May 5, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower on commodities losing the ground on worries about the global growth

Europe opening lower

DAX printing new historical high

Praet pushed EURUSD higher with ECB guidance shift to focus on data

House approved new healthcare bill

Now it is heading to Senate where it will face a strong opposition

EZ to grant a relief on Greek debt but reforms first

Equities

Ferrari driving super high

Having the room to go even higher among luxurious brands based on fundamentals?

Johnson & Johnson to pay USD 110 mln in cancer dispute

CIBC making offer for PrivateBancorp better (USD 4.9 bln)

Earnings season,

Berskshire Hathaway reporting, the annual shareholders meeting to follow

Bonds

Bond markets pricing in Macron’s win

FR-GE spread down to 44 bps

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35% - substantial rise on June hike expectations

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

EURUSD higher ahead of French elections

Move in EUR, not USD

Strong resistance at 1.1020 (descending trendline on daily chart)

But USD strength can come from much better headline NFPs or earnings rising more than +0.3%

Eventually, the rising peripheral spreads

Data

US: NFPs – market not expecting any surprise based on strong ADP

Full focus on earnings growth given the full employment

Headline +185k exp. vs +98k prior

Unemployment rate 4.6% exp. vs 4.5% prior

Average hourly earnings +0.3% exp. vs +0.2% prior

Fed speakers (GMT):

Fischer 15:30

Williams 16:45

Yellen, Evans, Rosengren, Bullard 17:30

Upcoming

Sunday – French presidential elections 2^nd round (Macron/Le Pen – 60/40)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

   

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Mar 1, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

JP higher on weaker JPY, rest of Asia mixed

EU opened higher

US indices didn’t keep the gains on Trump disappointment as he was short of details about his plans on tax overhaul and infrastructure

Open to immigration reform deviating from campaign rhetoric

Top US and CN officials discussed trade and economy

US growth slowed a bit but consumer spending strong

US PCE, next week NFPs and few Fed speakers left – crucial for March hike

Brexit – banks will have 12-18 months for transition

Will see how it goes as they push for 5 year period

Fiat Chrysler facing diesel emissions allegations on some models

Volkswagen paid USD 2.9 bln to buy back 138k diesel cars in US

EU Commission more flexible on changes in Telecom sector

Apple doing marketing with USD 50 bln paid last year to US based suppliers (like 3M, Corning…etc.)

Stocks trading at record highs on new iPhone expectations

Salesforce.com revenue up 27%

Opel-Peugeot – GM searching for opportunities, not mentioning sale of Opel

TransCanada withdrew its legal case against US over stopping Keystone XL (USD 15 bln)

Valeant looking at further revenue decline in 2017 amid competition. The company is still struggling under enormous debt burden, likely the sales of non-core assets may not be sufficient.

US banks with record profits last year

Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab lowering trade commissions to zero

Another war in brokerage field boiling?

10 yr US Trys yield at 2.42%

10 yr Bund yield at 0.21%

USD supported by rising Mar 15 hike expectations not the Trump talk

Now at 78% above 70-75% for Fed to move

Other sources say 65/70%

Fed Williams March hike “up for serious consideration”

Room to go: 

DXY towards 102.00/12 (high from Nov)

10 yr US Trys yield towards 2.52% (range 2.30/2.52%)

If DXY moves higher, stocks should have the room too

Fed hike can be further catalysator

Will see whether further US data and remaining Fed speakers will seal the deal

EURUSD – as mentioned before the 1.0500-20 level a battleground

USDJPY – 115.00 and Ichimoku ahead of us

Data

Wed:

UK: Manufacturing PMI – expected slightly higher (close to three year high)

US: PCE inflation expected at 1.7%, hitting of 1.8% or above will be a strong signal for Fed to move in March

US: Consumer spending – expecting 0.3% increase

US: Personal income – expecting 0.3% higher

ISM Manufacturing – expecting no change

Fed’s Kaplan, Brainard speaking

Beige Book

Thu:

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri:

US: ISM Non-manufacturing activity index – expecting no change

US: NFPs only next week on Mar 10

Fed’s Yellen, Evans, Lacker, Powell, Fisher speaking

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime. 

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 28, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up on Wall Street and month-end flows

EU trading mixed

Trump met with Chinese official to talk about security and meeting with CN president

Abe/Kuroda – will keep stimulus in place

Some EU firms not able to repatriate profits from China (unconfirmed rumour)

But PBOC confirmed that companies use standard channels to do so

Saudis looking at crude oil around USD 60 level this year

Oil supported by OPEC cuts despite higher US production

But WTI may test 52.70 as the market can not break through 55.00

Banks refraining from commenting the political developments in order to avoid being biased

Fed’s Kaplan sent a strong message yesterday on rate hike (Mar 15 now priced at 50%)

Would need to have the same strong rhetoric from Yellen and Fisher as well

But FOMC may pre-confirm the May hike in March instead of rising rate

GE-FR spread contracts to 66 bps from 79 bps on Macron

Still some politics around new Scottish referendum

USDJPY

Likely range of 110-115 as a first reaction to Trump surprise good or bad

But all comes back to 10 yr US Trys yield

Data

Tue:

2^nd estimate of US GDP expecting at 2.1% vs 1.9% last month

US: House prices – expecting at 5.3%

US: Consumer confidence – expecting no change

Fed’s Williams, Bullard speaking

Trump speaking (1100) – recorded interview on Fox to be released

Trump at joint session of Congress (0200-0330 Wed morning)

Likely to express opinions and plans closer to Congress way of thinking in order to get his plans through

If not, would need to fight with Congress to get them approved

Will touch taxes and infrastructure but more details on taxes on Mar 13-14 as a part of the budget

During the speech to watch the reaction of 10 yr Trys yield (currently 2.36%) as the rest of the market will just follow

Support levels: 2.30%, 2.15% and 2.00%
Resistance at 2.52%

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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