (200 WMA), 1.1690 (10 DMA), 1.1695 (100 DMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1.1630 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1500

 Source: Saxo Bank

Is USDCNH telling Us something ? EURUSD bulls need to move above 1.1660 in order the daily H&S to be under pressure…

GBPUSD

BoE hiking after 10 years? One off to 0.50% from current 0.25%

And likely taking a long break after…

Hard to spot any levels of choice and Brexit mess is still ongoing

Support at 1.3222 (50 DMA), 1.3204 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 1.3336

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Got some support from Powell nomination

No clear reaction to FOMC’s no change, just a small advance as rate don’t go up immediately

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), descending trendline

Support at 1275 (10/100 DMA), 1263 (low & 61.8% Fibo)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Fed’s Powell (1230 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1620 GMT)

Republicans unveiling tax reform bill (1515 GMT)

Rumours on repatriation tax rate:

5% on non-cash

12% on cash

But no offsetting revenue yet

Possibility of a temporary nature of the tax cuts

Trump meeting House GOP leaders (1745 GMT)

Trump announcing a new Fed chair (1900 GMT)

Powell likely taking the Chair and Taylor his Deputy?

That would be a true shift after Yellen…

Powell good for stocks as we can see the continuity

But not much for USD

Fed’s Bostic (2215 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs

Payrolls +310k exp. vs -33k prior

Unemployment rate 4.2% exp. vs 4.2% prior

Hourly earnings 0.2% exp. vs 0.5% prior

Fed’s Kashkari (1615 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (2015 GMT)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Aug 7, 2017 - Market Update (DXY up from strong support, EURUSD correction shallow to 1.1700/1650, A look towards 1.2000 still on the cards, World CBs to reassess how aggressively hawkish they are, S&P sees Fed on hold ,3 hikes in 2018, Iron ore up 5.5% on China continuous stock piling, US stock options - already positioning for increased volatility, Glencore looking to buy into Rio Tinto's assets, UBS private banking with USD 2 trln of AUM)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

New sanctions against North Korea (supported by China/Russia as well)

UK ready to pay EUR 40 bln Brexit bill

S&P sees Fed on hold this year with 3 hikes in 2018

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting today/tomorrow

Iron ore up 5.5% on China continuous stock piling

Equities

Glencore stretching muscles and increasing offer (USD 2.7 bln) for Rio Tinto’s assets

Deutsche Bank dropping from the list of world’s top 15 private banks

Hit by heavy bill of USD 14 bln for MBS mis-selling

UBS staying at the top with more than USD 2 trln of AUM

Weak USD to keep supporting global stocks further

Elliott disclosed 6% stake in NXP Semiconductors

Likely to make NXP sale to Qualcomm more expensive (USD 38 bln)

US stock options – stocks at highs, volatility at lows…and some investors are already positioning for increased volatility

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27% vs 2.23% on Friday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.47% vs 0.45% on Friday

Higher yields are looming but market complacent

Central banks likely to be very cautious not to disturb the market

Funds stay long bonds, not looking to exit trades anytime soon

Recalling 2013 – still far from 3% yields, so visible action from funds yet

Vanguard and BlackRock not happy with bond traders being too complacent link 

Inflation in the U.S. bound to accelerate in matter of months

Bond traders are too complacent and TIPS ‘incredibly cheap’

COT report as of last Tue:

EUR longs at 83k vs 91k previously, cut by 8k

JPY shorts at 112k vs 121k previously, cut by 9k

GBP shorts at 29k vs 26k previously, increased by 3k

DXY

Jumped up from strong support zone (92.64 and 91.88)

NFPs may be seen as an excuse for correction in USD but US yields crucial

Fed expectations pivotal for further USD direction as well as policy direction of other central banks

As their more hawkish stance made their currencies to strengthen a lot versus USD

They are likely to reassess “how aggressively” they want to be hawkish

But it should support USD in a short term only unless political, tax and fiscal mess in US disappears

Have we already seen the top at EURUSD 1.1910 and bottom at USDJPY 109.84?

EURUSD

Shorts pared back some gains as US yields showed no change on market expectations of Fed policy

Support 1.1776 (200 WMA, last week closing below), 1.1772 (10 DMA)

Followed by 1.1723 (23.6% Fibo)

But the critical is the yield spread between Trys/Bunds

Not expecting a deep correction, likely 1.1700/1650 at this stage

Look towards 1.2000 still on the cards

USDJPY

Staying within a tight range

Bids placed from 110.00 up

Resistance 110.78 (10 DMA), 110.97 (61.8% Fibo) and Ichimoku turning line at 111.02

110.14 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline as support

Data/events

Mon

Fed’s Bullard (1545 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1725 GMT)

Thu

Fed’s Duddley (1400 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Kaplan (1340 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1530 GMT)

Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole

Draghi’s show up highly expected in the light of potential tapering

Any clues on EUR 60 bln monthly purchase being taken down o 40…or?

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 29 US debt ceiling deadline

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom 

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July 27, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC on summer vacation, playing safe, DXY close to support levels, EURUSD close to 200 WMA (1.1794), Gold/gold miners going higher? Heavy Deutsche Bank, Facebook enjoying the ride, Cameco - weak uranium price making heavy print)

Short recap

Asia up on dovish feeling Fed (stocks, bonds and commodities up)

Europe opening flat

ECB’s Nowotny – some room to reduce asset purchase from Jan 2018 but not stopping them

EU warned US over new sanctions against Russia as energy security is on the table

UK’s Rudd promised to keep access for EU workers

UK’s car industry production down 14% in June

US New home sales still growing but at a softer pace

FOMC – on summer vacation

Market feeling a dovish bias and lower likelihood of another 2017 hike

Balance sheet reduction to start relatively soon (market expecting announcement in Sep)

Repeated that inflation to rise to 2%

But admitted undershooting of 2% target

Equities

Daimler thinking about splitting some divisions

Third Point betting on Alibaba again as they see opportunities

No new sales of petrol/diesel cars in UK from 2040

Deutsche Bank to list its asset management arm but not before late 2018

Foxconn to build a new plant in US (3000 new jobs)

AGCO buying farm equipment division from Monsanto

Earnings

Samsung pretty comfortable with chip outlook, reported a record profits

Facebook doing well in mobile ads (up 50%), while strengthening its attraction as a social media

Amazon.com – to report better revenue supported by retail and cloud. Hungry a bit? What about the Whole Foods Market acquisition – any hints?

Procter & Gamble – organic sales should help the numbers

Celgene – investors are positive, would like to learn more on licensing deal with BeiGene

Cameco – results to be impacted by still ongoing fall in uranium prices. Market may also be interest in the progress/resolution of Tepco issue?

MasterCard – investors are positive

Intel – investors are positive by data center business will scrutinized

Twitter – market is expecting a decline in revenue on user growth stagnation

Deutsche Bank – investor worry about the results as the bank undergoes restructuring, Brexit and Trump Russian ties. All of that is also combined with ECB’s investigation of Qatar royal family and Chinese HNA who are bank’s largest shareholders.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28% (up)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.55% (down)

DXY

Offered tone, sentiment getting more bearish

As cautious Fed and political mess in Washington pressure USD

Close to support levels

EURUSD

Marching higher, no clear top yet, outside day reversal

Watching: 1.1750, 1.1794 (200 WMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo) and then 1.20/2200

Likely 1.1800 will be respected as ECB to turn dovish soon too

On falling inflation and missing wage growth

So the 1.1750 and 200 WMA may be seen as the top

Support of note 1.1615, then 1.1580

USDJPY

Pressured by lower US yields, long liquidate seen

Sitting on 111.00 with likely dip demand around 110.80

Option expiries between 111.00-111.30 (more than USD 1.7 bln)

Life insurers with lower interest in foreign bonds

Has some room to get and stay above 114.00 toward year end

Gold

Resistance at 1264 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Watch also ascending and descending trendlines

As it trades above 1250 (100 DMA) we may see opportunities from a long side

Not only in spot but also in gold mining stocks

On the back of low inflation, weak USD and Trump

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 30, 2017 - Market Update (Markets getting ahead of themselves, US Q1 GDP revised up, S&P - Fed to start taper in Sep, Bunds-Trys spread at 183 bps, Raiffeisen Bank having difficulties with IPO, Small techs smashed on low liquidity)

Short recap

Asian down on risk off flows from EU/US

Europe opening mixed

This week we witness lots of end of month, quarter and half a year flows/positions squaring

Market is ahead of itself based on reactions, valuations, low vols, complacency

China manufacturing up on good production/new orders

US Q1 GDP revised up on consumer spending

Well, never underestimate the consumption power of Americans as history proves

According to S&P Fed will start taper in Sep and rise rates one more time in 2017

Higher German inflation did not help USD yesterday

US trade deficit report not published yet as it is under review at White House

Can be released anytime…or tweeted…

Equities

Deutsche Bank defending bank privacy in Trump’s case

Raiffeisen Bank International having difficulties with IPO of its 15% stake in Polish lender

As profitability is questioned

Fox bidding for Sky to face hurdles

Gabriel Resources asking USD 4.4 bln in damages from Romania

Icahn backing a break up of AIG

Good results of stress tests opens the door for buybacks and dividend rises at US banks

What in turn pushes their shares higher

Techs on a roller coaster but NASDAQ likely to target 5300 area

Small techs smashed as they were first to go on their low liquidity

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% - reaching the Jan/Mar highs around 50 bps

Central banks in sort of harmony

But market is pricing the ECB rate hike well well in 2018

Bund-Trys spread keeps narrowing to 183 bps

EURUSD

Right below strong resistance from descending trendline and 1.1495 & 1.1615

If broken we can eventually get ready for a move towards 1.2000/1.2500

With first target at 1.1714 (1.1750)

Decent offers seen towards and above 1.1450

Still well bid on market perception of hawkish ECB, thus downside limited

But big option expiries around 1.1350-75 area (EUR 1.7 bln)

Support at 1.1400 and from options

USDJPY

Corrected despite higher US yields but yield spread as a driving force to stay

On position squaring flows, crosses were heavy too

In general the underlying theme is up, choppy, consolidating

But central banks comments still in the air

Offers ranging 112.00/15

Bids from 111.50

Support 111.93/79 (Ichimoku), 111.78 (100 DMA), 111.76 (10 DMA)  and then 111.53/50 (50 DMA)

Resistance 112.24 (61.8% Fibo), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)

Gold

Not doing well on a sell off in bonds and JPY

Resistance at 1245 (61.8% Fibo) and ascending trendline, then 1250 (100 DMA) and 1254 (50 DMA)

Support at 1234 (76.4% Fibo), 1233 (200 DMA)

Data/Events

ECB’s Lautenschlager (1130 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny

ECB’s Coeure (1200 GMT)

US trade deficit report can be released anytime

...or tweeted…

July 5 – FOMC minutes

July 6 – ECB Minutes

July 7 – US NFPs

July 7 – Fed to publish its semi-annual report on mon pol (1500 GMT)

July 7/8 – G20 meeting – Trump meeting Putin

July 12 – Yellen testifying before Congress (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 9, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening highe but correcting

Risk on or Risk off now?

ECB sees higher grow, lower inflation (2017-19), risks balanced

No further rate cuts but also no change in policy, no taper talk at all

Trump survived Comey’s testimony as nothing was revealed

North Korea playing with fire again

US labor market keeps shrinking

Equities

ECB’s very dovish stance to further support EZ equities (rates lower for longer)

ECB boosting peripheral assets on the back of some bubbles in the core

Especially peripheral financials to benefit

Deutsche Bank can not share information about Trump’s financial dealings/ties with Russia

Credit Suisse to say thank you 1.5k employees in London

Julius Bear hit by soccer bribery issue

EU banking to face consolidation as the weaker institutions (due to negative ECB rates)

Will be target by their stronger peers (case of Santander acquiring Banco Popular)

UK financials to suffer on elections outcome/Brexit talks

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.19% - slowly moving higher

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25% - slowly moving lower on very dovish ECB, no rush to tighten policy at all

UK yields moving higher on after election mess

DXY

Lately seen too much dovishness about FOMC what may change with Comey off the table

Support at 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo)

EURUSD

Very dovish ECB to keep pressure on EUR

But had no impact on EUR yesterday likely due to capital flows to EU assets

Mega-option expiries today to anchor-bracket (according to Reuters):

1.1100 E8.7 bln, 1.1150-60 2.64 bln, 1.1185 1 bln, 1.1200-10 1.56 bln

Also 1.1220-25 1.4 bln, 1.1250 4.07 bln, 1.1270-75 714 mln, 1.1300 1.17 bln

Resistance at 1.1200, 1.1227 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

Likely to focus on 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo) ahead of 1.1062 (50% Fibo) and 1.1009/00 level (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Heavy resistance at 110.47 (200 DMA), 110.50 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Decent support from options around 110.00 area (USD 2.38 bln expiring)

GBPUSD

Upside limited on election results and Brexit talks

Brexit talks are messy but after elections will be very messy

Putting further pressure along with a massive current account deficit on GBP

In other words 1.2500 and even 1.2000 can be reached easily

Support at 1.2688 (38.2% Fibo), 1.2618 (100 DMA) and 1.2576 (200 DMA)

…but getting the soft Brexit will be GBP positive

EURGBP

0.8850 in sight

Gold

Resistance at 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Support at 1255 (61.8% Fibo) and descending trendline

Upcoming Data/Events

ECB’s Linde (1030 GMT)

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – China PPI correlated to PCE, lower number having any implications for Fed next week?

Lower PPI means reflation trade is fading away

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 19, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed on strong US data but political turmoil

Europe opening higher

Risk off only one day

China to normalize relations with South Korea

Brazil – after last year’s impeachment the new president Temer in the same shoes

ECB speakers defended the status quo, no clear path yet

Trump mess may push markets to reprice the risk

Trump visiting Saudi Arabia on Saturday, Aramco to sign business contracts

US job market keeps tightening

NAFTA talks to start in Aug

HF managers refocussing abroad as Trump trade fades

Equities

Bain Capital eyeing Toshiba

Deutsche Bank rebuilding reputation by asking former execs to participate financially at covering the bill they left for misconduct

Danone betting on synergies (WhiteWave) and cost cutting

Alibaba announced USD 6 bln buyback

Bombardier facing a probe on price dumping, action initiated by Boeing

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.24% (important 2.15% as an indicator of risk)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

Upcoming

ECB’s Praet (0900 GMT), Constancio (1200 GMT) speaking

Fed’s Bullard (1315 GMT), Willaims (1740 GMT) speaking

Iran presidential elections - impact on security and oil production

Raisi an orthodox cleric, promoting isolation

Rouhani globalist who negotiated the nuclear deal

May 24 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (1330 GMT)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike at 65%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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Apr 28, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia – saw some profit taking after risk on week

Europe opening lower

ECB no change in monetary policy

Draghi had a good showing, inflation not a worry, economy doing better

(5-yr forward inflation swaps above 1.6% indicating ECB still undershooting its inflation target)

Taper and rate hikes not a question of a foreseeable future

What may put additional pressure on EURUSD and close the Sunday’s gap up

New healthcare vote delayed again

Trump’s new trade war target is South Korea (kind of blindness in between the North Korea tensions…)

US and China say that North Korea situation can escalate if talks fail

Equities

Stocks too rich or too cheap?

Hard to say as the enormous QE stimulus is still here and rates are not at normal levels

S&P 500 trades at 18 times 2018 forward PE

S&P/TSX at 18 times 2018 PE

Deutsche Bank surprised but revenues are falling and trading is short of US peers performance

UBS benefited from trading and investment banking activities

Earnings season

Alphabet (mobile ads and YouTube), Amazon (well positioned), Intel, Microsoft, Ford doing very well

Exxon – market is looking at substantial rise in profits on cost cutting

Chevron – expecting company to by back to profit on refining and cost cutting

Others to report today: Colgate-Palmolive, General Motors, Goodyear, Imperial Oil (CA), Cameco (CA)

Bonds

Yields lower on risk off

Europe’s corps in high demand, credit spreads very low

May be the time to look elsewhere for better yield

10-yr Trys yield at 2.29%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.30% (pretty nice jump in Bunds after Draghi yesterday)

EURUSD

Looking whether closing the week below Sunday’s open at 1.0889 (Reuters)

Support at 1.0850; 1.0834 (200 DMA) and 1.0820 (50% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.0933 (61.8% Fibo) and around 1.0950 (upper channel line)

1999 high at 1.0915

Options expiries and US GDP to drive the market

Data

EZ: Flash CPI – 1.8% exp. vs 1.5% prior; Core 1.0% exp. vs 0.7% prior

US: Advance GDP – expecting slowdown with 1.2% exp. vs 2.1% prior, but it is not alarming as it is a historical pattern. Important to watch business investments but here, we can eventually blame lacking Trump policies that create hesitation about capital investments

US: Chicago PMI

US: Uni of Michigan Sentiment index – looking higher

Fed speakers: Brainard (1715 GMT) and Harker (1830 GMT)

Upcoming

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round (Macron/Le Pen – 60/40)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 27, 2017 - Market Update + ECB

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening lower

BoJ – no change, outlook for econ up, CPI down

NAFTA to stay for now, I “admire” the respect of Trump for his partners

Trump’s tax reform out, if in place making a huge hole to federal budget

And making Fed to move faster

So far no inspiration for the market as it lacks the details and is very complex thing

No US Gov shutdown until Sep 30

New healthcare bill getting support

PBOC keeps reducing risk in financial system what is reflected in Shanghai Composite

Equities

US stocks didn’t hold gains after Tax reform announcement on fading momentum

With Home Capital Group in a need of USD 2 bln credit line

Something is going on in Canadian real estate

Airbus having a legal case

In love with Ducati? Likely on sale, just contact Volkswagen…

Earnings season

Twitter, Fiat-Chrysler surprised, strong results from BASF and Deutsche Bank

Alphabet – expecting higher revenue, would be interesting to see any comments on diversifying its advertising revenue over other areas (cloud…etc.)

Microsoft – expecting better results as company benefits from its cloud services

Amazon – expecting better results as it benefits from its market position but some risk of using cash are present

Intel – Mobileye acquisition to pay off but company is still having to fix the core

Others to report: Celgene, Ford, Dow Chemical, UPS, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Johnson Controls, AbbVie, Marathon Petroleum, GoPro…etc.

Bonds

US yields experiencing more positioning then reflecting the reality of strong data and Fed likely hiking again in June

10-yr Trys yield at 2.31%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.36%

EURUSD (daily)

Negative tone under 1.0970

Looking whether closing the week below Sunday open at 1.0889

Support at 1.0850 and 1.0835 (200 DMA)

FX options

EURUSD 1m ATM vols

Saw a massive sell off in vols after 1^st round of FR elections

RR favoring calls (from O/N to expiries covering 2^nd round of FR elections)

ECB today – O/N vols trading at 17% setting the expected spot moving range at 0.9%

Commodities

Gold – now supported by geopolitical risks (fading) only

Upcoming

Bundestag voting on Brexit

ECB meeting

Expecting quiet meeting, no surprise (FR elections in two weeks)

Draghi to defend the QE continuation with maybe a slower pace of bond buying in 2018 and the rate rise well into the future

Will need to talk down any taper speculation at an earlier stage despite EZ macro data

Would correspond to three year cycle as Fed had

To please the hawks likely a small wording adjustment at Jun 8 meeting

Inflation to stay low (oil prices), core still weak at 0.7% (likely to be still disappointing in 2017/18)

Draghi/officials will be very prudent after last experience with a bit more hawkish tone

Having a huge market impact, had to talk it down after

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round (Macron/Le Pen – 60/40)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 5, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher but very safe on Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday

While PMIs better

China back after holiday helping markets

Europe opening lower

BoJ reduced purchases of short term gov bonds (1-3 yr space)

Brexit – households planning to reduce spending

UK planning to abandon the clean energy commitments what may in turn make Brexit talks with EU harder

North Korea firing a missile ahead of Trump-Xi meeting…a smart decision?

Deutsche Bank lost few executives after bonus payout

ChemChina got another green light to buy Syngenta (USD 43 bln) after receiving US antitrust approval

EU to review the deal by Apr 18

Daimler-Bosch to partner in self-driving cars

A self driving Mercedes taxi a dream? Well, not anymore in the future…

Another victim from retail space vs e-commerce fight is Ralph Lauren closing its store on Fifth Avenue

S&P 500 getting cornered by descending trendline and 50 DMA

Trump-Xi meeting or US NFPs a catalyst?

Oil higher on tightening seen in the market

Iron futures up

Gold failed to break through resistance at 1257 (200 DMA) again and staying close though

Needs 10-yr yield to break below 2.30% or get some support from USDJPY falling below 110.00 level

Support at 1236, Resistances at 1257 than 1273, 1292

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.26%

Global yields higher on rising oil

Peripheral spreads unchanged after FR presidential debate

GE-FR spread at 65, not very changed yet

French bonds can see some bids today

FX implied volatility falling down pointing to markets desperately in need of catalyst

Likely the 2.30% level in US 10-yr Trys can serve as one or outcome of Trump-Xi meeting

If positive, USD may benefit

USDJPY – close to 109.50 level that may be a good entry for reversal

And move higher to attack the Dec/Jan highs around 118.00/50 range

Data

EZ: Composite PMI – no major revision expected

US: ADP Employment Report expected slightly lower

US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index expected slightly lower

FOMC Minutes – markets looking for any wording on balance sheet reduction

Thu:

ECB Draghi, Weidmann and Praet speaking (especially Draghi’s remarks on inflation will be closely watched)

ECB Minutes

Trump to meet Chinese president

Trump to use trade to wage on North Korea

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

Fred Williams, James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 29, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher but with caution

Trump revoking pro-climate regulations

…having fun of all those …exits….? Well, me too.

Grexit, Italexit, Frexit, Germanexit, Brexit…and now:

Scoxit – Scottish parliament said yes to second Scottish referendum

UK Gov will not negotiate about it, thus the vote is just symbolic in nature

Norther Ireland looking at joining Ireland to become a part of EU

Seems to have busy upcoming two years after UK triggering Art 50 today

May to speak at Parliament at 11:30 GMT

Formal Brexit announcement at 12:30 GMT at the latest

As at 12:45 GMT Tusk (EU Council President) holds a press conference

GBPUSD down on unofficial Brexit trigger (to 1.2378 from around 1.2600 yesterday)

Tusk to focus on negotiations terms first, the rest may follow

EURGBP – a sentiment test today as the official letter gets delivered

USD turning the corner primarily on Trys yields expectations, general sentiment what is also reflected in important USD pairs

To keep the momentum we need continuation of good data and attractive tax policy terms

Fischer (Fed) seeing two more hikes as right this year

10-yr Trys yield at 2.42%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.39%

Tesla – Chinese Tencent owning 5% shares what means a stable long-term relationship and fresh capital stream for Tesla

Roche Holding obtained an approval for multiple sclerosis drug from FDA

Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals obtained an approval for dermatitis drug from FDA

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank positive on S&P credit rating upgrade

On the back of a new law in Germany benefiting senior creditors

More and more bankers working for London based banks are getting nervous about what operations will be moved to EU

What in turn puts a pressure on the banks to keep the skilled and experienced employees from leaving

S&P 500 staying above 2350 support (next 2300)

But below the descending trendline

Valuations weighting on the market

Data

GE: Import Price Index – was up +0.7%

US: Pending Home Sales Index – to rise despite shortage of houses

Speakers:

Evans (1320 GMT)

Rosengren (1520 GMT)

Praet (1650 GMT)

Friday – EU issuing a statement on Brexit to define the guidelines

Apr 4 – EU making a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 20, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed after last week

EU markets opening lower

G20 take away:

Free trade short of support

Mnuchin to correct imbalances – but the simple message to US is: “Consume less, Save more”

End of globalization trends? Or end of US on globalization map?

Merkel and Abe showed strong support for free trade on Sunday (after G20)

G20 outcome is negative for stocks

FOMC feelings still present in the market

Positive on EU stocks (if French elections positive) but higher EUR is a risk

US stocks negative view, may be playing with put options going to Q2

Deutsche Bank to issue news shares worth of EUR bln as a part of strategy shift

Swiss Re to focus more on tailor made solutions to generate more profits out of the deals

Tesla raised USD 1.2 bln to fund its activities, especially Model 3 and battery production

The proof that investors are still interested to participate at Tesla story via shares or convertible notes

Sinopec close to buying refinery from Chevron in South Africa (USD 1 bln)

Bombardier still struggling to handle the deal with Toronto Transportation Agency worth of CAD 770 mln

Oil – speculative shorts double while longs were cut (COT report)

May be pointing to new weakening cycle in oil as US shale production keeps rising

Critical levels: WTI USD 51.15 and Brent USD 48

Gold – also experienced net long positioning cut by almost the half (COT report) going to FOMC last week

Risk to upside move higher on weaker USD, geopolitical risks and huge demand from India

Levels: 1238 (61.8% Fibo), then targeting last high at 1263

USD close to key support levels, trading below 100 DMA

DXY 99.26 (61.8% Fibo), H+S, descending support line around 98.90

Few Fed speakers this week with Yellen (Thu) can clarify the FOMC stance
Important event for USD will be Obamacare repeal vote on Thursday
If passed, likely USD supportive - a sign of Trump having support for his further policies

EURUSD not clearly ready to break 1.0800/50 on political risks ahead of French elections

But market keeps pricing out the risk of Le Pen win despite her advances in the polls

Security question back on the table after shooting at the airport in Paris

10-yr Trys yield at 2.49%, failed to break clearly 2.60% level again

Back to 2.30%-2.50/60% range

Bund yields rising at short end while longer end is unchanged

10 bps rise in EZ rates by Jan 2018 is already priced in

Visco (ECB) – rising rates and terminating QE can be closely linked

Data

EZ: Labour Cost Index – expected to go higher

US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – expected to go higher

France – election debate tonight

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 7, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher

EU markets mixed open

US deploying anti-missiles battery in South Korea

North Korea was likely targeting US bases in Japan yesterday

Markets finding Trump still loosing focus from economic topics, main message from US stock yesterday

Brexit – new debate about Brexit bill at 1100 GMT

Deutsche Bank CEO backing the EUR 8 bln shares offering

Shares may continue on negative starting today

Intesa SanPaolo selling stake in Allfunds (EUR 800 mln) to realize capital gain

Likely to have a positive spin over effect on other EU financials

PSA Group - Opel-Vauxhall deal worth of EUR 2.2 bln to challenge Volkswagen

Another round of consolidation and search for cost savings with Standard Life buying Aberdeen Asset Management (GBP 11 bln)

Real estate business is interesting as we still have very low interest rates what makes building and renovating attractive

TG Therapeutics up on leukemia drugs combination doing well in a study

Cameco (a uranium producer) looking at selling mines in US on a couple of years industry decline

Nobody expressed interest in buying Trump tower in Toronto as a part of debt holder claim sale

HFs eyeing bank stocks again after years of negative no interest

Gold – support at 1220 (Fibo 38.2%) and 1210 (50/100 DMA)

EURUSD 

Staying bearish short term

If you are bullish there is no advantage of buying in now

It may still move higher but we have ECB and NFPs this week

All can be again about 1.0500/15 range as last week

HFs back to USD longs on Fed hike

Having hike fully priced in their positioning

But please remember that Fed officials were preparing us for a rate hike cycle (3 hikes this year) and not for March hike as such

If all goes well they will hike three times and (may be) one hike can be even higher than 25 bps

A serious shift in ECB policy unlikely before Jan 2018

But may see the change in capital key what in turn would boost peripheral bonds

Base range levels: 1.0500 and 1.0800/50

1.0625/50 important on the way higher today

No major support until 1.0250

BONDS

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.34%

10-yr US Trys yield at 2.50% - still in a wait and see mode despite stock markets rallying and market expecting growth acceleration

A break of 2.60% would endorse the change

Data

EZ: Q4 GDP to stay steady at 0.4%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 6, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia in red on Fed rate hike prospects and slowing China

China working on reforms to reign in the debt load, put in place measures to contain future financial crisis and shift the export lead to consumer oriented economy

North Korea playing with fire again

German Private banking association don’t see the need for ultra-loose policy from ECB anymore

Oil lower on Russia production cut compliance

Trump verbally dumping MXN lower but is it really what he wants?

Weaker MXN means Mexico more competitive

Gold – net longs up 48% hitting 3-month high (COT)

Deutsche Bank selling EUR 8 bln of shares and stake in Asset management business

Need to strengthen position and increase the capital ratios

If sold at EUR 11.65 per share would bring the CET1 to 14.1%

A small surprised in dividend of EUR 0.19 while market not expecting anything

Peugeot-Citroen helped GM to exit from Europe by buying Opel-Vauxhall

OMV buying a share in Russian gas field (EUR 1.75 bln)

Yellen’s speech on Friday:

“A rate increase at next meeting "would likely be appropriate" if Fed determines that data on employment and inflation are continuing to move in line with expectations.”

Well a magic word “if”…

EURUSD and USDJPY – back to square one

Pace of rate hikes not expected to changed on Mar 15 even if Friday’s NFPs are strong

That’s why USD reaction on Fischer and Yellen muted

Do we really have more USD strength in store?

COT report – cutting USD long posit

EURUSD daily levels:

3^rd res 1.0789

2^nd res 1.0706

1^st res 1.0664

Pivot 1.0581

1^st sup 1.0539

2^nd sup 1.0456

3^rd sup 1.0414

USDJPY daily levels:

3^rd res 115.47

2^nd res 115.11

1^st res 114.53

Pivot 114.17

1^st sup 113.60

2^nd sup 113.23

3^rd sup 112.66

FX OPTIONS

EURUSD - Saw a massive selloff in the middle and longer end of the curve on Friday due to:

Le Pen losing ground, risk on in stocks, spot higher from 1.0500 despite Fed speakers and US data, and March hike already priced in

1w covering ECB and NFPs at 7.5 vol, what is the spot range of 110 pips

3m ATM down 0.9 vol to 9.35 level (3m covering FR elections)

BONDS – A heads up…

10 yr Trys yield at 2.47%

10 yr Bunds yield at 0.35%

A bit of divergence (more than 200 bps) between 10 yr Trys and Bunds

Is the market really reflecting the reality of rise in price and economy growth in EZ that way?

More reasonable level for Bunds yield would be around 1% than 0.35% now

Just imagine the shift if it materializes

ECB – QE and wording on inflation/growth crucial

As the political risks in EZ are fading away (Le Pen)

Data

The whole week will be about the below. Today we have EU Summit but no major headlines expected.

Thu:

ECB – expecting just some verbal tweaks on QE, bond buying, may be reshuffle of maturities…etc.

Markets will be searching for any hints on change in the position on rise in prices and growth

No major change expected despite Buba seeing world differently

Fri:

US NFPs – headline figure, unemployment rate and Average hourly earnings will be watched

Earnings is the number to look at if no bad surprise in headline

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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