Short recap
Asian down on risk off flows from EU/US
Europe opening mixed
This week we witness lots of end of month, quarter and
half a year flows/positions squaring
Market is ahead of itself based on reactions,
valuations, low vols, complacency
China manufacturing up on good production/new orders
US Q1 GDP revised up on consumer spending
Well, never underestimate the consumption power of
Americans as history proves
According to S&P Fed will start taper in Sep
and rise rates one more time in 2017
Higher German inflation did not help USD yesterday
US trade deficit report not published yet as it is
under review at White House
Can be released anytime…or tweeted…
Equities
Deutsche Bank defending bank privacy in Trump’s
case
Raiffeisen Bank International having difficulties
with IPO of its 15% stake in Polish lender
As profitability is questioned
Fox bidding for Sky to face hurdles
Gabriel Resources asking USD 4.4 bln in damages
from Romania
Icahn backing a break up of AIG
Good results of stress tests opens the door for buybacks
and dividend rises at US banks
What in turn pushes their shares higher
Techs on a roller coaster but NASDAQ likely
to target 5300 area
Small techs smashed as they were first to go on
their low liquidity
Bonds
10-yr Trys yield at 2.28%
10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% - reaching the Jan/Mar highs
around 50 bps
Central banks in sort of harmony
But market is pricing the ECB rate hike well well in 2018
Bund-Trys spread keeps narrowing to 183 bps
EURUSD
Right below strong resistance from descending trendline
and 1.1495 & 1.1615
If broken we can eventually get ready for a move towards
1.2000/1.2500
With first target at 1.1714 (1.1750)
Decent offers seen towards and above 1.1450
Still well bid on market perception of hawkish ECB, thus
downside limited
But big option expiries around 1.1350-75 area (EUR 1.7
bln)
Support at 1.1400 and from options
USDJPY
Corrected despite higher US yields but yield spread as a
driving force to stay
On position squaring flows, crosses were heavy too
In general the underlying theme is up, choppy,
consolidating
But central banks comments still in the air
Offers ranging 112.00/15
Bids from 111.50
Support 111.93/79 (Ichimoku), 111.78 (100 DMA), 111.76
(10 DMA) and then 111.53/50 (50 DMA)
Resistance 112.24 (61.8% Fibo), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)
Gold
Not doing well on a sell off in bonds and JPY
Resistance at 1245 (61.8% Fibo) and ascending trendline,
then 1250 (100 DMA) and 1254 (50 DMA)
Support at 1234 (76.4% Fibo), 1233 (200 DMA)
Data/Events
ECB’s
Lautenschlager (1130 GMT)
ECB’s Nowotny
ECB’s Coeure (1200
GMT)
US trade deficit
report can be released anytime
...or tweeted…
July 5 – FOMC
minutes
July 6 – ECB
Minutes
July 7 – US NFPs
July 7 – Fed to
publish its semi-annual report on mon pol (1500 GMT)
July 7/8 – G20
meeting – Trump meeting Putin
July 12 – Yellen
testifying before Congress (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)
July 20 – ECB
meeting
July 26 – FOMC
meeting
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where
despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment
advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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